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NZD/USD

  • #5,601
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:16pm Jun 11, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} The RBNZ did this but they are trying to talk it down! RBNZ SAYS SPEED, EXTENT OF RATE RISE TO DEPEND ON DATA AND INFLATION Doesn't this sound like next time around they could drop the rate again?

Drop the rate? In March they said that in the next two years they want a 200 points higher rate, now they provided the next hike, I don't really understand why they should drop it given the current price and GDP stability in NZ.
  • #5,602
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:17pm Jun 11, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting irongoose
I love this statement from the RBNZ..........." RBNZ SAYS HIGH LEVEL OF NZ$ UNSUSTAINABLE " So why the hell did they raise the rate for if its at a unsustainable level !!??? What did they expect to happen when they did that?
NZ banks borrow money slap interest then sell to NZ home buyers and make money.
Is it sustainable for overall economy? No
Its stupid policy but hey I am going to rip this apart and take my cut

By watching Eli, I learned that even though markets look their very best when they are setting new highs, that is often the best time to sell. He instilled to me the idea that, to some extent, to be a good trader, you have to be a contrarian.
Paul Tudor Jones
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,603
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:23pm Jun 11, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} NZ banks borrow money slap interest then sell to NZ home buyers and make money. Is it sustainable for overall economy? No Its stupid policy but hey I am going to rip this apart and take my cut By watching Eli, I learned that even though markets look their very best when they are setting new highs, that is often the best time to sell. He instilled to me the idea that, to some extent, to be a good trader, you have to be a contrarian. Paul Tudor Jones
in view of dairy/commodity prices down nzd exchange rate unsustanable.the current rally we r seeing is possibly exhaustion rally.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #5,604
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:25pm Jun 11, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting drzakir123
{quote} in view of dairy/commodity prices down nzd exchange rate unsustanable.
30% NZ economy is depended on dairy products and milk prices are all time low.
I will continue selling even at 87-88
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,605
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:25pm Jun 11, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Drop the rate? In March they said that in the next two years they want a 200 points higher rate, now they provided the next hike, I don't really understand why they should drop it given the current price and GDP stability in NZ.
They are the ones saying price is at a unsustainable level and extent of rate rise will depend on Data and Inflation. So what else should I be thinking??
  • #5,606
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:28pm Jun 11, 2014 5:28pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} They are the ones saying price is at a unsustainable level and extent of rate rise will depend on Data and Inflation. So what else should I be thinking??

To tell you the truth? The chart my friend it doesn't lie and until .87 I don't see any good reason to sell, I would be a little bit more courageous and say even .88 but first I want to see this .86ish levels be broken before adding to my already existing longs.


Cheers and green pip$ !
  • #5,607
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:29pm Jun 11, 2014 5:29pm
Sold heavily at .8604...i'm with u on this davit...
  • #5,608
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:31pm Jun 11, 2014 5:31pm
Today's rate hike only confirmed a long time frame break out of a bullish triangle
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,609
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:32pm Jun 11, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} To tell you the truth? The chart my friend it doesn't lie and until .87 I don't see any good reason to sell, I would be a little bit more courageous and say even .88 but first I want to see this .86ish levels be broken before adding to my already existing longs. Cheers and green pip$ !
I'm sure the price will continue going up in the coming weeks as more investors flock to the NZD for the higher interest rates but for now the fast easy money is done for the day.
  • #5,610
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:35pm Jun 11, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} I'm sure the price will continue going up in the coming weeks as more investors flock to the NZD for the higher interest rates but for now the fast easy money is done for the day.
Buy the dips (NZD) and focus on the Aud later.
  • #5,611
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:39pm Jun 11, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} I'm sure the price will continue going up in the coming weeks as more investors flock to the NZD for the higher interest rates but for now the fast easy money is done for the day.
One thing I learned about trading.If its too obvious expect the unexpected.Market could sell aggressively just because everyone expects to go higher.

Fonterra Auction

http://www.dairyco.org.uk/market-inf.../#.U5jaOCimUXQ
The next auction is due to take place on Tuesday 17 June 2014.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,612
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:41pm Jun 11, 2014 5:41pm
milk price w i l l go up
  • #5,613
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:41pm Jun 11, 2014 5:41pm
Quoting strat1x
{quote} They RAISED rates why wouldnt price go higher.
i certainly don't disagree.....name a pair that moves that amount in that amount of time and tell me how many don't give up some of that momentum....my suggestion is merely based on not letting yourself as a trader land in euphoric state....that rarely ends well..
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #5,614
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:52pm Jun 11, 2014 5:52pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} i certainly don't disagree.....name a pair that moves that amount in that amount of time and tell me how many don't give up some of that momentum....my suggestion is merely based on not letting yourself as a trader land in euphoric state....that rarely ends well..
That is what risk management and stop losses are for, when you're wrong that is. No one is ever right 100% of the time in this market that's for sure.
  • #5,615
  • Edited 7:21pm Jun 11, 2014 6:05pm | Edited 7:21pm
Quoting Hickson
Strong resistance around 0.8610 currently. Probably a lot of sell stops. Well, if this breaks a lot of shorts might get blown out of the market. But it is hard to tell for me. Also curious: Aussie shot up on the New Zeeland news, then immediately dropped to the break out level ... does anybody understand that move?
Yeah I didn't understand about that upward spike in Aussie either. But given that it shot right back down immediately afterwards it's clear that that was not a permanent move, probably some HFT playing, my best guess.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #5,616
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:12pm Jun 11, 2014 8:12pm
RBNZ needs to intervene. 90 degrees on the charts and all S&R levels broken

its gone into total euphoria.
  • #5,617
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:16pm Jun 11, 2014 8:16pm
Its forming classic Gartley
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,618
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:17pm Jun 11, 2014 8:17pm
Quoting Hickson
Strong resistance around 0.8610 currently. Probably a lot of sell stops. Well, if this breaks a lot of shorts might get blown out of the market. But it is hard to tell for me. Also curious: Aussie shot up on the New Zeeland news, then immediately dropped to the break out level ... does anybody understand that move?
Ah apparently that resistence at around 0.8610 just became a former resistence and is now the new support. And N/U just shot up another 23+ pips and broke 0.8640 admist all the "Short!" shouts.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #5,619
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:21pm Jun 11, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Ah apparently that resistence at around 0.8610 just became a former resistence and is now the new support. And N/U just shot up another 23+ pips and broke 0.8640 amidst all the "Short!" shouts.
its 8637 8640 not broken "amidst all the "Short!" shouts"

Does not matter what others call here including me.You want to go long?Please do.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #5,620
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:27pm Jun 11, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting Halba
RBNZ needs to intervene. 90 degrees on the charts and all S&R levels broken its gone into total euphoria.
Of course they are going to, hence their warning: "The Bank does not believe the exchange rate is sustainable at current levels". Interpretation: If any of you sucker traders out there hike up the NZ exchange rate just because I raised the interest rate today, I am going to quash you like a hammer on a fly so fast before you can even utter the first syllable in "intervention"!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
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