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NZD/USD

  • #5,681
  • Jun 17, 2014 5:48am Jun 17, 2014 5:48am
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} one should always look through the prism of central banker and not oneself.central bankers saying exchange rate not sustainable due to dairy prices falling and not the other way round.apart from this there are 2 more scenarios where nzd will fall 1,us economy is growing and the other is any risk event.
I get what you're saying - at the end of the day I believe we're on the same track: They want higher dairy prices. Accomplishing this means a weaker currency.

Central Banker Prism: Well, we can print all the money we want, so, higher prices are good for us....F*&K the people....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #5,682
  • Jun 17, 2014 7:52am Jun 17, 2014 7:52am
NZDUSD is showing signs of weakness on H1 chart (as signaled by descending trend line). 0.8640 and 0.8635 becomes immediate supports breaking which chances that the pair can test 0.8600 and 0.8565 levels can't be denied. On the upside, 0.8675 becomes the resistance breaking which it can rally towards 0.8700.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh1.png Size: 32 KB
  • #5,683
  • Jun 17, 2014 9:14am Jun 17, 2014 9:14am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} I get what you're saying - at the end of the day I believe we're on the same track: They want higher dairy prices. Accomplishing this means a weaker currency. Central Banker Prism: Well, we can print all the money we want, so, higher prices are good for us....F*&K the people....
well my impression of newzealand banker are they r giving two contradictory signal one by thier action which is they want lower inflation therby increasing interest rate asking others to buy the currency and the other is by word of mouth giving the impression that exchange rate unsustainable, they r actually suffering with cognitive dissonance.
my experience is its better to see with bankster eyes than our own that way 90% of time it will keep u on the right side of the market.end of the day its, one's score which is whats important than what we feel about these bankster
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #5,684
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:12am Jun 18, 2014 4:12am
Sold already at 0.8671. Hope it goes down to hell today.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: NZD2.PNG Size: 15 KB
Stay Hungry Stay Foolish
  • #5,685
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:08pm Jun 18, 2014 2:08pm
I sucked today. . . lessons learned : greed is bad (sometimes) & never trade before FOMC meetings.

Hope you guys had a better day.
Stay Hungry Stay Foolish
  • #5,686
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:12pm Jun 18, 2014 2:12pm
I have no swap so better for longterm just short this KIWI.
  • #5,687
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:14pm Jun 18, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting khol_hands
I have no swap so better for longterm just short this KIWI.
my basic according to weekly or monthly charts
  • #5,688
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:21pm Jun 18, 2014 2:21pm
I have been a NZD bull for a long time, I (annotated here) bought the dip at .85,

https://charts.mql5.com/5/8/nzdusd-w...-division1.png

If you are 'bearish', watch out .... this may zoom past .90 ... my long term view was parity ... but at least a test of .89/90. Only below .8050 am I bearish (with a hold below on weekly close).
  • #5,689
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:38pm Jun 18, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting slow-trader
I have been a NZD bull for a long time, I (annotated here) bought the dip at .85, {image} If you are 'bearish', watch out .... this may zoom past .90 ... my long term view was parity ... but at least a test of .89/90. Only below .8050 am I bearish (with a hold below on weekly close).
going off this, i personally wouldn't short this until a test of .877x, and that is likely to make it bounce down for 30 pips (above the average counter wave). I am going to close at .884x if we don't have a strong break out above there ... and have a pending short for .8830 to counter the bulls for a few pips (probably down to .877x mininum).

either way,if you are selling nzd on any pair, be safe. we are clearly in a flag breakout, equal legs are 150-220 pips and we are only 90 into it from the last wave low (yesterday). After it reaches the 150-220, it is the AUD and NZD personality to blow out the stops above/below target. that is .8770-.8840 (.8640 low+ 150-220 pips) perfectly. coincidence? or pattern?

with all that said, a simple chatter from the RBNZ or fontana news (or sentament from China/US/whoever) can send this pair down. break below weekly low (.8640) will put me at Neutral from Bullish.

https://charts.mql5.com/5/8/nzdusd-h...-division1.png
  • #5,690
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:41pm Jun 18, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting slow-trader
I have been a NZD bull for a long time, I (annotated here) bought the dip at .85, {image} If you are 'bearish', watch out .... this may zoom past .90 ... my long term view was parity ... but at least a test of .89/90. Only below .8050 am I bearish (with a hold below on weekly close).
Hey slow-trader, I like that range indicator you have in the upper left corner. Can you share?
  • #5,691
  • Jun 18, 2014 3:59pm Jun 18, 2014 3:59pm
My gut feeling is if this gets back up to .88 then wheeler will start to do something.... Remember he's working on his traffic light system, but wouldn't say what light they are at yet.....

if this gets up to .90 then this will crucify the nz economy.... Just look at Aussie
  • #5,692
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:37pm Jun 18, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} either way,if you are selling nzd on any pair, be safe. we are clearly in a flag breakout, equal legs are 150-220 pips and we are only 90 into it from the last wave low (yesterday). After it reaches the 150-220, it is the AUD and NZD personality to blow out the stops above/below target. that is .8770-.8840 (.8640 low+ 150-220 pips) perfectly. coincidence? or pattern? with all that said, a simple chatter from the RBNZ or fontana news (or sentament from China/US/whoever) can send this pair down. break below weekly low (.8640) will put me at...
Hi Slow-Trader, personally I wouldn't use that pattern as a flag measurement. Not meaning to be legalistic about it but mostly a flag slowly retraces back in a measured move say back to the 38-50% (so slops down or up) then should shoot up from that break approx length of the flagpole. So at the moment you have it breaking out from the high of the range and adding your flagpole measurement to that. Price did not retrace the spike up at all which can actually be a lot more unsustainable bull move in my experience.
  • #5,693
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:08pm Jun 18, 2014 5:08pm
08683 i give it a buy. maybe??
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #5,694
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:14pm Jun 18, 2014 5:14pm
IMO can start pricing in a short now but have to very careful as this is still very hawkish and if GDP comes out as forecast then in more trouble. But Wheeler not liking the currency this high could just be the start of fall from hawkish monetary policy. Everything moves like waves so if you shorting use a big stop and be prepared to go against you. I have cut most of my longs just holding small runner as we also have interest rate to worry about! And until it go any lower this has no bearish indication.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,695
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:29pm Jun 18, 2014 5:29pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Slow-Trader, personally I wouldn't use that pattern as a flag measurement. Not meaning to be legalistic about it but mostly a flag slowly retraces back in a measured move say back to the 38-50% (so slops down or up) then should shoot up from that break approx length of the flagpole. So at the moment you have it breaking out from the high of the range and adding your flagpole measurement to that. Price did not retrace the spike up at all which can actually be a lot more unsustainable bull move in my experience.
RBNZ just raised rates and weren't to dovish. That is the 'it' factor of my confidence, I also recognize that it can consolidate/go down, and I stated the conditions that I am looking for.
  • #5,696
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:31pm Jun 18, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting Rtm
IMO can start pricing in a short now but have to very careful as this is still very hawkish and if GDP comes out as forecast then in more trouble. But Wheeler not liking the currency this high could just be the start of fall from hawkish monetary policy. Everything moves like waves so if you shorting use a big stop and be prepared to go against you. I have cut most of my longs just holding small runner as we also have interest rate to worry about! And until it go any lower this has no bearish indication.
People have to buy milk no matter what, and imports are a lot cheaper. Who says that they don't like a strong currency? their 'front page' talk has been like that since 2009, I disagree with most people, I think a strong currency is better than a weak one ... the stronger the better standards of living.
  • #5,697
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:36pm Jun 18, 2014 5:36pm
too strong nzd is not good for other industries and
this price will not last long
  • #5,698
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:44pm Jun 18, 2014 5:44pm
The problem with NZD being strong and almost like a reserve currency is that it hurts the economy because then the goods and services and everything becomes expensive. I was there in april and I witnessed it first hand. Blew way more money than I thought I would when there as NZD and AUD are the same in that sense. NZD willl just need to find a balance against USD and for time being it is just chasing yield so there will come a time when you might see some intervention and that will likely be after the data numbers suffer for a while.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,699
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:57pm Jun 18, 2014 5:57pm
Quoting Rtm
The problem with NZD being strong and almost like a reserve currency is that it hurts the economy because then the goods and services and everything becomes expensive. I was there in april and I witnessed it first hand. Blew way more money than I thought I would when there as NZD and AUD are the same in that sense. NZD willl just need to find a balance against USD and for time being it is just chasing yield so there will come a time when you might see some intervention and that will likely be after the data numbers suffer for a while.
High/strong currencies also drive down the costs of food & energy, so if input are cheaper, you can charge less for the output, in business&/economics, this is called "economies of scale". Strong wages from inflation in some cases help with higher costs.

zoom out on any NZD pair, go to monthly or weekly bars, look at the trend. The trend is up, and now look at the economies of all those other nations currencies ... Still looking ...

NZD has had one of the strongest currencies for years AND has one of the strongest economies ... Hmmm
  • #5,700
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:59pm Jun 18, 2014 5:59pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} RBNZ just raised rates and weren't to dovish. That is the 'it' factor of my confidence, I also recognize that it can consolidate/go down, and I stated the conditions that I am looking for.
No worries slow-trader wasn't questioning your direction thats up to you as opinions are dime a dozen here. Just running through your flag forecast.

Good luck with your trading.
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