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  • #3,921
  • Jun 11, 2014 7:49am Jun 11, 2014 7:49am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Good luck with them, I'm considering selling Haliburton up where it is at $66.93, probably watch it as its too late to put a order in
I think i may of missed the boat on haliburton, it closed at $67.11 yesterday with a high of $67.35, the market is already down in pre market so haliburton may gap down. If for some reason it doesn't and its around $67 or just under then I will long puts for Fridays expiration, prob $66.50 for 20c or under
  • #3,922
  • Edited 8:32am Jun 11, 2014 8:08am | Edited 8:32am
European stocks fell from a six-year high and U.S. equity-index futures declined as the World Bank cut its global growth forecast.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...h-s-p-500.html

I am considering long puts on IWM, as it looks the weakest of US indices. Maybe $116 for Fridays expiration if it tryes to fill the gap on the open.



Edit > In $116 @ 0.68
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,923
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:48am Jun 11, 2014 9:48am
For this IWM trade to work, IMO I need a decisive break down trough 115.70 level, which will then lead to 115... otherwise is busted.
Chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jgyuKZEY/
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,924
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:16am Jun 11, 2014 10:16am
Quoting StrayDog
For this IWM trade to work, IMO I need a decisive break down trough 115.70 level, which will then lead to 115... otherwise is busted. Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/jgyuKZEY/
Hi StrayDog,

I could see that happening, no prob - and I agree that the broad-based IWM will probably show weakness faster than other indices if a risk-off sentiment takes hold.

I'm in just one IWM spread, below. I figured we would see continued drift-up in the IWM but not fast enough to see $120 by Jun 21. So my favored outcome is we'd get to $118-$119 by 6/21 and continue trending up to $121 or beyond by 7/19. If that transpires I got the 7/19 calls at a 25% discount. And if that indeed is what takes place I may spread again with short calls further out for some more credit.

If IWM falls I will just wait for short 6/21 calls to expire and then sell calls again to try to get back to even or profit.
I don't usually like to do low-value credit legs like this, because it might only really make sense to wait till the otm short leg expires to get max value on it. If the short leg credited more I might persuade myself to buy back earlier for a little less than full value - that would allow me to get into another short leg earlier and extend the process for better return. Often If I have a long leg 2-3 months out I will sell against it on weeklies 3-4 times before the long leg expires....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-06-11_iwmspread.png Size: 26 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,925
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:15am Jun 11, 2014 11:15am
I wanna see the ^TNX downtrend reverse on a weak auction. We'll see in an hour....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-06-11_10yr.png Size: 39 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,926
  • Edited 11:35am Jun 11, 2014 11:20am | Edited 11:35am
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...ZWFyY2giOiIifQ==

I think the Cantor primary defeat could precipitate the typical summer slump in US equities that is seen in midterm election years. The oligarchs who own Wall Street are scared to death of the Tea Party radical arm of the Republican Party....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,927
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:34am Jun 11, 2014 11:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... I'm in just one IWM spread, below...
So it is credit call calendar spread? Similar to bear call spread? I have traded just plain long puts or calls and buying/selling vertical spreads on my option trading acc. so far (and naked selling on paper trading account)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,928
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:50am Jun 11, 2014 11:50am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} So it is credit call calendar spread? Similar to bear call spread? I have traded just plain long puts or calls and buying/selling vertical spreads on my option trading acc. so far (and naked selling on paper trading account)
that IWM spread is a debit calendar spread. As I noted, I am bullish IWM, I just don't think it will move up so fast that the $120 calls will be itm by 6/20. The worst thing that could happen for that spread would be IWM shoots up past $120 before 6/21 and I have to buy/cover - but my loss there is limited by the spread. And I have time (til 7/19) to spread further and maybe still do well. I still think IWM will drift up, but my conviction may be weakened by ongoing developments...

I have found that if I trade spreads and give myself plenty of time to work I can usually get out of most trades with, at worst, small losses. And I usually try to leave myself open on the upside, as in the IWM spread above. Doesn't always work, but that's trading. The job is to make money while managing risk. I still consider myself a novice at it, but I am making money, and I have been doing that more consistently the more I have abandoned unidirectional trades, although I will still do the latter if I really think the risk is worth it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,929
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:10pm Jun 11, 2014 12:10pm
The Fool,

Thanks for your reply. I got confused with that column -10 and 10... So actually you are long 120 calls and short 121 calls?
Is that from your trading platform? I am using IB.
I have a lot to learn, as I said previously... only plain strategies traded so far, and yes some long straddles and strangles, that was my first live trades in a world of option trading.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,930
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:24pm Jun 11, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting StrayDog
The Fool, Thanks for your reply. I got confused with that column -10 and 10... So actually you are long 120 calls and short 121 calls? Is that from your trading platform? I am using IB. I have a lot to learn, as I said previously... only plain strategies traded so far, and yes some long straddles and strangles, that was my first live trades in a world of option trading.
Nope, I am short the 120's and long the 121's. Yup that's right out of the E**ade web-based order book. It's an IRA account and I can't sell naked calls anyway from the IRA, so I am always looking to spread on call-based trades, either for an initial debit or an outright initial credit. That's a small account and the max risk on that trade is maybe 2% of the account total...

I have an IB account too and I am still working on getting up and running on it, trying to get multicharts set up with it the way I like. Often I just do research with multicharts on other datafeeds and do the trades on the simplest web-based platforms in several different accounts, which I can do from work without loading any software on the work pc's....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,931
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:36pm Jun 11, 2014 12:36pm
Ah... I just put those calls at IB option trader... Debit diagonal spread...

I just got used to plain verticals and simple rule - if u are buying lower strike and selling higher, that is bullish, otherwise is bearish...

Thanks for your explanations.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,932
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:44pm Jun 11, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting StrayDog
Ah... I just put those calls at IB option trader... Debit diagonal spread... I just got used to plain verticals and simple rule - if u are buying lower strike and selling higher, that is bullish, otherwise is bearish... Thanks for your explanations.
I don't get too bogged down in the "bullish/bearish" thing...

10y note auction was not that bad, ^TNX just nudged up 1 bps, but TLT has dipped about $0.25, which is what I'm looking for, along with TBT moving up...we'll see if those hold and will watch the 30yr bond auction tomorrow. I'm still leaning short Treasurys, looking for a good break....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,933
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:49pm Jun 11, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} in at 41c or $41 per contract VXX Jun 2014 30.500 call (VXX140613C00030500) -OPR 0.41 {image} 0.08(16.33%) 14:48
I close out the above trade for 64c or $64 per contract earlier was expecting much more but it just hasn't move much, only a little profit
  • #3,934
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:26pm Jun 11, 2014 1:26pm
Quoting StrayDog
... I am considering long puts on IWM, as it looks the weakest of US indices. Maybe $116 for Fridays expiration if it tryes to fill the gap on the open. Edit > In $116 @ 0.68
Closed the above IWM puts @ 0.90
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,935
  • Jun 11, 2014 3:01pm Jun 11, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Thanks for posting, challenger78. re USD/MXN - have you traded it much? Summer/Fall of 2013 was interesting, it seems. I haven't looked, and I will, but I expect the peso correlates pretty well with oil? Or do you know of any (liquid) correlated instruments one might use to hedge spot USD/MXN trades? Hope you will feel free to post anytime. {image}
Thanks TF. To be honest I don't have any experience on MXN, nor a strong conviction to trade it, it was just an idea for research based on reading about the unexpected rate decision and looking at the chart the pair seems oversold plus this will hurt the mexican exports so I expect them to do something about it. And it broke that downward trendline on daily, though right now seems possible to pull down to 12.95, and 12.97 seems key level of S/R too (currently trading at 13.01). Not sure about the Oil influence, good point though.

The stocks started the correction today as expected, low earnings by Lufthansa in Germany dragged the DAX down, coupled with the global growth warning and few other lower earnings expectations announced by other companies. It could continue for a few more days before the inevitable uptrend resumes.

All the best,
Good luck
  • #3,936
  • Jun 11, 2014 7:47pm Jun 11, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting challenger78
{quote}The stocks started the correction today as expected, low
OK. Time will tell. I think the mid-term election effect may be something to watch out for for more than a few days, but maybe not.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,937
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:53pm Jun 11, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} 10y note auction was not that bad, ^TNX just nudged up 1 bps, but TLT has dipped about $0.25, which is what I'm looking for, along with TBT moving up...we'll see if those hold and will watch the 30yr bond auction tomorrow. I'm still leaning short Treasurys, looking for a good break....
After it all said & done TLT/TBT finished flat on the day. A TLT break below $110 this week will make me smile....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,938
  • Jun 12, 2014 9:44am Jun 12, 2014 9:44am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think i may of missed the boat on haliburton, it closed at $67.11 yesterday with a high of $67.35, the market is already down in pre market so haliburton may gap down. If for some reason it doesn't and its around $67 or just under then I will long puts for Fridays expiration, prob $66.50 for 20c or under
Ok I'm in Haliburton , long $67.50 puts for tomorrows expiration, I have longed for 20c or $20 per contract crude has had a pop and haliburton has also moved higher than I anticipated so I'm looking for a pull back, current real time price for HAL is $67.59 but I have been in since $67.76

Halliburton Company (HAL)
-NYSE
67.59 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.65(0.97%) 15:42 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

HAL Jun 2014 67.500 put (HAL140613P00067500)
-OPR
0.20 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.73(78.49%) 15:15
  • #3,939
  • Jun 12, 2014 11:08am Jun 12, 2014 11:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Ok I'm in Haliburton , long $67.50 puts for tomorrows expiration, I have longed for 20c or $20 per contract crude has had a pop and haliburton has also moved higher than I anticipated so I'm looking for a pull back, current real time price for HAL is $67.59 but I have been in since $67.76 Halliburton Company (HAL) -NYSE 67.59 {image} 0.65(0.97%) 15:42 - Nasdaq Real Time Price HAL Jun 2014 67.500 put (HAL140613P00067500) -OPR 0.20 {image} 0.73(78.49%) 15:15
With all the hot news out of the middle east I'd expect Brent is going up and mideast oilpatch stocks along with it....good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,940
  • Jun 12, 2014 12:22pm Jun 12, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} With all the hot news out of the middle east I'd expect Brent is going up and mideast oilpatch stocks along with it....good luck.
yes you are right but that jump in oil was too fast without knowing for sure how much disruption the trouble in iraq will cause to oil production and transportation

HAL is down to $67.24 and the option is up to 43c, i may close it soon if I can get near 50 plus

HAL Jun 2014 67.500 put (HAL140613P00067500)
-OPR
0.43 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.50(53.76%) 18:03
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