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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #401
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:43am Jun 13, 2014 7:43am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Isn't item 2 going to be premature, for buys cci 210 going above -100 line? Isn't that focus going to keep you out of many perfectly valid sells as the cci bars bounce in and around the -100 level?
We should write an indicator that puts a black rectangle over the +100 to -100 zone so we don't see what's happening in that ranging zone. Only when the trend CCI pokes it head above or below the black box do we take notice.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #402
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:04am Jun 13, 2014 8:04am
Quoting pres78
{quote} We should write an indicator that puts a black rectangle over the +100 to -100 zone so we don't see what's happening in that ranging zone. Only when the trend CCI pokes it head above or below the black box do we take notice.
Jokes aside this might well mean that trades would be taken at break of B point and not C area.
  • #403
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:07am Jun 13, 2014 8:07am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Jokes aside this might well mean that trades would be taken at break of B point and not C area.
Perhaps, if the trend CCI does not go back above or below +100/-100 until the break of C then there was no trade at B anyway is there? If there was real interest coming to the market at B then the CCI 210 should spike back into trend (or have stayed in trend).

More testing ahead I suppose.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #404
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:26am Jun 13, 2014 8:26am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Isn't item 2 going to be premature, for buys cci 210 going above -100 line? Isn't that focus going to keep you out of many perfectly valid sells as the cci bars bounce in and around the -100 level?
I can't believe this!!!

This is just too spooky to talk about!!!

Mr V. just asked me the above question so I thought I will go and find a chart to illustrate what I meant and guess what?????

Found the perfect chart to answer MR V's question but not only that it demonstrates perfectly what I believe we should be looking for going forward from here.A 15 min CCI buy signal followed by 2 perfect ABCD entries, couldn't be a better example, bloody amazing.

Here is the perfect setup for a very high probability high RR trade. All we need is a 15 min CCI turn in the direction of the trend in a strong trending 15 min pair like GBPUSD. These 2 entries could be here for a very long time because GBPUSD is trending up the page very strongly, who knows when it will stop??? I know I know what goes up has gotta come down but its trending up for a reason and who knows when that will become invalided?? Of course it could turn straight around and head back down the page but so what?? At least we had a go for very little risk at catching the last 1 min reversal back with the Daily trend.

And guess what? If it does turn round and head back then take the next 15 min CCI turn up and the next and the next until you catch the little rascal.

But first to answer Mr V's question what I meant was once the 210 CCI has crossed the -100 line its a buy signal on the 15 min CCI and if you were trading 15 min charts you would be buying. But we don't want to risk 20 or 30 pips on a 15 min entry, no need to as there's no better time than to look for 2 buy entries in our 1 minute. And hey presto there they are!!

Couple of notes about that chart have a look at the upward slope on the 15min CCI (210) its showing us that momentum is turning on the 15 min chart so look out for a reversal on 1 minute chart. Also note how the 100lwma also makes a perfect saucer shape and price crosses it nicely as confirmation that a 1 minute reversal is on the cards so take next 2 1 minute CCI (14) signals and away you go.

Hope that answers your queery MR V.Also hope everyone can see the enormous potential of buying 1 minute reversals back with the 15 min trend on a strong trending daily pair. Hopefully we are catching the last 1 minute reversal back with the daily trend??

Who knows but we are giving it our best shot by buying 2 one minute ABCD's immediately after the 15 min CCI turn as hopefully we are in this next daily drive up for a 10 pip risk which by the way we could put to BE in about 5 pips. Risk off the table, job done. Now whether price carries on up forever or turns straight round? Who cares less with our risk off the table we've nothing to lose.

Anyway I'm ranting and raving with excitement just can't believe the universe delivered me that chart??

Great question Mr V. great timing too.

Watch this space this week end as I will be posting my completed trading plan on how to catch the last 1 min reversal back with the daily trends!!

Watch this space this is going to be awesome!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #405
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:33am Jun 13, 2014 8:33am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} I can't believe this!!! This is just too spooky to talk about!!! Mr V. just asked me the above question so I thought I will go and find a chart to illustrate what I meant and guess what????? Found the perfect chart to answer MR V's question but not only that it demonstrates perfectly what I believe we should be looking for going forward from here.A 15 min CCI buy signal followed by 2 perfect ABCD entries, couldn't be a better example, bloody amazing. Here is the perfect setup for a very high probability high RR trade. All we need is a 15...
That second yellow line is great. CCI210 hit +100, retrace below +100, CCI 14 retrace to -100 and boom both hit +100 on the same bar (second yellow line). Daily trend CCI above +100. Nice stuff.

I am actually playing with this very thing but also having the equivalent of a 1hr and 4hr 14 CCI on my chart and when they say uptrend and we get our CCI210 and 14's saying uptrend it makes for great trades.

Wasn't going to release this just yet but since Clive is heading in a similar direction and Vantage already is using some higher TF confirmations why not throw it out now.

Very, very powerful stuff when all trend CCI's are above +100 and we get that CCI 14 retrace / burst back into trend.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #406
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:45am Jun 13, 2014 8:45am
Quoting pres78
{quote} That second yellow line is great. CCI210 hit +100, retrace below +100, CCI 14 retrace to -100 and boom both hit +100 on the same bar (second yellow line). Daily trend CCI above +100. Nice stuff. I am actually playing with this very thing but also having the equivalent of a 1hr and 4hr 14 CCI on my chart and when they say uptrend and we get our CCI210 and 14's saying uptrend it makes for great trades. Wasn't going to release this just yet but since Clive is heading in a similar direction and Vantage already is using some higher TF confirmations...
Hi Pres78

I knew where you were going with it, use to have a 3 CCI system originally putting all 3 CCI's on the same page too. But then we developed the top trenders indy and sort of made the bottom CCI redundant but heres the thing. Consider this??

Price can only go up or down.

Therefore if we can identify a place on the chart where it turns up for the last time back with the daily trend and only risk 10 pips??

How big is our potential RR???

So when will that all important last turn up happen?? And more importantly how can we identify it when it does???

Thats easy, find yourself a strong trending daily chart, top 8, then wait till its trending strongly on the 15 min top 8, then just buy the next 15 min CCI turn back with the trend HL CCI turn if an uptrend and LH CCI turn if its a down trend and Bob's your uncle you've got it!!!

Now add to that take the first two 1 min CCI turns that follow that 15 min CCI turn and you're in for as little as 10 pip risk and at BE asap with a possible 500 pip run on a daily chart??? .

Now thats what I call trading!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #407
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:48am Jun 13, 2014 8:48am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} But first to answer Mr V's question what I meant was once the 210 CCI has crossed the -100 line its a buy signal on the 15 min CCI and if you were trading 15 min charts you would be buying.
Why? Look at how many times the trend CCI moves above -100 or below +100 just to re-enter the trend. Look at your Daily chart and the trend CCI. Look at the dips below and then back above as we retace and continue upward. While I agree that the move above signal slowing downtrend and possible trend change but until we see the first spikes of trend agreement to the +100 it just seems too risky.

I have seen many examples where the CCI 210 moves above -100 and even climbs above 0, price moves above the MA but it is not sustained and we drop back below resuming the short trend.

Anyway I am still testing and will be excited to see where this goes for you Clive. Keep er up!

I should add that where I think your headed is that you wait for the 15min CCI210 to move above -100 in your example on a pair where by doing that it is possibly heading back in line with the Daily trend? So the move above -100 is heading back in line with the Daily? Looking for an initial early entry as you anticipate the 15min heading back into the bigger trend?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #408
  • Jun 13, 2014 10:43am Jun 13, 2014 10:43am
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Good evening Clive and all of the other valued contributors,

Apologies for gatecrashing, but I have been following this thread with great interest for the past couple of weeks and have been using the principle components of Clive's excellent set-up for the past few days with some sound results; as an example, the attached chart shows a trade taken on the DAX 1M a short while ago, I bailed after taking 20 pips. Entry was at the close of the candle on the red vertical line, as you will see, both CCI histos were giving strong buy signals. I have found that by being patient - very difficult and my greatest weakness!! - this set-up with the CCI histos aligning as per the guidance of pres78, with the confluence of the price and moving averages on the chart gives great confidence in taking the trade.

Clive, pres79 and Vantage, many thanks for your invaluable input, I will follow Clive's thread with great interest to see how things develop, although, I think that any tinkering with the basic approach that has been established will be just mild finessing.

hoping that you all enjoy a great weekend.

Cheers

AlanAttachment
  • #409
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:22am Jun 13, 2014 11:22am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I should add that where I think your headed is that you wait for the 15min CCI210 to move above -100 in your example on a pair where by doing that it is possibly heading back in line with the Daily trend? So the move above -100 is heading back in line with the Daily? Looking for an initial early entry as you anticipate the 15min heading back into the bigger trend?
That is exactly what I mean my friend, that if we are trading a 15 min pair that is "strong trender" from my top 8 trenders, then we should perceive the cross of the -100 line as a buy signal back with the 15 min trend. But rather than just take the 15 min signal wait for it to follow the slope (yellow line on my chart above) as this denotes the momentum is shifting back with the 15 min trend.

Then take the first 2 1 min CCI (14) signals -100 crossing up to enter with smaller stops and get to BE quickly.I would consider this a very low risk entry as following the 15 min trend as momentum is shifting back with the trend. Very low risk because the stops are small and we can get to BE quickly as not expecting price to come back, but if it does we are at BE.

Also has the benefit that we can now hold the trade on the 15 min chart and if it happens to also be a strong trending Daily pair maybe move it up to the daily charts. Typically just hold until daily HA candles turn red then trail up daily candle until stopped out. Have a look at some of the strong trending Daily charts with HA candles and you can get well over 500 pips sometimes.

Thats what I will be looking into when I catch a 15 min CCI turn back with the trend. By the way I would trade the 1 min trend resulting from the 15 min CCI turn and bank all trades apart from the first one or two that I got on early in the turn and see if they survive the following retracement. Strong trenders should n't retrace much more than about 50% in MHO.

Well thats the plan when I catch a 15 min strong trender.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #410
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:40am Jun 13, 2014 11:40am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} That is exactly what I mean my friend.
See Clive I am not as slow as you thought Eh!

Well I will watch with interest as I continue by backtesting and live (paper trading) testing with what I am playing around with. While you may have an idea what I am up to I am adding some of my own twists to the plan being build around what I am testing that some may (or may not) find helping in both pulling low risk entries but also squeezing as many pips as we can out of the runner trades when we get them.

A lot of good things going on both here and in the background. Time will tell how this all pans out but I think things are moving along nicely. Vantage has laid out a great simple step by step guide that anyone can take and pull some nice trades from the charts on almost a daily basis.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #411
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:03pm Jun 13, 2014 4:03pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Jokes aside this might well mean that trades would be taken at break of B point and not C area.
...FINALLY THE LIGHT DAWNS...wonderful.
  • #412
  • Jun 14, 2014 1:32am Jun 14, 2014 1:32am
Hi Clive

It remains to be seen if the tangent that is being taken will work, for buys cci 210 crosses of -100 line I think might give lots of false early signals or as pres78 pointed out on your 2nd yellow line (see above chart) a normal system trade anyway. With a strong D trending pair like gu per your charts you can have 3-5 days, whatever, of CT price moves. You have to wait for the flow on lower TF's to get back into line with the D, that can take hours or days to come right. Of course there will be the occasional entry that works because there has to be, the question will be how many failed attempts to get the one that does work. But then you say you only need the one 500 pip trade to wipe everything out, against that you might have to rethink stops to ensure the volatility around a turn doesn't take you out, it would most likely be a completely different system.

For now I'll be sticking to the essentials of the method as per the posts in the last few pages.

Clive that whole focus on one plan until you have researched and PROVEN something else is an improvement didn't last very long.
  • #413
  • Jun 14, 2014 1:45am Jun 14, 2014 1:45am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Pres78 I knew where you were going with it, use to have a 3 CCI system originally putting all 3 CCI's on the same page too. But then we developed the top trenders indy and sort of made the bottom CCI redundant but heres the thing. Consider this?? Price can only go up or down. Therefore if we can identify a place on the chart where it turns up for the last time back with the daily trend and only risk 10 pips?? How big is our potential RR??? So when will that all important last turn up happen?? And more importantly how can we identify it...
That trade you refer to with a 10 pip stop would have been taken out.

How do you identify the turn places back into trend, as I believe theres nothing new in trading lets say proven SR levels and W pivots. See charts.

But you don't have to catch the absolute high or low in a move, its the bits in the middle. 2 solid system 20 pip trades a day at 2% risk 10 pip stop gives you 8% a day. That's a crazy number. Yes every so often you'll get a system trade at a turn level that goes through the roof. But its the bread and butter trades that will keep you sane whilst the monster trade comes.

The home run is the wow, what happened to getting on base at every bat? Yes I did see Moneyball recently.
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  • #414
  • Jun 14, 2014 1:48am Jun 14, 2014 1:48am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Why? Look at how many times the trend CCI moves above -100 or below +100 just to re-enter the trend. Look at your Daily chart and the trend CCI. Look at the dips below and then back above as we retace and continue upward. While I agree that the move above signal slowing downtrend and possible trend change but until we see the first spikes of trend agreement to the +100 it just seems too risky. I have seen many examples where the CCI 210 moves above -100 and even climbs above 0, price moves above the MA but it is not sustained and we drop...
Agreed.
  • #415
  • Jun 14, 2014 1:58am Jun 14, 2014 1:58am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} If you are going to trade everything in sight yes I'd say you'll need a lot of luck. If you are going to trade a specific set up with a specific direction taking maybe 2 trades in a session I'd say you are taking what the big boys are doing (moving in a trend) and moving the odds in your favour by timing entries when short term flow in line with D. Let me take (hand on heart) the very first days pa I looked for. If after 13 May a trader could not identify that the odds for the 14th are down then he has serious problems. When the flow down...
Clive having a sense of deja vu. This wasn't in answer to a question of yours but it still applies.
  • #416
  • Jun 14, 2014 2:34am Jun 14, 2014 2:34am
Hi Clive

I'm not sure if I can help further here. Try as I might you seem to be wanting to go off on a tangent every 2nd day and I don't want to be the jerk that's jumping on you from a dizzy height. I still don't think you realise what you have, so I will focus on the following:

As per several recent posts I will do a quick daily assessment for identified proven SR levels on D charts, I will be aware of W pivots and prices reaction to them, I will be aware of 1hr flow (whether it be for CT or resumption of trend), I will be aware of the size of the run that has occurred already in the day. There are obviously more general trading ideas etc etc but you cannot list them all.

With that in mind entry requirements:

- cci 210 hit -100 +100
- pa below/above ma's
- angle and/or separation of ma's
- abc
- currency meter strength/weakness confirms
- cci 14 to retrace to -100 or +100, or 200 points on scale
- ha candle colour change back to trend
- stops 10-15 pips, 2.5%

Looking for first 2 trades in session.

I think that's about it.

Thanks Clive you got my interest back in 1 min, all the very best.
  • #417
  • Jun 14, 2014 3:27am Jun 14, 2014 3:27am
Hi Clive,

You started this thread called "Trading is as simple as ABCD", but then it quickly fell into some sort of price lagging methodology.
If you would like, I will take one of your trades and show you what it looks like from the ABCD perspective

Some sort of CCI based trade?:

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Same trade but this time as "ABCD"
Exactly when you bought we had a perfect ABCD with max volume on D, therefore SELL!

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Trade is at BE and almost hit target. The rectangle shows where you exited the trade for a loss.

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I have never, ever had any "luck" with any method that is based on price proxy.
I thought I would share. All the best.
  • #418
  • Jun 14, 2014 6:39am Jun 14, 2014 6:39am
Just read this elsewhere and couldn't agree more:

Picking tops and bottoms in market is a fools game.

It can be done, but the road is long and treacherous...and when all boils down, there are a lot easier ways to make money.
  • #419
  • Jun 14, 2014 6:50am Jun 14, 2014 6:50am
Quoting Mingary
Hi Clive, You started this thread called "Trading is as simple as ABCD", but then it quickly fell into some sort of price lagging methodology. If you would like, I will take one of your trades and show you what it looks like from the ABCD perspective Some sort of CCI based trade?: {image} Same trade but this time as "ABCD" Exactly when you bought we had a perfect ABCD with max volume on D, therefore SELL! {image} Trade is at BE and almost hit target. The rectangle shows where you exited the trade for a loss. {image} I have never, ever had any "luck"...
Perfect!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #420
  • Edited 10:08am Jun 14, 2014 8:10am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting Mingary
Hi Clive, You started this thread called "Trading is as simple as ABCD", but then it quickly fell into some sort of price lagging methodology. If you would like, I will take one of your trades and show you what it looks like from the ABCD perspective Some sort of CCI based trade?: {image} Same trade but this time as "ABCD" Exactly when you bought we had a perfect ABCD with max volume on D, therefore SELL! {image} Trade is at BE and almost hit target. The rectangle shows where you exited the trade for a loss. {image} I have never, ever had any "luck"...

What Clive is using for his ABCD pattern with CCI confirmation of momentum/trend is very different from your ABCD's so his title perhaps was a bit misleading for others who trade ABCD's the way you do. It did not turn into a CCI thread (or price lagging methodology as you called it) as that is what Clive uses and has used since before this thread was started.

By the way Clive broke his own rules on that GBPJPY long so that was NOT a CCI trade that should have been taken as the CCI's were not in agreement with momentum for a long.

Keep up your great trading though! It looks as though you have your ABCD method nailed.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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