AUD/USD

No matter what the news says they will always use it against you and keep you guessing what it means when it really doesn't mean a thing.

smart money still taking your stop loss orders on swing highs

They are still not doing anything to me.

After trading for a decade you cant tell dumb from smart, better said as Fast and Slow money.
With so many HFT rigs lacing what was once a human inhabited trading floor brushed up against t.v. and radio news desks.
its a tough business to maintain Day Trading that is not so much as it once was.

i like to go against the grain...

I think much of the comments you hear on this site are only relevant to the style of trading an individual does, for instance a short term trader can trade against a long term trend and make money doing it so when they make a comment their comment about direction is different to the long term trader's view on the market.

@ Neal

I am seeing the same thing but probably from different reasons

push it to 1:1:

China add more stimulus and allow more financing iron activities

Gov budget get some modification

push it to 0.8x:

Do opposite to above.

But keep in mind, when RMB and EURO keeping stimulus, Yen have to do similar thing and USD may not lift up interest rate.

AUD, NZD become targets of carry trade.

Follow the trend, change mind quickly.

anyone start shorting Aussie ?

Check here http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php

That's the most accurate with Trade Explorer

Yen is the muscle in the house imo. It has been gaining relentlessly the last two days and it seems likes it may have another day today (so far). I'm not putting my fingers beneath this falling carving knife, Aussie just lapping it up. There may be a Yen bounce at resistance (registered on a few pairs) but the way this is moving it may break out for an even stronger move. Just my personal point of view.

Just to make my point: put a EU and an AU chart side by side. These two charts are often correlated in the same direction. Now have a look at the EJ chart.

-))) if I am right about Unemployment then today USA session should start shorting AUD in advance.

I guess too many people turned bearish on AU and now it's gonna go higher.

Aud/usd sellers tipped between .9385/.9400. Resistance .9410/25

.9385 at session highs as Eur/Aud selling supports.

Above are figures from futures contracts.

Note the expiry of front month 6AM4. IS within week next front month roll is September contract 6AU4 and its roughly 60 tics lower @.9320

Au is moving of material to consumption also the favorable interest rate is driving AU too..
But we are going to get a pull back for everyone to get loaded up on aud pair's..

It will spike up above 94xx in short term..

so be patient

Oyeah i'm forgot..

I'm have a plan set limit short in red zone..

Yen maybe coming to a stand still, may be time to short it. xxxusd starting to move up too.

My view 0.91 by the end of month.

A stubbornly high Australian dollar, falling commodity prices and a hard-hitting federal budget are expected to weigh on company earnings in coming months, Deutsche Bank predicts.
Australia's GDP growth for the March quarter was better than expected, but Deutsche has forecast that earnings will soften as autumn turns to winter. It has begun ditching assets traditionally considered risky, such as mining, from its portfolio.
Deutsche's prediction comes as Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists cautioned that earnings forecasts for the 2015 financial year were ''too optimistic'', labelling retail and contractors as stocks in ''challenging industries''.
Deutsche analyst Tim Baker said the business conditions had changed since the March quarter.
''Perhaps the most important point to make on the GDP numbers is that the March quarter was some time ago, and conditions have softened since,'' Mr Baker said in a note to investors.
''Commodity prices have slid, the AUD has provided no relief, and the fall in resource capex is ramping up. Further, the Budget has hit sentiment, and retail spending is already rolling over.
''Adding it all together, our profit pulse has fallen and points to softening earnings. Recent earnings momentum has been good (few downgrades to market FY14F earnings, positive trading updates), so a weakening going into August results could hurt market sentiment.''
Mr Baker said two weeks ago Deutsche began cutting risk from its portfolio. As well as shifting miners to an underweight rating, the big banks were also among its least preferred stocks.
Despite a ''reasonable earnings outlook'', Mr Baker said the banks were fully priced and had a relative high price to earnings ratio compared to both their own history and the rest of the market.
''Banks comprise 31 per cent of the Australian market cap, a record high. Credit growth should remain reasonable (mid-single digit), but not strong as in the past.
''While housing is picking up, we expect a construction cycle without a leverage cycle, and the latter matters more for credit. Bad debts are already fairly low, and seem unlikely to fall much further.''
Mr Baker was also concerned about food retailers, saying for Wesfarmers Coles' outperformance was easing, while Woolworths' introduction of its home improvement business Masters was not as successful as hoped.
''Earnings growth is reasonable (about 7 per cent), but less than in the past, yet valuations are quite high (price-earnings at 18 times).
''Food price deflation has eased, but remains a drag relative to history. [Meanwhile] Discount department stores mostly continue to struggle.''
Telecommunications was also out of favour. Mr Baker said the sector had limited earnings growth with market share losses possible ''due to increasing competition and uncertainty'' around the NBN.
Mr Baker said the Federal Budget was one of the main drivers of softer June and September quarters, considering sharp falls in consumer sentiment in recent weeks.
''The breadth of the sentiment fall across the income scale, home-owner status and educational level is a concern.
''It's likely that Budget measures will be scaled back in time to gain passage through the Senate, and households should also become accustomed to the proposals. But in coming months we are concerned the sentiment hit will weigh.''
Although the Australian dollar remains high, Mr Baker said equity markets should have some respite by the end of 2015, with Deutsche's foreign exchange strategist forecasting the Aussie to ease to US 85 cents.
''The key driver of the AUD in the past year has been US bond yields, which now look to have bottomed.
''Weaker US growth and moves in investor positioning have weighed on yields, but data this week suggests this is passing. The US data surprise index has risen closer to neutral, and long positioning looks to have peaked.
''On the domestic front, [foreign direct investment] inflows are coming off a little, as resource projects roll off, giving less support to the AUD.''
Deutsche has maintained its housing exposure given work in the pipeline, and also energy as liquefied natural gas projects come on-line. Among defensive stocks, the investment bank is overweight general insurers, real estate investment trusts, utilities and healthcare.