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NZD/USD

  • #5,641
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:06pm Jun 11, 2014 11:06pm
Another thing. Buying on a 70+ RSI is a suicide, better square off and wait til it drops bellow 70 before taking a long position again.
  • #5,642
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:16pm Jun 11, 2014 11:16pm
This pair is trading way to high
  • #5,643
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:16pm Jun 11, 2014 11:16pm
Yes that is right bulls Drive it higher!
  • #5,644
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:32pm Jun 11, 2014 11:32pm
0.25 % rate hikes ... ( till now ) still below supply zone ( bearish trigger candle ..not broken yet )

means ....

rate hikes only to maintain volatility coz we can see...... bearish pressure is quite strong ( monthly candle ? )

and ..

at the given period ( when ? dunno ) the big dog will come soon ... to continue their mission

so ?
false break on any level will be considered as next supply confirmation

and I will wait for that ........

*** trade your own plan***
not euphoria follower
  • #5,645
  • Jun 12, 2014 12:54am Jun 12, 2014 12:54am

Quoting iqyu5an
PA tried to recover and fight on dairy price fall not surprised if 8600 or above in the coming days or weeks .............if NO MORE sudden death breaking news on dairy carry trade on play ?? {quote}
not euphoria follower
  • #5,646
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:00am Jun 12, 2014 1:00am
Quoting champoooy
It should be down by now. It's 120 pips away from 90EMA and RSI is above 70. I'm expecting for it to consolidate 15-30 pips from where it is now until the EMA goes higher and push it up again. According to some interviews, "RBNZ: Doesn’t see NzdUsd exchange rate maintaining at these lvls; Bank aims at lower exchange rate & higher interest rates. Declines to comment on Intervention.". But that's a bullshit. Who the hell will increase rates if they want the exchange rates low? Ofcourse that wouldn't happen. However, what big boss say I say. So I still...

Stop misleading people please, if you are a scalper or an hourly trader that doesn't mean your words are a fact, the RSI is above 70 from H4 downwards, but on Daily,Weekly and Monthly it still has room to move.
Like I said on other Kiwi threads the RNBZ said that in the next two years wants to increase the rates with 200 points gradually, so please let me know your arguments, Ichimoku on Daily and Weekly looks bullish, but of course because we are very high I also advise caution on the longs. As someone else said here buy the dips, take the pips and follow the trend cause it never lies!

Cheers and green pips to all !
  • #5,647
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:04am Jun 12, 2014 1:04am
Kumo Twist Already in Daily with chikou span still below or within the candle formation ( not above yet )



Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Stop misleading people please, if you are a scalper or an hourly trader that doesn't mean your words are a fact, the RSI is above 70 from H4 downwards, but on Daily,Weekly and Monthly it's still has room to move. Like I said on other Kiwi threads the RNBZ said that in the next two years wants to increase the rates with 200 points gradually, so please let me know your arguments, Ichimoku on Daily and Weekly looks bullish, but of course because we are very high I also advise caution on the longs. As someone else said here buy the dips,...
not euphoria follower
  • #5,648
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:10am Jun 12, 2014 2:10am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Stop misleading people please, if you are a scalper or an hourly trader that doesn't mean your words are a fact, the RSI is above 70 from H4 downwards, but on Daily,Weekly and Monthly it still has room to move. Like I said on other Kiwi threads the RNBZ said that in the next two years wants to increase the rates with 200 points gradually, so please let me know your arguments, Ichimoku on Daily and Weekly looks bullish, but of course because we are very high I also advise caution on the longs. As someone else said here buy the dips, take...

If you think i'm misleading people, then read again. I just shared what RBNZ said earlier about their intentions on the exchange rates. I never said that the pair is bear, did I? What I was pointing out that at these levels, resistance will be getting stronger(if the RBNZ's intention is infact true). If you're going to buy on dips, make sure that dips are not 5 pips 10 pips, or else you'll be left hanging for a week in the topside when it gets retraced. But yeah, that's true, buy on dips. Challenge RBNZ. And btw, if you think that I am a scalper, where the hell in my comment did I say go short? You just made a huge misunderstanding dude
  • #5,649
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:25am Jun 12, 2014 2:25am
Wow, this NZD move is relentless
  • #5,650
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:48am Jun 12, 2014 3:48am
Quoting champoooy
{quote} If you think i'm misleading people, then read again. I just shared what RBNZ said earlier about their intentions on the exchange rates. I never said that the pair is bear, did I? What I was pointing out that at these levels, resistance will be getting stronger(if the RBNZ's intention is infact true). If you're going to buy on dips, make sure that dips are not 5 pips 10 pips, or else you'll be left hanging for a week in the topside when it gets retraced. But yeah, that's true, buy on dips. Challenge RBNZ. And btw, if you think that I am a...

Champoooy, I didn't want to mean any disrespect really and I'm sorry if you felt that way, but given the fact that RBNZ said that will continue to increase the rates with 200 points in the next two years PLUSSSS RBNZ’s McDermott says rates expected to go up another 0.5% this year http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...0-5-this-year/ , I think that you can overlook the RSI overbought aspect on M30-H1-H4.
I supposed that you are a scalper since you said that to buy at this RSI levels is suicide and I thought you trade on those times frames M30H1H4 .

Again I apologize if I said anything bad against you but was not intended and I hope your strategy will payoff in the end.

Regards,
VladG
  • #5,651
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:00am Jun 12, 2014 4:00am
Quoting iqyu5an
Kumo Twist Already in Daily with chikou span still below or within the candle formation ( not above yet ) {quote}


iqyu5an, if you are watching IChimoku on daily I will also explain what I see : as per my chart below :

On the 19th of May (19.05.2014) this year we saw an intersection of KijunSen and TenkanSen with a bearish perspective which was confirmed with the penetration of the Kumo ( cloud ) and held the trend until the 4th of this month ( 04.06.2014 ), also prior to that date I thought that we will see even a bigger drop because the price pierced down through the cloud and confirmed the moved which indicated a strong bearish momentum. At that point on Weekly the price reached the KijunSen around 0.84145 and bounced, going back into the Kumo ( cloud ) and confirmed the reverse of the trend, giving the pair a short to medium term bullish momentum.
Also the RSI on Daily,Weekly and Monthly are at high levels but are pointed upwards so with that said I think that we may overlook the overbought aspect and wait for new HHs very soon.
On the fundamental side ,as you will see on my post above McDermott said that they will still increase it with 0.5 this year, so if we take that in consideration and looking back to what happen last night ( after a 0.25 increase we saw almost a 200 pips rally on the upside ), we even might go to 0.89 - 0.90 until 2015.

This is for everybody who is reading my posts, PLEASE don't take my charts/post/comments as facts, I comment and post just what I see on charts and figure out from the fundamentals, I've learned from my mistakes but I've learned even more from the mistakes of the others.

Regards and green pips to all,
VladG
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  • #5,652
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:44am Jun 12, 2014 4:44am


no problem ... coz i'm flat on my bull camp since 860x from 842x . looking higher place for sell ONLY IF i see any false break ( here )



Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} iqyu5an, if you are watching IChimoku on daily I will also explain what I see : as per my chart below : On the 19th of May (19.05.2014) this year we saw an intersection of KijunSen and TenkanSen with a bearish perspective which was confirmed with the penetration of the Kumo ( cloud ) and held the trend until the 4th of this month ( 04.06.2014 ), also prior to that date I thought that we will see even a bigger drop because the price pierced down through the cloud and confirmed the moved which indicated a strong bearish momentum. At that point...
not euphoria follower
  • #5,653
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:51am Jun 12, 2014 4:51am
Quoting iqyu5an
no problem ... coz i'm flat on my bull camp since 860x from 842x . looking higher place for sell ONLY IF i see any false break ( here ) {quote}

.8670 is a big resistance, but at the moment I see that the former big resistance .8610 will become support and around .8650 we will the pivot . For now I have only on EURUSD open and I will wait for NY session to see what US data will bring and how I will play it out for the end of the week.


Green pips again and all the best
  • #5,654
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:58am Jun 12, 2014 4:58am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} .8670 is a big resistance, but at the moment I see that the former big resistance .8610 will become support and around .8650 we will the pivot . For now I have only on EURUSD open and I will wait for NY session to see what US data will bring and how I will play it out for the end of the week. Green pips again and all the best


i see bullish chyper or shark on EU.. targeting 3600/3700 but who knows ....
not euphoria follower
  • #5,655
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:47am Jun 12, 2014 5:47am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} i see bullish chyper or shark on EU.. targeting 3600/3700 but who knows ....

Oh no no I hope you are wrong , I have to close this short from 1.3510 so I can relax with my profit so far from this month !
  • #5,656
  • Jun 12, 2014 7:36am Jun 12, 2014 7:36am

Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} i see bullish chyper or shark on EU.. targeting 3600/3700 but who knows ....
not euphoria follower
  • #5,657
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:17pm Jun 12, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Working on it, I forgot we are all forex guru's in here and can predict price direction. What makes you think economy going to slow down? You guys relying on strong exports and import primarily it seems. Was there in april for first time, beauty of a place I must say!

Hi RTM...... I have to say you were right on this one, I hope you ended up doing well on the trade.


Living in NZ , I never thought we'd end back up here so quickly, but I still believe the price will come down soon. There is n article in the Herald today stating how we are to expect new valuations on our homes , which is meant to jump up quite a lot, in turn means our rates will go through the roof again (already paying over $2400 a year now).

Also all the major banks have begun raising interest rates...........so that will slow things down abit.
  • #5,658
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:44pm Jun 12, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting zen252
{quote} Hi RTM...... I have to say you were right on this one, I hope you ended up doing well on the trade. Living in NZ , I never thought we'd end back up here so quickly, but I still believe the price will come down soon. There is n article in the Herald today stating how we are to expect new valuations on our homes , which is meant to jump up quite a lot, in turn means our rates will go through the roof again (already paying over $2400 a year now). Also all the major banks have begun raising interest rates...........so that will slow things down...
All good mate, you win some you gotta lose some also. I love the kiwi! I have made a killing buying this so far and today from cable, sick money.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,659
  • Jun 12, 2014 5:44pm Jun 12, 2014 5:44pm
closed longs, shorts triggered (2 lots) more than willing to close, playing this for .86 but will to hold for .848

https://charts.mql5.com/4/960/nzdusd...ivision1-2.png
  • #5,660
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:39pm Jun 12, 2014 9:39pm
NZD perfectly reached .8700 as my wish,
but the rocket launched more rapidly than expected made me a little nervous.
i was out of my long position @ .8668 with 150pips,in a sense,maybe could get a better choice.

even though,the bulls still dominate.
if it could pull back to .8604,
there should be another long oppotunity for me.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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no other killers to me but emotion
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