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NZD/USD

  • #5,541
  • Jun 9, 2014 6:59pm Jun 9, 2014 6:59pm
Quoting skyhok
Sold at the top of this corrective decline. {image}
Hi friend , i wanna discuses about the wave "a" , as you are motioned is a corrective wave ? i am not sure that it's a corrective one , but in my count i had count it as C of running flat into the 4 wave ? hope we can found the real counting
  • #5,542
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:25pm Jun 9, 2014 7:25pm
Quoting WaylDz
{quote} Hi friend , i wanna discuses about the wave "a" , as you are motioned is a corrective wave ? i am not sure that it's a corrective one , but in my count i had count it as C of running flat into the 4 wave ? hope we can found the real counting
Hi, good to hear from you.
Looking back in longer time frame, an Ending Diagonal completed at 0.8777 on 6May14. Now the impulse wave down confirming the completion of ED and retracing it in short time.
Considering wave ii is sharp and simple, therefore expecting a complex wave iv. While wave a of iv already retraced 50% of wave iii, within the travel of (iv), so the only way is down on corrective decline of wave b, most probably in a running correction.
Reply to your GBPUSD in a few minutes.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #5,543
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:34pm Jun 9, 2014 7:34pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Hi, good to hear from you. Looking back in longer time frame, an Ending Diagonal completed at 0.8777 on 6May14. Now the impulse wave down confirming the completion of ED and retracing it in short time. Considering wave ii is sharp and simple, therefore expecting a complex wave iv. While wave a of iv already retraced 50% of wave iii, within the travel of (iv), so the only way is down on corrective decline of wave b, most probably in a running correction. Reply to your GBPUSD in a few minutes.
mm the scenario of yours is good , but i wanna you count the wave a as corrective one , because i am quite sure that it doesn't , and for information the exchange between the 2 & 4 wave in their length it just a guideline which mean it not obligated to happen always
  • #5,544
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:50pm Jun 9, 2014 7:50pm
Quoting WaylDz
{quote} mm the scenario of yours is good , but i wanna you count the wave a as corrective one , because i am quite sure that it doesn't , and for information the exchange between the 2 & 4 wave in their length it just a guideline which mean it not obligated to happen always
You could be right. Wave a is in 3 waves. Either way I think the price action is moving down.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #5,545
  • Jun 9, 2014 9:03pm Jun 9, 2014 9:03pm
NZD just chasing yield following AUD buying up my kiwi's
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #5,546
  • Jun 10, 2014 12:36am Jun 10, 2014 12:36am
Quoting WaylDz
Who agree with thatt scenario ? {image}

i absolutely agree..good work!
  • #5,547
  • Jun 10, 2014 1:26am Jun 10, 2014 1:26am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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can't be a short time any more.
try to long kiwi with a sl @8470.
patient to see where the market would lead me to.
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #5,548
  • Jun 10, 2014 1:48am Jun 10, 2014 1:48am
when PBOC and EURO printing more cash, NZD may test 0.86+ area .
  • #5,549
  • Jun 10, 2014 3:12am Jun 10, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Mr Mao
{image} can't be a short time any more. try to long kiwi with a sl @8470. patient to see where the market would lead me to.
The resistance is still valid, the neck line was only tested, not broken. Clearly now we are seeing now short range consolidation between 0.848x and 0.853x. Probably we will see more directional clues after Thursday.
  • #5,550
  • Jun 10, 2014 4:27am Jun 10, 2014 4:27am
Quoting Haqu
{quote} The resistance is still valid, the neck line was only tested, not broken. Clearly now we are seeing now short range consolidation between 0.848x and 0.853x. Probably we will see more directional clues after Thursday.
Exactly the range I see and RBNZ decision on Thursday, would trigger the next move in either direction.

After hiking the benchmark rates by 0.50% during the current year, the central bank is expected to pause that could force the pair to break on the downside.
  • #5,551
  • Jun 10, 2014 6:31am Jun 10, 2014 6:31am
Sustained breakout of descending trend line is likely to fuel the NU ahead of RBNZ decision, on Thursday. However, 0.8545 and 0.8600 can become strong resistance for the pair before it can rally towards 0.8700. On the downside, 0.8490 and 0.8430 can be important supports.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 36 KB
  • #5,552
  • Jun 10, 2014 7:29pm Jun 10, 2014 7:29pm
Quoting HareshBM
{quote} Exactly the range I see and RBNZ decision on Thursday, would trigger the next move in either direction. After hiking the benchmark rates by 0.50% during the current year, the central bank is expected to pause that could force the pair to break on the downside.
market expecting rate to go to 3.25 particularly when chinese remnembi is getting stronger which means nzd will experience inflationary pressure to the upside
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #5,553
  • Jun 10, 2014 11:20pm Jun 10, 2014 11:20pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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it may happen like this,
strong incentive for me to hold on my long position opened yesterday.
with a 50% fibo retracement in the past weeks,
the appeal of the high roll-over currency is obvious.

the only uncertain factor is when the real estate bubble in China will burst,
that should really be a killer to the chinese economy, Aus and NZ as well.
but now i haven't seen that threat at all.

i also believe NZD will pull back to 0.8000 or even below someday ,of course short term trader as me do not care.
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #5,554
  • Jun 10, 2014 11:54pm Jun 10, 2014 11:54pm
Quoting Davit
short NU 8549 2x Despite of overzealous projections NZ can't afford currency above 85 fundamentally specially that dairy prices are low. It may spike up but you can be sure almost 100% it wont stay there long. Even with .25 increase (I doubt) I suspect its already priced in like last time.
I also loaded up heavily at 8549 not saying up any longer and AU is over priced as well.
  • #5,555
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:43am Jun 11, 2014 12:43am
NZDUSD signaling its march towards 0.8580 and 0.8600 (Crucial level), breaking which it can rally to 0.8650 and 0.8700.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 35 KB
  • #5,556
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:44am Jun 11, 2014 12:44am
Quoting Davit
short NU 8549 2x Despite of overzealous projections NZ can't afford currency above 85 fundamentally specially that dairy prices are low. It may spike up but you can be sure almost 100% it wont stay there long. Even with .25 increase (I doubt) I suspect its already priced in like last time.
but what if milk price go up again? what if more money from EU and JP playing carry trade?

Can nz afford 0.89? no... Can nzd reach 0.89? yes, it could.

When EU follow japan and us printing more and more cash, don't mention another big guy China who released more liquidity several days ago.

To short NZD and AUD should be very careful.
  • #5,557
  • Jun 11, 2014 2:20am Jun 11, 2014 2:20am
hoping it is a double top
  • #5,558
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:13am Jun 11, 2014 9:13am
Put on size shorts at 0.8548, SL at 0.8570.

Still have AUDNZD longs from 1.0930.

Looking for somewhat dovish RBNZ
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  • #5,559
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:30am Jun 11, 2014 10:30am
Quoting Citiboy
Put on size shorts at 0.8548, SL at 0.8570. Still have AUDNZD longs from 1.0930. Looking for somewhat dovish RBNZ
All eyes will be on the 5:00 PM RBNZ announcement. Thinking of putting in a Long. You think RBNZ will be dovish?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #5,560
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:08pm Jun 11, 2014 12:08pm
I bet NZD will be dovish.


He will comment " NZD IS high " and there will be no rate hike this time.

Expect 100 pips downward. my Target is last week low. Around 0.84
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