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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,261
  • Jun 11, 2014 3:20am Jun 11, 2014 3:20am
Quoting albchr
{quote} To be honest Lalu I would rather it hit 30 but as I slept it got close at 37. I'm long now with one small position at 6764. Should it still reach 30 I may add depending on the PA that leads there. For cable I've noticed over time that "most" turns/bounces occur close to the xx30 and xx70. Prior to the news though I'm watching closely with a tight leash.

Excellent. Good luck.
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #1,262
  • Jun 11, 2014 3:57am Jun 11, 2014 3:57am
136 + 84 = 220 pips on gbpnzd

added trade after -100 pip drawdown.

big positive swap too.

(also see KiwiOz target hit)
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  • #1,263
  • Jun 11, 2014 4:12am Jun 11, 2014 4:12am
LOL... I'd be lying if I said I wasn't getting a bit concerned my AU shorts here. I don't live and breath by the indexes. Just another tool but....

The AUD CHF indexes are also concerning atm....lol
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,264
  • Jun 11, 2014 4:51am Jun 11, 2014 4:51am
I've executed some long orders (x8) AUDCHF at 0.8460 now and let other Long positive carry trade orders (5x) (total order interest +3% per year) (buying zone 0.7950- 0.8250) further into the market long term.
FXcube
  • #1,265
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:08am Jun 11, 2014 5:08am
Quoting Forexcube
I've executed some long orders (x8) AUDCHF at 0.8460 now and let other Long positive carry trade orders (5x) (total order interest +3% per year) (buying zone 0.7950- 0.8250) further into the market long term. FXcube
I think that's a wise move Forexcube and congratulations on your prior longs. I see nothing but a steady climb with up pressure not letting up at all.

I have cut my AUDCHF short for a loss. Maybe it will turn for a retrace but it's past my comfort level at this point. Looks like it will reach the 8504 SR I have. If so, I'll look for retrace possibilities there.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,266
  • Edited 9:29am Jun 11, 2014 9:08am | Edited 9:29am
Current running trades
NU short 4x8550-55
AU shorts 8x84 9370 9358
AUD/CHF short 6x 8428-8395
Aud/CAD short 4x 1.220 209
AUD/J Short 2x 9583

Some in profit some in DD currently running less then 1% DD
Its fine in my book

Trade at your own risk.Your money.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,267
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:15am Jun 11, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Forexcube
I've executed some long orders (x8) AUDCHF at 0.8460 now and let other Long positive carry trade orders (5x) (total order interest +3% per year) (buying zone 0.7950- 0.8250) further into the market long term. FXcube
Hi Cube
Buying at top 8460 8x is puzzling to me.Based on BB system price should retrace below 84.If you intended to go long big why not wait for retrace then load up.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,268
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:33am Jun 11, 2014 9:33am
Quoting ikdenk
136 + 84 = 220 pips on gbpnzd added trade after -100 pip drawdown. big positive swap too. (also see KiwiOz target hit) {image}
Trading GBP crosses is generally not recommended unless you are expert level trader.Making mistake here will cost you big
Average ADR is 100pips more or less.
I rarely trade GBP crosses
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,269
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:33am Jun 11, 2014 9:33am
Quoting Davit
Current running trades NU short 4x8550-55 AU shorts 8x84 9370 9358 AUD/CHF short 6x 8428-8395 Aud/CAD short 4x 1.220 209 AUD/J Short 2x 9583 Some in profit some in DD currently running less then 1% DD Its fine in my book Trade at your own risk.Your money.

Excellent - Im also short NU and AU

Have not set my TP yet , still undecided
  • #1,270
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:39am Jun 11, 2014 9:39am
Quoting Feefee
{quote} Excellent - Im also short NU and AU Have not set my TP yet , still undecided
as long as you allow room to load up later then you should be fine.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,271
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:48am Jun 11, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Davit
{quote} as long as you allow room to load up later then you should be fine.

Yes, risk is only 1 % for each

In your opinion what is the best way to trail profits...?
  • #1,272
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:50am Jun 11, 2014 9:50am
Quoting Feefee
{quote} Yes, risk is only 1 % for each In your opinion what is the best way to trail profits...?
Generally I look to get out at middle BB which is 20MA but you can keep moving SL lower to protect profits and let it run down.
(should of done that myself on EU)
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,273
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:54am Jun 11, 2014 9:54am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Generally I look to get out at middle BB which is 20MA but you can keep moving SL lower to protect profits and let it run down. (should of done that myself on EU)

Yes I usually also use the middle Band of the Bollinger or TMA to set my tp which is quite helpful really,Yes agreed, better to trail cause its sad to see potential profits wither away before your eyes, which tends to happen alot on higher timeframes
  • #1,274
  • Jun 11, 2014 2:42pm Jun 11, 2014 2:42pm
Crane Beach MA
Background my son
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,275
  • Jun 11, 2014 4:58pm Jun 11, 2014 4:58pm
Running 1.5 DD
Which to me is miniscule.

My philosophy on trading
Trades are selected for highest probability and only closed as loss if original conditions are changed.
I am running DD on NU but fundamentally I am correct shorting it.I was correct fundamentally shorting EU as well when just about everyone was bullish.

Trades needs time to mature.Could be few days or a week.Once again I am a swing trader.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,276
  • Jun 11, 2014 5:07pm Jun 11, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting Davit
Crane Beach MA Background my son {image} {image}
Lovely sun set. Teach him some trading soon ^^


"
Running 1.5 DD
Which to me is miniscule.
My philosophy on trading
Trades are selected for highest probability and only closed as loss if original conditions are changed.
I am running DD on NU but fundamentally I am correct shorting it.I was correct fundamentally shorting EU as well when just about everyone was bullish.
Trades needs time to mature.Could be few days or a week.Once again I am a swing trader."

Nothing lost yet. I took a small long on NZD, got 20 pips, stop to BE now. This is taking a bit off my risk with Aussie if these currencies keep on flying. Btw, Aussie daily looks a bit toppish to me plus possible H&S.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,277
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:27am Jun 12, 2014 2:27am
Davit, with your system, wouldn't the correct place to short NZD/USD be ~0.87? You shorted from weekly trend line resistance which made sense (I did as well), but I'm not sure why you held onto it when it broke back above (I got out but didn't reverse and go long like I'd have liked because I was cooking a turkey then went to bed). My weekly and monthly charts suggest even higher targets. 0.885 the 2011 high, and 0.9915 the 27% extension of the full range (off the monthly chart I posted, sorry) if .885 doesn't hold, but 0.87 is a good short-term target.

NZD/USD 8-hour
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NZD/USD monthly
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,278
  • Edited 6:29pm Jun 12, 2014 6:07pm | Edited 6:29pm
running 10% DD

Deleted all my limit GU shorts prior of news except one
6880 -50pips running at 1x
So no biggy

Overall even though I am in red I feel good about my trades.
Could of done better job on my entries and its lesson dully noted not to repeat.

Added new Short
2x G/CHF short at 5210

Inspired by the great portrait painters of old, Pierre Gonnord creates large scale portraits of people considered to be outsiders: the destitute, homeless, gypsies, and the blind.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,279
  • Jun 12, 2014 6:12pm Jun 12, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting Davit
running 10% DD Deleted all my limit GU shorts prior of news except one 6880 -50pips running at 1x So no biggy Overall even though I am in red I feel good about my trades. Could of done better job on my entries and its lesson dully noted not to repeat. Added new Short 2x G/CHF short at 5210 {image}
You post when & which trades you're in. You post your results. And you post when you're in a drawdown.
Not many on FF that can say the same.
  • #1,280
  • Edited 6:41pm Jun 12, 2014 6:27pm | Edited 6:41pm
Davit TP? any fibo level? or bollinger? gbpchf
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