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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #27,621
  • Jun 12, 2014 12:24am Jun 12, 2014 12:24am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} edit...apologies...i posted this before i read the part about the using a smaller time frame. I usually only go to the H1 now, that's about as low as I can go. I don't have the time or a strong heart to watch the M5 anymore. My chart attachment shows the same move from the M5 and H1...I know i prefer to watch the H1/h4/daily now. That is just me and my style. The answer is in your charts. 1st green arrow..aggressive If you are an aggressive trader, you would have sold after that long red candle and break below zero on the macd. 2nd green...
Thank Richard for your reply.

I was told a break below or above the zero MACD level is not a signal.

I trade 4 pairs down form 8 to 5 and now 4. I have this question posted before. My problem, the trade comes so quickly that I don't see it coming or whether the move would continue. Sometimes, it moves so quickly that I cannot catch it on the 1hr TF. And I am not certain I could do it on shorter than 1hr TF. Please See post 27,620 I have a rather long descriptions of this issue I have been facing and asking for some time, if you remember in my previous posts.
  • #27,622
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:08am Jun 12, 2014 2:08am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thank Richard for your reply. I was told a break below or above the zero MACD level is not a signal. I trade 4 pairs down form 8 to 5 and now 4. I have this question posted before. My problem, the trade comes so quickly that I don't see it coming or whether the move would continue. Sometimes, it moves so quickly that I cannot catch it on the 1hr TF. And I am not certain I could do it on shorter than 1hr TF. Please See post 27,620 I have a rather long descriptions of this issue I have been facing and asking for some time, if you remember...

We're all in the same position as yourself, it's just time and experience that lets you see the future! aka, trademin and binnie have shown us.

Macd closing below zero surely is a confirmation of a sell trade if the moving averages / candles are looking bearish too. i think the difference is as you say it is not a signal and not a signal by itself, just another confirmation.

If the macd is red and below zero, i'm not looking to buy..not until it goes green and maybe looks like a RB..

Trading 4 pairs is enough to get a trade a day including the CT...

Going to a shorter time frame doesn't really get you in the trade any easier (you still have to know its coming) all it will do is maybe give you a smaller stop loss and a few more winning pips.

As i said before, why don't you post a chart not with a trade but what your expectations are...I use this thread like my own trading diary.

The more charts/analysis you post about what will happen, the faster you will be in learning when the moves are going to happen.

You don't have to sit in front of your computer with a finger on the mouse waiting for a candle to move, because you have already spotted the move and put a pending order in or just waiting for price to hit your target.

happy days
  • #27,623
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:16am Jun 12, 2014 3:16am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} We're all in the same position as yourself, it's just time and experience that lets you see the future! aka, trademin and binnie have shown us. Macd closing below zero surely is a confirmation of a sell trade if the moving averages / candles are looking bearish too. i think the difference is as you say it is not a signal and not a signal by itself, just another confirmation. If the macd is red and below zero, i'm not looking to buy..not until it goes green and maybe looks like a RB.. Trading 4 pairs is enough to get a trade a day including...
Well said Richard - How you getting on buddy. Hope you getting the success you deserve mate
  • #27,624
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:05am Jun 12, 2014 9:05am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks Tradmin for your reply. A bit of correction here, your reply to second trade was actually my first trade on my chart (see below). Another question is this... if let say on the 4hr TF you see a move might be coming and you switch to as shorter TF and there is the price is very close to one of two MAs, should I be concern that price could retrace or stop just there? Thanks a million for answering my questions. Nicholas {image}
Hi Nicolas,
(see first chart, the pink drawing, crossing, pull back, move away)
You are brining back a “ questioning” on That situation , I looked at It and I had the same question: why did I took that trade on passing through the 89sma?. So I had to look at it again this morning and remembered that yesterday, during my analysis, I switched instinctively to 1 hour chart to look for something reassuring, scratching the surface a little, I did that very rapidly. And the chart below represents what I have seen at that moment. Take a look. It is a crossing (the m.a.) then a pull back, then a move away. Sorry about that.

About your second trade: (see second chart)
For my part, as said earlier, since the trade was already in , the small consolidation didn't scared me, but sure it made a TC there, someone could take it from there. but for me that particular TC was just a continuation of my trade, so a continuation of my analysis.
There was no surprise for me there,.

But if I draw a line under it, since there is a support there, and look at the candles themselves for what they means individually, surely on of them is making a crisis, my guess it is the one that touches the 8ema with is tail, then pushing the debate down (the candle’s body). So I would go short below the imaginary line below there (anticipating a possible breakdown in a near future)
Well it looks like that many traders have anticipated that move down too, since the reaction is a huge candle down right after that.

Anticipation is the key: when I do analyse the market, having the 4hrs macd strategy in mind, the rhythm and rules shows what COULD BE coming, in the near future, what is the anticipation and from there is just acting on what the market is trying to say.

What is coming to my mind is this:
Going on a vacation, driving on winding roads for the first time, I feel relax but surely and confidently looking (relying on) at road signs, I feel secure! If I see a sign showing an abrupt curve, I know there is one coming, but I don’t know how it is going to be like, but every step of that curve gets my full attention.---And that’s the kind of feeling I get when every thing is properly set in a trade and I got involved in. This way I feel being in control in a nowhere land.

Any questions welcome,
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Yvon
  • #27,625
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:34pm Jun 12, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Well said Richard - How you getting on buddy. Hope you getting the success you deserve mate

I'm doing cool, well hot actually...England is actually sunny and hot today !

Trading wise, treading water, win, win, lose, win, lose, lose, win etc....

But, i did do a major f.up, what all the manuals say don't do and i did all of them ! hahaha

I bought at the top, i knew it was the top and just went ahead for no reason, then just kept moving my stop loss, the trade turned into a long term trade for over 2 weeks. My longest ever trade, however, i cut it eventually and suffered a 200 pip loss in real terms to me £20... grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr i was gutted...

Can't win 'em all....

But i am doing okay with taking 20 - 30 pips at a time, i took some on the UJ today, i got in the sell before that large down candle...

I should post it to show Nic, whose having trouble seeing the moves arriving.

You purchased your own island yet since you went live and trading your own money??
  • #27,626
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:45pm Jun 12, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thank Richard for your reply. I was told a break below or above the zero MACD level is not a signal. I trade 4 pairs down form 8 to 5 and now 4. I have this question posted before. My problem, the trade comes so quickly that I don't see it coming or whether the move would continue. Sometimes, it moves so quickly that I cannot catch it on the 1hr TF. And I am not certain I could do it on shorter than 1hr TF. Please See post 27,620 I have a rather long descriptions of this issue I have been facing and asking for some time, if you remember...

If you can make sense of my charts.

I got 20 pips today, could have got more but i set the TP and left the charts, if I was monitoring the trade i could have taken more.

That was a big move, 2 big red candles on the H1.

I was targeting the previous lows, price was moving down, spent a long time retracing and then looked ready to move again, so i took the gamble and sold.

The trend was with me this time.

You can do this time and time again on the h1/h4/daily...see the moves before, just like trademin is showing..

good luck
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  • #27,627
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:02pm Jun 12, 2014 2:02pm
sold the German dax today at 21 bounce
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  • #27,628
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:15pm Jun 12, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting akir
sold the German dax today at 21 bounce {image}
... breakout, pull back, move away... nice trade!
Yvon
  • #27,629
  • Jun 13, 2014 2:07am Jun 13, 2014 2:07am
A quick 10 pip scalp before i leave for work.

Price came up to 8, 21, 200 and a BRN.

I sold once price touched the 21.

10 pips in the bag on Friday, I'm cycling to work in the sunshine smiling, knowing i took 10 pip profit!...oh happy days Bacon sarnie at work now

Reason for not keeping trade.
macd green and moving up
Price interacting around a BRN...not sure either way

I just noticed this that the 8 ma was moving/facing up, where as yesterday the 8 was facing down, when i took the sell trade.

I have only just noticed this, does it make a difference, is it making a BPM from the 200...is this another confirmation of CoT....

I will have to monitor that and see if it's something to watch and keep me out of losing trades.

Have a good weekend all.

Thanks for the gurus in the house, please keep posting your analysis and charts...

Come on England ! well done Brazil a nervous 10 minutes but onto a win..
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  • #27,630
  • Jun 13, 2014 2:11am Jun 13, 2014 2:11am
Bugger, how did we miss the GBP move

Nic, that is why we should only watch 1 or 2 charts, why did none of us spot that move coming....to busy watching another chart!
  • #27,631
  • Jun 14, 2014 12:32pm Jun 14, 2014 12:32pm
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  • #27,632
  • Jun 15, 2014 9:20pm Jun 15, 2014 9:20pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} Hi Nicolas, (see first chart, the pink drawing, crossing, pull back, move away) You are brining back a “ questioning” on That situation , I looked at It and I had the same question: why did I took that trade on passing through the 89sma?. So I had to look at it again this morning and remembered that yesterday, during my analysis, I switched instinctively to 1 hour chart to look for something reassuring, scratching the surface a little, I did that very rapidly. And the chart below represents what I have seen at that moment. Take a look. It...
Thanks for your reply again. Such great patience. I am not sure if I have understood you correctly or maybe I have not been specific enough about what I really wanted to ask. I am still on the second trade and would want to understand it correctly before I miss a trade like this again. You mentioned that you were already in profit when the second trade occur. Please can we ignore the first trade as I have missed that and trying to enter on the second trade.

Question 1:
I remember from the first video (on page 1 of this forum) that one has to wait for price to pull back to the 21ema or half way between 8 and 21ema, otherwise it is risky (because SL could be too far away from 21ema).

Question 2:
I saw the spike on the previous candle and thought the market is moving south (yes I did anticipate that). BUT I did not take the trade as I was waiting for the first 4hr candle to close for confirmation.

=> I can't enter right from the moving away candle, or can I?

=> Do I wait for a pull back move away?

=> Like I say the first 4hr candle was a big move, 60pips. And by the first hour or 30min, it has move 30pips. The market moved rather fast, so problem is I see the move coming AFTER IT HAS STALLED FOR SOME PERIOD. Is it going to go further and is it time to enter now? Do I have to wait for pull back and move away etc???? My question is what is the technique to enter a fast moving market? I try to use 1hr TF but sometimes the market moves too fast and by the time the 1hr candle has formed, the candle is to huge for entry?

I hope I have got my points across this time. And thanks for your great patience.

Nicholas
  • #27,633
  • Edited 9:42pm Jun 15, 2014 9:27pm | Edited 9:42pm
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} We're all in the same position as yourself, it's just time and experience that lets you see the future! aka, trademin and binnie have shown us. Macd closing below zero surely is a confirmation of a sell trade if the moving averages / candles are looking bearish too. i think the difference is as you say it is not a signal and not a signal by itself, just another confirmation. If the macd is red and below zero, i'm not looking to buy..not until it goes green and maybe looks like a RB.. Trading 4 pairs is enough to get a trade a day including...
Hi Richard,

You reply prompted me to be a little more precise with expressing what I was really concern about. I try to put this in words without a chart.

You know with the trades I have asked Tradmin since last week.... I saw the candle formation and thought this market could be moving soon (anticipation). But you know many cases with EURUSD the market move just so fast...... if you read post 27,632 I have raise my concern there. And I have been having this issue for a long time and hoping I get this settled soon with the help of the traders here like yourself, Tradmin, Binnie, LAB etc.

Above MACD closing below / above zero lever as confirmation, I have 2 charts below are they good examples of such confirmation?
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  • #27,634
  • Jun 15, 2014 10:08pm Jun 15, 2014 10:08pm
Charts on EURUSD and GBPUSD. Anyone for comment

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  • #27,635
  • Jun 16, 2014 5:43am Jun 16, 2014 5:43am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} We're all in the same position as yourself, it's just time and experience that lets you see the future! aka, trademin and binnie have shown us. Macd closing below zero surely is a confirmation of a sell trade if the moving averages / candles are looking bearish too. i think the difference is as you say it is not a signal and not a signal by itself, just another confirmation. If the macd is red and below zero, i'm not looking to buy..not until it goes green and maybe looks like a RB.. Trading 4 pairs is enough to get a trade a day including...
Hi Richard,

You mentioned this in your reply -
"You don't have to sit in front of your computer with a finger on the mouse waiting for a candle to move, because you have already spotted the move and put a pending order in or just waiting for price to hit your target."

Can you show me with details how you do this? Please. Thank you.

Nicholas
  • #27,636
  • Jun 16, 2014 6:45am Jun 16, 2014 6:45am
Hi Richard and Trademin,

It happened again today and this time I have posted 2 chart to show you what I mean.
Chart 1
Attached Image


Chart 2 - Market started moving
Attached Image


This move occurred withing the same 4hr candle from chart 1. It occurred 2 hours later and within 30mins it has moved 29pips and more than half way to my TP (on TL). When do I enter? On Chart 1 there was no confirmation to enter and on Chart 2, ok, we seen the MACD moving down but it was so fast and I did not see it coming there and them. Richard said something to the effect to set the trade so that it will trigger when the price is hit. But there is no confirmation and at what level should I set the entry price? This is question I have been asking again and again. And in my last 3-4 posts, I am asking the same question, same issue. This post here I am using charts to illustrate my concern. I hope you guys can understand what I am trying to ask. This is one area that has been disturbing me for months and which I feel I have missed so many trades with EURUSD.

Thanks guys for your patience.
  • #27,637
  • Edited 12:16pm Jun 16, 2014 11:27am | Edited 12:16pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks for your reply again. Such great patience. I am not sure if I have understood you correctly or maybe I have not been specific enough about what I really wanted to ask. I am still on the second trade and would want to understand it correctly before I miss a trade like this again. You mentioned that you were already in profit when the second trade occur. Please can we ignore the first trade as I have missed that and trying to enter on the second trade. Question 1: I remember from the first video (on page 1 of this forum) ...y to use...

Hi nic73,
«. Please can we ignore the first trade as I have missed that and trying to enter on the second trade.”

Just giving my opinion on a partial view is very difficult for me to do. But let’s give a hint here that what gave a trigger to all this (your second trade) was just before, when the macd made a divergence, the pair made a breakout ,went below the ma, a pullback (on the 1hr chart), and so on…your second trade, did got back to the 8ema before going down again, the spread between the 8 and the 21ema, was just starting to widening(then maybe some more room to go down) ,and the bulls had already capitulated(express by the 2 large red candles coming down from my second trade)so a possible continuation was in the card, and the set up of breaking the support was conceivable.

Those two trades were so closed that the first one was loaded and implied a strong will to go south, speed was already in alert, so considering only the second trade would imply already the intense will for the market to go down.


"I saw the spike on the previous candle and thought the market is moving south (yes I did anticipate that). BUT I did not take the trade as I was waiting for the first 4hr candle to close for confirmation."

The anticipation was that the market would go back to the 8ema which is already a representation of a fast market. I didn’t see a firm will to go back up to the 21ema , but just sideway, confusion action was expressed .But then, instead, it was just a whip lash to the 8ema, saying “I’m not done yet with the down move!” One has to think very rapidly on that one!
You are getting to It since you saw the spike. but you know a spike gives a part in evaluating a trade.

My guess, is to see the big picture, yea I know it could get confusing sometime, but I like to do that, I feel more confident when I can see, the history, the rhythm.=so I am getting an anticipation and act confidently on it.
I found a way to simplify (for me) all the rules, and the rhythm and the compare it what going on with the market and see if something is going to happen soon. And when I don’t see anything, well, I don’t get involve in a trade.
I always have problem when I try to pinpoint just an area on the chart. As I said, I prefer to see the rhythm of the market as a whole.

Question 1:
I remember from the first video (on page 1 of this forum) that one has to wait for price to pull back to the 21ema or half way between 8 and 21ema, otherwise it is risky (because SL could be too far away from 21ema).:


A while ago I found a way to see it, (I am visual!) so It could get easier for me to see the big picture.
I used a stairway to do that! Yes! Using a stairway! But so many thing came to my mind when I took the time to observe what is happening when someone is climbing the stairs, what it involved in doing so, what would happen if the stair was badly constructed, what lead to the second stair,etc…

Question 2:
I saw the spike on the previous candle and thought the market is moving south (yes I did anticipate that). BUT I did not take the trade as I was waiting for the first 4hr candle to close for confirmation.

=> I can't enter right from the moving away candle, or can I?
=> Do I wait for a pull back move away?
What is needed to be said is that the move you are talking about is from the 8ema, not the 21ema, which is from where action should be taken from. Taking action from the 8ema is a bit more risky, since it goes faster.

Could you imagine that a stairway is just a pile of pieces but properly set together, when it is done, it is called a stairway…I sound ridiculous! But anyway, since I am visual, it helped me anyway. - Same with the strategy: a pile of info’s that needs to be set properly in order to work properly (or climb to the second floor! J)


It is a comparison with real world, with something visual. I have made a document about it. It is not perfect, but it gives me a good representation of what the market is doing.

It is about market behaviours but by using the 8, 21, 89, 200, 365. I guess I needed to be familiar with a lot of things (my view). And more are examples, more is the comprehension. I enjoyed it when I found that comparison; it doesn’t suit everyone, but if it could help anyone, well, be my guest! If you go there ( POST: 24836-"The Way I See It") don’t forget that it is my view only, it is not completed and need some refreshing thoughts, but the idea is there, a picture worth a thousand words.

But what is interesting is when I turn the chart into a stairway!
A “slow motion” of a TC would be expressed by a 1hr chart.


"My question is what is the technique to enter a fast moving market?"

A simple answer to that question couldn’t be appropriate, so many things are involved in this question, but to visualise just a bit would be to use a I period ATR. If the step is suddenly quite high, it would means something is going on and needs attention. But let’s say that it is very hard to get into a train when it speeds up! But if I look at a chart, it means that the price rides on the 8ema, and that it is a fast moving market and as per the rules and normally not sticking for a long time to it, price will tend to get back to the 21ema. ---But in your case, the market was so fast that it went away from the 8ema!-that’s fast! I can imagine some train rubbers sitting on their horses watching the train passing by! (And a consolidation on the chart! J ). I can see them waiting a curve so the train could, apparently slow down a bit! (Price is going back to 8ema!) So they can get into the train- but it is still fast! Well, just a partial view on my thoughts!



Any question welcome,
Yvon
  • #27,638
  • Jun 16, 2014 4:37pm Jun 16, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi Richard, You reply prompted me to be a little more precise with expressing what I was really concern about. I try to put this in words without a chart. You know with the trades I have asked Tradmin since last week.... I saw the candle formation and thought this market could be moving soon (anticipation). But you know many cases with EURUSD the market move just so fast...... if you read post 27,632 I have raise my concern there. And I have been having this issue for a long time and hoping I get this settled soon with the help of the traders...

Sorry i have been busy with important things, the World cup and beer...


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1402886525


I'll try to answer this.

That to me looks like the classic BPM...so that 2nd red candle after your green arrow is the trade i would take if i was watching the charts.

When price is pulling back to the 8/21 then you anticipate that move down.

But its so easy after the event. You just have to start believing your analysis.
  • #27,639
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:53pm Jun 16, 2014 8:53pm
Hi Richard and Trademin,

Thanks for all your replies. Richards, World cup was never in my mind because I am not a fan of football. But you are still keeping an eye on forex, aren't you?

I think I have been asking very difficult questions. Quite a fair bit of info there. I should need time to read and try to digest them. Don't be surprise I could be posting the same question again since I don't think I can fully understand. Please don't mind .

Have a great time.
  • #27,640
  • Jun 17, 2014 12:56am Jun 17, 2014 12:56am
NZDUSD counter trend. Please comment. Thanks
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