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US Crude Oil with smart VSA and Dark Seasons [only]

  • #181
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:16am Jun 13, 2014 9:16am
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} not this yr it was nt, you've also mentioned May is a good time to buy May is one of the worst times to buy, best either to step aside or just scalp long or often selling is safer, although this yr and last have been rangebound not having a pop, but for accuracy of the thread it should be mentioned BTW i've been trading Oil for 6yrs and not just looking for patterns and nr know it like the back of my hand so not a newbie although i only trade Brent FWIW. i think you were abit harsh on Joe, a polite reminder of your rules, might of been...

Hello Carlsberg
As you trade Brent can you tell me if there are any threads on it with good information where I can learn about it.
  • #182
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:34am Jun 13, 2014 9:34am
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} not this yr it was nt, you've also mentioned May is a good time to buy May is one of the worst times to buy, best either to step aside or just scalp long or often selling is safer, although this yr and last have been rangebound not having a pop, but for accuracy of the thread it should be mentioned BTW i've been trading Oil for 6yrs and not just looking for patterns and nr know it like the back of my hand so not a newbie although i only trade Brent FWIW. i think you were abit harsh on Joe, a polite reminder of your rules, might of been more appropriate everyone trades differently and can add some experience, which is usually always welcomed, a bit of friction now and then is normal edit - its possibly more accurate to say - Oils market structure has changed in the last 2 yrs and should possibly not just be seen as an anomaly, its easy enough to see Oil's been rangebound ever since the March 2013 falls, so anytime is a buying season (for now) but how long it lasts though is anyone's guess, although presumably aslong as the Dow and S+P stay semi bullish Oils a nice trade once nr mastered, but hopefully anyone reading the thread, takes the time to learn its character and develop a sound method don't punt it, same as with any instrument
Quoting don555
{quote} Hello Carlsberg As you trade Brent can you tell me if there are any threads on it with good information where I can learn about it.
I am very much interested as well thanks!
  • #183
  • Edited 10:30am Jun 13, 2014 10:06am | Edited 10:30am
Quoting waleed.khan
After which I believe we will move up to 107.5 region...
Where have we so far capped out? After that leg was over; now this is the corrective wave and price has pulled back up from the 161.8 ext at 106.34 (and is battling it out for the upside (Plus this level also coincides with previous SR area; hence giving it more validity)...It will be interesting to see price action behavior here... if it holds this level then this could be the start of another 5 wave up or if it doesn't then vice versa...


Quoting atom3
There is something that looks very much like double top on 1 hour chart but it's not yet complete
Maybe? but this very similar price action to that off day before (june 10th) Price consolidating after a spike up... So far it seems that divergence is working on the oscillators to eventually make room for more up upside...

This is the horror of trading with buzz/panic... you never know when it will subside and there could be massive spike down!
  • #184
  • Jun 13, 2014 3:44pm Jun 13, 2014 3:44pm
Possible corrective wave in crude... after this new impulse leg should begin...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usoilm51.png Size: 31 KB
Attached Image
  • #185
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:06pm Jun 13, 2014 9:06pm
Quoting waleed.khan
Possible corrective wave in crude... after this new impulse leg should begin... {image} {image}
We are in a peak-out phase of the year for crude, even once it has peaked out I would not sell Crude, BUT, wait for Dec-End to invest for long term.

2nd post of this thread shows all the seasonal trends.

Have a nice weekend you all!
Hello World!
  • #186
  • Jun 14, 2014 5:52am Jun 14, 2014 5:52am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} {quote} I am very much interested as well thanks!

Is there anyone else who knows of a good info thread on brent.
  • #187
  • Jun 15, 2014 6:28pm Jun 15, 2014 6:28pm
Quoting waleed.khan
Possible corrective wave in crude... after this new impulse leg should begin... {image} {image}
could not undertand those waves logic, anyway im shorting at $107.35 (sl 107.89) tp $106.10

news are painting Iraq Crisis much worse than really is and this week Oil USA data should be positive for oil price,
at trade goes im gonna buy some new games at steam with last week profits ,

"Europa Universalis IV Complete Edition" or "Wargame Red Dragon" ?
  • #188
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:54am Jun 16, 2014 8:54am
i'm not sure there are any public forum threads for Brent,
there seems to be very little information available anywhere, i gave up looking after a few Goggle search's looking for a method or something useful some yrs ago,
i had a quick search the other day and there is still nothing of any use

apologies for not being able to add anything more useful, im sure its obvious why i cant
best just to watch and learn and then try various methods until something works
  • #189
  • Jun 16, 2014 3:10pm Jun 16, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting Carlsberg
i'm not sure there are any public forum threads for Brent, there seems to be very little information available anywhere, i gave up looking after a few Goggle search's looking for a method or something useful some yrs ago, i had a quick search the other day and there is still nothing of any use apologies for not being able to add anything more useful, im sure its obvious why i cant best just to watch and learn and then try various methods until something works
Price reversals and "Lower lows" or "Higher Highs" are very key in Oil Trading, oil dont consolidate too much like currencies that most of the time move between bands, Oil Price is very very sensitive to USA supply and Middle East situation, forget the USD Index and look more at VIX .

when you spot violent moves before the 2 rules i mentioned before there are most of the time great entries.
Fibionnacci H4 retracement work most of the time ""just"" when there are violent moves, if this not happens they are not respected,

just my 2 cents of watching Oil Price Action.
  • #190
  • Jun 17, 2014 8:56am Jun 17, 2014 8:56am
Quoting waleed.khan
Possible corrective wave in crude... after this new impulse leg should begin... {image} {image}

So far it seems that price consolidating in the support area of 106.4-106.1; this should be the end of the corrective wave I was talking about; although this target seems to have hit a day late... ( I think this is the problem with elliott waves in general; it is hard to predict each and every wave; but it can be done broadly with support and resistance areas...When I drew that chart I focused on the 5 minute chart; but due to the weekends gap up; the X wave top became higher and hence the target was hit a day later...but nonetheless the target was hit!

The corrective pattern can be traced nicely on the 1 hr chart... It is still premature to say all of this; as a new 5th impulse wave confirmation is needed with the start of an uptrend which will only happen once we start making higher high's and higher lows...

* Although one could have shorted at initial pullback; I personally did not take that trade as there is a strong bullish trend in place...rather wait for the support area in the blue zone; and see price action & volumes in that area and then go long again targeting the next resistance & fib ext area...I should state this again; a confirmation of the impulse wave is still not here; as we have not taken out the previous high; hence we could still go lower... but Brent is moving higher and the loonie seems to have reversed; so I am a little optimistic....
  • #191
  • Jun 17, 2014 9:13am Jun 17, 2014 9:13am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} So far it seems that price consolidating in the support area of 106.4-106.1; this should be the end of the corrective wave I was talking about; although this target seems to have hit a day late... ( I think this is the problem with elliott waves in general; it is hard to predict each and every wave; but it can be done broadly with support and resistance areas...When I drew that chart I focused on the 5 minute chart; but due to the weekends gap up; the X wave top became higher and hence the target was hit a day later...but nonetheless the...
Dear Waleed, what are your expectation of Higher high, is it going to touch 112 or 120. Currently i am short in it and facing a good loss. Should i hold till 112 or just hold these trades. I am talking about a little long term, say 1 or 2 months.
  • #192
  • Jun 17, 2014 9:24am Jun 17, 2014 9:24am
Quoting hamidshah.pk
{quote} Dear Waleed, what are your expectation of Higher high, is it going to touch 112 or 120. Currently i am short in it and facing a good loss. Should i hold till 112 or just hold these trades. I am talking about a little long term, say 1 or 2 months.
Hi Hamidshah

What was your entry point; if you don't mind telling me?

I'm a trader; and my views don't exceed more than 1 to 3 days and one week and 2 weeks would be stretching it...

I cannot tell you where price will be in august...but right now I am targeting 108-109 area as my first tp area and 110-11; if there is a 5th leg extension... and then hopefully see price retrace to 104 area... ( i still haven't done this analysis fairly) If your price falls in this spectrum then you may have a chance at liquidating at the pullback...

*but yeah prices are expected to be above $100 and could go to $116 also; it all depends on the iraqi situation; plus summer driving season and the hurricanes in the gulf coast this summer...

**this impulse leg has still not started also; as a new high has not been made; so all I have said above could all go hopefully in vain for you...
  • #193
  • Jun 17, 2014 9:43am Jun 17, 2014 9:43am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Hi Hamidshah What was your entry point; if you don't mind telling me? I'm a trader; and my views don't exceed more than 1 to 3 days and one week and 2 weeks would be stretching it... I cannot tell you where price will be in august...but right now I am targeting 108-109 area as my first tp area and 110-11; if there is a 5th leg extension... and then hopefully see price retrace to 104 area... ( i still haven't done this analysis fairly) If your price falls in this spectrum then you may have a chance at liquidating at the pullback... *but yeah...
My first entry was at 101.25 then gradually adding it, last entry was at the area of 105.5. Closed two positions at 107, and now holding 3 shorts. I am confused to hedge them because that means you have close them, as it already happened price touched 106 after i closed 2 shorts.
Just want to share a bitter past experience i was shorting Silver a few months back from 20 at the price of 22 contract expires and i started to add Longs and price goes below 20. So i bear the loss in both ways. That is why i am not changing the position in Crude. Still learning, hopefully someday i would be able to recover some loss.
  • #194
  • Jun 17, 2014 10:12am Jun 17, 2014 10:12am
Quoting hamidshah.pk
{quote} My first entry was at 101.25 then gradually adding it, last entry was at the area of 105.5. Closed two positions at 107, and now holding 3 shorts. I am confused to hedge them because that means you have close them, as it already happened price touched 106 after i closed 2 shorts. Just want to share a bitter past experience i was shorting Silver a few months back from 20 at the price of 22 contract expires and i started to add Longs and price goes below 20. So i bear the loss in both ways. That is why i am not changing the position in Crude....

Yes this is a very common story ( I initially used to do this too a lot )

I generally don't use hedging strategies and rather rely on stop losses... ultimately it is the same thing; the only difference is that hedging kind of feeds the ego by telling it "you were not wrong about your initial decision..."; I personally feel it is more better and humbling to admit your mistake and take the loss; and gear up for your next position...like this you will have more capital available to trade also as opposed to committing it to a hedge....

Although hedging does work; infact one can also make money out of it when the market is ranging! but apart from that I think it ultimately does more damage to ones forward bias etc...

In your case...you are now considering committing to hold onto your position for 2 months and day by day; see the position go against you and dent your account... but if you take the stop loss now; your loss can be minimized; plus you can actually profit by going long (if that has been established) and cover your losses...you understand where I am going with this??? There is nothing wrong with making mistakes; I personally have more losing trades than winning trades; but my winning trades overcompensate for the losses; due to a good risk:reward ratio....

Trick is to not commit more than 1-3% of your capital per trade...this way when your stop loss hits you only lose that amount... also this approach can make your trading very systematic and based on probability...you know you are going to get things wrong; but that's okay because eventually if your system is good and tested the odds will go in your favor...
  • #195
  • Edited 10:39am Jun 17, 2014 10:25am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting hamidshah.pk
{quote} Still learning, hopefully someday i would be able to recover some loss.
Don't ever approach the market with this mindset.... I can guarantee you will lose more eventually!

You have to approach each day as a new day... let bygones be bygones... revenge trading leads to much more loss ( take the example of the psychology behind an inverse head and shoulder pattern) Your first bottom you lose a little; then you recover (build confidence and then become over confident by trading larger sizes; but you get a bigger dent (head); you then start revenge trading more; with trading higher but one is so emotionally beaten (2nd shoulder) that they can never recover that loss and ultimate lose out and blow their account... does it make sense - sorry for painting such a picture but it is the truth ?
  • #196
  • Jun 17, 2014 11:00am Jun 17, 2014 11:00am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Don't ever approach the market with this mindset.... I can guarantee you will lose more eventually! You have to approach each day as a new day... let bygones be bygones... revenge trading leads to much more loss ( take the example of the psychology behind an inverse head and shoulder pattern) Your first bottom you lose a little; then you recover (build confidence and then become over confident by trading larger sizes; but you get a bigger dent (head); you then start revenge trading more; with trading higher but one is so emotionally beaten...
Thank you so much for your inputs, i will definitely consider them.
  • #197
  • Jun 17, 2014 11:10am Jun 17, 2014 11:10am
Quoting hamidshah.pk
{quote} Thank you so much for your inputs, i will definitely consider them.
You are welcome...

Okay; I don't like this pinbar on the hourly chart so far; it looks kind of dangerous and could possibly (60%) work in your favor... if price retraces lower and breaks the 1st support area; then that extends the corrective pattern to perhaps a double extension....and price could target 104.9 and then start its 5th impulse wave.... if not then market structure needs to be followed for the uptrend...
  • #198
  • Jun 17, 2014 11:25am Jun 17, 2014 11:25am
Quoting acidguy
{quote} could not undertand those waves logic, anyway im shorting at $107.35 (sl 107.89) tp $106.10 news are painting Iraq Crisis much worse than really is and this week Oil USA data should be positive for oil price, at trade goes im gonna buy some new games at steam with last week profits , "Europa Universalis IV Complete Edition" or "Wargame Red Dragon" ?
tp hitted and Got "Rise of Nations Extended Edition" , its an awesome classic strategy game now remastered .
now price at 106.80 look very undecided, tomorrow data will hint direction, i think will try to touch 107.60 again before collapsing to 105 before rise to 109.
  • #199
  • Edited 3:01pm Jun 17, 2014 1:43pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} tp hitted and Got "Rise of Nations Extended Edition" , its an awesome classic strategy game now remastered . now price at 106.80 look very undecided, tomorrow data will hint direction, i think will try to touch 107.60 again before collapsing to 105 before rise to 109.
Rise of nations is great only if they did improved it's graphic a bit... aaaand about crude i am waiting tomorrow's inventory report and actually hoping to be negative so i can go long
  • #200
  • Jun 19, 2014 7:51am Jun 19, 2014 7:51am
Why is everyone so quite here ? ok then i will say my plan and you can give me some advice about it. So yesterday inventories turned out to be as expected and i couldn't go long neither want to short it, instead now i am waiting for a drop to a nice level, which will attract buyers like $105 or slightly below it and go long heavily with target 108.5 or 110 depending on the fundamental situation. So what do you think ?
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