Trading is as simple as ABCD

Welcome Prez78....Looking forward to your Insights.

Hi Guys

Sorry I haven’t been posting too much recently but was very aware that my Explorer was falling through the floor so decided to devote some time to reviewing my trades and looking into what Ichanges I should make to my trading plan to turn it around, pronto!! After all I’ve got my goal to double my account in 30 days and my performance so far is not looking too promising, something had to be done!!

I also want to thank Mr V. For all his great posts, they have been a great help and very informative and I have taken on board some of his ideas in particular his suggestion to use the currency strength indy instead of the top trenders indy to find the strongest trending pairs.

I really like the idea of using the CSW indy for picking the best pair as my feeling is its better than my top trenders indy. Seriously considering replacing my top trenders completely with the CSW as my first filter to point me to the strongest trending pairs to trade. Up to now it’s been looking at top 3 against bottom 3 , but going forward might cut that down to top 2 against bottom 2 so giving me just 4 pairs to concentrate on..

By the way the strategy I am developing here can be used to trade all timeframes so will look into re-coding my CSW to work on the timeframe it sits on that way guys can use it to trade any timeframe they please.

Now as I am sure you are aware by now I like to trade 1 minute reversals because price can only go up or down so somewhere on that chart price will turn one way and not come back. Basically a 1 min reversal is a 15 min CCI turn. Therefore if I can find some 15 min CCI turns in a strong trending 15 min pair I’ve got it cracked surely?? With that in mind I thought let’s have a look at the top 15 min trenders according to my CSW then try to trade the next 15 min CCI turn back with the trend.

So here’s some 15 min charts that are in the top 4 trenders according to my CSW indy. Have a look at them and see what you think? Are they worth trading???









Pretty good heh??? How come the signals work with such boring consistency ? Everyone and his dog knows indicators just don’t work? They lag price don’t they?? They can’t be relied upon??

Well I’ll let you into a little secret, as long as you’re trading a strong trending pair they work absolutely fine, as the charts above verify. That being the case then, its absolutely imperative to make sure you’re trading a strong trending pair. Oh and whilst we’re on the subject of lagging indicators, just have a look at some of these CCI signals. Can you see how some are leading the price?? Yep thats right momentum indicators will lead price. But don’t take my word for it have a look at some of these entries the CCI is coming down and the price is going up but shortly follows the CCI turn down. Have a look at 2 very good examples of CCI leading the price on EURCAD and CADCHF the CCI signal at 10.45 11/06/14 clearly leads the price. Now make sure you use that to your advantage, first thing we want to see as price approaches a key level is the CCI turning down first then theres every chance the price will follow.

Gonna leave that discussion there for the time being but when I’ve more time I will go into it in more detail and explain how momentum indicators actually work and therefore how they can actually lead price and be a great edge in trading Forex.

Moving on I have got to set about recoding my Strongest/weakest Indicator,so that it gives the strongest/weakest for the chart its on. Well, when I say "I" , of course I really me my dear old friend "Ted", if I can just sweet talk him into re-coding it for me. The trouble is I have had so many harebrained ideas in the past for him to code up, he’s getting a bit fed up with me now. I don’t really blame him ,to be honest, as he has coded a multitude of indys and EA's for me already.

Now as well as updating my trading plan with the CSW I have been busy reviewing my past trades to see what’s going on with my Explorer account. I have made some observations that need addressing in my trading plan..
The main observation I've made recently is to not take any ABCD set ups if the 15 min is overbought or oversold, over the +/-200 level, let any 1 min CCI signals go and wait for price to come back closer to the 100sma before contemplating a new entry. Makes perfect sense when you think about it as we are trading the 15min momentum we need to pay attention to make sure we don't enter when its overbought or sold, don't we???? I think this will keep me out of many losing trades going forward.

Another problem I’ve found is I was taking entries based solely on a CCI turn and not waiting for price to pullback to one of my key levels so from now on I will only take entries that are at or very close to a key level.

This gives me an additional benefit as I can get my stop, better protected, behind some sort of key level. My preference if I am close to the 100SMA is to put my initial stop behind the 100SMA. What better place is there to protect your money than behind old Freddies favourite entry??? Also will risk 10% of my trading account across that stop so if 10 pip stop then risk 1% per pip, if 20 pip stop then 0.5%. To be honest if entry is any further than 20 pips away from a key level its not worth the risk, let it go and wait for the next pullback.

Lastly, I have had some losers recently that would of gone on for a nice little profit had I not been too cautious. I either closed out too early when HA candle colour changed against me or went to BE too quickly. So I have decided to modify my Trading Plan accordingly. I have decided to leave my initial stop, behind the Key level in place until price is challenging point B. Then and only then move it to BE.

I have made all the above modifications to my trading plan so now feel confident I can achieve my goal of doubling my account in 30 days despite my Explorer account performance thus far.

There done, now I’m ready freshly armed with my revised trading plan to get back into battle starting tomorrow’s London and New York open and see how it goes.

But before I go let me tell you a funny thing that happened to me today that confirmed to me that the universe is on my side making sure I can’t fail to reach my goal.

Today as I typed this post, my good old mate Ted called me to have a chat just as I was typing the bit about him recoding my CSW for me. How weird is that?? What perfect timing, but it doesn’t stop there, guess what?

He talked me through how to change my Currency Strength Indy code so it will now show the Strongest/weakest on whatever timeframe its sitting on. So if you move your timeframe then it automatically calculates the strongest/weakest on that time frame. Now at a click of my mouse I can instantly see which pair is the strongest/weakest on any of the other timeframes. . Bloody awesome!!!

But here’s the spooky bit. By some strange quirk (I didn't change this code) it only shows the top 2 red and bottom 2 blue as per my post comments above??? Someone up there’s looking after me that’s for sure.

Thanks Dad, love you forever xxx

PS Here’s the new CSW if you’re interested, very, very powerful tool.

As noted I am neck deep in back testing and forward testing (paper trading). What I show here is not any of the new configurations but just my take on how I would have traded EURJPY after LO today using the CCI 14 and CCI 210.

One thing people need to note (that I am sure most of you know and have thought of) is that we need to be mindful of the readings of a MTF indi. The CCI 210 is what we call the trend CCI as it represents the 15 min CCI. Well let's not forget that while the CCI 210 may read -100 at 10:01 come 10:14:59 when the first 15 min bar after LO actually closes it may no longer be below -100...

While trading 1 min entries following 15 min trend is great and works we just need to be mindful of keeping track of where the CCI 210 actually is when the bars are closing so we don't get sucked into false trends. See first chart...

LO and the closing minute of each of the first seven 15 min bars of the London session... between closing of 6 and close of 7 the trend CCI did move above +100 but look where that 15 min bar closed... below -100. Not only did it close below -100 but it did so very quickly after breaking the 0 level. My tests have shown these quick burst moves on the trend CCI offer the best entries on the CCI 14 as it signals a supported move. As you can see this quick, fake out move occurred as the entry I show on my second chart formed. Fake up LH move to gather liquidity by trapping longs to fill their shorts. Classic. Now I don't say this to make you micro manage the CCI 210 but as you can see if we are not aware of the timing we can get trapped. Fortunately in this case the CCI 14 did not give a clear long signal after the trend CCI hit +100 so we were safe. Just note that at no time after LO was the CCI 210 (15 min CCI 14) above +100 on the closing of a bar...



Second chart has some notes on why I would have shorted the bar marked with the blue line shortly after the LH formed. Not going to bore you with the details and just a few notes to ponder and research on your own charts. Not using the top 8 so that's not seen on my charts. Also not using the 200MA as I hate MA cross over systems and quite frankly if the CCI's agree and we are below the 100 then I don't need to wait even longer for the 100 to cross the 200 and show good separation etc... but that's just my personal preference. I do have a 5 pip buffer on my 100 MA to keep me out of some ranging. If we can't even get 5 pips away from the MA I don't want that kind of PA.



As I said over time I will share some of my mods that I am testing if they prove worthy of sharing. If the interest is there I may also share some ideas on managing the trades using the CCI's to try and ride those longer trades for some crazy R:R and perhaps even a bit on my MM but we will see how things go and what time allows.

Hi pres78

Just a quick thanks for your post had a quick look but to be honest a bit too tired to absorb it all so will check it out tomoz with fresh eyes and a fresh brain.

Off to bed now early start tomoz and a revised trading plan to try.

"Fake up LH move to gather liquidity by trapping longs to fill their shorts. Classic"

I like that Pres78..please continue...I do also like what happened next..

Hi Clive

I have been looking extensively at 15 min chart also. Mainly at turns in addition to this abcd which is more for entry after the initial turn.

Just a reminder for casual lurkers that Clive's screenshots show the strength weakness at the time the pic was taken and the S/W comparison will not have been the same when the various trades highlighted happened real time. Typically the SW meter does a pretty good job of highlighting the pairs to focus on.

Hi pres 78


Great stuff. I have only been interested in the 210 cci hitting either +100 or -100 for a trend direction. Once that happens I am looking for the abc move and generally for the pullback rules on 14 cci (which generally work really well) to confirm. The basics of price structure which amongst others will generally apply to trades such as price either testing the immediate range, or (highly likely) breaking the immediate range then becomes the focus.

Perfect example this mornings gbpjpy break above the range. I note your comments on the entry when cci's are moving up, nice. This abc with entry around 171.65 would have met my eyeball 200 ish cc1 14 retrace (even if not retraced to -100. CM showing gbp among strongest and jpy weakest.

At the same time though euraud did comply as far as I can tell with all rules, SW meter had aud strongest and eur weak, turned out perfect 15/85 trade.

Anyway pres keep 'em coming.

Can't see any reason for this GBPCHF move to stop in the immediate future so looking to enter on break and retest of last resistance 1.51455 or nice 25 level of 1.5150

Probably will, but the first trade is the best and we have had several legs up already this morning. At least now had a 14 cci retrace back to -100.

Yes I really love those break and retest of 100SMAs I am convinced thats the favourite entry of Fred & Co hence the good push ups that follow more often than not, like this gbpchf coming back to 100sma but not seeing a lot of reaction as yet

I like this entry even if it doesn't work out as got my stop behind 100 sma which I am hoping Fred is about??

Fredd???? Where are you???

Could be one of those days where Fred has moved price his 50 pips or so in and around LO and has now gone off for his tea break. If I had been in the first couple of moves from the start I'd be happy to carry on going but as mentioned risk increases with each leg up. Not saying you don't take it but personally I'd be looking to protect myself quicker in the 3rd, 4th move up if that was my first trade of the day especially if it seemingly doesn't want to go. Then having made that decision live with the result (i.e. might get tagged at BE just to watch it go up 10 mins later).

But the trend CCI is dying... Don't chase trades when the momentum is dying. If the trend CCI is not above +100 when 14 prints a signal stay on the bench.

Blue line LO, yellow lines possible longs. First line is one I would take. Momentum burst after LO closing above yesterday high after CCI 14 retrace. Next one meets the retrace rules but is only 15 pips from the 50 level so we need to weigh the risk / range etc... Right at LO we had found support and come up out of the MA so when we broke YH with force that would be good enough for me. Close to 25 level with tons of room to 50.

Just expanding last post in terms of rules cci 210 first hit +100 to signal buys around 1.5109, the first cci 14 retrace to -100 happened few mins later around 1.5110. The red line shows where first signal was and you can judge for yourself how many legs up there have been after that.

Only point now is IF you trade at highs 1.5150 fine, but I'd rather be buying with pips in the bank for the day than having 1st entry of the day up near the highs after a decent move has already happened.

If this trade fails you'd need to record it as loss (doh!!) (arguably) 5th move of session, 1st entry of the day. If you start seeing this note coming up too often then you know what not to do.

Yep makes perfect sense as usual Mr V. but also its funny I've sat there so many times and told myself "It can't go any higher it has to turn around soon" Then guess what?? It soars on ahead for the whole day and even worst I've tried to catch the reversal and been smashed to bits!!

Ha Ha guess thats what makes a market???

Only thing I like about this is GBPCHF has just broken new grounds on daily so this could be the start of a Daily breakout and a massive move up so guess I'm thinking is the risk worth the possible reward???

At the risk of speaking too soon , it does appears to be getting a bit of support at last resistance level at 1.5147??

But who knows??Like I say its got 2 choices it can either go up or down??

Hi pres78

Make no mistake I'll be remembering this comment as I will trade (first one or two moves) if cci 210 hits +100 or -100 and then retraces back into middle of the range.

In this instance jumping to Clives defense the 210 cci did look like it was headed back up when he entered (but yes below +100) and fell off a lot after the trade was taken.

Hi pres78

Just like Mr V. it all makes perfect sense I am looking into how can we find those early moves when price first makes its move??

Gonna look into an indicator that alarms whenever 100sma is first crossed as that is such a great place to look for our first entry Break and retest of 100sma, I am absolutely convinced its where Fred and Co enter many of their trades.

Please keep on posting.

I'm listening.

On a good note guys best thing about my entry???

I waited for price to come down so I could get my 10 pip stop behind some sort of defence one or more of our Key Levels. This time it was the 100sma, a 50 level and the last resistance level , so far they are doing a great job.

Using these key areas to slip our 10 pip stop behind is crucial to this strategy I'm sure.

Don't get me wrong we are recently above 50 and as you said sometimes price just climbs and falls forever. I am in agreement with Van though that right around / after LO and the same at NYO using will give the best entries with the best momentum as the big boys come to work and move around their money / manipulate the markets to fill their orders etc... so that's when I want to be watch for that first or second entry.

If trend CCI moves back into trend +100 and we get a nice 14 retrace maybe but for now on GBPCHF the round 1 excitement is over.

Buy low at support / demand , sell high at resistance /supply. Rinse and repeat daily.