Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#79,801
Jun 17, 2014 4:23am Jun 17, 2014 4:23am

Ken A
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts

Quoting Hickson

Disliked

{quote} Well, USD or JPY seems logical at first thought.

Ignored

I got 20 pips long E/A due to bad UK CPI then flip to short on negative German ZEW will probably get more from this short.

That's the nice thing trade data for quick pips

#79,802
Jun 17, 2014 4:23am Jun 17, 2014 4:23am

Hickson
Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts

Quoting Ken A

Disliked

{quote} Just wait and see Bad data for UK CPI and German ZEW where do you think the money will go I flip from long to short on negative ZEW follow the smart money {image}

Ignored

Is the observation true that USD strength/EU weakness in general supports Aussie and NZD?

Fix up, trade sharp ...

#79,803
Jun 17, 2014 4:26am Jun 17, 2014 4:26am

Ken A
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts

Quoting Hickson

Disliked

{quote} Is the observation true that USD strength/EU weakness in general supports Aussie and NZD?

Ignored

Alright, the center stage in the past hour is GBP and EUR so forget about USD and JPY.

If you want to know how bad UK CPI have impacts on my E/A longs I will explain.

#79,804
Jun 17, 2014 4:32am Jun 17, 2014 4:32am

Hickson
Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts

Quoting Ken A

Disliked

{quote} Alright, the center stage in the past hour is GBP and EUR so forget about USD and JPY. If you want to know how bad UK CPI have impacts on my E/A longs I will explain.

Ignored

Bad ZEW -> EU down is obvious, but what about A/U? Yes, please explain.

Fix up, trade sharp ...

#79,805
Jun 17, 2014 4:38am Jun 17, 2014 4:38am

Ken A
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts

Quoting Hickson

Disliked

{quote} Bad ZEW -> EU down is obvious, but what about A/U? Yes, please explain.

Ignored

Chronologically;

RBA policy minutes was dovish to be brief and some news that made investors pulled out from China hence A/U sell-off and can be seen probably hedgies and/or carry in XXX/AUD crosses unwinding. The process went on until few minutes before UK CPI and housing data.

UK data came out all red - G/U was down, GBP/AUD down, EUR/GBP down, EUR/USD up, EUR/AUD UP, AUD/USD down.

German ZEW came out negative or less than expected - E/U down, EUR/AUD down (sell EUR buy AUD) hence pushing A/U up.

E/U down push G/U back up

#79,806
Jun 17, 2014 4:43am Jun 17, 2014 4:43am

Hickson
Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts

Quoting Ken A

Disliked

{quote} Chronologically; RBA policy minutes was dovish to be brief and some news that made investors pulled out from China hence A/U sell-off and can be seen probably hedgies and/or carry in XXX/AUD crosses unwinding. The process went on until few minutes before UK CPI and housing data. UK data came out all red - G/U was down, GBP/AUD down, EUR/GBP down, EUR/USD up, EUR/AUD UP, AUD/USD down. German ZEW came out negative or less than expected - E/U down, EUR/AUD down (sell EUR buy AUD) hence pushing A/U up. E/U down push G/U back up

Ignored

Ok, thanks, sounds understandable. How can you determine the longevity of such trends? Can it be expected that this continues until new data change the picture again? For example, in E/A a retrace to 1.46xx is not off the table technically I think.

Fix up, trade sharp ...

#79,807
Jun 17, 2014 4:45am Jun 17, 2014 4:45am

workingforex
Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 649 Posts

Quoting Ken A

Disliked

{quote} Chronologically; RBA policy minutes was dovish to be brief and some news that made investors pulled out from China hence A/U sell-off and can be seen probably hedgies and/or carry in XXX/AUD crosses unwinding. The process went on until few minutes before UK CPI and housing data. UK data came out all red - G/U was down, GBP/AUD down, EUR/GBP down, EUR/USD up, EUR/AUD UP, AUD/USD down. German ZEW came out negative or less than expected - E/U down, EUR/AUD down (sell EUR buy AUD) hence pushing A/U up. E/U down push G/U back up

Ignored

Yes I agree with your views and see A/U pushing to 0.9422 and in extension to 0.9460, if 09460 holds we might see a visit to 09500 and above.

Personally, I am long from 0.4347 with a target of 0.4422, will see how it is at that level.

#79,808
Jun 17, 2014 4:46am Jun 17, 2014 4:46am

Ken A
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts

Quoting Hickson

Disliked

{quote} Ok, thanks, sounds understandable. How can you determine the longevity of such trends? Can it be expected that this continues until new data change the picture again? For example, in E/A a retrace to 1.46xx is not off the table technically I think.

Ignored

How I determine is dependent on how strong/bad/good the data. After get the market sentiment right then technical is taking over the classic support/resistance or supply and demand.

#79,809
Jun 17, 2014 4:50am Jun 17, 2014 4:50am

Hickson
Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts

Quoting Ken A

Disliked

{quote} How I determine is dependent on how strong/bad/good the data. After get the market sentiment right then technical is taking over the classic support/resistance or supply and demand.

Ignored

I think this needs a lot of experience. Still have a lot to learn.

Fix up, trade sharp ...

#79,810
Jun 17, 2014 4:56am Jun 17, 2014 4:56am

Ken A
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts

Quoting Hickson

Disliked

{quote} I think this needs a lot of experience. Still have a lot to learn.

Ignored

Experience is one thing but perception of how smart money will react to certain data or events are more important.

#79,811
Jun 17, 2014 4:57am Jun 17, 2014 4:57am

Hickson
Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts

Quoting Ken A

Disliked

{quote} Experience is one thing but perception of how smart money will react to certain data or events are more important.

Ignored

Which can only come with experience by observation

Fix up, trade sharp ...

#79,812
Jun 17, 2014 4:58am Jun 17, 2014 4:58am

RBlackburn
Joined Dec 2011 | Status: StealingPips | 1,294 Posts

AUD/USD is weakening.. it doesn't matter so much about correlation or flows atm...correlation change's and is skewed depending on the amount of data your looking at...
Just because AUD weakens against one pair doesn't mean it's going to be weak against another...
That's why we have different pairs...and sayings like "the aussie is weakening across the board"

Also this market in itself and this geo-political shit is retarded atm...so anything can happen really...

#79,813
Jun 17, 2014 5:01am Jun 17, 2014 5:01am

RBlackburn
Joined Dec 2011 | Status: StealingPips | 1,294 Posts

Quoting RBlackburn

Disliked

AUD/USD is weakening.. it doesn't matter so much about correlation or flows atm...correlation change's and is skewed depending on the amount of data your looking at... Just because AUD weakens against one pair doesn't mean it's going to be weak against another... That's why we have different pairs...and sayings like "the aussie is weakening across the board" Also this market in itself and this geo-political shit is retarded atm...so anything can happen really...

Ignored

Either way we should be able test 93 by at least this time 2moro technically
imo

#79,814
Jun 17, 2014 5:02am Jun 17, 2014 5:02am

Ken A
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts

Quoting RBlackburn

Disliked

AUD/USD is weakening.. it doesn't matter so much about correlation or flows atm...correlation change's and is skewed depending on the amount of data your looking at... Just because AUD weakens against one pair doesn't mean it's going to be weak against another... That's why we have different pairs...and sayings like "the aussie is weakening across the board" Also this market in itself and this geo-political shit is retarded atm...so anything can happen really...

Ignored

Patience

It will come to you in no time

#79,815
Jun 17, 2014 5:04am Jun 17, 2014 5:04am

RBlackburn
Joined Dec 2011 | Status: StealingPips | 1,294 Posts

Quoting Ken A

Disliked

{quote} Patience It will come to you in no time

Ignored

Ok thanks

#79,816
Jun 17, 2014 5:12am Jun 17, 2014 5:12am

Rtm
Joined Jan 2011 | Status: dump and pump | 4,055 Posts

Oh no AUD is not weakening! AUD is strengthening, as all the money is slowly being piled in from other countries looking for higher yield! Interest rates is the theme in case you havent noticed.

All posts are my personal opinion