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  • #261
  • Jun 9, 2014 10:45pm Jun 9, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Adal
Skenobi, can you give some market moving examples? For example Oanda is on record saying that a 250 mil order on EUR/USD will move it around 50 pips (of course, depends on time of day), and the chief FX dealer of an Australian bank told about a 800 mil AUD/USD order that he executed (gradually, of course) and which moved the market 200 pips. Because a lot of retail believe that a 250 mil order will have under 2 pips effect on EUR/USD. Any such examples?
1. Oanda is a retail broker. NOT an interdealer broker. 'Nuff said.
2. ONE Australian bank gave ONE example of a trade. My question: so what?
3. You can't point to just any deal and say THAT deal will move X number of pips. Even a 25 mio order can move spot 10-20 pips if liquidity is low enough or if there are no limit orders standing in its way.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #262
  • Jun 9, 2014 10:50pm Jun 9, 2014 10:50pm
Quoting skenobi
{quote} 1. Oanda is a retail broker. NOT an interdealer broker. 'Nuff said. 2. ONE Australian bank gave ONE example of a trade. My question: so what? 3. You can't point to just any deal and say THAT deal will move X number of pips. Even a 25 mio order can move spot 10-20 pips if liquidity is low enough or if there are no limit orders standing in its way.
Oanda was talking about the general market, not about their platform.

Anyway, I was curious if you could give some examples of market moving trades that you had executed, so that we can have an idea of the general impact. Because there are some general impact sizes. Like you can be pretty sure than 1 mio will not move the market in general at all, you can also be pretty sure that 100 mio will definitely move it.

But I understand if you don't want to share that.
  • #263
  • Jun 9, 2014 11:13pm Jun 9, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting Adal
{quote} Oanda was talking about the general market, not about their platform.
I know that's what you meant. They're still not qualified to comment with conviction that X will move Y. Markets are not as black and white as that.

Quoting Adal
Anyway, I was curious if you could give some examples of market moving trades that you had executed, so that we can have an idea of the general impact. Because there are some general impact sizes.
In my career, I have done thousands of trades if not more, and participated in hundreds of market movers. All of varying impacts. There is no such thing as "general impact sizes". Let me say it again: There is no rule that says X mio trades will move Y number of pips i.e. you can't point to that 100 pip move and confidently say X mio trades moved that. No one can say that. Not Oanda. Not that Australian Bank. And certainly not me.

Quoting Adal
Like you can be pretty sure than 1 mio will not move the market in general at all, you can also be pretty sure that 100 mio will definitely move it.
You'll be surprised at what 1 mio can move if the market knew who was behind that 1 mio and/or given that the market is illiquid. And you'll be surprised at how little 100 mio can move if the market is seeing enough two-way interest.

Quoting Adal
But I understand if you don't want to share that.
My old trading blotters are hundreds of pages long. We don't have all day to wait for me to search thru records.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #264
  • Jun 10, 2014 3:37am Jun 10, 2014 3:37am
Quoting reddevil
Do institutional traders trade in the futures market or are they mainly in the spot? I always wondered the futures vs spot trading by large traders and what are the advantages of one vs the other. Th COT reports mentioned large speculators which I presume are institutional traders.
We never used FX Futures too limiting as Skenobi said. AndI would say the big speculators are NOT institutions
  • #265
  • Jun 10, 2014 3:42am Jun 10, 2014 3:42am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} let put it this way, If my trade able allow limit is 5 lot at a time. what will be my first order lot weather it will be 0.25, 0.5 lot , 1 lot. 2 lot. or 2.5 lot. or all 5 lots.
Ok I see what you mean, you want to add to winning positions and if it doesn't go your way you only have a small position? That is something I do sometimes when I'm not sure (lack of conviction) of the trade. If that works for you then keep doing it. It also depends how many pips you are up before you add to it. Adding to a winner is great up until the point where you ruin your average entry price. I either do my full position or I'll do half and then the other half if I'm up on the trade.
  • #266
  • Jun 10, 2014 5:24am Jun 10, 2014 5:24am
i dont post very much but i would just like to say thank you to skenobi and jacobfordfx for sharing your knowledge one of the best reads ive had on here for a while

regards damien
  • #267
  • Jun 10, 2014 5:45am Jun 10, 2014 5:45am
Who is behind of this move? 20 pip drop on 15 sec? WTF? I dont think, this move happened cause of "liquidity thin" on the early London session.. Appreciate thoughts of pros..
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  • #268
  • Jun 10, 2014 5:47am Jun 10, 2014 5:47am
Quoting Naokia980
Who is behind of this move? 20 pip drop on 15 sec? WTF? I dont think, this move happened cause of "liquidity thin" on the early London session.. Appreciate thoughts of pros..
which pair?

damien
  • #269
  • Jun 10, 2014 5:48am Jun 10, 2014 5:48am
Quoting Naokia980
Who is behind of this move? 20 pip drop on 15 sec? WTF? I dont think, this move happened cause of "liquidity thin" on the early London session.. Appreciate thoughts of pros..
Which currency pair are you talking about?
  • #270
  • Jun 10, 2014 6:04am Jun 10, 2014 6:04am
Oh I see GbpUsd. I got up early to watch the econ releases. This is my take for what it's worth. The numbers were better than expected so I would imagine a lot of traders (retail and institutional) went long looking for momentum in that direction. But it only went up about 10 pips post-release and got stuck there. Some long's sold-out which probably caused other long's to get out. Then you see some short-sellers who think that if the GbpUsd can't rally on better than expected numbers then I'll take a shot on the short side. That adds to the selling pressure and as you get closer to the days lows I'm sure some Gbp dealers will look at there order book and see if they can run some stops since the market is heavy in the first place.

That's one possible scenario
  • #271
  • Jun 10, 2014 7:41am Jun 10, 2014 7:41am
Wow, take a look at this: 13.22 GMT - 13.24 GMT Gold 60 pip move right off the bat

https://charts.mql5.com/4/935/xauusd...kforex-com.png

Now you have to wonder...did anyone else knew it besides the one executing it
  • #272
  • Jun 10, 2014 7:45am Jun 10, 2014 7:45am
Quoting merquise
Wow, take a look at this: 13.22 GMT - 13.24 GMT Gold 60 pip move right off the bat {image} Now you have to wonder...did anyone else knew it besides the one executing it
suspected it...
Quoting usernamehere
looks like stops are ready to be taken, above 1258.00, larger above 1260.50. Light orderflow at this time. {image}
  • #273
  • Jun 10, 2014 7:49am Jun 10, 2014 7:49am
How, wha'? how did you came up to that conclusion..just by seeing the price on 1 min chart hovering there at the R1 pivot or something else?
  • #274
  • Jun 10, 2014 8:57am Jun 10, 2014 8:57am
Quoting skenobi
{quote} 1. Oanda is a retail broker. NOT an interdealer broker. 'Nuff said. 2. ONE Australian bank gave ONE example of a trade. My question: so what? 3. You can't point to just any deal and say THAT deal will move X number of pips. Even a 25 mio order can move spot 10-20 pips if liquidity is low enough or if there are no limit orders standing in its way.

Adal, your question in a way relates to mines...however i think what skenobi has said is reasonable in that generally the market is a tug of war. When there are not many participants in the market(illiquid), anyone with 1 mio can move the market x amount of pips. But when there are heavy hands in the market, even 10 million will have a hard time moving market by even 1 pip. So really pip movement is subjective to market liquidity. In this view i can understand why there can be no such thing as "general impact sizes". Thanks Skenobi and Jacob for you insights.
  • #275
  • Jun 10, 2014 9:01am Jun 10, 2014 9:01am
Quoting merquise
Wow, take a look at this: 13.22 GMT - 13.24 GMT Gold 60 pip move right off the bat {image} Now you have to wonder...did anyone else knew it besides the one executing it
NY open + triangle breakout+European demand + Ultra-low yields in the core and negative deposit rates make gold a more-attractive trade... You cant teach new tricks to old dogs..
  • #276
  • Jun 10, 2014 9:09am Jun 10, 2014 9:09am
A logical conclusion...never thought of it that way
  • #277
  • Jun 10, 2014 10:46am Jun 10, 2014 10:46am
can some one explain these charts first one is my broker feed.

second one is sum of different feeds (clime to be inter bank feed).
especially spike in second chart it is not from only one source it is consist of multi feeds. the quotes are shown in this order it was to day when euro was at 1.3580-90 area.
1.3580/82 1.3582/82 1.3580/84 1.3584/86 1.3586/86 1.3580/90 1.3584/87 1.3584/84 1.3588/88 1.3584/90 etc

I see interesting things in it. though my broker feed not showing. it is near to inter bank way of trading


https://charts.mql5.com/4/937/eurusd...g-point-of.png
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #278
  • Jun 10, 2014 11:08am Jun 10, 2014 11:08am
this is 5M chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic11w.GIF Size: 33 KB
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #279
  • Jun 10, 2014 8:05pm Jun 10, 2014 8:05pm
hi skenobi and jacob,

as a dealer with an institution, do you hedge at times with interest rate products? ie roll-over or any other term?

Just never figured out how this was done.

ie short 200mio in audusd at end of day, cant get rid as price is against, what do you do?
  • #280
  • Jun 10, 2014 8:20pm Jun 10, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting maxpay
hi skenobi and jacob, as a dealer with an institution, do you hedge at times with interest rate products? ie roll-over or any other term? Just never figured out how this was done. ie short 200mio in audusd at end of day, cant get rid as price is against, what do you do?
All spot trades are for "value spot" i.e. deliverable 2 days from today (in most cases, except for USDCAD which is 1 day from today).

So if I'm short AUDUSD today (Day 0), it means I have to physically (or electronically) deliver Aussie and take delivery of USD 2 business days from now (Day 2).

If for whatever reason I square my short the following day (Day 1), it means I would have bought AUDUSD (to square my short) for value Day 3 (i.e. I will be physically long Aussie on Day 3).

On Day 1, I find that I'm going to be actually short AUD (and long USD) on Day 2 and long AUD (and short USD) on Day3. To avoid having to borrow AUD (and lend USD) for value Day2-to-Day3 (1 day) in the money market, I just do what's called a "tom next" swap (which is effectively the same thing)

"tom next swap": I Buy/Sell AUDUSD for value Day 2 to Day 3 i.e. I buy AUDUSD for value tomorrow (Day 2 because today is Day 1), and sell it back for val Day3.

The delivery mismatches are even-ed out; all the interest differentials from the underlying borrowing/lending factored in the FX swap rates; P/L is booked; and everybody's happy.

If you still don't get it, too bad. Look up "FX swaps" in wikipedia or something.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
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