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  • #7,401
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:32am Jun 11, 2014 10:32am
I’m testing TP levels. The green lines are based on the last high prior the CZ and the last low in the CZ. Conversely for a bearish trade. So the TP levels are based on Price and Time, Gann would be proud of me.

I think it’s forward test worthy, what do you guys think?
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  • #7,402
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:58am Jun 12, 2014 3:58am
Catched this one today. 30 candles (m10) in a range of 6 pips. Stoploss other side box at 9 pips. Take profit (and red bufferzone) based on time and price. RR 1 : 3,88. Too good to pass up.
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  • #7,403
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:10am Jun 13, 2014 8:10am
Quoting GU-Night
I’m testing TP levels. The green lines are based on the last high prior the CZ and the last low in the CZ. Conversely for a bearish trade. So the TP levels are based on Price and Time, Gann would be proud of me. I think it’s forward test worthy, what do you guys think? {image} {image} {image} {image}
so i am just assuming here that you are on week 1 of doing FH assignment on post 1. if so, then yes, start forward testing. no more cherry picking.
  • #7,404
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:20am Jun 13, 2014 9:20am
update 4 hr
two losses two wins plus few pullouts etc.,
+ 7 pips for the week
will go back to the recommended sl next week
on demo
Regards Peter
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  • #7,405
  • Edited 11:53am Jun 13, 2014 10:07am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting greentruck
{quote} so i am just assuming here that you are on week 1 of doing FH assignment on post 1. if so, then yes, start forward testing. no more cherry picking.
I traded them live on a micro account, actually. I was happy with the winratio but had the feeling that I could improve further with dynamical profit targets and dynamical bufferzones where the indy uses averages, which is curve fitting in my opinion. I like to approach each individual CZ on its own because I believe that every moment in the market is unique, and if so, what do I do with averages then?

There are two things that are continuous changing in the markets which are price and time is what I thought. I remembered FXH signature “To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.” I linked the two together which was leading me to some Gann analyses which I’m quite familiar with and are based on price and time. The results were impressive. And I knew, I had improved.

Edit: Notice the short CZ’s on the lowest yellow line and the upper yellow line. If that’s more often the case it gives me confidence to trade such short CZ’s regularly on price and time lines. I pay close attention to it this month.
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  • #7,406
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:05pm Jun 13, 2014 8:05pm
The yen is forever producing profits
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  • #7,407
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:43pm Jun 13, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting Rahimseven
The yen is forever producing profits {image} {image}
Trouble is the indicator ( which is a masterpiece I might add) does look back and cherrypick.
best to use your own CZ;s
Two bobsworth
Regards Peter
  • #7,408
  • Jun 13, 2014 10:38pm Jun 13, 2014 10:38pm
Quoting orid
{quote} Trouble is the indicator ( which is a masterpiece I might add) does look back and cherrypick. best to use your own CZ;s Two bobsworth Regards Peter

Yes a few bugs but no trouble and there's no best way, both work. You need only understand the mechanics, be properly funded and grow your investment. The indicator "walks" forward from the setting you introduce. If you set tight and long CZs it will walk forward from the first one found in the 100 days back for example. The way you set the indicator's max trade per set will cause you to think it picking but it's just going through the set and there may be inter-set CZs that you feel are missed. This is just part of the process. Your in the set until it gives profit of fails. Only after that will the indicator start a new CZ. Not saying your unaware...

What the indicator does not do is locate only true ranging consolidations. So it will not match what you draw on your own.

If this helps (only if it pertains) Set it up like you are funded 20k+ and you will be satisfied with a lower number of monthly CZs instead of tweaking to make more trades and greater profits with low funds. Then save the funds as the system ain't going nowhere.

This is one of the best and easiest on here. If not the best!!!
  • #7,409
  • Jun 14, 2014 5:38am Jun 14, 2014 5:38am
Quoting Rahimseven
{quote} Yes a few bugs but no trouble and there's no best way, both work. You need only understand the mechanics, be properly funded and grow your investment. The indicator "walks" forward from the setting you introduce. If you set tight and long CZs it will walk forward from the first one found in the 100 days back for example. The way you set the indicator's max trade per set will cause you to think it picking but it's just going through the set and there may be inter-set CZs that you feel are missed. This is just part of the process. Your in...
Very good explanation , wish I had that Quality ! thanks .
only thing I don't like is that a lot of times you can enter on the arrow only for the arrow to dissappear on a retrace which a lot of times will go for a loss , the loss doesn't show on the settings as do probably a lot of other losses so the indicator is misleading in some ways cherry picking , but of course it is just a helper after all and best not to rely on , and not just enter any arrow . I'm trying setting ema , test, etc., to false , to lessen this , nevertheless great method as you say .
Regards Peter
If I knew what I was on about I'd be dangerous
  • #7,410
  • Edited 9:03am Jun 18, 2014 6:58am | Edited 9:03am
Hi to any SSBO lingerers!
Just finished reading through this thread and doing the back testing on my 3 fav pairs to find my sweetest box size and to learn the way of the CZ and SSBO!
I'm not really interested in indicators etc so am drawing boxes freehand only (though I think I will start to incorporate the indi just to aid me in back testing to my refine the box sizes, not to trade from. So on my 2nd read through I'll start to do that and keep back testing. For now Im easing myself into this whole thing, so thanks in advance to squalo and xux!

Im also lightly trading this system the last few days too and its going well already. I'm only aiming for TP of 1:1 and/or 75% of CZ size with each trade (especially with the 1st break out) for now.
When Im more confident with everything at a later stage and its generated some more profits, I'll refine how I enter and exit to get more out of it. For now I'm just getting more and more confident with CZ sizes and for me some very light live trading with it is part of that.
So far according to my journal Ive had 75% winners, since it's early days Im encouraged but I realise have a long way to go to get the max out of this system.

Currently I have 1 position open this morn on EU with TP target @ 1:1 of CZ box size, but I'll move SL to BE after I post this - in the pic its still in original position. I open 2 trades upon breakout, both at the same place, with TP @ 75% of box size for one and the other TP is at 1:1 - from my analysis so far, I find many breakouts get to approx 75% of the CZ size before reversing and breaking through the other side again. From what Ive seen of my back testing, many breakouts would have taken some pips this way where as with just one 1:1 TP trade, it would have hit only BE or SL - especially the 1st breakout move.
Once I get the indi incorporated in my back testing, I'll have some stats to help me analyse this hypothesis and decide what to do longer term (Im aiming to have 3 trades per BO, 75%, 1:1 and open ended TPs).

I also had two winning 75% trades on GU this morning, one buy and one sell from the CZ that formed from last night. The other 1:1s were BE only. I just know that the old me would have been fluttering around and grumbling at the spikes from the news today and now would be stuck as to what to do next. Instead, thanks to SSBO, I managed to bank some pips and am now waiting for the next CZ sitting comfortably. I admit the sell trades were only just out of the spike range, if they were a few pips higher it would have been a SL situation, so I'll investigate that a bit more and take measures, for now it came out green

I love the elegant simplicity of this system and it embodies many factors about the market that I know to be true but don't quite fit with many other popular system's 'paradigms'. I actually started my FX trading many moons ago with breakout trading mindset, but never in a systematic and disciplined way as outlined here by FXH, so it sits very well with me. Also, it's very soothing to purposefully ignore indicators and trends and falling knifes and all these usual hazzards. I still havent shaken the draw to my other systems quite yet, I have had success with these other systems too so I dont want to 'sit in one camp and all others go to hell' just yet, the world is more grey than that, but for now I'm excited to be learning and benefiting from SSBO

Thank you FHX for sharing this system and putting all the effort into this thread over the last years for ppl like me to dig up and find like a sunken atlantis many years later
I hope to post some results once in a while in order to keep this thread somehow alive (even if its only in zombie form...brains).

Edit: EU now hit TP 1:1
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  • #7,411
  • Jun 24, 2014 2:20pm Jun 24, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting gjgjg
Hi to any SSBO lingerers! Just finished reading through this thread and doing the back testing on my 3 fav pairs to find my sweetest box size and to learn the way of the CZ and SSBO! I'm not really interested in indicators etc so am drawing boxes freehand only (though I think I will start to incorporate the indi just to aid me in back testing to my refine the box sizes, not to trade from. So on my 2nd read through I'll start to do that and keep back testing. For now Im easing myself into this whole thing, so thanks in advance to squalo and xux!...

i understand what you are doing and understand that idea of wanting 75 percent win ratio. the indi might state that but when i traded live with those settings even when it states that, i have never had 75 percent win ratio on any pair on any setting. i would be mega rich if i did. i would always enjoy some temp success and then it would hit the fan.

for example. here is a chart from the last two weeks. these czs are not too loose. those are m30 bars and while usually these settings average 2 czs a week, this past two weeks have been terrible. not only did they produce a cz everyday which is odd, every single one of them lost. 8 losses in a row! what! lol. all year, these settings had only lost 2x in a row and i had only lost 2x in a row until this week. but here's the thing, i am not changing a thing. most traders would cry and change their settings to match what the market did lately. i am not changing a thing because i understand everything on post 1 of this thread.

FH said to take 100 days or more to forward test, this week is why. if you were just setting up settings this week on my chart, you would be like, this is terrble, lol. and i totally understand why. but its just one week, you got the rest of the year to contend with.
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  • #7,412
  • Jun 25, 2014 7:43am Jun 25, 2014 7:43am
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Easy pips on euro today
  • #7,413
  • Jun 25, 2014 5:04pm Jun 25, 2014 5:04pm
Quoting greentruck
{quote} i understand what you are doing and understand that idea of wanting 75 percent win ratio. the indi might state that but when i traded live with those settings even when it states that, i have never had 75 percent win ratio on any pair on any setting. i would be mega rich if i did. i would always enjoy some temp success and then it would hit the fan. for example. here is a chart from the last two weeks. these czs are not too loose. those are m30 bars and while usually these settings average 2 czs a week, this past two weeks have been terrible....
Roger that on sticking with the settings for 100 forward days, despite the 'bad couple of weeks' ill be very interested to recap in 100 days to see where my box sizes etc end up, and how many bad days/weeks i get too...
...I actually had time over the last few days to try out the indicator (while following its evolution more closely reading the thread this 2nd time around) and the one Im using made by Xux is really a sweet tool for this system.

From my limited exp with it, and looking at your charts though if I had to hazard some feedback (if I could be so bold) is that some of those CZs are forming after only 17/18 bars? That could be your problem from my understanding. Most of my better results (ie stats from the indi, not trades) are min 26 bars long - some up to 45 bars. These are WIP stats though and are still in forward testing too.

Is that a 30min chart by any chance? I have one chart on 30mins that looks for 19 bars, but thats the closest I have to your settings I think, and I get 2.4 CZ's avg pw (4 in the last 2 weeks) on that EU pair.
How long have you had those settings? Is that GU pair?

We could share some configurations by PM if you're interested. Ive managed to get some settings in the 70% success rate (most are in the 60%) on the 1st trade alone from last 100 days, which im looking forward to seeing the next 100 day's results for!

Edit: Im also noticing some probs with the indi however, are you getting this: i need to flip TFs often with this indi to get it to paint the boxes correctly, i often find it drawn a new box without the old one being 'finished' or just a huge box covering the whole chart, flipping TFs seems to fix it - worst of all I see setting figures in the edit menu entered, then not reflected on the display box. i hope this doesnt affect the stats. I also found some stats with strange settings, like 1.8 pip buffer etc that im pretty sure i didnt do... hope its just because my eyes are like sand and i cant even remember if i have kids, let alone their names...
  • #7,414
  • Edited Jun 26, 2014 9:04am Jun 25, 2014 7:47pm | Edited Jun 26, 2014 9:04am
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} Roger that on sticking with the settings for 100 forward days, despite the 'bad couple of weeks' ill be very interested to recap in 100 days to see where my box sizes etc end up, and how many bad days/weeks i get too... ...I actually had time over the last few days to try out the indicator (while following its evolution more closely reading the thread this 2nd time around) and the one Im using made by Xux is really a sweet tool for this system. From my limited exp with it, and looking at your charts though if I had to hazard some feedback...
yes, M30 bars. to me, learning what MM fits your life and personality is what took me the longest. there are so many different ways of trading a cz and entry styles and exits. the different ways are numerous as the stars in the sky. i traded hand drawn boxes for a year and now i use the indi as a guide just to help me out during the hustle of the day. so i dont really look at the stats on the indi and all that great info anymore. i think those stats just end up distracting you from the fundamentals that FH taught. as far as which pair, its u/j, but it dont matter which pair or which time frame, just pick your fav pair with some decent stats and go to town.
  • #7,415
  • Jun 28, 2014 6:17am Jun 28, 2014 6:17am
Quoting greentruck
{quote} yes, M30 bars. to me, learning what MM fits your life and personality is what took me the longest. there are so many different ways of trading a cz and entry styles and exits. the different ways are numerous as the stars in the sky. i traded hand drawn boxes for a year and now i use the indi as a guide just to help me out during the hustle of the day. so i dont really look at the stats on the indi and all that great info anymore. i think those stats just end up distracting you from the fundamentals that FH taught. as far as which pair, its...
Im starting to see what you mean, coming from drawing my own boxes for weeks then spending a short while on the indi I start ignoring the PA almost and just tweaking and tweaking until the stats in the box look good, but im starting to see they are just a guide and can break down
interesting:
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  • #7,416
  • Jun 28, 2014 8:01am Jun 28, 2014 8:01am
Maybe there is someone who wants to answer this question, or think about this question. This is my question:

If you knew for at least 40% of the time in which direction the breakout of the consolidation zone would happen. Let say, only for this example: 40% of the time long. If you are right price will reach at least quick take profit. Would you still trade the breakout (with room in your back), or would you position yourself at a confirmed bottom of the range with a very small stoploss, so your risk reward is around 1:4 if it reaches quick take profit?

I have thought about the ‘edge ‘ of this system which is in my eyes volatility contraction/expanding. And only volatility contraction/expanding. In my eyes a very great edge, which deserves great attention from me.

I doubt if I take full advantage of that great edge, while trading SSBO, because the room in my back could have been profit if I know what I’m doing.

Below two textbook examples . EURGBP and GBPUSD.

The green lines are price and time lines confirmed by volume and price action, and later while volatility was decreased(the CZ) again confirmed by price action (green arrows).

You can’t see it in the pictures but I don’t use Quick take profit as counted by the Indy. My take profits are based on the last 256 periods volatility in pips divided by 8 x 2. You could say: “that is the same as divided by 4” but I don’t say that because divided by 8 is for me 1 unit volatility, my take profits are 2 units volatility.
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  • #7,417
  • Jun 28, 2014 8:51pm Jun 28, 2014 8:51pm
Quoting GU-Night
Maybe there is someone who wants to answer this question, or think about this question. This is my question: If you knew for at least 40% of the time in which direction the breakout of the consolidation zone would happen. Let say, only for this example: 40% of the time long. If you are right price will reach at least quick take profit. Would you still trade the breakout (with room in your back), or would you position yourself at a confirmed bottom of the range with a very small stoploss, so your risk reward is around 1:4 if it reaches quick take...
i totally get what you are saying. there are many ways to trade support and resistance lines. i have thought the same way too, my brain runs 100 mph sometimes, lol. but FH's ssbo system, first doesnt predict direction of breakout, also doesnt use volume or any other data other than price, etc...if you want to trade of support lines, i am sure you can find a thread about it. to be respectful of FH thread, we should stick to discussion of ssbo the way he taught it.
  • #7,418
  • Jun 29, 2014 1:05pm Jun 29, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting greentruck
i totally get what you are saying.
if you want to trade of support lines, i am sure you can find a thread about it.
.
I wish you the best with your thread, smart guy.
  • #7,419
  • Jun 30, 2014 6:10pm Jun 30, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting GU-Night
Maybe there is someone who wants to answer this question, or think about this question. This is my question: If you knew for at least 40% of the time in which direction the breakout of the consolidation zone would happen. Let say, only for this example: 40% of the time long. If you are right price will reach at least quick take profit. Would you still trade the breakout (with room in your back), or would you position yourself at a confirmed bottom of the range with a very small stoploss, so your risk reward is around 1:4 if it reaches quick take...
I have done this before, but only because price retraced into the cz after a BO but didnt hit my SL yet, giving a 'better entry opportunity' with a smaller sl to larger tp ratio for a trade still in play (because i was late to the trade when i should have entered at my cz buffer line). its something have done as an exception to take advantage of an opportunity of being late to the trade but finding it still in play, not because of a directional bias or any researched basis. i know its a bad habbit to break from the system, but i still count the trade as having entered in the right place, so its not really a proper misdemeanor!
So i dont really agree with you to adjust entry in this way for directional reasons, but that's just me. One of things i like about this system is this nutrality to direction. But if you feel you know what direction it will go then, id think it makes sense to place more emphasis getting in at a lower point/adjust strategy to suit this direction as you say... but personally, since i believe we cannot know this, i prefer to trade the cz break outs by sticking to the system as taught here (boring i know sorry). some times i use other indicators as a tie breaker when i feel i need discretion on an entry in one direction or the other, eg if a weak cz forms after a busy period and it spikes to one direction and i cant decide if its worth taking it, then id check a support line or a fib or whatever rather than flipping a coin to help me decide to take it or not (Jason Alan Jankovsky, great trader, claims most traditional indis are as accurate as coin flips so why not!). but thats the only time i try to think about direction with ssbo.

anyway, my short version is that if you feel you can predict direction with a profitable edge, then why not include it into the way you trade ssbo, but id be surprised if you find many people to join you from this thread! no disrespect intended, just my opinion.

ps i must ask, is 40% a workable advantage for you? at face value, i would give each direction at least 50% each by default... so 40% to me sounds too low to trade. maybe its just a hypothetical number, or maybe you mean an added 40% on top of the usual 50/50 (which would be pretty great)?

pps, meanwhile back on the ranch:
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  • #7,420
  • Edited 7:42pm Jul 1, 2014 12:01pm | Edited 7:42pm
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} I have done this before, but only because price retraced into the cz after a BO but didnt hit my SL yet, giving a 'better entry opportunity' with a smaller sl to larger tp ratio for a trade still in play (because i was late to the trade when i should have entered at my cz buffer line). its something have done as an exception to take advantage of an opportunity of being late to the trade but finding it still in play, not because of a directional bias or any researched basis. i know its a bad habbit to break from the system, but i still count...
I believe that it is not always the top or bottom of the range that has to be broken. But another price within the CZ, and that is for me the reason that price sometimes/often comes back into the CZ to retest that price. So from my perspective, has the SSBO trader a bias that the top or bottom has to be broken or a bufferzone for confirmation of the direction, there is as far as I know no single proof for that.

I began to think when I saw often ‘stairsteps’ within the CZ when I looked for hours and hours how a CZ was formed, which was ‘smart money’ building their positions I concluded later.

FXH has mentioned something like this too in this thread, more than once. But I believe he not included this in the openings post because it is discretionary, thus people have to see it for themselves, and keep a diary for such things.

I look for this without any indicator, totally naked, when I see it happen, I look on a volume indicator, if the indicator confirms my view, I enter at that price. Even so with the price and time lines that I use. Besides that, I use current volatility for stoploss and takeprofit instead of 100 days averages, which is more than logical in my eyes.

Ps the 40% is hypothetical.
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