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95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

  • #101
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:19am Jun 16, 2014 7:19am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Thanks for validating my positive contributions. I will endeavor to keep up the good work.
Ha ha, I actually get a big grin on when I see that you have contributed, because you are the only person I know who has the ability to say 'you're all gonna die' 47 different ways without repeating a word. For my part your comments are welcome.

In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #102
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:31am Jun 16, 2014 7:31am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} And your point is? Some deplete micro accounts and some deplete macro accounts.. The size of the fish does not matter if it's possible to make a buck. Do you really believe Goldman Sachs does not have weekly meetings on how to get the most $$ out of their customer accounts?
My point is that you need to con 75000 retailers with their average 2k account just to cover the initial CAPEX of opening a brokerage company! That's doesn't make sense to hire marketing people to steal your clients in oder to just pay the salary of those same marketing people. No business can survive this way.

What a broker needs is a lot of barely profitable traders. The vast majority of the retailers are intraday traders. Statistically you'll have almost always half long half short. The broker pockets the spread twice doing nothing else that updating a database.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #103
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:31am Jun 16, 2014 7:31am
At the end of the day, 100% (or maybe 95-99.6%) of participants in this discussion will walk away believing exactly as they had prior to it. Human nature is such that we seek information which reinforces our beliefs and ignore information that conflicts with our beliefs (the beauty of confirmation bias).

My opinion is that if a trader can make money in 1 quarter then they can make money on a second quarter. If they can successfully trade for 2 quarters then they can be successful on a yearly basis. If they can't maintain consistency then the fault lies on themselves and their methods and not on a rigged game or crooked brokers.

Other people have other opinions.


Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel that you, too, can become great.

Mark Twain

http://quotes4all.net/x/p.gif
  • #104
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:38am Jun 16, 2014 7:38am
Quoting casutts
{quote} Me too. There is no value in fx trading...If someone would continously be profitable for sure over ten years he would likely be the richest human on earth based on a typically high leverage, since there is little limit to the size of the bets because volume is so big....but is it really so big? No it isn't. The major part is pure speculative trading with no real business needs underlying...those who feed the biggest part of this major speculative volume and program the bot's are within limitations able to drive prices in their direction....you...

there's alot of whining here

a) most should just get back to the charts, and study
b) stay away from trading forums,
c) don't believe everything you read on the internet,
d) find someone with 10+ yrs prior knowledge of the markets,
e) find a decent broker,
f) always use sensible stops,
g) don't be greedy (most of the time)
h) and then put in some extra effort

200pips a wk is all most need, anymore is a bonus

so the consensus must be that 95% of everyone in the world are too stupid or greedy to make 200pips+ a wk
if they can't they should apply at Tesco's
or better still Aldi is hiring
  • #105
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:02am Jun 16, 2014 8:02am
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} there's alot of whining here a) most should just get back to the charts, and study b) stay away from trading forums, c) don't believe everything you read on the internet, d) find someone with 10+ yrs prior knowledge of the markets, e) find a decent broker, f) always use sensible stops, g) don't be greedy (most of the time) h) and then put in some extra effort 200pips a wk is all most need, anymore is a bonus so the consensus must be that 95% of everyone in the world are too stupid or greedy to make 200pips+ a wk if they can't they should...
Well great, if the 95% come to their senses and quit that's the end of this industry..
  • #106
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:44am Jun 16, 2014 9:44am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Well great, if the 95% come to their senses and quit that's the end of this industry..
Don't panic the world is not in short supply of stupid and greedy people
besides i thought you did n't trade and were only here to warn of the dangers, so you should be happy that retail FX could die out

anyhow the Central Bankers will always be around to buy and sell
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...rillion-market

how long the retail market is around is anyone's guess?,
but presumably as long as there is enough stupid and greedy people
  • #107
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:14am Jun 16, 2014 11:14am
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} i honestly dont know why would you ask that (here)? Yes it is, not in the same time line but eventually. .
so you believe all markets are zero sum?
  • #108
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:25am Jun 16, 2014 11:25am
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} All I am saying it is would seem that as many at 46% of retail accounts in the US ARE profitable..
sir you must be trully joking. could you provide all of us with a link to the document? who issued it and why?
quaterly profits are not yearly profits. they are QUATERLY not YEARLY.
  • #109
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:40am Jun 16, 2014 11:40am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} sir you must be trully joking. could you provide all of us with a link to the document? who issued it and why? quaterly profits are not yearly profits. they are QUATERLY not YEARLY.
I am pretty sure the topic starter is well aware that this kind of information can actually be very annoying for people that do make a profit longer term. They separated themselves from the herd by thinking different and by having a dedication that reaches beyond the stars. It is a beautiful thing one individual may strive for.

The topic starter however is killing this beautiful thing as it cannot be considered ' special ' anymore if 30-50% according to him are in profit. Honestly, whenever I open this topic an instant frustration comes up by thinking the topic starter might in fact know this and has a hidden agenda(yeah, call me paranoid).

By not providing any source, or any further indepth details on posted numbers like periods/amounts it frustrates me even more. I would take his numbers with a grain of salt until proven otherwise. For me its still 95% considering the amount of junk to be found on many forums regarding FX.
  • #110
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:44am Jun 16, 2014 11:44am
Well I'm proud to be in that 5% then. Some people say yes others no. Either way San Diego and other places now have trading schools. Freeptw.com. So if you suck at trading. Maybe you need to give this a try.
Doc K
  • #111
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:45am Jun 16, 2014 11:45am
Quoting HedgePiglet
In an effort to deal with this lingering stink we constantly hear about how this mythical 5% of FX traders are profitable and the rest are all losers, I have discovered a public document with some VERY interesting statistics. I have long been an advocate that this 5% rumour cannot be accurate as every trader I know personally is in profit and I have finally found a reputable report that kicks the 5% in its nuts. I do not have info on exactly HOW profitable they are, the numbers only indicate IF the account has turned a profit in the previous year....
you haven't worked in an office once in your life eh? i don't want to call you names but thanks to hanover http://forexmagnates.com/exclusive-q...anda-slipping/ . THE NUMBERS YOU PROVIDED ARE THE Q4 NUMBERS ! you are truly in the unknown. if you worked in any company you would have paid for this mistake.
  • #112
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:51am Jun 16, 2014 11:51am
Quoting HedgePiglet
In an effort to deal with this lingering stink we constantly hear about how this mythical 5% of FX traders are profitable and the rest are all losers, I have discovered a public document with some VERY interesting statistics. I have long been an advocate that this 5% rumour cannot be accurate as every trader I know personally is in profit and I have finally found a reputable report that kicks the 5% in its nuts. I do not have info on exactly HOW profitable they are, the numbers only indicate IF the account has turned a profit in the previous year....
Very true. But you must include two things:

1) 90,000 accounts is a small sample in even the retail forex world.
2) The most profitable accounts are the ones that are most capitalize (i.e. IB and Citi both require $10,000 min. balance). This doesn't mean you're more successful alone, but the account can ride out momentary downturns in a position. They also have lower leverages that you'll see from brokers globally.

I fully agree that the 5% profitable traders is a bit silly, but there are quite a few factors that differentiate those that do and those that don't.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #113
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:52am Jun 16, 2014 11:52am
Quoting Fractalist
{quote} The people here who keep telling us that we are destined to lose seem very suspicious to me. I cannot think of any valid motive for them telling us these things. They can't be working for the brokers or banks. They want us to trade. They can't be individual traders. If these people go around saying that 95% of people lose, and they continue to trade anyway, what was the point of their 'warning' if even they won't heed it? Maybe they are ex-traders who quit. If so, why hang around FF? How bored must they be? I have an idea who these people...
Or they will change the laws of the land, and make what we are trying to do illegal.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #114
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:55am Jun 16, 2014 11:55am
I don't know what the percentages nor does it really matter to me. I will say that pretty much everyone fails in trading spot because they over leverage with bad MM skills. The spot forex is full of part time, inexperienced, unskilled, underfunded and over leveraged traders. You would expect a high failure rate. Does it really matter which market it is given the above.

Prices changes for a reason, and knowledge of factors affecting the market enables all speculators to forecast price movement. This knowledge is one factor that separates speculators from gamblers. What ever the percentage of failed traders in the spot market it isn't the market that is the cause it is the above factors.
  • #115
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:58am Jun 16, 2014 11:58am
lol you must work for a broker. This is the poorest excuse for a scientific revelation i've ever seen.
  • #116
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:05pm Jun 16, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting casutts
{quote} Me too. There is no value in fx trading...If someone would continously be profitable for sure over ten years he would likely be the richest human on earth based on a typically high leverage, since there is little limit to the size of the bets because volume is so big....but is it really so big? No it isn't. The major part is pure speculative trading with no real business needs underlying...those who feed the biggest part of this major speculative volume and program the bot's are within limitations able to drive prices in their direction....you...

I'm sorry Casutts but this statement is rather naive. Successful traders just don't trade with the high level of leverage that is exposed to the micro retail traders. So high capital, small leverage is the name of the game. If you are under capitalized and using high leverage then it is only a matter of time before you lose your account.

Speculators do provide economic purpose and benefit such as providing business, farmers etc a liquid market to hedge risk whether that be tangible or non-tangible commodities.
  • #117
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:21pm Jun 16, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} sir you must be trully joking. could you provide all of us with a link to the document? who issued it and why? quaterly profits are not yearly profits. they are QUATERLY not YEARLY.
In an effort to prevent you suffering what can only be described as a truly momentous aneurism, I have edited my comment to fit. The commentary I have says annually, the doc Hanover submitted is quarterly, I shall go with the lesser evil.

I have no agenda here folks other than to suggest 5% is unrealistic. I have not submitted my own findings which are 100%, I am reporting on what I have that ONLY suggests 5% is a fable.

Again, repeating myself, no hidden meaning, no sinister 3rd force, no conspiracy theory, simply a 'hey people, take a look at this, isn't this more encouraging than 5%?!'

If this makes you miserable and you instantly demand a pedigree statement, then you have sort of missed the point. My trading year on year IS profitable, I'm quite happy to be in the magic 5% club. I was hoping I could support a larger membership, thats all.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #118
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:32pm Jun 16, 2014 12:32pm
Wait, so you are making profit while yet creating a topic with this type of content? I dont know how much effort you are putting in this field but i frankly dont get why the hell you would want to consider yourself part of a 40% mass instead of a 5% special group or even elite. Your logic goes beyond me.
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} In an effort to prevent you suffering what can only be described as a truly momentous aneurism, I have edited my comment to fit. The commentary I have says annually, the doc Hanover submitted is quarterly, I shall go with the lesser evil. I have no agenda here folks other than to suggest 5% is unrealistic. I have not submitted my own findings which are 100%, I am reporting on what I have that ONLY suggests 5% is a fable. Again, repeating myself, no hidden meaning, no sinister 3rd force, no conspiracy theory, simply a 'hey people, take a...
  • #119
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:33pm Jun 16, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} In an effort to prevent you suffering what can only be described as a truly momentous aneurism, I have edited my comment to fit. The commentary I have says annually, the doc Hanover submitted is quarterly, I shall go with the lesser evil. I have no agenda here folks other than to suggest 5% is unrealistic. I have not submitted my own findings which are 100%, I am reporting on what I have that ONLY suggests 5% is a fable. Again, repeating myself, no hidden meaning, no sinister 3rd force, no conspiracy theory, simply a 'hey people, take a...
Quite honest can't believe the grief commentary you are receiving after just posting the document. I personally think it would have to be at least above 80% based on high leverage available and low capital required but thats just my opinion.

  • #120
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:40pm Jun 16, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting Robertk
Your logic goes beyond me.{quote}
Your near-valve-burst is making me laugh. I have no beef with you and why you're so incensed that I have begun a lively discussion is providing me with entertainment. You are screaming at a tree.

Im profitable. I have no opinion beyond my own experience and I have opened a debate. If it soothes you to use exclamation marks, please go ahead.

Im im going to enjoy a beer, having concluded a profitable days trading.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
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