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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,401
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:56pm Jun 18, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Could be short squeeze on Bears on AU and NU Have to give it time.I've seen spikes like these before
But never underestimate the greed of these bastards investing in currencies with high hike rates ... the upmove after everyone thought it would break down was impressive.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,402
  • Edited 3:15pm Jun 18, 2014 3:00pm | Edited 3:15pm
I'd exited all trades except long gold before the U.S. session open. I had company so couldn't enter new trades at sensible levels once the Q&A was over and it was clear USD was going down despite the USD Index failing to break lower (or higher -- rather surprised it remained within the recent consolidation range, actually). I'm now waiting for pull backs (never chase the price) that are starting to materialize now and will hopefully continue into the Asian session as I don't care to enter trades this close to the U.S. session close. [update: So much for pull backs -- all USD-based pairs are continuing to power on, no doubt right to the end of the session.]

Davit, I think you may have been a bit premature shorting the NZD/USD. Pending NZD GDP in three hours (I don't care to trade a currency right before a major data release) I expect to be targeting prior highs given the current technical setup now that the Kiwi has handily cleared 0.87. Are you certain you aren't letting your one loss versus your winning streak influence you in this case?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,403
  • Jun 18, 2014 3:19pm Jun 18, 2014 3:19pm
Have to admit, NU is right at my line in the sand here 8743. No let up in sight at all yet. Maybe time to let go for me.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,404
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:07pm Jun 18, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting KADC
I'd exited all trades except long gold before the U.S. session open. I had company so couldn't enter new trades at sensible levels once the Q&A was over and it was clear USD was going down despite the USD Index failing to break lower (or higher -- rather surprised it remained within the recent consolidation range, actually). I'm now waiting for pull backs (never chase the price) that are starting to materialize now and will hopefully continue into the Asian session as I don't care to enter trades this close to the U.S. session close. [update: So...
Hi KADC
NU last High was 8777 then it plunged down hard
To me its worth my risk tolerance to see if it will challenge that high or plunged down from current level.
I am confident NZ fundamentals can't sustain high currency.
Last 15years only time NU hit 88 was in 2011 so I am not worried about my shorts but don't like the negative swap.
I have been scalping on side for swap money
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,405
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:45am Jun 19, 2014 12:45am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi KADC NU last High was 8777 then it plunged down hard To me its worth my risk tolerance to see if it will challenge that high or plunged down from current level. I am confident NZ fundamentals can't sustain high currency. Last 15years only time NU hit 88 was in 2011 so I am not worried about my shorts but don't like the negative swap. I have been scalping on side for swap money
Fair enough, but I'm more comfortable waiting for an actual policy shift announcement to indicate a directional shift based on fundamentals. Until the Kiwi either drops below 0.87 or hits higher price targets I'm going to remain bullish.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,406
  • Jun 19, 2014 2:19am Jun 19, 2014 2:19am
Good morning amigos

Here's what I see on NU as possible turning point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #1,407
  • Jun 19, 2014 3:07am Jun 19, 2014 3:07am
Quoting Lalu
Good morning amigos Here's what I see on NU as possible turning point. {image}
Yes everything looks "right to short"
Just that fundamentals are against it after Feds lame outlook and NZ expecting another .25raise in July
I don't understand the thought process of keep raising interest rates in stagnated world economies.
We could see historical highs.Sadly average NZ resident is going to get killed in housing mortgages.
I am short and I am not happy with the situation.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,408
  • Jun 19, 2014 3:21am Jun 19, 2014 3:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Yes everything looks "right to short" Just that fundamentals are against it after Feds lame outlook and NZ expecting another .25raise in July I don't understand the thought process of keep raising interest rates in stagnated world economies. We could see historical highs.Sadly average NZ resident is going to get killed in housing mortgages. I am short and I am not happy with the situation.
Recent action has cast a shadow on my trade ideas, rightly or wrongly it's certainly so. I'm inclined to let nu go if it breaks recent high now and focus attention on gu.
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #1,409
  • Jun 19, 2014 4:49am Jun 19, 2014 4:49am
I try to counterbalance the neg. swap at my NZDUSD Shorts ~0.8727 with several AUDCHF & CADCHF Longs.
0.88 could be the next trail station for executing additively some shorts again.
FXcube
  • #1,410
  • Edited Jun 20, 2014 3:48am Jun 19, 2014 11:37pm | Edited Jun 20, 2014 3:48am
Quoting Forexcube
I try to counterbalance the neg. swap at my NZDUSD Shorts ~0.8727 with several AUDCHF & CADCHF Longs. 0.88 could be the next trail station for executing additively some shorts again. FXcube
Nice recovery of account Cube.Good ideas on swap.
Green pips

Short G/CHF at 5253 2x
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,411
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:25pm Jun 20, 2014 12:25pm
Short G/CHF at 5253 2x
closed at 39+22pips

DD highest 16% now down to 7%
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,412
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:33pm Jun 20, 2014 12:33pm
short CaD/JPY 2x 94.95
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,413
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:42pm Jun 20, 2014 12:42pm
Dear Davit,
Thanks for sharing as usual. I entered same short after watching this.

Also I entered LONG USDCAD
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.......
  • #1,414
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:48pm Jun 20, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting azfarjaved
Dear Davit, Thanks for sharing as usual. I entered same short after watching this. Also I entered LONG USDCAD{image}.......
I am watching this because lot of fundemetal news was very positive for CaD
It could shift trend on bigger scale.Be ready to get out if it continues to drop on U/C
Just saw your SL

Between USD and Yen I thought buying Yen was better option.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,415
  • Jun 20, 2014 1:18pm Jun 20, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting Davit
Short G/CHF at 5253 2x closed at 39+22pips DD highest 16% now down to 7%
16 % DD is still low risk. But everything more than 20 - 25 % makes me uncomfortable.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,416
  • Jun 20, 2014 1:27pm Jun 20, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} 16 % DD is still low risk. But everything more than 20 - 25 % makes me uncomfortable.
Got AU 6 orders TP 9350 anticipate next week to hit.
I trade small for that reason.I have choice larger lot with tight SL (loser option) or smaller lots without hard SL
I went with latter.
For me its about % of equity growth.I should finish this month positive
Regards bro
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,417
  • Jun 20, 2014 1:58pm Jun 20, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Got AU 6 orders TP 9350 anticipate next week to hit. I trade small for that reason.I have choice larger lot with tight SL (loser option) or smaller lots without hard SL I went with latter. For me its about % of equity growth.I should finish this month positive Regards bro
It is all about small trading. When I started out, I got bored after a while: So little profits for all that staring at charts and thinking? Then of course, against better knowledge: Higher leverage ... Oh, nice profit ... let us do some more. Oh damn, this is a nasty draw down ... managed it somehow, more profits. Oh nice, I can make nice profits! Let's go on! Oh this draw down is looking nasty ... damn ... have to cut some losers. Now looking ok ... Oooooooh!!! That position was a bit too big. Should concentrate. Oh oh ... draw down is getting serious. Cannot hold on to this - half account lost. And so on. Been there, done that. Funny is, everybody reads about that BEFORE it happens. And I consider myself not the dumbest person in the world, if yet not a genius maybe.

So then again the only thing that probably makes sense: Trading small. If I manage that, I can save for a bigger account and the profits will have a reasonable size, but before that I will only smash small change, because I still make too many mistakes - like hedging some positions which is something that is really not my cup of tea plus nonsense with a small account.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,418
  • Jun 20, 2014 2:11pm Jun 20, 2014 2:11pm
Hi

I also am short on AUD USD from 0.9425 TP set to 0.9345

Hope they all hit TP next week

Have a great weekend

Bye Davit
  • #1,419
  • Jun 21, 2014 8:30am Jun 21, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Feefee
Hi I also am short on AUD USD from 0.9425 TP set to 0.9345 Hope they all hit TP next week Have a great weekend Bye Davit
next week should be interesting.
green pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,420
  • Jun 21, 2014 8:39am Jun 21, 2014 8:39am
I spend usually weekend going over my trading identifying errors and on trading education.

When trading BB system its important to recognize market sentiment
For Example market sentiment is Bearish on Euro and knowing this it helps gauging our profit targets.If doing counter trend recognize in bearish euro sentiment
your risk is greater buying the Euro then Selling the euro.Knowing this if you buy the Euro from deviation2-3 and price is going your way watch 20 MA middle BB for possible exit.This is important because remember sentiment is Bearish.You got 50-100pips out of your trade don't get greedy exit and look for another opertunity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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