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NZD/USD

  • #5,661
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:27am Jun 13, 2014 4:27am
I Agree with Mr. Mao. As the prices went down after failing to surpass 0.8700. A sustained trading below 0.8645 can force the pair to witness 0.8600 and the important support zone of 0.8575 - 0.8545. Oscillators are also supporting the same forecast. Hope to monetiize the decline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 37 KB
  • #5,662
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:15am Jun 13, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Fx_Anil
I Agree with Mr. Mao. As the prices went down after failing to surpass 0.8700. A sustained trading below 0.8645 can force the pair to witness 0.8600 and the important support zone of 0.8575 - 0.8545. Oscillators are also supporting the same forecast. Hope to monetiize the decline. {image}
thank you,
your excellent analysis always benefit me.
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #5,663
  • Jun 14, 2014 12:47pm Jun 14, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting slow-trader
closed longs, shorts triggered (2 lots) more than willing to close, playing this for .86 but will to hold for .848 https://charts.mql5.com/4/960/nzdusd...ivision1-2.png
hey wat is ur stop loss?
  • #5,664
  • Jun 14, 2014 1:17pm Jun 14, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} hey wat is ur stop loss?
sorry, .8705 ... it will probably stop out, I have been a NZD bull for a while and still am until we break below .8050, then I will sell rallies, until then, I am buying dips on a 4h/1d basis.
  • #5,665
  • Jun 14, 2014 1:25pm Jun 14, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} sorry, .8705 ... it will probably stop out, I have been a NZD bull for a while and still am until we break below .8050, then I will sell rallies, until then, I am buying dips on a 4h/1d basis.
The central bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised interest rates from 3% to about NZD 3:25%. This in itself does not represent a novelty as this intervention was the widely anticipated for some time. However, what has surprised the market (and much stronger NZD) is the fact that the RBNZ has made it known through his statement that further hikes are very likely already in 2014. As I said, this was a new and as a result the market started to move higher "pricing in" as early as next intervention by the RBNZ. Despite the recent rise in interest rates might seem an opportunity to position themselves long on NZD, we recommend carefully reading as well as statements of the central bank of New Zealand shows that "the current strength of the NZD is unsustainable."

As for Eur-Usd, the exchange rate continues to be very heavy and seems to make a great effort to retrace. Even this morning, buyers are positioning themselves between 1.3520 and 1.3500. It should be said that buyers are positioning themselves on those levels now for the third day in a row, and if the market is not yet really been rejected, the "risk" of breaking 1.3500 becomes more likely.
  • #5,666
  • Jun 14, 2014 11:49pm Jun 14, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting ruffryders
NZD 10 year yield is going down, while the NZD USD is pulling back on the down move. Not going to last, ATM just a short term move. {image}
Seriously.....how is this "just a short term move" when Wheeler has pointed out there will be more rate hikes this year?...

I'm just saying, sounds like a recipe for disaster holding NZDUSD shorts paying high swaps.

Getting locked into one way of thinking without addressing the fact of the matter is what leads to devastation.

NZDUSD is going up until these rate hikes are finished with..anybody who has a bit of logic would realise that.

We may not actually see NZDUSD turn until next year when the pressure will be on the US to begin raising rates.

If the RBNZ really wants intervention it will most likely be at the 0.90 mark
  • #5,667
  • Jun 15, 2014 12:22am Jun 15, 2014 12:22am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Seriously.....how is this "just a short term move" when Wheeler has pointed out there will be more rate hikes this year?... I'm just saying, sounds like a recipe for disaster holding NZDUSD shorts paying high swaps. Getting locked into one way of thinking without addressing the fact of the matter is what leads to devastation. NZDUSD is going up until these rate hikes are finished with..anybody who has a bit of logic would realise that. We may not actually see NZDUSD turn until next year when the pressure will be on the US to begin raising...
Saily while I agree with u that might be the case longer term one thing that came from the RBNZ is that future rate hikes will be determined by data so while future hikes are planned if data begins to disappoint so will the anticipation of rate hikes and it could very well be a move back down to the .825 area but longer term still an eye for possibly a bigger up move. Technically daily close below .85 still has a bearish tilt to the NZD/USD unless the highs are broken which could happen. If you look at other cross pairs such as GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD they still remain in a bullish channel even with this pullback and have not negated their higher high and higher low structure so while it may be easy to hear the RBNZ and say its buy buy buy the Kiwi alot can happen and change.
  • #5,668
  • Jun 15, 2014 12:26am Jun 15, 2014 12:26am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} Saily while I agree with u that might be the case longer term one thing that came from the RBNZ is that future rate hikes will be determined by data so while future hikes are planned if data begins to disappoint so will the anticipation of rate hikes and it could very well be a move back down to the .825 area but longer term still an eye for possibly a bigger up move. Technically daily close below .85 still has a bearish tilt to the NZD/USD unless the highs are broken which could happen. If you look at other cross pairs such as GBP/NZD and...
Also looking at the NZD/JPY it continues to respect a bearish trendline set on the daily and has just tested and failed twice so far. I would just say continue to be flexible things could change we shall see
  • #5,669
  • Jun 15, 2014 11:40pm Jun 15, 2014 11:40pm
Quoting Mr Mao
{quote} thank you, your excellent analysis always benefit me.
Glad to hear that complement..
  • #5,670
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:25am Jun 16, 2014 3:25am
Good flat traiding opportunity. IMAO S/R won't be broken, at least until Tommorow (USD Building Permits or Core CPI)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,671
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:38am Jun 16, 2014 3:38am
interesting price region to watch

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD D1.JPG Size: 96 KB


This might be the reversal zone as its already forming a double top
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,672
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:56am Jun 16, 2014 3:56am
Quoting Danny Maina
interesting price region to watch {image} This might be the reversal zone as its already forming a double top {image}
I was thinking the same thing regarding the double top.
  • #5,673
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:06pm Jun 16, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting zen252
{quote} I was thinking the same thing regarding the double top.
I hope it's a Classic "M Pattern" . And here is the most possible scenario I guess.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZD2.PNG Size: 25 KB
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  • #5,674
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:15pm Jun 16, 2014 3:15pm
Hi,

I totally agree with u. MACD shows a clear divergence down on H4. Ive already taken a small sell position but, my opinion, on its way down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,675
  • Jun 17, 2014 12:10am Jun 17, 2014 12:10am
Lets see what the next dairy auction brings tomorrow.
  • #5,676
  • Jun 17, 2014 12:49am Jun 17, 2014 12:49am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} But those prices are lower because of a stronger NZD. As the currency strengthened inflationary pressure reduces as prices fall more in line with wages... get food and energy costs more in line with wages and you have more disposable income available for consumer spending, investment, business growth, employment, etc..
one should always look through the prism of central banker and not oneself.central bankers saying exchange rate not sustainable due to dairy prices falling and not the other way round.apart from this there are 2 more scenarios where nzd will fall 1,us economy is growing and the other is any risk event.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #5,677
  • Jun 17, 2014 12:53am Jun 17, 2014 12:53am
whopaaaaaaaaaa still far away from extreme "top" still #flat in $Kiwi
Quoting iqyu5an
Dreamin' .. c ya .. {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #5,678
  • Jun 17, 2014 12:56am Jun 17, 2014 12:56am
Quoting iqyu5an
whopaaaaaaaaaa still far away from extreme "top" still #flat in $Kiwi {quote}
u think it goes higher from here?
  • #5,679
  • Jun 17, 2014 1:01am Jun 17, 2014 1:01am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} u think it goes higher from here?
i don't know either. no confirmation yet for both supply and demand ( for me )
not euphoria follower
  • #5,680
  • Jun 17, 2014 1:18am Jun 17, 2014 1:18am
Hey friends! Any expectations/predictions about Building Permits and Core CPI m/m? (and any other USD news this week).


Since AUD/USD has broken it's uptrend, and as I know NZD/USD and AUD/USD correlation is 72% or so, I want to see NZD breaking support too, until at least tommorow, but I'm pretty shure, that tommorow either Support or Resistance will be broken anyway...
Any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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