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  • #381
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:39am Jun 13, 2014 4:39am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I haven't looked at why but something happened causing a massive jump late afternoon US. That gave D a solid positive close that followed through big time this morning Asian session with over 100 pip move up. After such a massive move yesterday and this morning whats going to push it more now? GJ hit a major SR area around 173.20. Add in the simple fact that its Fri morning and I'm kinda not interested either way. I'd rather go to the proctologist than trade on a Fri morning but that's just me. If you haven't made your pips by now...
pres 78 will say that the cci 210 was dying on you.

Looking at your chart and the one I posted earlier on the subject of cci dying (yes I know its just one example) your pa had a major retrace and then started going sideways, cci died, my chart pa was still kinda edging up price just making HH's, HL's. Add in the massive move up on gj, the major SR level, the W pivot.

Looking at the bigger pic I don't know which way its going.
  • #382
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:45am Jun 13, 2014 4:45am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} This is a very tricky one. Some people that know indicators better might have more knowledge. The question would be when is an indi trailing off because its a trend reversal coming or is it trailing off because price action is going sideways before moving on again? Here cci 210 has trailed off though price has drifted. I'd say this is a system trade. Perhaps its time of day. I suppose I'll stick to my trading view that if LO has had a relatively quick 50-70 pip move that's more than likely it until US gets going. NB Don't confuse this with...
I agree those are trades. The trend CCI rolled over under +100 and back above again with the CCI14 which hit -100. I did not say we couldn't and wouldn't go up again as the CCI will hit periods of lull overnight. During the London and NY sessions however if we are rising but aren't getting spikes back over +100 on the trend CCI just be wary is all. Still testing though so this is still just grains of salt.

Your red arrow is around 1 hour before LO is it not? When do you start taking trades in the morning? Or am I off on when LO is right now with the daylight savings etc...? It's normally 10AM on my charts, your red arrow was 9AM?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #383
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:53am Jun 13, 2014 4:53am
Something I would have traded. First dip / spike happened on a down bar so no go for me... (orange lines). Second dip spike (second yellow) line. Perfect. 2:1 was hit quickly so 1:1 or more would have been banked quickly and now risk free to let it run and possibly trail. With only a 7 pip SL I might have considered waiting for 2:1 and then even if SL is hit a 1:1 return would be the net gain.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #384
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:56am Jun 13, 2014 4:56am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I haven't looked at why but something happened causing a massive jump late afternoon US.
GBP Carney speech.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #385
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:02am Jun 13, 2014 5:02am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I agree those are trades. The trend CCI rolled over under +100 and back above again with the CCI14 which hit -100. I did not say we couldn't and wouldn't go up again as the CCI will hit periods of lull overnight. During the London and NY sessions however if we are rising but aren't getting spikes back over +100 on the trend CCI just be wary is all. Still testing though so this is still just grains of salt. Your red arrow is around 1 hour before LO is it not? When do you start taking trades in the morning? Or am I off on when LO is right...

Yes sometimes things can happen Frankies hour. After the big Asian push up to 138.20 it was still making smaller HH, HL's. Price came back to 138.20 area and gave a higher low. All other rules for me were in place cci 210, above ma's, angle/separation ma's, a b c's, retrace cci 14. Wasn't in front of the computer so don't know if I would have gone for it, but it was OK per rules.
  • #386
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:02am Jun 13, 2014 5:02am
Hi Mr V.
You make a lot of sense Mr V. that's for sure and your years of trading experience shines through in every post you write. And believe it or not, I am listening, which is why I am constantly changing my trading plan accordingly. In fact quite radically as when I first started this thread I was a 1 minute man through and through, didn't even glance at higher timeframes as I believed the money moved the market and the money shows in the 1 min. But not any more!!

Oh no, not anymore, as now you've shown me the light and I fully accept I have to use higher timeframes and only trade the 1 min when it lines up with the higher timeframes trend/momentum. That way I will improve probabilities of finding higher RR trades, as you know my main goal here to have BIGGER winners than my losers.

Therefore I have yet again adjusted my trading plan but this time I really think I've cracked it!! I will post my new trade plan over the weekend, see what you think??

Of course its gonna take time and practice to trade it but I will get there, don't worry , if there's one thing I am absolutely sure of, its the fact that I will succeed at Forex. That is unavoidable Mr V. because I've set my mind to it.

Only question is when???? And, I guess, more importantly, willl I have any money left to trade with by the time I've done it???

Once again thanks for all your advice, posts etc absolutely invaluable.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #387
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:08am Jun 13, 2014 5:08am
Clive, were you buying when price came back within the ma's?
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  • #388
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:21am Jun 13, 2014 5:21am
Quoting clivepackham
Hi Mr V. You make a lot of sense Mr V. that's for sure and your years of trading experience shines through in every post you write. And believe it or not, I am listening, which is why I am constantly changing my trading plan accordingly. In fact quite radically as when I first started this thread I was a 1 minute man through and through, didn't even glance at higher timeframes as I believed the money moved the market and the money shows in the 1 min. But not any more!! Oh no, not anymore, as now you've shown me the light and I fully accept I have...
The losing trades you took this morning, were they against the rules?

- cci 210 +100 (OK +100 had been hit but then drifted lower a little but for me that's OK)
- cci 14 retrace (OK that probably happened)
- pa above the ma's
- angle and/or separation on ma's
- a b c ok maybe just scraped this

But price had probably drifted between the ma's, how I want to trade this idea that would be a no no. When you add that into Fri morning trade, the massive run ups that had already happened, the SR level, the W pivot. But excluding all the bigger pic bits, did it comply with rules? If the answer is no then ................. WTF!

Time for the big switch computer off, walk away have a coffee and rethink. You are entirely right, you have found out how not to do it. Repeating the same mistakes is not going to get you a different result. Time for some major intestinal fortitude. I don't know if you've hit rock bottom yet (yes like an addict) but you have to be close. Stop worrying about the moves that might pass you by, stop forcing trades. Focus on the method and whats working. The trades you took and lost, what resemblance do they have to the picture perfect trades that are posted. Little/none?

-
  • #389
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:38am Jun 13, 2014 5:38am
On the pairs I watch there was little that was jumping out at me as a trade. For some time aud was showing as the weakest currency and eur, usd, chf showing strong. There was only 1 pair that was complying with the rules and signalled a possible trade.

Yes I know this is after the event but that's why I'm doing it like this, so that when I'm ready to trade I'll have that visual in my brain what a good trade looks like and hopefully leave the rest, because these pic perfect set ups pretty much happen every day.
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  • #390
  • Edited 6:16am Jun 13, 2014 5:45am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting Vantage
On the pairs I watch there was little that was jumping out at me as a trade. For some time aud was showing as the weakest currency and eur, usd, chf showing strong. There was only 1 pair that was complying with the rules and signalled a possible trade. Yes I know this is after the event but that's why I'm doing it like this, so that when I'm ready to trade I'll have that visual in my brain what a good trade looks like and hopefully leave the rest, because these pic perfect set ups pretty much happen every day. {image}
If you were in any doubt as to the list:

- cci 210 hit -100 - yes
- cci 14 retrace (either 200 on scale or to +100) - yes
- pa below ma's - yes
- angle and/or separation of ma's - yes
- abc - yes
- currency meter SW confirms - yes

There are more than enough trades that comply with these rules, so for now, as a start, pls try and focus on these, or post your own updated rules so that compliance can be checked.
  • #391
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:51am Jun 13, 2014 5:51am
Its just struck me, you might be suffering from fiveminuteitis. Its a strange affliction that hits lower TF traders. If the computer has been on for five minutes they feel this over powering need to trade. It can be catching and deadly if not caught early.
  • #392
  • Edited 6:42am Jun 13, 2014 6:27am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting pres78
Something I would have traded. First dip / spike happened on a down bar so no go for me... (orange lines). Second dip spike (second yellow) line. Perfect. 2:1 was hit quickly so 1:1 or more would have been banked quickly and now risk free to let it run and possibly trail. With only a 7 pip SL I might have considered waiting for 2:1 and then even if SL is hit a 1:1 return would be the net gain. {image}
So this trade went as high as around 44634 which based on a 4414 entry with a 7 pip SL is just shy of 7:1. Not bad for a Friday.

As price spiked and hit that high making a new HH for the day both of the CCI's were falling and making LH's as price made a HH. Not long after CCI 210 was below +100, the CCI 14 was way down and price was crossing below the 100MA. No bounce trade here as the CCI 14 never came back and neither has the 210.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #393
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:42am Jun 13, 2014 6:42am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} The losing trades you took this morning, were they against the rules? - cci 210 +100 (OK +100 had been hit but then drifted lower a little but for me that's OK) - cci 14 retrace (OK that probably happened) - pa above the ma's - angle and/or separation on ma's - a b c ok maybe just scraped this But price had probably drifted between the ma's, how I want to trade this idea that would be a no no. When you add that into Fri morning trade, the massive run ups that had already happened, the SR level, the W pivot. But excluding all the bigger pic...
Good morning Mr V. and pres78

Thanks for your comments guys much appreciated, I hear what you're saying.I've now reviewed those trades myself and know exactly what I did wrong. Have a look at chart below showing those WTF trades. I had a belief that GBPJPY was going up so was looking for a buy entry. Thats the first problem, as I believed price was going up I was looking for evidence to support that belief and not what was actually going on and that the momentum was falling on the 15 min CCI.

Lesson 1 - Trade what you "actually" see not what you "believe" you see.

So looking for evidence of that push up I expected, I kept watching the Tick Box, where I kept seeing price react strongly to the 173.00 level and I mean super strong, like Fred & his friends were around so kept having a pop everytime it came down to that level. Pure price action trading really watching the tick box responses to that key 173.00 level. All would work fine if the bigger picture was lining up with my beliefs. Basically what I am saying I was yet again looking too close to the actual price and not the much bigger picture as shown by the CCI and the 1 min trending downwards!! Gotta wait for the bigger picture to come into line before dropping down to the tick box for an entry. Would be better for 210 CCI to be moving upwards, 1 min to be producing HHHLs then drop down to tick box for a HHHL pattern to form at a key level, then hit it!!!!

See same old problem looking too closely at price!!! Gives me very precise and exact entries when the CCI and 1 min line up but useless before!!!

Lesson 2 - Make sure the BIG picture is lining up first before checking out the little picture.

Which brings me very quickly to my revised trade plan as it tackles this issue head on!!!

I will in future be trading from higher timeframe to lower in this order:Lets assume for this exercise I am buying.

1) Must be in top 4 of 15 min top 8 trenders first so 15 min pair that is trending up the strongest.

2) Wait for 210 CCI to go above -100 and have a positive slope. (shows 15 min momentum is shifting from down to up)

3) Wait for it to appear in the 1 min top 4 trenders the same colour as 15 min.

4) Then drop down to 1 min and confirm its trending up with HHHL's

5) Wait for a qualifying ABCD move

6) Look for a strong break AB and then retest BC of one of my KEY Levels

7) As price drops to that level

8) Drop down to tick box and watch for a positive reaction at that level.

9) When tick box trending up HHHL's hit it!!!

10) Trade management? lets discuss that another time.

Now thats it!!! If you see me take any other sort of entry outside those giudelines please shout at me as loud and as rudely as you want, maybe then I will stick to my plan.

Going to top up account again, for the last time hopefully and this time its going to work!!!

Thanks Mr V. and pres78, I'm still listening.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #394
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:05am Jun 13, 2014 7:05am
Vantage after noticing your Aud/usd chart I can't help but mention this level line that originated over 30 hours previously.

Its a Tomcat Delicate level from this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post7520684

Super thread Clive thank you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm30.png Size: 22 KB
  • #395
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:05am Jun 13, 2014 7:05am
Quoting clivepackham
I kept watching the Tick Box, where I kept seeing price react strongly to the 173.00 level and I mean super strong, like Fred & his friends were around so kept having a pop everytime it came down to that level. Pure price action trading really watching the tick box responses to that key 173.00 level. All would work fine if the bigger picture was lining up with my beliefs. Basically what I am saying I was yet again looking too close to the actual price and not the much bigger picture as shown by the CCI and the 1 min trending downwards!! Gotta wait...
Clive,

As you noted each of those reactions to 173 the CCI 210 as you noted was falling and never came back above +100. Your 3rd yellow arrow, break and re-test... The CCI 210 was below 0 and only peaked above 0 on that spike returning right back below so no long trade there. Once CCI 210 hits -100 I am only looking for shorts. +100 longs... In between -100 and +100 sit on my hands unless it moves back into trend (we are below -100 come above and return to -100 quickly after a retrace, opposite for long trends).

We need to trade with the trend being shown by CCI 210 to save getting whipsawed. My testing has shown that staying out and not anticpating the CCI 210 saves getting trapped more times than not.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #396
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:21am Jun 13, 2014 7:21am
Quoting Poocher
Vantage after noticing your Aud/usd chart I can't help but mention this level line that originated over 30 hours previously. Its a Tomcat Delicate level from this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post7520684 Super thread Clive thank you! {image}
Thanks Poocher but there are some tricks this dog is way to old to learn. My brain got frazzled!
  • #397
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:26am Jun 13, 2014 7:26am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Clive, As you noted each of those reactions to 173 the CCI 210 as you noted was falling and never came back above +100. Your 3rd yellow arrow, break and re-test... The CCI 210 was below 0 and only peaked above 0 on that spike returning right back below so no long trade there. Once CCI 210 hits -100 I am only looking for shorts. +100 longs... In between -100 and +100 sit on my hands unless it moves back into trend (we are below -100 come above and return to -100 quickly after a retrace, opposite for long trends). We need to trade with the...
Quoting my own post here but using your GBPJPY chart (hope you don't mind Clive)...

First white arrow, CCI 210 uptrend was over for now... We enter the dead zone until white arrow #2 which is when we first get excited that a downtrend may be starting. Note though it was short lived as price moved back above -100. Still if we get a 14 retrace to +100 and it brings the CCI 210 back below -100 with it now were talking. As you can see we had several retraces but each and every time the trend CCI stayed in the dead zone.

The orange box / line shows the only time both CCI's made it to -100... however it took forever and price was too far from the MA's for my liking... but if the CCI 210 stays down and we get a 14 retrace we may have a short. Next retraces 14 went up as did the CCI 210 never staying below -100. Result ranging market that we don't want to be in.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpym1wtf%20trades%20reviewed.png Size: 95 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #398
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:28am Jun 13, 2014 7:28am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Thanks Poocher but there are some tricks this dog is way to old to learn. My brain got frazzled!

Oh Please!...I wish I knew half the tricks you do Vantage.
  • #399
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:30am Jun 13, 2014 7:30am
Quoting clivepackham
1) Must be in top 4 of 15 min top 8 trenders first so 15 min pair that is trending up the strongest. 2) Wait for 210 CCI to go above -100 and have a positive slope. (shows 15 min momentum is shifting from down to up) {image}
Isn't item 2 going to be premature, for buys cci 210 going above -100 line? Isn't that focus going to keep you out of many perfectly valid sells as the cci bars bounce in and around the -100 level?
  • #400
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:31am Jun 13, 2014 7:31am
Quoting Poocher
{quote} Oh Please!...I wish I knew half the tricks you do Vantage.
Its not the tricks I know, its learning the new ones ...................
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