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  • #421
  • Jun 14, 2014 8:41am Jun 14, 2014 8:41am
Be peace onto you ,
Clivepacham ,
your Father's words are great and comprise over a deep meaning. He was true.
what you thinks directly effects on your physiology.May Allah give HIm a peaceful place in Paradise
  • #422
  • Edited 1:08pm Jun 14, 2014 12:50pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting Vantage
Hi Clive I'm not sure if I can help further here. Try as I might you seem to be wanting to go off on a tangent every 2nd day and I don't want to be the jerk that's jumping on you from a dizzy height. I still don't think you realise what you have, so I will focus on the following: As per several recent posts I will do a quick daily assessment for identified proven SR levels on D charts, I will be aware of W pivots and prices reaction to them, I will be aware of 1hr flow (whether it be for CT or resumption of trend), I will be aware of the size of...
Oh no!!!

Is that a farewell Mr V.????

Have I driven you to distraction with my toing and froing???Sorry but I was just getting pulled one way then the other by trade ideas here there and everywhere and yep I guess I suffer from fiveminuteitis. But I am settling down to just one solid plan from now on , I promise. I'm going back to my original ideas with a slight twist. Won't bore or annoy you with it here.

I hope you don't leave for good, I hope you hang around just a bit longer to see how it all works out. You've been a great help throughout this thread it would be a shame if you left now just when its getting interesting.

Why don't you just pop in every now and again to see how things are going , maybe share your longer term thoughts??

Hopefully I misread that last post and you will be around Monday, hope so.

But just in case you are leaving then thanks a bunch for all your time,posts, advice etc etc its been great.

If you hit any good trades maybe you could just post them here for all to see??

All the best Mr V. and happy trading.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #423
  • Jun 17, 2014 5:06am Jun 17, 2014 5:06am
Quoting Vantage
Just read this elsewhere and couldn't agree more: Picking tops and bottoms in market is a fools game. It can be done, but the road is long and treacherous...and when all boils down, there are a lot easier ways to make money.
Hello Mr V, I learnt what you just said "THE HARD WAY". But in the end I am happy I what I came up with. I have been lurking on your posts since long now. Thanks.
  • #424
  • Jun 17, 2014 5:10am Jun 17, 2014 5:10am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Oh no!!! Is that a farewell Mr V.???? Have I driven you to distraction with my toing and froing???Sorry but I was just getting pulled one way then the other by trade ideas here there and everywhere and yep I guess I suffer from fiveminuteitis. But I am settling down to just one solid plan from now on , I promise. I'm going back to my original ideas with a slight twist. Won't bore or annoy you with it here. I hope you don't leave for good, I hope you hang around just a bit longer to see how it all works out. You've been...
My apologies Clive, I posted something and have removed it as it was a little harsh. The principle does apply, get a method, research it, trade it per the rules, find out what works and what doesn't. Only then tinker, research changes, prove they are beneficial then trade them. Trade the rules as only then will you know the method works.
  • #425
  • Edited 6:54am Jun 17, 2014 6:43am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} My apologies Clive, I posted something and have removed it as it was a little harsh. The principle does apply, get a method, research it, trade it per the rules, find out what works and what doesn't. Only then tinker, research changes, prove they are beneficial then trade them. Trade the rules as only then will you know the method works.
Thats Ok Mr V. No problem with your last post as I have no problem with the truth or criticism for that matter, as long as its constructive and yours always was, so no problem at all Mr V. far from it in fact the opposite is true, as I am delighted you spent your valuable time posting here and trying to help me.

I have given it all some serious thought and I am convinced trading the strongest trenders on the 1 min can be done just have to stick to the rules as you say. Maybe look at higher timeframes but not too far away, for a directional bias and nothing more.

Really looking for the London or New York breakout trade and the post news trade. All the same trade idea catch the 1 min trend, the money coming to the market, then hold as long as the trend holds.

My goal hasn't changed, to find that system of BIG winners small losers as per FXCM's findings, thats all I'm after small risk entries large profits so good RR. Simple as that, without having to wait around days for a good daily signal etc. I just believe we can get good RR trading 1 min charts as long as we follow the 15 min momentum and stick strictly to trading times.

Anyway I am not going to go on too much more but will take your excellent advice and test and trade my demo account for a while whilst I develop the idea a bit further then come back with the rest of my money and give it another go.Will continue here but with demo explorer for a while until I get some positive results then go from there.

Don't worry not giving up on my goal might just have to reset the time scales but will still do it here one day soon with real money but common sense must prevail until I've cracked it.

Catch up later and thanks again for your time and effort , much appreciated.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #426
  • Jun 17, 2014 5:17pm Jun 17, 2014 5:17pm
Quiet here this week. I know I have been busy with work, trading my methods and also testing Clive's baby. I have noticed that on some pairs I trade like EURAUD and GBPAUD + some others some of the best moves and entries come during Asia and pre FO, LO and NYO. Last week and starting to look like this week a trend is set Monday and we take a run from there. EURAUD for example on Mon, Tues and Wed last week on EURAUD was all down. Thurs was some up and then down and Fri was the only day that made more upward progress than down. Other than a brief dip into 4400 Monday this week has been all up so far... I've never been big on opening trades during Asia but I may have to consider this on some pairs that seem to set their moves and tones for the day during Asia.

So just for fun I have a what would you do. No pair, no date, no TF (well OK this is 1 min). FO and LO marked. As we can see we have trended down from the daily high to the daily low. You can see the PA between FO and LO and a few bars after on chart Test 1. You can see the CCI 14 and CCI 210 readings. Gray horizontal lines are .2500 levels.

Anything on chart test 1 that anyone would have shorted?

If yes, why?
If no, why?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Test 1.png Size: 63 KB


Second chart named Test 2 you can see just a few more bars after LO. How about now? Blue line I marked we have;

 

  1. MA's in right order and apart
  2. CCI 210 below -100
  3. CCI 14 below -100 after just hitting +100 on the last retrace into the 100 MA

Would anyone short this blue line bar?


If yes, why?
If no, why?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Test 2.png Size: 43 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #427
  • Jun 17, 2014 5:35pm Jun 17, 2014 5:35pm
For me it`a Buy :

1- Oversold CCI

2- Good support

3- The low bottom get higher.
Let the GOLD time Roll
  • #428
  • Jun 17, 2014 5:40pm Jun 17, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting Chatchoc
For me it`a Buy : 1- Oversold CCI 2- Good support 3- The low bottom get higher.
What was your trigger for OS? The CCI 210 hitting -200? It had been under -100 for most of the fall so I am curious at what point you looked at it as OS.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #429
  • Edited Jun 18, 2014 1:26am Jun 17, 2014 5:49pm | Edited Jun 18, 2014 1:26am
Quoting pres78
Quiet here this week. I know I have been busy with work, trading my methods and also testing Clive's baby. I have noticed that on some pairs I trade like EURAUD and GBPAUD + some others some of the best moves and entries come during Asia and pre FO, LO and NYO. Last week and starting to look like this week a trend is set Monday and we take a run from there. EURAUD for example on Mon, Tues and Wed last week on EURAUD was all down. Thurs was some up and then down and Fri was the only day that made more upward progress than down. Other than a brief...
Yes to every 14 cci signal down on first chart that was preceded by a clear push down including the first couple even though 210 cci above zero.

You see my definition of a sell signal is cci crosses below +100 level becos I'm trading the drop in the 15min momentum so if its sloping down below +100 level I'm looking for shorts on 1 min cci. However they must be LH's or double tops compared to last 14 cci signal. Again these must be crossing down from over +100 level. Ok so that's the first two filters for my entry but one more filter before I hit my trade.

There must be a colour change in HA candles to red, this is my signal candle and its low must be taken out for entry.Interestingly this appears to coincide with 14cco crossing zero level so we could say as CCI 14 crosses zero enter eg in this case red cci equals enter.

As for test 2 no I wouldn't take it as fails first filter above the previous push down, in fact last couple, failed to take out last low so buyers are taking control. In fact strongly suspect a typical London reversal of overnight move.

Great question good fun.

How did I do???

Pretty good at the theory not so hot at practical but I will get there I promise you.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #430
  • Edited Jun 18, 2014 1:46am Jun 17, 2014 5:59pm | Edited Jun 18, 2014 1:46am
Just noticed too that the last push down, your blue line was preceded by a HH so definitely suspicious of a reversal and looking to buy your signal if the 14cci turn up is a HL would be more tempted to buy it than sell it.

Just having another look now I'm back home, not on mobile so can see your chart better.

Its a great example to discuss too, look at test 2 chart and you see the drive down that took the 15 min CCI 210 to our oversold level. Once you see that happen should be very careful of taking any more 1 min signals for a while at least until it comes back down towards the 100 level.

However next 1 min CCI sell signal crossing down from +100 level is a qualifyer in that its level with the previous CCI sell signal therefore a double top. Finding resistance at previous level. But if you take it then watch price closely as it approaches B again eg last drive low and if you see evidence of it faltering then close it out, bank your money. Also if you had traded the previous sells and were holding bank them too as looking like reversal after a long trend down.

Next push up takes out last LH so confirmation to me that this whole trend down is coming to an end and definately get out on next push down if it results in a HL, which it does.

Your blue line is a LH after a push down so could be perceived as a price continuing with the down trend but the 3 previous drives all ended at the same level so clear evidence of support forming there, a base forming for the reversal.

So to cut a long story short NO I wouldn't sell that signal as after a long trend down over night I am expecting London to reverse it plus the evidence is there that support is coming to the table.

Hey but what do I know???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #431
  • Jun 17, 2014 6:08pm Jun 17, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting clivepackham
Just noticed tpo that the last push down ypur blue line was proceded by a hh sp definately suspocious of a reversal and looling to buy your signal if the 14cci turn up is a hl would buy it. Answering this on mpbile so please excuse typong errors fingers too fat for mob keybpard. Lol
Np pbrlem Clave tipang is tuff biznass wan yu ar on a callulr pone!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #432
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:54am Jun 18, 2014 1:54am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Np pbrlem Clave tipang is tuff biznass wan yu ar on a callulr pone!
Morning pres78

That's funny, very funny. Nice sense of humour.

Have just edited my posts as back home now and can see the charts clearer too, very nice examples and well worth the exercise. Please reread my previous posts as have added quite a bit.

How did I do?? Can I have my marks please???

Anyway taking your advice my friend as I am going to be trading my demo for a bit to iron out some obvious creases in my strategy. Again its what good money management is all about dispite having an absolute nightmare start to my explorer 40 odd losers. I still have nearly 75% of my trading money left so still in the game but I would be a fool to carry on trading and losing at this rate.

There is obviously something amiss with my strategy one way or another.Well its back to demo account to iron out the faults then come back again with the real money and go again.Will update explorer with Demo account shortly and see how we go.

Cheers for the question great stuff.

By the way not giving up on my 30 day goal just moving the completion date forward a bit.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #433
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:48am Jun 18, 2014 2:48am
Quoting pres78
Quiet here this week. I know I have been busy with work, trading my methods and also testing Clive's baby. I have noticed that on some pairs I trade like EURAUD and GBPAUD + some others some of the best moves and entries come during Asia and pre FO, LO and NYO. Last week and starting to look like this week a trend is set Monday and we take a run from there. EURAUD for example on Mon, Tues and Wed last week on EURAUD was all down. Thurs was some up and then down and Fri was the only day that made more upward progress than down. Other than a brief...
Difficult to say where/at what price with no time/price references but once price was below both ma's, cci 210 at -100 and cci 14 retracing to +100 there were several double tops/lower highs to sell. There was a base forming well before FO at the 25 level but it certainly seems like there was space between the entries and the base to take trades and get stop to BE. The last trade for me was just after FO with the move just above the 25 level.

On the 2nd pic after LO. Whilst there is clearly a base forming the last push up was not with the same enthusiasm as those between FO and LO. That suggests to me with the weakening cci/lower highs that there would likely be a move down. But theres no space between the low and entry which makes it a problem with a small stop. So rather leave and hope theres a fall and lower high retest of this base level.
  • #434
  • Jun 18, 2014 3:16am Jun 18, 2014 3:16am
This looks kinda interesting looking at my Top Trenders indicator as GBP is weak (red) in 1 min but strong (green) in 5 min Top Trender. Would suggest a reversal on the cards but I'm not for selling GBP right now for 2 main reasons.

1) I still think the market wants to buy GBP on the strength of last weeks news around a possible interest rate hike early next year.

2) The news is about to be announced on that subject so Banks traders etc are standing to one side to see what happens.

This is setting up for a nice post news trade as fully expect London traders to buy GBP afterwards no matter what on the strength of what garney said last Friday however if he says something different and shows signs of back tracking then expect a strong correction of last Fridays move back down.

But I'm not going to guess what they will do just wait for news release to pass and see how the market reacts. Just see which GBP pair is top of 1 min trenders then jump on board.

Sounds easy enough doesn't it????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: possible reversal setup.png Size: 63 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #435
  • Jun 18, 2014 3:41am Jun 18, 2014 3:41am
Well can't make heads or tail of this chart fully expecting it to fly on last Fridays Garneys annoucement that GBP interest rates going up next year, but it could just as likely plummet like a stone??? What do I know???

However heres what I do know, the money will soon be hitting the table hard as the Banks make thier minds up and thats what will move the market one way por the other. So I am gonna sit here and watch for a 1 min trend to set up one way or the other then I will jump on and see where we go from there.

Well thats the plan.

But first, time for a cuppa, whilst they read the minutes and make their minds up, anyone for tea????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: post news trade setting up.png Size: 58 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #436
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:07am Jun 18, 2014 4:07am
Hmmm still not sure whats going on yet but do I see a bit of support at Daily S1 level???

Or am I just choosing to see what confirms my belief its going up today???

Must just trade what I see not what I believe I see.

Best I just wait for the trend to set up properly and go from there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: post news trade still setting up.png Size: 72 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #437
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:25am Jun 18, 2014 4:25am
Well its all quiet on the north front sir!!! Not alot going on is there??? So a bit of time for some longer timeframe analysis, Jesus I must be bored???

Well quick look at the hourly first what does that tell me???

Next to FA!! Could go either way??? Anyone want to hazard a guess where its going????

Well if you do know where its going you're a better man than me Gunga Din, as my old Dad use to say.

Well guess what?? I haven't got a clue either so I am gonna sit here and wait for it all to kick off then jump on board and hold on tight could be a long haul.

Of course on the other hand nothing could happen whatsoever.

Guess that's trading!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a better man than me gunga din.png Size: 70 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #438
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:34am Jun 18, 2014 4:34am
Quoting clivepackham
Hmmm still not sure whats going on yet but do I see a bit of support at Daily S1 level??? Or am I just choosing to see what confirms my belief its going up today??? Must just trade what I see not what I believe I see. Best I just wait for the trend to set up properly and go from there. {image}
My CM has GBP very weak but USD not exactly strong either so I'd leave that.

Was watching ej as eur strong and jpy weak, had abc just above 138.55 but no retrace on 14cci back to -100 so I left, thems the breaks. Wasn't watching closely enough to see looks like it had a 200 move on cci scale but not back to -100. My own fault for trying to do 2 things at once.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpym1.png Size: 35 KB
  • #439
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:36am Jun 18, 2014 4:36am
Clive was your dad from Yorkshire by any chance?
  • #440
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:45am Jun 18, 2014 4:45am
Heres what I'm looking for to buy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: so what am i looking for to buy.png Size: 74 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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