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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #441
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:49am Jun 18, 2014 4:49am
Quoting Vantage
Clive was your dad from Yorkshire by any chance?
Good morning Mr V

Glad to see you're still around, hopefully I will turn things around soon.

Nope my Dad was from good old "Sussex By The Sea" , you know one of those old "southern softies" as you northern types like to call us.

Guess you're a one of those "Hard Bastards" from up north????

Always knocking each other out at the drop of a hat!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #442
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:51am Jun 18, 2014 4:51am
Oh Oh!!!! Going down??? market must of thought I bought it heh????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #443
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:10am Jun 18, 2014 5:10am
Really haven't been concentrating this morning, not good, system trade from what I can see cci 210 -100, retrace cci 14 to +100, abc and a sell around 173.24.

The right trades per system are there just need to show a little patience.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #444
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:10am Jun 18, 2014 5:10am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} No not quite, very much a kind of person. And hard bastards up north have nothing on locals here in SA where I've been for the last 34 years.
Oh sorry didn't mean anything by accusing you of being one of those "northerners", so SA for last 34 years and where did you originate from???

Ooops looks like we are going down today then,

Hmmm bit surprised by that maybe they were expecting a bit more interest rate incresing warcry???Didn't get it so down we go!!!!

Gonna wait for first pullback to this break level before selling, still finding it hard to sell this for some mad reason???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #445
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:18am Jun 18, 2014 5:18am
This is not really a system trade its more a post news trade even though its not really a high differential or anything. Its more because I think Londoners want to buy the GBP and this little dip has given them an opportunity to join the GBP trend at a discount price. Mind you it does look very bearish right now and does line up for a sell entry nicely just struggle with selling this on fundamentals??

It is a system sell trade as below MAs 15min over -100 level and waiting for a +100 cci on 1 min CCI, BUT and its a BIG BUT for me, its against some fundamentally strong news last Friday!!

Oh well lets see how it develops really want a clear AB leg down before contemplating a sell entry.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #446
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:22am Jun 18, 2014 5:22am
Quoting clivepackham
This is not really a system trade its more a post news trade even though its not really a high differential or anything. Its more because I think Londoners want to buy the GBP and this little dip has given them an opportunity to join the GBP trend at a discount price. Mind you it does look very bearish right now and does line up for a sell entry nicely just struggle with selling this on fundamentals?? It is a system sell trade as below MAs 15min over -100 level and waiting for a +100 cci on 1 min CCI, BUT and its a BIG BUT for me, its against some...
Yep thats it before I sell this I have to see a very clear AB move down then a clean pullback BC to the breakout level and hey ho away we go, but I'm not selling until I get that clear move down and clean pullback to the break.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #447
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:30am Jun 18, 2014 5:30am
I am having problems selling this my mind just doesn't like it as we have had a strong GBP for last month, plus really good news eg possible interest rate hike shortly.

So heres my concern?? What reason has this got to go down????

Hmmm now if I was a cynic I might suggest the only reason it will go down is that the London professional traders and probably the New Yorkers too work for big bonuses and the end of June is end of half year so Bonus time. Now whats been happening to GBP last 6 months yep its been going up, now they won't make thier bonuses unless they "Bank" thier profits.

What does banking involve if you've been buying for 6 months, yep gotta sell haven't they to get that new shiny Porshe!!

Couldn't be that simple could it????

Surely they wouldn't would they???

Just not "British Old Chap!!"
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #448
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:36am Jun 18, 2014 5:36am
I have cm showing gbp weak chf strongest. Another system trade. OK not the biggest runs the world has ever seen but just making the point again that the system trades come through. Don't need to force the issue just being patient.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfm1.png Size: 29 KB
  • #449
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:39am Jun 18, 2014 5:39am
Quoting Vantage
I have cm showing gbp weak chf strongest. Another system trade. OK not the biggest runs the world has ever seen but just making the point again that the system trades come through. Don't need to force the issue just being patient. {image}
Great trade Mr V,

Where did you get in and are you still holding as this GBP looks very Bid right now could go down a long way from here.

How much are brand new Porches nowadays????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #450
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:45am Jun 18, 2014 5:45am
Quoting Vantage
I have cm showing gbp weak chf strongest. Another system trade. OK not the biggest runs the world has ever seen but just making the point again that the system trades come through. Don't need to force the issue just being patient. {image}
Thats another example too of trading what you see not what you believe isn't it??

Whilst I was dreaming of what might happen and how the daily trend is up on GBP pairs you sneak in under the radar and take whats on offer!!

See told you those longer timeframes aren't any good for 1 min traders!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #451
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:49am Jun 18, 2014 5:49am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Great trade Mr V, Where did you get in and are you still holding as this GBP looks very Bid right now could go down a long way from here. How much are brand new Porches nowadays????
No haven't traded these, still watching. Just making the point that system trades are there, don't have to force things. Entries should have been around 5224 (retrace to +100 + ha turned red) or 5216 (200+ retrace on cci scale and ha turned red again).
  • #452
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:54am Jun 18, 2014 5:54am
All the trades posted have what I am looking for:

- cci 210 hits either +100, or -100, then
- angle and or separation on ma's
- price above or below ma's
- cci 14 retraces to +100 or -100 or has 200 move on cci scale
- abc
- CM agreeing on strength/weakness
  • #453
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:58am Jun 18, 2014 5:58am
Quoting Vantage
I have cm showing gbp weak chf strongest. Another system trade. OK not the biggest runs the world has ever seen but just making the point again that the system trades come through. Don't need to force the issue just being patient. {image}
This of course is very interesting that you have an immediate strongest/weakest indy thats showing you GBP weakest CHF strongest as my Daily strongest/weakest is the exact same but opposite GBP strong CHF weak so this is definately setting up for a NYO reversal back with the Daily strongest/weakest also like you said the down move was weak, not I guess driven by bank traders??

No becos they are sitting there waiting to buy back into daily trend at a discount level, now what level would you be sitting at waiting to pounce????

Thats assuming of course they are looking after thier clients money properly, looking for opportunities to buy low, sell high so investing it wisely.

But that Porshe is nice and big and ohhh so shiny!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #454
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:09am Jun 18, 2014 6:09am
Quoting Vantage
All the trades posted have what I am looking for: - cci 210 hits either +100, or -100, then - angle and or separation on ma's - price above or below ma's - cci 14 retraces to +100 or -100 or has 200 move on cci scale - abc - CM agreeing on strength/weakness
Yep don't worry, I hear you.

Guess I'm just trying to apply a bit of fundamental analysis as to which way is the best way to trade GBP at the moment up or down??? Looking for the higher probability longer run as usual.

But of course we should just take the trades as they setup, only I wasn't for selling GBP today thats all, just want to buy it so waiting for an uptrend to develop plus those moves down were very weak weren't they??? You know not any real good AB moves taking out last low or high???

I am following your advice trying to not just take any old trade but waiting for the really good setups. Not that those weren't just trying to develop some patience in my trading and only taking what I really really like. Also fighting that "fiveminitus" thingy too!!! Not one trade today, aren't you impressed and funny enough no losers either, must be something in that???

Anyway I'm gonna wait for next 1 min trend set up then I'm in if it sets up correctly. Probably going to be NYO now but I don't mind as its just as important to know when not to trade as it is to know when to trade, right????

I'm happy so far today lets see how NYO pans out. They've already got big cars in America haven't they???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #455
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:27am Jun 18, 2014 6:27am
Quoting clivepackham
No becos they are sitting there waiting to buy back into daily trend at a discount level, now what level would you be sitting at waiting to pounce???? Thats assuming of course they are looking after thier clients money properly, looking for opportunities to buy low, sell high so investing it wisely.
Hi Clive

Do you mean gbpusd buy levels? If yes it might already have happened as it looks like move below yesterdays low has been rejected. I gave up trying to buy/sell levels, wasn't good enough to be consistent. Worked on the assumption that if reverting to trend there will be some reversal candles on 1hr to show the way.
  • #456
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:30am Jun 18, 2014 6:30am
Quoting pres78
Quiet here this week. I know I have been busy with work, trading my methods and also testing Clive's baby. I have noticed that on some pairs I trade like EURAUD and GBPAUD + some others some of the best moves and entries come during Asia and pre FO, LO and NYO. Last week and starting to look like this week a trend is set Monday and we take a run from there. EURAUD for example on Mon, Tues and Wed last week on EURAUD was all down. Thurs was some up and then down and Fri was the only day that made more upward progress than down. Other than a brief...

Attached chart showing the resulting PA. This was from Monday this week on EURAUD - 1 min chart. I watched the LO action unfold live and was weighing reasons to go short but for several reasons I decided to wait.

  1. Divergences in the 14 CCI
  2. CCI 210 has hit above 0 (not a big deal) but also hit +100 and made a PA HH
  3. PA after LO was messy and 30 minutes into LO we had not made any headway in taking out that base and actually put in a HL before crossing back above the 100MA (and 200 not on this chart)
  4. While we were below 4400 (which none of you knew) we had only hit the 85 level (15/85 Vantage)?

To add the the trickiness they broke 4400 (or a 25 level as far as you knew) and right after LO the actually put in a LH testing the 25 level but with that triple tested low so close by for me anyway I would have wanted to see the daily low taken out and tested before going short. As we can see in this chart we quickly switched to long mode after that last failed attempt to go lower.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudm1.png Size: 95 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #457
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:47am Jun 18, 2014 6:47am
CADCHF - CHF at top of Clive's strength meter and CAD at the bottom

Price was capped several times under the 8275 level and had recently made a local LL taking out the bottom of the range. Back to 75 level with CCI 70 (and the 14 also) above +100 and then both the CCI 210 and 70 (and 14) also head back into trend below -100. The HA (set to 100 MA) is red and we can get in with a 3 pip SL if we place SL above the HA and even a 5 pip SL if we feel safer going above the 75 level.

At 3 pips we quickly have 4:1 at 5 pips we already have 2:1. (Chart shows actually a 2.2 pip SL if you go right above the HA/MA)... Wow!

Not bad IMHO.

Sorry about having the 70 CCI on as that is something I am testing and I am too lazy to mark up a new chart but if you check the 14 was in line also.

Edit - Oh and there was nice separation between the 100 and 200 MA's

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchfm1.png Size: 95 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #458
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:57am Jun 18, 2014 6:57am
Keep an eye CADCHF - below yesterday low and 14 CCI has spiked above +100 with divergence...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #459
  • Jun 18, 2014 7:04am Jun 18, 2014 7:04am
Quoting pres78
Keep an eye CADCHF - below yesterday low and 14 CCI has spiked above +100 with divergence...
Paper trade in at 82609 SL 3 pips at 82639, safe as I can get over 3:1 before hitting the 50 level. At 1% per trade these trades that hit 2,3,4,5 or more to 1 risk reward add up quickly. You don't need to risk big to see you gains compound and grow. Small TF, small SL, small targets means we don't need to move far to get nice R:R trades.

Now I don't recommend trading with crazy small SL's all the time but if the PA and indi's agree that a small SL is a safe SL than go for it. Get in and out quickly and bank some cash.

Will this trade work? I don't know but it meets my rules so win or lose I followed the plan.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchfm1.png Size: 103 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #460
  • Jun 18, 2014 7:04am Jun 18, 2014 7:04am
Just thought I would throw a little info your way. I am a retired institutional trader, got to get out of the rat race earlier than most, at age 50. You might want to refine your AB=CD trading some by filtering out some of of the patterns I see you posting. This particular pattern is traded by some of the best traders on both the NYSE (where I worked) and the CME. The original pattern was developed by H.M. Gartley in 1935 in his book "Profits in the Stock Market" and his been refined over the years to be more accurate. An excellent book by Ross L. Beck entitled "Gartley Trading Method: New Techniques to Profit From the Market's Most Powerful Formation" is an excellent source for setting pre-conditions (filters) for taking this trade. I often trade this pattern in the US futures markets and have a very high success percentage.

While explaining the trade conditions here would take several hours, I feel like you could benefit greatly from this book because it helped me filter out Gartley patterns that are not as strong as others. Gartley was very specific about the pre-conditions to make this trade successful. The book isn't very complimentary toward day traders using the formation, but I have found that the formation is fractal in nature and works across any time frame, if the pre-conditions are met. Best of luck in your trading, hope this helps.
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