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  • #361
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:51am Jun 12, 2014 4:51am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Yep makes perfect sense as usual Mr V. but also its funny I've sat there so many times and told myself "It can't go any higher it has to turn around soon" Then guess what?? It soars on ahead for the whole day and even worst I've tried to catch the reversal and been smashed to bits!! Ha Ha guess thats what makes a market??? Only thing I like about this is GBPCHF has just broken new grounds on daily so this could be the start of a Daily breakout and a massive move up so guess I'm thinking is the risk worth the possible reward??? At...
Could be a D break out but the D candle hasn't closed yet. Lots of time for the breakout to get rejected. Not saying it will just an observation.

What I will say is that I'm not looking for every trade. The first trade is the best, OK from 1 min we know there are several good waves but we still want to be in on the lower risk area. If you were up 6% for the session (or whatever) from some of the initial moves that were LOW risk in terms of the system (price broke above immediate range, system signals confirmed, good abc's, SW confirming etc etc) do you carry on or say that's it for now. Bearing in mind sometimes all that's needed is an hour or so wait for Fred to come back from his tea break.
  • #362
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:03am Jun 12, 2014 5:03am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi pres78 Just like Mr V. it all makes perfect sense I am looking into how can we find those early moves when price first makes its move?? Gonna look into an indicator that alarms whenever 100sma is first crossed as that is such a great place to look for our first entry Break and retest of 100sma, I am absolutely convinced its where Fred and Co enter many of their trades. Please keep on posting. I'm listening.
Get interested when price has flipped and hit the opposite side of range +100 or -100 for the first time. That's in your rules, 100 ma isn't, other than to signal a possible touch and bounce entry.

So the first starting point is +100 or -100 getting hit, that's your initial trend trigger.
  • #363
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:19am Jun 12, 2014 5:19am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Get interested when price has flipped and hit the opposite side of range +100 or -100 for the first time. That's in your rules, 100 ma isn't, other than to signal a possible touch and bounce entry. So the first starting point is +100 or -100 getting hit, that's your initial trend trigger.
yep thats something I have noticed that whenever the 210 CCI first crosses the zero line then the next couple of 14cci entrie are very good especially the 100sma break and retest(sorry to keep on about that B&R 100sma) as your threads first post says the first pullbacks are the best hence the first HL or LH.

You're making me think about how best to find these entries as the SW indys are all a bit too late generally speaking but not too bad first thing in the morning.

Gonna work on that for a bit try and catch those first entries.

Gonna give that some thought.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #364
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:24am Jun 12, 2014 5:24am
As for this trade I am in I think its best to get it to BE asap and just see what happens, as you say the pre New York wait will cause a fall back rather than a push up so best to sit back save my money and have another go this afternoon if it sets itself up.

Gotta feeling New Yorkers will support this GBPCHF move after lunch.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #365
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:38am Jun 12, 2014 5:38am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} yep thats something I have noticed that whenever the 210 CCI first crosses the zero line then the next couple of 14cci entrie are very good especially the 100sma break and retest(sorry to keep on about that B&R 100sma) as your threads first post says the first pullbacks are the best hence the first HL or LH. You're making me think about how best to find these entries as the SW indys are all a bit too late generally speaking but not too bad first thing in the morning. Gonna work on that for a bit try and catch those first entries. Gonna give...
Hate to be pedantic about this but its a crucial point otherwise we all think we're on the same page meanwhile ..........

Crossing the cci 210 0 line would be a different thing/trade set up. If you are talking about an early warning that's one thing but the trade rules are cci 210 hitting +100 or -100.

Clive I get the impression that you're going to start looking for something new again. If you find it great but what we are seeing day in and day out are the good winning trades that follow the touch of the cci 210 +100 and -100 levels for the first time and what then follows i.e. the first couple of abc waves. Focus on that, cci 210 hitting +100 -100 is ultimately the key part of your method from what I can see.

You have a winner on your hands right now, focus on that, get that right before considering anything else.
  • #366
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:18am Jun 12, 2014 6:18am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hate to be pedantic about this but its a crucial point otherwise we all think we're on the same page meanwhile .......... Crossing the cci 210 0 line would be a different thing/trade set up. If you are talking about an early warning that's one thing but the trade rules are cci 210 hitting +100 or -100. Clive I get the impression that you're going to start looking for something new again. If you find it great but what we are seeing day in and day out are the good winning trades that follow the touch of the cci 210 +100 and -100 levels for...
Wise words as always Vantage. Most of what I am doing in my testing is based around that general premise with some tweaks for safer entries and ways to stay in for more of the longer trend moves and better R:R.

One thing that has become very apparent in my testing thus far is the best moves come off the agressive CCI movements. If the 210 crosses 0 and takes forever to get to +100 the CCI 14 entries after tend to go nowhere really. Now when we have the 210 cross 0 and hit the +100 hard and quick well no we have momentum on our side and the fisrt entry after (sometimes even at the +100 hit depending on a few factors) tends to move quickly in our favor putting us in a better position to manage our trade.

Nothing worse than taking a 1 min trade and watching it go nowhere for hours. Trade the momentum moves.

Take what you have Clive and tweak your trading times, not the method to be ready to act at London open and not after and you will get in on the first entries rather than trying to get in after the move is going. If a bigger picture view is more your style then change your trend CCI and move up to 5 or 15 min for entries if that is what suits you.

Might I offer a small suggestion? Remove your trade explorer until you get back on your feet. You have nothing to prove to anyone here and while wanting to double your account in 30 days is a great goal trying to do so live while also building a trading method is adding extra pressure. Do your trading and testing in private and share your finding's / improvements here as you see fit but for now go back to trading for yourself and not for all the prying eyes.

Just my 2 cents.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #367
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:20am Jun 12, 2014 6:20am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hate to be pedantic about this but its a crucial point otherwise we all think we're on the same page meanwhile .......... Crossing the cci 210 0 line would be a different thing/trade set up. If you are talking about an early warning that's one thing but the trade rules are cci 210 hitting +100 or -100. Clive I get the impression that you're going to start looking for something new again. If you find it great but what we are seeing day in and day out are the good winning trades that follow the touch of the cci 210 +100 and -100 levels for...
Thanks Mr V.

You're wise words are ringing in my ears, trust me I am listening , intently.

Looks like I have another loser on my hands here as London traders have probably gone for an early lunch as the 210 CCI shows gradually loss of interest in buying this, should of got out at last push up but lost out to the old "fear of missing out" and held it, just in case it went up??. Should of cut my losses there and then and walked away to fight another day.

Thanks for your positive comments about having a good system. I agree, I think I have a good system too. But having a good system is one thing learning to trade it is another thing all together, as we all know.

Like you say, my last entry I took was nothing to do with my rules far from them, so why do I keep doing that??? Time after time???

Hmmm never mind got to learn from it all, gotta start trading my plan correctly, need to learn the necessary discipline to trade my plan and not move from it.

Do you know probably the biggest thing I gotta learn???

WHEN NOT TO TRADE!!!!!

If my set ups not there then DON'T TRADE!!!!

On my last trade, that was not a good time to join the move as you quite rightly pointed out. But more importantly where was my strong push up in front of a smooth pullback??? I'll tell you were it was at 8.28 this morning absolutely classic signal!! Positive drive up break of yesterdays high and a nice smooth 38% pullback to Daily R1 level. Don't come much better than that do they???

So why didn't I take it???

Because I wasn't here!! I was too busy taking kids to school!!! LOL When am I gonna treat this like a business and not a hobby???

Gotta be here at the right time for sure, this whole strategy is based around catching the London opens money coming to the table so guess I should be sitting at the table too, shouldn't I???

Anyways enough said, I know what I gotta do just gotta do it!!

Thanks again Mr V. really appreciate all your good advice and the time you're spending here posting.

Please keep posting trust me I really am listening, even if it doesn't seem like it at times.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #368
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:36am Jun 12, 2014 6:36am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Wise words as always Vantage. Most of what I am doing in my testing is based around that general premise with some tweaks for safer entries and ways to stay in for more of the longer trend moves and better R:R. One thing that has become very apparent in my testing thus far is the best moves come off the agressive CCI movements. If the 210 crosses 0 and takes forever to get to +100 the CCI 14 entries after tend to go nowhere really. Now when we have the 210 cross 0 and hit the +100 hard and quick well no we have momentum on our side and the...
Thanks pres78

Our last posts crossed over but basically same goes to you as to Mr V., many many thanks for your advice and posts, they are a tremendous help.I am very lucky to have 2 seasoned veteran traders like you and Mr V along for the ride.

Hear what you are saying about the explorer and I am sure you are right about the added pressure, however I think trading is all about pressure and learning to make quick decisions under pressure so I need to learn to deal with that and should help my discipline and trading psychy shouldn't it??

Gonna persevere for a touch longer don't want anyone to think I am running scared I've put my goal up here for all to see and I am going to see it through from start to finish.

Like my good old Dad use to say "If a jobs worth starting then see it through to the end, no matter how hard it gets".

So I am determined to see it through to the end come what may, if at the end of June I've no money left so be it. I know I would of learnt an enormous amount from you guys so it will be worth it in the end.

Anyway I am not going to fail!!! Thats for sure, trust me we are only half way through and with all your great advice I can't help but succeed.

Thanks again for all your help , its awesome.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #369
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:53am Jun 12, 2014 6:53am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hate to be pedantic about this but its a crucial point otherwise we all think we're on the same page meanwhile .......... Crossing the cci 210 0 line would be a different thing/trade set up. If you are talking about an early warning that's one thing but the trade rules are cci 210 hitting +100 or -100. Clive I get the impression that you're going to start looking for something new again. If you find it great but what we are seeing day in and day out are the good winning trades that follow the touch of the cci 210 +100 and -100 levels for...
OK so from tomorrow morning:

1) In and around LO what pairs cci210 has hit either +100 or -100 for the first time, see charts, OR
do we have trend continuation ie cci 210 solid green or red
2) Do I have good angle or good separation on ma's (NB not when they crossed that doesn't matter)
3) Is price above/below both ma's
4) Retrace on 14 cci to the appropriate +100 or -100 level
4) What pairs have best strength/weakness
5) Am I looking at first few A B C's
5) How far has pair run in session

Should be a good check list initially to see what is system compliant. I haven't mentioned some of the trading basics about bigger pic SR levels, W pivots etc, trend which all needs to be considered. Trying to focus on the 1 min method.
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  • #370
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:08am Jun 12, 2014 7:08am
Quoting clivepackham
So I am determined to see it through to the end come what may, if at the end of June I've no money left so be it. I know I would of learnt an enormous amount from you guys so it will be worth it in the end. Anyway I am not going to fail!!! Thats for sure, trust me we are only half way through and with all your great advice I can't help but succeed. Thanks again for all your help , its awesome.
We all have to pay school fees in this game but I am very tempted to say reduce your trade size as low as you can go. Forget the double your acc issue its messing too much with your head.

Remember this is a business but the mental part is massive. You need to focus on getting experience and confidence that you have a winning method that is WORKING FOR YOU. Not a method that you think will work for you. Once you have that proven success, then and only then do you "go for it" with a prudent MM policy. Your stack should not be at risk while you are still working out the kinks. In trading and life in general get the experience before you go for the money.

I think I have it very clear in my head on exactly what I'm looking for here but still haven't placed a live trade. Am I overly cautious perhaps (OK not perhaps I am) but its not a race and the market will be here when I'm ready.
  • #371
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:15am Jun 12, 2014 7:15am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} We all have to pay school fees in this game but I am very tempted to say reduce your trade size as low as you can go. Forget the double your acc issue its messing too much with your head. Remember this is a business but the mental part is massive. You need to focus on getting experience and confidence that you have a winning method that is WORKING FOR YOU. Not a method that you think will work for you. Once you have that proven success, then and only then do you "go for it" with a prudent MM policy. Your stack should not be at...
I'm listening Mr V I'm listening.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #372
  • Edited 10:22am Jun 12, 2014 7:31am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Once you have that proven success, then and only then do you "go for it" with a prudent MM policy. Your stack should not be at risk while you are still working out the kinks.
I agree with you Vantage. I could never bring myself to risking 1% per pip. Still young enough and I am trading as much for my early retirement as anything. Compounding is my friend. Same % risk, increased returns as account grows and as such lot size with it. Would I love to trade fulltime? Yes and that may still play out down the road but for now my long term goals is building wealth to live my life from when I walk away from work at hopefully an early age. Will I still trade after I "retire" probably yes. Then it will be about banking some "fun" money to take trips etc... so I can enjoy my after the kids are grown part of my life with my loving wife.

Again not here to push my views or methods on anyone. Just differing views to contiplate.

My basic MM has not changed much over the past years because it works for me and my trading psyche.

 

  1. Risk = 1% of my account
  2. 1% is divided by my SL size to determine lot size
  3. No trade unless I can safely get 1:1 based on my risk (SL position)
  4. Half is taken off at 1:1 (or 1.5:1) - this is key for me because I feel good when I know I have banked money. If I close 50% at 1:1 my trade is now 100% risk free. If my SL gets hit I walk away BE. It is a good feeling knowing not only are you now risk free but I have banked so $ that is now covering my open trade. That way too I can let my trade breath and don't feel the panic to move to BE quickly so I don't lose. I can leave my SL alone and let it run.
  5. If entry was taken on say the 1 min I will swing out to 15 min or even a 1hr chart to try and trail for long runs and great R:R. This is where my money is made. Grab my 0.5% and then trail for 5:1, 10:1 even 20:1 as the market allows. Nothing better than risking 1% and banking 10% or more when it's all said and done.

That's the basic nuts and bolts of how I manage my business funds.


Quoting Vantage
{quote} I think I have it very clear in my head on exactly what I'm looking for here but still haven't placed a live trade.
I hear you again on this point Van. Not willing to risk my cash until I am sure. When my tests do go live with real dough it won't be for the same 1% per trade at first as I use with my tried, tested and true method. I will start small not caring about making money, only caring about testing the system under live conditions with hard rules to see how not only the system performs but also how I peform trading it. As we all know you can take two traders, teach them the same system, tell them to trade the same pairs and you will end up with very different results.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #373
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:47am Jun 12, 2014 7:47am
GBPUSD might be setting up nice post news trade getting in early too.

Fits our rules I believe with a nice push now AB move then pullback to 1.6825???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #374
  • Jun 12, 2014 8:32am Jun 12, 2014 8:32am
Quoting clivepackham
GBPUSD might be setting up nice post news trade getting in early too. Fits our rules I believe with a nice push now AB move then pullback to 1.6825??? {image}
Didn't get the pull back to -100. On my view there was more than a 200 point move in cci 14's value but not back to -100.
  • #375
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:48pm Jun 12, 2014 4:48pm
Some more food for thought based on my testing thus far. Trying to look for clues in how the CCI prints and what the patterns within the CCI's mean.

Not showing trades, just some ideas I am playing with while trying to turn this into a solid consistent money maker for me. What Clive has presented and Vantage has given a simple trade plan for works. The charts everyday have been proof of that. For me I want to make it safer (looking at some higher TF trend stuff for entries and also for trailing trades for crazy R:R when those bigger picture trends do form and take off), lower risk and higher reward. If some of what I share helps others even better.

For the day to day normally rangy markets though getting in and out quickly with the CCI210 and CCI14 is just what the Doctor ordered. My trade plan which I am building will deal with how to trade both scenario's. How do we know which scenario we have... simple the higher TF CCI's tell us. Still early days on this testing so I will leave this topic for another time down the road.

The point of this post and chart is to show a little of what I am testing for trend CCI divergence and how it can be a great clue and tool for knowing when to get out of trades as runs are losing steam. Can and will the runs start back up? For sure but the simple trend CCI divergence is very accurate from what I have seen thus far.

For anyone still reading we have a simple 1 minute GBPCHF chart which is a follow up to a comment I made earlier about trading in a dead trend.

First yellow line is London Open. As we can see the trend gathered steam at LO (big surprise right!)...

Second yellow line is where the uptrend officially died as we hit a CCI reading of less than +100.

As you can see between this we had rising PA with an overall falling CCI. I did throw on some saucer formations on the CCI where we dipped and the rose in CCI readings and as you can see these dips lined up perfectly with the dips in PA (again big surprise I know) but being aware of this movement can help pick out better entries. Do you feel better taking a long when the CCI readings are getting bigger or smaller? Me personally I want the CCI to be rising as I buy the dips showing the trend surge.

As we can see price moved sideways after that yellow line before falling into a downtrend where price came all the way back to the low of the day before the huge news driven end of day price surge... CRAZY!!!

My main point is to trade the trend until the end. Don't take trades when the trend CCI is not above +100 and showing signs of increasing (the saucer action). More so be wary of rising and falling markets where the trend CCI is continuously losing steam as price rises or falls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #376
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:47am Jun 13, 2014 1:47am
Quoting pres78
My main point is to trade the trend until the end. Don't take trades when the trend CCI is not above +100 and showing signs of increasing (the saucer action). More so be wary of rising and falling markets where the trend CCI is continuously losing steam as price rises or falls. {image}
This is a very tricky one. Some people that know indicators better might have more knowledge. The question would be when is an indi trailing off because its a trend reversal coming or is it trailing off because price action is going sideways before moving on again?

Here cci 210 has trailed off though price has drifted. I'd say this is a system trade. Perhaps its time of day. I suppose I'll stick to my trading view that if LO has had a relatively quick 50-70 pip move that's more than likely it until US gets going.

NB Don't confuse this with LO drift, if LO does little then move can happen later.
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  • #377
  • Jun 13, 2014 3:42am Jun 13, 2014 3:42am
I know you're all gonna laugh, looking at my trade explorer, but I think I'm getting the sprinkling of an idea here of how to trade the 1 min going forward.

Ha Ha bet that's caused some wry smiles??? But hey you learn more from your mistakes, than getting right don't you??? So on that argument alone I must be fast approaching genius level by now????

Anyway have a look at my trade plan for GBPJPY as we've had a very strong news related move here so expecting the 1 min to soon reverse back with the 15 min momentum, so looking for a HL on my 1 min to start the new push up off. So thought right, lets have a look where that might happen???

chart below explains my thoughts, what do you think guys???

By the way after such a big push up shouldn't we be selling those LH's???

Just a thought???

Mr V. pres78, your thoughts???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #378
  • Jun 13, 2014 3:56am Jun 13, 2014 3:56am
Here's how it looks on a 15 min chart in order of my favourite one.

1) break and retest of 173.00 level.

2) Find support at 172.80 last pick up point.

or

3) Find support at last major 15 min support.

Will look for a 1 minute higher low to signal start of new 1 minute trend back with 15 min momentum.

Well thats the plan anyway.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #379
  • Edited 4:25am Jun 13, 2014 4:06am | Edited 4:25am
While I'm waiting for this to all take off, let me share one of my all time favourite songs by one of my all time favourite people on this planet, Will I Am.

Love this song and might give you guys an insight into why I just keep going no matter how bad things are looking???

All these losers just make me more determined to get it right and believe me I will, nothing is gonna stop me because I've set my mind to the task in hand.

Anyways listen to the song and its words they're awesome!!!!

Inserted Video



Says it all, doesn't it guys????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #380
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:32am Jun 13, 2014 4:32am
Quoting clivepackham
I know you're all gonna laugh, looking at my trade explorer, but I think I'm getting the sprinkling of an idea here of how to trade the 1 min going forward. Ha Ha bet that's caused some wry smiles??? But hey you learn more from your mistakes, than getting right don't you??? So on that argument alone I must be fast approaching genius level by now???? Anyway have a look at my trade plan for GBPJPY as we've had a very strong news related move here so expecting the 1 min to soon reverse back with the 15 min momentum, so looking for a HL on my...
I haven't looked at why but something happened causing a massive jump late afternoon US. That gave D a solid positive close that followed through big time this morning Asian session with over 100 pip move up. After such a massive move yesterday and this morning whats going to push it more now? GJ hit a major SR area around 173.20. Add in the simple fact that its Fri morning and I'm kinda not interested either way. I'd rather go to the proctologist than trade on a Fri morning but that's just me. If you haven't made your pips by now in the week it might not be happening (barring some exceptions like pairs in strong trends and USDTRY that never knows when to quit and traders that are much better than I).
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