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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #13,841
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:22am Jun 12, 2014 1:22am
this could be one of the most magical moments I've witnessed in this thread. Interest waned after geppy and albchr bailed. I learned a lot from you both and banked serious green pips. Im so happy I just might howl at the [full] moon!!
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  • #13,842
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:30am Jun 12, 2014 1:30am
Quoting InnerSong
this could be one of the most magical moments I've witnessed in this thread. Interest waned after geppy and albchr bailed. I learned a lot from you both and banked serious green pips. Im so happy I just might howl at the [full] moon!! {image}
I simply never understood your comments about cat fights. With maybe one exception, this has been one of the most civil GJ threads ever on FF.
  • #13,843
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:41am Jun 12, 2014 1:41am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It doesn't normally move south after breaking north from a reversal pattern. The only question is strength. But, yes, it could fall back in
Thank you, I will definitely watch it, if she doesn't falling back...then am going to close it... and wait .....
Learning and Learing
  • #13,844
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:51am Jun 12, 2014 1:51am
Quoting Mpt
Breaking up, but very weak. {image}
There are 6 barriers on my chart where the top of today is. If it brakes that continuation up is possible...
  • #13,845
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:53am Jun 12, 2014 1:53am
lol and it broke it.
  • #13,846
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:04am Jun 12, 2014 2:04am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
lol and it broke it.
See, reversal patterns do sometimes work
  • #13,847
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:57am Jun 12, 2014 2:57am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} See, reversal patterns do sometimes work
Yes It is..^_^
Learning and Learing
  • #13,848
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:58am Jun 12, 2014 2:58am
Deat Mpt

The Square Drawing , May I ask the idea to draw it ??
Learning and Learing
  • #13,849
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:47am Jun 12, 2014 5:47am
Mpt, I hope your wrong. Just got back and it's still consolidating or rather flat 1h chart. Two hours to go and I'll know if it's breaking to the wrong side for me.
  • #13,850
  • Edited 6:11am Jun 12, 2014 5:58am | Edited 6:11am
Quoting LouiseZA
Mpt, I hope your wrong. Just got back and it's still consolidating or rather flat 1h chart. Two hours to go and I'll know if it's breaking to the wrong side for me.
Normally people say "don't watch the 15 minute" or so. In this case, don't watch the 1 hr. Preferably 4hr and daily. The moves are so small that any lower TF can sometimes give a false read.

By the way, I'm not giving a trade call here. I'm simply saying that I THINK 171.8 will break. But I have no idea.
  • #13,851
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:23am Jun 12, 2014 6:23am
Mpt, your input is appreciated. Will take your advise and look at higher time frames! Thanks.
  • #13,852
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:35am Jun 12, 2014 6:35am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Normally people say "don't watch the 15 minute" or so. In this case, don't watch the 1 hr. Preferably 4hr and daily. The moves are so small that any lower TF can sometimes give a false read. By the way, I'm not giving a trade call here. I'm simply saying that I THINK 171.8 will break. But I have no idea.
If it does break above 171.80-85, I think it is going to give a quick 50-pip up-move to 172.30.
  • #13,853
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:25am Jun 12, 2014 7:25am
It looks if she breaking upwards. Question now, how far north. I'll just stay in the trade, a small lot.
  • #13,854
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:45am Jun 12, 2014 7:45am
Quoting pladee
Deat Mpt The Square Drawing , May I ask the idea to draw it ??
Just two sets of parallel channel lines. Essentially drawn between the high low points, as you can see, with the other one following the uptrend out of 170.9.

Very rarely are they perfectly symmetrical, but this one was absolutely so. It assumes the shape of a diamond, but more often than not it takes a lot of 'poetic licence' to see the shape. The formation occurs at the bottom of a move or the top of a move as a reversal. BUT, it can also occur mid range as a continuation pattern - so they cannot be believed until they break out one way or another.

Even before they complete, they often stand out - with a long period of low momentum sideways moves, followed by a rapid peak, then a quick fall - all within the rough shape of a diamond. Hence the term 'diamond reversal'. Some people consider them to be off-center head and shoulders.

The target following breakout is VERY ROUGHLY the height of the formation, measured from break out - or a Fibonacci multiple thereof. This one was 83 pips high - and that SUGGESTS an initial target of about either 172.25 ( 83 pips above 171.4 breakout retest) or 172.8 (83 x 1.618). We will see.
  • #13,855
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:45am Jun 12, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Just two sets of parallel channel lines. Essentially drawn between the high low points, as you can see, with the other one following the uptrend out of 170.9. Very rarely are they perfectly symmetrical, but this one was absolutely so. It assumes the shape of a diamond, but more often than not it takes a lot of 'poetic licence' to see the shape. The formation occurs at the bottom of a move or the top of a move as a reversal. BUT, it can also occur mid range as a continuation pattern - so they cannot be believed until they break out one way...
Thanks... great information..I am learning today ..^_^
Learning and Learing
  • #13,856
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:13pm Jun 12, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting Hickson
Hi Geppy, welcome back! Would be really nice to have the creator of this thread post more often.
Thanks Hickson. Good to be back, although this month is absolutely nuts for me... then I'm getting married in August and jetting off for the honeymoon right after. So I'll be around a bit, but probably more so starting Sept.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #13,857
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:15pm Jun 12, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} what is the logic of shorting this pair?.i dont see fundamental change in anyway,if i see anything the prices going down it is becos of the traders liquidating thier position and the kind of rallies one tend to see on the short side are not very reliable.second is it a risk averse play? what was the risk event? if europe is the answer then if anything it should help the pound as funds should flow in britain therby strengthening it. please note just to be clear 2 weeks ago i had liquidated about 30 position with average entry price...
It's purely a range trading play right now, drzakir. I voiced my opinion the other month that I think we're heading higher, it's just a matter of time. But if I can scalp 100 pips here and there while we're waiting, by golly I'm gonna do it
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #13,858
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:16pm Jun 12, 2014 1:16pm
And honestly, if we can't get through yesterday's lows (~170.95) and push lower tomorrow then I'm bailing on these shorts (shorted another small position this morning at 171.809).
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #13,859
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:22pm Jun 12, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting Geppy
And honestly, if we can't get through yesterday's lows (~170.95) and push lower tomorrow then I'm bailing on these shorts (shorted another small position this morning at 171.809).
Kind of my thinking as well Geppy. But UJ cracked the 102 handle and I can see 101.41...maybe a touch more. And hopefully GU will take out 6800 after that last rejection at 6858ish. If so, I should get out of these last ones pretty well me thinks.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #13,860
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:39pm Jun 12, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Kind of my thinking as well Geppy. But UJ cracked the 102 handle and I can see 101.41...maybe a touch more. And hopefully GU will take out 6800 after that last rejection at 6858ish. If so, I should get out of these last ones pretty well me thinks. {image}
Nice!

And yes... my bias is for a crack of yesterday's lows and a retest of the 170ish area (maybe a bit lower on those lows there). If it goes lower than 169.75, there's more support in the mid and low 168's. If it could get there, I'd be a buyer.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
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