Trading is as simple as ABCD

Well thats the Franfurt and London open done and I had a +4.9-5.3 = -0.4%

Wow!! Great improvement form last 2 weeks so writing all my plan out really helped. Thanks Mr V. great advice.

So what can I learn from this morning??

Well a couple of things

1) I had one great entry and one just a little too keen to get in, so need to do a bit of work on my entry still.

2) I did really well identifying the right ABCD's to trade as both have since gone in my direction. So happy with identifying quality ABCD's.

3) Got shaken out a little early on both trades so need to look at trade management once I'm in a trade.

4) Only trading strong trending pairs is a key element of this strategy and so need to find a way to quantify trend strength as crucial to whole strategy. I liked the depth of pullback as a measure as helped today and when I identify a weak trend just take the first momentum push and then just try again if trend holds. eg if more qualifying ABCD moves develop.

5) I was closely monitoring the 5 min and 1 min top trenders to see which I should use as the base trend then refer to the other. I tried both ways and found today its best to take the 1 min initially looking at the top 4 trenders in the 1 min. Then have a look at the chart to see if a tradable ABCD move is setting up?? If so then trade it and get to BE asap. Then look at 5 min and if its there too then trade the 1 min trend based around the 1 min structure and price action.
If it doesn't appear in 5 min then just grab the initial momentum especially if the BC move is more than 50%.
guess what I am saying at the moment is see what I can catch, then once I've caught it and safely at BE have a look to see what I've caught. EG look at higher timeframes to see whoose in my team? Am i running with 1 min alone, 5 min 15 min 1hr or daily trend, then decide whether to hold or fold??

Biggest lesson I learnt today? Write out your plan with specific details then trade your plan, glad to say I feel I did that today. Once again thanks to Mr V.

Overall very, very pleased with todays trading as not the best London open as Frankfurt on holiday today, don't think anything moved more than 30 to 40 pips in my "London rush hour" and as I need about 25 for a good A to B move before I even look at a chart, that's not too bad.

Anyway so far so good gotta go to work for a couple of hours but will try and get back for New York open if I can.

Seez you all later.

Hi Clive

Just got in now and not looked at any charts at all this morning. Will read asap and comment. PS I am pretty sure I would have been seriously interested in euraud sell this morning.

PS if you hadn't gathered yet I am very optimistic about where this is going, or should I say where I hope its going.

Taking your post and extracting the comments to get an abbreviated trade rules list, as follows (please correct me if I'm wrong):

- Pair top (or close to) of 1 min trenders, strength meter agreeing, always look to trade top 3 against bottom 3 and nothing in between.
- The separation of the 2 mas
- 15 min CCI over the -100 level for sells, +100 for buys (I will still have as -100 or +100 cci 210 reached as the retrace to form the abc might see this level move into the middle between +100 and -100)
- Each pullback should come back to a good level for us to slip our 10 pip stop behind. These levels are 25, 50 75, 00, a previous S or R level 1 min, the 100 sma, daily pivots, yesterdays high, low or close.
- The 14 CCI must go over the +100 level to qualify as a pullback for sells and below the -100 as a pullback for buys
- The entry is after the 1 min CCI has turned over then the next HA candle that changes colour back to red for sells, green for buys is our signal candle put a pending order above/below it We might simplify this by just saying hit it with market order when CCI crosses zero line. However I prefer the pending order gets me in very deep into the pullback. (There might be a problem with pending orders as this might be too close to current price but this will be per platform requirements)
- Place stop 10 pips back and be ready to close out if a opposite colour HA candle appears, thats your signal candle to close if its high is taken out. 1
- Move stop to BE asap for me thats 3 pips, if its gonna go its gonna go, trust me, get your risk off table asap. Get ready to close out if price wavers especially as it approaches point B, if its gonna break it and continue with the trend, then price should just blast straight through, if you see a couple of attempts fail then close out for whatever you've got, its not playing ball today. Any faltering or taking a couple of steps back just grab your doe and wait for the next setup.
- If it breaks through and carries on hold and try to add on qualifying ABCD moves using entry procedure as above.
- Trail all trades down each lower high until stopped out or as an alternative close out when 15 min CCI turns back up over the -100 level.

Once we are happy that we are looking at a strong trending pair, then and only then, do we look for our perfect ABCD move to trade. The perfect ABCD move is: Very clean push down clear of the last low, the HA candles should be all red or at least 75% red. A very clean pullback again all green is best but at least 75% green. 1 min CCI momentum over +100 and moving lower, this is absolutely crucial to see before we should even contemplate taking an entry. Price should be heading towards one of our recognized levels as per point 5 above. Notice I said heading towards do NOT enter just because it hits it wait for confirmation that its an active level. Wait for momentum, our 1 min CCI, to show signs of turning before taking any action. Here we are just qualifying the ABCD move as to whether we trade it or not. Point C cannot exceed point A, it can be level but as soon as it goes past A the whole setup is null and void. If the ABC move is as above then we must assume it is a qualifying ABCD and we trade it as described above, just beware of rule 5 if at any time price passes point A the whole setup is null and void, move on to the next setup. Well that's about it, now i'm sure there are many guys saying "Yea right you're gonna check all that as you go???" Well the answer is yes, as thats what I've been attempting up to do up to now but only in my head.

Looks good to me.

Good afternoon Mr V.

Had an awesome couple of sessions today and learnt so much but need to make a couple of amendments to the trade plan. I took 3 entries today and if I had held would have 3 winners on my account maybe still running. Not at home so no idea how they would be doing now, but unfortunately closed out due to HA candle changes so need to amend plan accordingly..

I tried using 5 min as master today, but its not for me far too slow plus by the time the pair came to top of 5 min it had moved a long way already. I will be trading 1 min top 4 trenders and trading qualifying ABCD moves as previous post. If they then appear on 5 min top trender will look to hold on 5 min chart.

Qualifying the ABCDs worked really well today the most important part for me was top 4 trender then look for a clean clear AB move that clearly takes out last high or low. Then look for a clean pullback cci goes over 100 level wait HA candle change as signal place pending above/below if not hit and cci turns back over 100 level delete pending order wait for next ha colour change .

Here's a big difference place stop where it technically should be, no more arbitrary 10 pips, place below pullback and even better behind some firm support/protection one of our levels as identified in previous post. Leave stop in place until price moves up to point B then goto BE. Stop can be as big as 20 pips so changing my risk from 1% per pip to 0.5% per pip to maintain same risk per entry.

Means 2 things, allows me to place it in the right technical position plus allows me more margin so I can take entries in any top 4 trenders that sets up as we never know which one will be the London breakout without having to worry about a margin call.

Once I catch something will evaluate trend strength, 5, 15 1hr momentum etc to decide whether to hold or fold at point B. However if price powers past B will hold until 1 min trend ends by trailing LH's/HL's or hold until stopped out by break of trend. No more closing out if HA candles change colour either. Only time we close out is when stop hit because trend broken so we hold on 1 min trend until it ends. "The Trend Is Our Friend until it Ends"

I have made these changes as now we are qualifying the ABCDs that we take I fully expect these levels to hold as we are trading the turns caused by the big money. Won't work every time of course but today it would of worked 100% so that will do for me.

And finally I felt really good trading today as I feel this qualifying each ABCD move is a major step forward. Guess only time and my account will tell the true story from now on.

We're getting there, slowly but surely.

Hi Mr V.
Home again now so will tidy up posts etc.

Yep I agree with everything you've said above. I think its worth mentioning as you say that the 210 CCI is there to tell us where the 15 min momentum is and as long as its going form one extreme to the other its fine eg from oversold -100plus to +100 plus then it indicates the 15 min momentum is swinging from one direction to the other which is the direction we are looking to trade. Probably best to keep it simple though and say as long as 15 min CCI (210) is above zero we can look to take qualifying ABCD moves on the 1 min in that direction. (See chart below for example)

I don't want to make this a MA crossover system but I do like it when the MA's crossover and the price breaks and retest the 100sma (blue ma) that is one of my all time favourite entries, whenever I see that I get very excited about taking the entry especially if its proceeded by a clean AB leg and the pullback to the 100sma just falls down to it, that's a great entry because if Fred and Gladys are there you get a great move off of 100sma touches. Also very often they are the start of a trend reversal so present us with a great entry opportunity very early in the new trend. (see chart below for examples)

Like you say sometimes the 1 min pullback if deep enough might drop the 15 min CCI below +100 level but its ok to trade as long as C doesn't go lower than A, That is the main point I think soon as C goes beyond A thats it, game over, ABCD is void. By definition that has become a downward moving ABCD.

It wasn't a big moving day in any shape or form but there was a nice move on GBPCHF that's worth a look at to see if we could of caught it today with our new system. It came to top of 1 min trenders today and would of been a great pair to trade.

This brings up the point of which pair is going to be the "Breakout Trade" of the session??? Hopefully it will generally be one of the ones in top trenders just after the market opens, within first 2 hours I would say. This maybe where the 5 min top trenders table comes into play, if one of the trades we are holding goes top of 5 min trenders then hold and load every qualifying ABCD move??

Anyway lets have a look at GBPCHF today as it was the biggest mover I believe and see how it shaped up?? I always like to look at winning trade setups I've missed as helps to lock into my memory just what we are looking for tomorrow. Please note the chart below.



There are several really good 100sma entries here and whenever price pulls back to one of our key levels be ready to take our entry if signal candle sets up near the level eg signal candle is first HA candle change of colour back with trend, green in a buy like here.

There are several good examples of some of my favourite entries when we have a strong trending pair like GBPCHF this morning. The secret of a successful entry is to wait for confirmation that the price is turning back with the trend. I use the CCI momentum coming back from the -100 level then wait for a HA candle colour change, this is our signal candle then place pending order or hit a market order as CCI crosses zero line. Its best if price is pulling back towards one of our key levels as discussed earlier, but don't hit the trade as price approaches it, wait for the confirmation that price is returning back in direction of the trend,with our signal candle then enter when that signal candle gets taken out.

There are 4 examples of touch of 100sma entries here,1,4,6 & 7, these are one of Fred and Gladys's favourite places to enter but they are not always there so wait for the turn back with trend before entering. Trade 1 is a particular favourite of Fred's the first break and retest of the 100sma, very often the first sign of a reversal and therefore a great opportunity to get into the new trend as early as possible.

Trade 2 is a break and retest of an earlier resistance level at 3, again though don't anticipate the turn wait for confirmation with our signal candle then enter with pending order or market order as signal candle high taken out.

Trade 5 by the way is an interesting one as it qualifies in that there was a strong push up in front of it but it doesn't pullback to one of our key levels, so should we take it? Well I would say no wait for price to pullback to one of our key levels. But it doesn't really matter with our new rules because although price does come back past its entry,(which before today would of caused me to close it out as it printed a red HA candle), but now with our new 20 pip stop tucked in this case behind our nearest key level the 100sma we would be ok and the trade would go on to a profitable conclusion.

Well its all very well looking back at the days action I always get these trades right, every time. I have to learn how to catch these trades going forward but as I say always good to look back at a days price action and try to visualize catching these waves going forward. Well tomorrows another day so lets see how it goes tomorrow.

​Good night sweet dreams , lets see what I can catch tomoz???

interesting thread... I see you have a abc and hier low s lower highs MASTER here with you..... a 210 CCI.. ?? MMM must have a good hard look at that..maby a line CCI with a 14 and 210.. and look for sharp turns on/at C area.. mabY.. ?? just a thought

- Yes I am interested once 210 cci has gone from 1 extreme (-100 to +100 or +100 to -100) to the other for the first time and thereafter looking to trade in that direction.
- MA cross over, I don't want to make it a ma cross system either. Will it be likely that ma's cross and we look for entries thereafter, yes most likely. Haven't got that in my rules and don't expect it to feature, but who knows. I do want to be trading buy above mas below sell.
- Pullbacks to ma's might be good trades but might not qualify as abc moves as the abc might well be voided. For now my focus is on qualifying abc moves and I'll keep a watch on these ma touch trades. If you are going to dabble and stretch rules rather do it in resumption of bigger pic trend than CT. I suspect that as long as currency meter confirms might be a trade. PS I prefer my currency meter to yours.
- I like your idea of using the 14 cci to qualify pull backs eg buy set ups (so cci 210 has hit +100 even if it retraces lower) and then cci 14 should go down to -100 to qualify as a retrace

Nice one. Just about there me thinks with some more thought to the ma pull back trade as it might have broken abc flow. I have a clear picture at least on how I want to proceed.

Hi danc

Whilst there might be some more work to be done on entries before the cci 210 has moved from +100 to -100 (or the opposite) these trades where cci 210 has moved completely across range happening on virtually a daily basis, I am quite happy with what Clive developed, as I said earlier getting a very clear mental pic of what I am looking to achieve.

I did NOT trade these, just some examples of what I would have been looking at. PA below ma's, separation of ma's, cc1 210 went from +100 to -100, and cci 14 retraces to +100, entry on change of ha colour. Entries after the LO pretty clear.

My CM had eur as weakest and jpy and aud strongest (nzd also strong but I don't watch it). I would have focused on ej and ea as gu had at the time gbp and usd as roughly the same strength/weakness.

Clive I said I was very happy with where I thought this was going, looking good.

Hi Mr V.

Can I ask you then when you are qualifying an ABCD move setting up on a chart are you only going to take the ones that are with the daily trend??? Do you believe it will make for a better trade on the 1 min if its in the direction of the daily trend?? If thats the case then will you be not trading a perfect 1 min ABCD setups for that reason? If so how are you going to determine the daily trend?? From your previous nights analysis of daily charts?? Just wandering???

I'm interested to know because my thoughts are that we will get some great counter daily runs on the 1 min sometimes as much as a couple of hundred pips, so seems a shame to not trade them??

My preference is going to be take whatever sets up on the 1 min during the market opens, just follow the money as it comes to the table then once at BE have a look to see what I've caught. If it proves to be with the daily trend then bank any winners apart from the first entry and leave that to see if it can survive the inevitable Daily pullback and slowly build a position with the Daily trend. Allah Pipeasys "Building an equity millipede" but unlike Graeme I would probably only hold it on Daily HA candles until colour change, then trail stops up to bottom/top of candle and see what happens, if trend continues carry on holding if not closed out with a nice little profit hopefully.

However if I've caught a strong Daily trender , counter trend, then just bank the lot and carry on.

Well thats the plan for what its worth.

Sorry looks like we crossed over posts again there, yep love the charts I think we are of the same mind just the little queery for me when you are qualifying which ABCD set ups to trade would you turn down counter daily trend set ups??

Hi Clive

I will be looking to take the trades as described even if CT to my D view, I'll be aware of where the problem areas are from higher TF charts. If this starts biting me in the butt too often I'll be quickly aware of it from my failures review.

I won't be focusing on top 8 list as much (you'll see I have rarely mentioned that in any of my posts) as you might but will be more focused on what CM is suggesting. That I believe will be a major, major reason for keeping us out of problems. Will it work all the time, no of course not but we are not looking to shoot the lights out. I think that we will get many 3:1 RR trades with a high % win rate even if CT. Why, well if the CM is showing us the strongest v weakest that should filter a lot of problems.

Many of the aud, jpy pairs can have some big swings even if following the D trend, that can present a problem with small stops so I don't think that I'll be letting trades run for ever, but that's also because I will still have trend trades from time to time on another method. So on this method most likely in and out in the session.

jjust as matter of interest.. here is one I am in.. its 4 hr Cable.. sorta like a BIG A..B.. C mainly want to mention CCI.. have never really paid much interest in the lines before.. IE 100/200/ centre line but notice especialy if the 210 turns sharp from any of these lines you will get something.. also have noticed if the 50 CCI.. is extreme OS.. like the 200 you will get a good run.. I am gonna run the three for a while and see how I go.. 14/50/210..in conjunction with ABCsss on hier time frames and lower.... just putting my 3 pence worth in ..CAUSE the ABCs as per V s site and CCIs are dear to my HEART..oh ps also hier lo loer hi as per V

Hi Danc

You are quite right about the overbought levels definately worth looking at as turning points for trades. I use the 210 overbought to turn down then look to sell the 14 cci on the timeframe I am trading. I use the 14 to 210 ratio because I like the 14 CCI on my base timeframe so trade it on the 1 min but so I can see the 14cci of the 15 min I put a 14x15=210 CCI on my 1 min chart so I can clearly see whats happening on 15 min chart whilst trading 1 min.

Basically I am trading my 1 min chart in direction of the 15 min momentum, simple as that really.

Now if you want to trade the 4 hr chart as your base I suggest using 14cci for your signals on 4 hr chart but change your other CCI periods to show you whats going on on the higher timeframes 14 cci. So to see the daily 14 CCI then 14x6=84 as there are 6 4hr periods in a 24hr day. If you want to see the weekly 14 CCI then use 84x5=420, thats assuming we say theres 5 trading days to a week.

I think you will find those CCI periods will work better for you as will tie in with how the daily and weekly traders are viewing it and making decisions based on it.

Hope that helps??

Cheers danc

Most things should work from one TF to another, OK there might need to be some tweaking needed here and there.

I am back to looking at shorter TF's again as whilst I still have office duties it looks like from end July they will be reduced significantly. I wanted something where I can use the experience gained to exploit LO and US open short term trend using small stops to increase returns. To be honest am very pleased where this experiment is going. As you may know I am not the kind of person that sees something and 38 seconds later trading it live. In around 10 days have checked out a method, got a great feel for exactly what I am looking to do with it and what set ups I want to trade, for me that's quick. I was thinking if I can get 100% happy by end July that'll be fine!!

Being even more honest this is the 2nd method I have traded in years because of the indi rules that filter some abc's, bottom line the abc's are the same, just a shorter tf and specific entry requirements.

Oh Clive what I wanted to mention on previous post, if I know D trend in one direction and now going into US open I will still be very careful about going CT. I'll either leave or if in then move stop closer, quicker. But if 1hr pre US (traditional) candles are 'weak' I'll most likely leave until we revert to trend. But then I'm not looking to trade everything in sight from 1min, 2 or 3 trades a session is all that's needed.

Mr V.

Have a question for you based on all your years of trading market opens and trading from one session to the other.

In your experience would you say that one session will tend to reverse the previous sessions move??

For instance as GBPAUD has been driven down 80 odd pips over the London open, what would the likelyhood of New York seeing it as at a discount and buying it back all through their session??

Of course the more cynical amongst us might even suggest its been agreed between the London and New York branches of say Barclays Bank that London sell it and make a fortune then New York buy it back, oh and of course New York makes a fortune buying it back???

But then Banks wouldn't do that would they???? It wouldn't be ethical would it???

On the CSM comparisons Mr V.

I just realised I had my CSM set to 200sma instead of 100sma so have changed it over now so a lot more sensitive to the 1 min moves, also now seems to tie up with my Top Trenders too, guess it should as now both set around the 100 period.

If you haven't already give it another try with "oneminma" input set to 100. See if its any better??

I can't get yours to work on my platform so can't compare myself, otherwise I would.

Let me know how it goes?

Hi guys,
Thanks for keeping this alive. Was confused about the top trending pairs as my timing was late. Vantage thanks i guess the CM will make me get in faster..ie the first retraces on the start of the trend.
Clive thanks as well.....am following closely and am sure with Vantage rules....the charts are getting more clearer...Thanks guys

Hi Clive,

Thanks for the update on your CM. Problem its on my chart but i cant get to edit it..Can you please share it.
Vantage it will be a pleasure if you share yours as well.
Sorry if i bother you guys....

On 5 min charts I had enough failed trades from weak 1hr set up candles in and around market opens that I left them all together. Should a 1 min entry be that different, probably not but might give enough room to move stop quicker. Anyway got to a stage that I did'nt care what those 5 min entries did as I knew its a low success rate trade.

I focused on 1hr charts and a CT move that is not worth looking at might on a 1 min chart be an OK trade. I haven't looked at enough 1 min charts yet to see the difference. On the blog posts you'll see http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/0...d-candles.html this is for 1hr candles. So if I talk about weak 1hr candles I mean the small inside close, dojis, candles that fail to break the immediate range. They might make Ok 1 min scalps. One of the problems is that I haven't been able to back test with the CM. So I'm being wary on those trades, moving stops quicker than otherwise the case if I were to take. Please don't mis-read this for a blanket rule on taking no CT (on 1hr) trades, a strong 1hr close that engulfs the previous range would be a different issue. That would imply price moving strongly through the ma's and giving an abc set up in the opposite direction. But I'd still be looking for the same 1 min rules to be in place price above/below ma's, switch from cci 210 extreme -100 to + 100 (or opposite), cci 14 to retrace to give valid pull back, CM confirming the move etc etc. Trading according to rules is the only way you can have any chart put in front of you and you'd be able to say how you'd trade it. Anything other than that becomes the hit and hope, I thought it would do this, I'll give it a go scenario that invariably ends in tears. Also I would be aware of when failed trades were happening, I analyse each and every one, if a pattern develops make no mistake I'll amend plan quickly.

So it comes down to a perceived weak 1hr CT candle (big boys taking their foot off the gas as they feel that they don't have enough people to trade against and waiting for US volumes to kick in) or a strong close engulfing candle. At the moment the trade rules I have doing a decent job of avoiding problems (price not clearing ma's, CM vague).

When markets are really trending strongly pairs like ga and ea never cease to amaze me how they will continue to trend (or revert to). That's what I don't want to miss.

You were struggling recently perhaps trading everything in sight or trying to go CT too quickly. Not everything is a trade. On some pairs like eur it at times just doesn't want to go CT.