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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,281
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:36pm Jun 12, 2014 6:36pm
Quoting srt
{quote} You post when & which trades you're in. You post your results. And you post when you're in a drawdown. Not many on FF that can say the same.
Thanks friend.Honestly is good in trading.It allows one to say I made a mistake and take a loss and continue to improve.
I am very aware of my mistakes and make conscious effort to improve and learn from them.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,282
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:50pm Jun 12, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting KADC
Davit, with your system, wouldn't the correct place to short NZD/USD be ~0.87? You shorted from weekly trend line resistance which made sense (I did as well), but I'm not sure why you held onto it when it broke back above (I got out but didn't reverse and go long like I'd have liked because I was cooking a turkey then went to bed). My weekly and monthly charts suggest even higher targets. 0.885 the 2011 high, and 0.9915 the 27% extension of the full range (off the monthly chart I posted, sorry) if .885 doesn't hold, but 0.87 is a good short-term...
Agree based on my system I should of gone long not short. I thought perhaps erroneously that NZD was already priced in the hike but I was wrong.
I am sure we will see 85 soon.Maybe 2weeks most
Regards

I know GBP is on steroid but Interest raise is still months away perhaps 6-8
This is classic impulse Elliot Wave when everyone feels good about their trades
Here is a reality check
GU at 170 and EU at 3550-36 does not work.Too much out of sink correlation there.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,283
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:51pm Jun 12, 2014 7:51pm
dairy auction on 17th june could make NZD fall...
  • #1,284
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:19am Jun 13, 2014 1:19am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Agree based on my system I should of gone long not short. I thought perhaps erroneously that NZD was already priced in the hike but I was wrong. I am sure we will see 85 soon.Maybe 2weeks most Regards I know GBP is on steroid but Interest raise is still months away perhaps 6-8 This is classic impulse Elliot Wave when everyone feels good about their trades Here is a reality check GU at 170 and EU at 3550-36 does not work.Too much out of sink correlation there.
When I got up I took a scalp long NZD/USD and rode it the rest of the way to 0.87 -- boy, did it ever take its sweet time moving up those last few pips -- and now I'm short, but hourly RSI gave a lot of ground with little movement in price action which often indicates continuation in the near term, plus Kiwi price is sitting on top of the former channel and the Aussie is in a similar situation so (if I can ever log in -- the server has been down since the midnight reset apparently -- and now technical support is down as well) I'm going to be prepared for them to potentially break higher without pullbacks. I missed most of the Yen's move in 2012/2013 waiting for pullbacks that never materialized so no pullback on a daily move is nothing by comparison.

EUR/JPY and USD/JPY are approaching shorting entry points but until I can log in there's nothing I can do about it.

The USD Index is at pivot support and if that breaks (which would coincide with seasonality) it trumps most everything else as far as USD-based pairs are concerned. I am long USD (or trying to be) at the moment for the sake of pullbacks after such strong moves (and for the Euro to hit the support target of 1.35) but a reversal could be eminent which jives with what's happening with the Kiwi and Aussie.

The Pound is nearly at the 2009 high and breaking above that leaves a lot of upside potential, particularly with talk of raising rates. I prefer range bound trading to breaking record highs but the Aussie and Kiwi (in particular) are travelling North within channels so I'm more comfortable riding them upwards if their resistance and the USD Index support breaks.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,285
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:42am Jun 13, 2014 1:42am
Quoting Zamar
dairy auction on 17th june could make NZD fall...
See www.globaldairytrade.info
  • #1,286
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:44am Jun 13, 2014 1:44am
Quoting Davit
running 10% DD Deleted all my limit GU shorts prior of news except one 6880 -50pips running at 1x So no biggy Overall even though I am in red I feel good about my trades. Could of done better job on my entries and its lesson dully noted not to repeat. Added new Short 2x G/CHF short at 5210 Inspired by the great portrait painters of old, Pierre Gonnord creates large scale portraits of people considered to be outsiders: the destitute, homeless, gypsies, and the blind. {image}

Agreed - we should have been long technically, I saw this clearly on NU as well, but instead also went on to weekly charts and shorted from there....the Daily charts show that this upside move could push it down. I exited NU shorts and had another sell order which triggered with news

All the best my friend, when this happens it only makes one stronger and allows you to take a deeper look. Similar thing happened to me last month, but in the end I think it forced me to time my entries better
  • #1,287
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:41am Jun 13, 2014 5:41am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yeah.. lol ... I suppose. I have absolutely nothing but my gut to base this on (well the index charts hint at it) but, I just get this feeling the GBP news will be good to really good and we'll see the GBP start running up again. I'm not 100% convinced the GU bull run is over. At least I haven't seen it on my charts yet. It could be of course but...guess we'll see in coming weeks. Not that I care really. The way I trade overall trend doesn't matter "too" much. Just a topic of general conversation.
Nice gut Chris!! good call. I was flat on GU as well, just 2 much unkown as to what they will say with Drahgi and Carney. From my perspective the market priced in rates for first quarter 15, now probably priced in last quarter 14. All is good brother.
  • #1,288
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:22am Jun 13, 2014 7:22am
I'm watching 40 RSI (black dashed) on the 8-hour USD Index closely as it has been a frequent indication of reversal when reacted to, else it is currently confined to a descending channel (solid red). When the USD Index resumes its downtrend I don't want to be bullish on the USD side of any USD pairs.


USD Index 8-hour
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,289
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:15am Jun 13, 2014 8:15am
This isn't a pair I'd been watching, unfortunately, but GBP/AUD is responding beautifully and I'd say is prime to short from it's current level down to 1.80250 without much concern.

GBP/AUD 8-hour
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,290
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:28am Jun 13, 2014 8:28am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Nice gut Chris!! good call. I was flat on GU as well, just 2 much unkown as to what they will say with Drahgi and Carney. From my perspective the market priced in rates for first quarter 15, now probably priced in last quarter 14. All is good brother.
LOL... The same gut that made me close my rack of 6 GJ shorts in profit 5 minutes prior to Carney's speech. Sometimes, instinct is everything.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,291
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:35am Jun 13, 2014 8:35am
Quoting KADC
This isn't a pair I'd been watching, unfortunately, but GBP/AUD is responding beautifully and I'd say is prime to short from it's current level down to 1.80250 without much concern. GBP/AUD 8-hour {image}
That's a good spot there KADC. Not only was I watching it a few days ago, I had a rack of 4 PO longs poised right at the bottom. A couple very well meaning friends that I respect as traders advised against them so I canceled them all....lol. But looking for the swing short on them now.

I'd say from around here to the 23.6% and higher would be a good spacing (for scaling in) for some sell limits on this pair.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,292
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:06am Jun 13, 2014 9:06am
Davit, thanks for sharing your method.
I am reading the thread not through yet.
I haven't used your fibo tool yet, will learn soon.
I just want to share my homework, analysed my AUDJPY trade.
Any comments will be highly appreciated.
Thanks for your time and effort to run this thread.
Hats off to you!

Green pips to ALL!
Love and peace!

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  • #1,293
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:13am Jun 13, 2014 9:13am
Last try to short Geppy: 172.980, risking 25. TP 172.799. Have been stopped out too often ... but when I start to get emotional about my trades it is usually a bad sign. The whole week was trash when it comes to trading.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,294
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:22am Jun 13, 2014 9:22am
Quoting xiaoxin
Davit, thanks for sharing your method. I am reading the thread not through yet. I haven't used your fibo tool yet, will learn soon. I just want to share my homework, analysed my AUDJPY trade. Any comments will be highly appreciated. Thanks for your time and effort to run this thread. Hats off to you! Green pips to ALL! Love and peace! {image} {image} {image} {image}
Excellent!! Very nice work xiaoxin. I like the way you viewed it on all important TF's, found RSI divergences and especially the way you used the 15M RSI for taking profit at a great point. Really great work! ...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,295
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:29am Jun 13, 2014 9:29am
Quoting Hickson
Last try to short Geppy: 172.980, risking 25. TP 172.799. Have been stopped out too often ... but when I start to get emotional about my trades it is usually a bad sign. The whole week was trash when it comes to trading.
That's the very best time to call it a week buddy. You're trading a dead pair right now imho. I managed to scalp 19 pips short on it from the very top early this morning. It's my favorite pair and I gave up on it over 4 hours ago. She might move a bit today, she might not but it's not worth the time and risk for me at this time on a Friday.

Good luck though man and don't worry, there's always next week.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,296
  • Edited 10:55am Jun 13, 2014 9:45am | Edited 10:55am
I pretty much stayed out of the market this week.

Late in the week I did total two trades, EUR/CAD AUD/CHF

One trade -25 pips A/CHF
second trade +57 pips E/CAD
ending the week with +32 pips

had as much as 2% DD max

Regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,297
  • Jun 13, 2014 10:01am Jun 13, 2014 10:01am
Quoting albchr
{quote} That's the very best time to call it a week buddy. You're trading a dead pair right now imho. I managed to scalp 19 pips short on it from the very top early this morning. It's my favorite pair and I gave up on it over 4 hours ago. She might move a bit today, she might not but it's not worth the time and risk for me at this time on a Friday. Good luck though man and don't worry, there's always next week.
Out. Closed everything. Abysmal is an understatement for this weeks's trading. Time to take a break now.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,298
  • Jun 13, 2014 10:59am Jun 13, 2014 10:59am
albchr,
Thank you for your time and comment!

Have a nice weekend!!!
  • #1,299
  • Edited 1:59pm Jun 13, 2014 12:52pm | Edited 1:59pm
Sorry guys not being active lately.I am very focused on trading and at times it becomes distracting specially people sending PM's about trading etc.

Trades Summery

Current running trades
NU short 4x8550-55-Stiill active feel real good about NU/Tues 17 Milk Action (thanks Zamar/Ikdenk for heads up)
2x 8620 2x 8640 4x8660 2x8680
AU shorts 8x84 9370 9358 Still Open
AUD/CHF short 6x 8428-8395 Have to make a decision to close all CHF related trades since fundamentals are getting real weak on Euro.I will make that decision next week.Currently they are my worst performing trades.
Aud/CAD short 4x 1.220 209 Closed +40pips
AUD/J Short 2x 9583 Stopped out +2pps
G/CHF 2x short 5210 Huge losers that need to make decision next week
Added Trades
GU shorts 2x6963 2x 6948 1x6880 (limit trigger)

As my trading method I hold trades until

A. My SL is hit
B. Decision of the trade entered no longer valid (such as continued depreciation of Euro/CHF)

My bulk of -pips is on CHF otherwise my rest of my trades are doing ok.
I will make a decision next week.
I think I will come out with+pips on these latest batch of trades overall.My main orders are on NU and I may add more on Monday.
I feel confident about my positions and should they becomes losers that's part of territory.What matters how I end the month
Even how I end the quarter.Based on my profit projections I have June, July August as free months since I hit those numbers earlier then expected.


Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,300
  • Jun 13, 2014 2:37pm Jun 13, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting Davit
Sorry guys not being active lately.I am very focused on trading and at times it becomes distracting specially people sending PM's about trading etc. Trades Summery Current running trades NU short 4x8550-55-Stiill active feel real good about NU/Tues 17 Milk Action (thanks Zamar/Ikdenk for heads up) 2x 8620 2x 8640 4x8660 2x8680 AU shorts 8x84 9370 9358 Still Open AUD/CHF short 6x 8428-8395 Have to make a decision to close all CHF related trades since fundamentals are getting real weak on Euro.I will make that decision next week.Currently they are...


I love your statements, Davit!
Best wishes from Switzerland!
FXcube
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