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  • #4,461
  • Jun 9, 2014 9:03am Jun 9, 2014 9:03am
Quoting stewrigh
Another reason negative ECB rates will make no difference?? Draghi is full of BS {image}

There are no large deposits with the ECB. So this measure is of no effect. Thanks S for this info

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,462
  • Jun 9, 2014 1:12pm Jun 9, 2014 1:12pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} There are no large deposits with the ECB. So this measure is of no effect. Thanks S for this info Olu
Except that now I guess everyone will expect Draghi to do more next time so it'll sell off in anticipation maybe? sell the rumour again?
  • #4,463
  • Jun 9, 2014 1:53pm Jun 9, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Yep and the last time it was down here was 2007 and we all know what happened next.
LOLLLLL
Last Time this happened, The Financial Crisis Broke Out

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/...broke-out.html
  • #4,464
  • Jun 9, 2014 3:42pm Jun 9, 2014 3:42pm
I'm not longing the euro not for anything. It's too risky and might just be too clever by half.
I haven't been trading currencies for that long, but to the best of my knowledge, it's rarely a good idea to fight a CB that is engaged in activities to weaken its currency. Soros fought the BoE and won, but the BoE was trying to defend the pound (keep it up) rather than push it down.

All that said, I'm surprised by today's reversal on the euro, but the week is yet young and maybe the bulls will step up to the plate after trapping a few bears.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,465
  • Jun 9, 2014 3:45pm Jun 9, 2014 3:45pm
XRT is at an interesting place.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,466
  • Jun 9, 2014 3:51pm Jun 9, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
XRT is at an interesting place. {image}
Just checked the options. There's enough volume & OI to sell some calls. I'll be looking to tomorrow.
Thanks for the idea!
  • #4,467
  • Jun 9, 2014 4:05pm Jun 9, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Just checked the options. There's enough volume & OI to sell some calls. I'll be looking to tomorrow. Thanks for the idea!
No worries mate, you're welcome - and I hope it works out
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,468
  • Jun 9, 2014 5:46pm Jun 9, 2014 5:46pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} LOLLLLL Last Time this happened, The Financial Crisis Broke Out http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/...broke-out.html

Thanks for the links S. Same indices and parameters are setting up again for a crash

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,469
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:16pm Jun 9, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
I'm not longing the euro not for anything. It's too risky and might just be too clever by half. I haven't been trading currencies for that long, but to the best of my knowledge, it's rarely a good idea to fight a CB that is engaged in activities to weaken its currency. Soros fought the BoE and won, but the BoE was trying to defend the pound (keep it up) rather than push it down. All that said, I'm surprised by today's reversal on the euro, but the week is yet young and maybe the bulls will step up to the plate after trapping a few bears.

I hear you BW. As always you want to be on the same side of Draghias per the euro currency. As you know EW helps to map what is going on in the markets. Once you think you have a handle on the markets then you trade accordingly. The general theme of my euro chart is to wait for the retracement to be done and then go with the big move down. Screen watchers can take the upmove but the retracement upmove is usually fickle. frustrating and misleading. When the next move down starts we jump on board and hold on for the ride down.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,470
  • Jun 10, 2014 2:15am Jun 10, 2014 2:15am
Quoting Olu
EurUsd upmove idea in jeopardy {image}
The support area is holding. Perhaps price will move up from here for a bit...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,471
  • Jun 10, 2014 2:22am Jun 10, 2014 2:22am
FXCM Dollar Index
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,472
  • Jun 10, 2014 4:08am Jun 10, 2014 4:08am
Guys you might want to subscribe to this:
http://www.freelists.org/list/thedailyshot
It's free; and you get an email every day with just a few very brief but salient points. I only came across it and subscribed to it a week or so ago and unlike many things (e.g. those PDFs that Jim C so kindly sends our way but which I hardly ever read because they are soooo long) the Daily Shot email is very brief and hence easily digestible.

In today's email, one of the points is this:
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,473
  • Jun 10, 2014 8:26am Jun 10, 2014 8:26am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Guys you might want to subscribe to this: http://www.freelists.org/list/thedailyshot It's free; and you get an email every day with just a few very brief but salient points. I only came across it and subscribed to it a week or so ago and unlike many things (e.g. those PDFs that Jim C so kindly sends our way but which I hardly ever read because they are soooo long) the Daily Shot email is very brief and hence easily digestible. In today's email, one of the points is this: {image}

Thanks BW. Will have a look. Hope it turns out to be like the J Cominskey Rants recommended by Stewrigh. I enjoy those light hearted factual rants.

Thanks BW. Thanks S

By the way the euro did not hold support area and is attempting to retest Draghi's bottom (low!)



Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,474
  • Jun 10, 2014 1:44pm Jun 10, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} The support area is holding. Perhaps price will move up from here for a bit... Olu
Everyone's buying the rumour atm - they all expect Draghi to ease some more and when he does they'll buy lol
  • #4,475
  • Jun 10, 2014 4:36pm Jun 10, 2014 4:36pm
Eurusd - Good argument but price is not (yet) playing ball. I was looking for a 3 wave retracement off the 3500 lows past the 3680 high where a better sell can be laid on. The idea is getting tested to the extremes as price shot down through support. The last stand before 3500 is where price is at right now. We'll see what happens
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,476
  • Jun 10, 2014 5:40pm Jun 10, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting Olu
Eurusd - Good argument but price is not (yet) playing ball. I was looking for a 3 wave retracement off the 3500 lows past the 3680 high where a better sell can be laid on. The idea is getting tested to the extremes as price shot down through support. The last stand before 3500 is where price is at right now. We'll see what happens {image}
LOL Olu, you're obsessed with the euro. I don't think a substantial bounce is gonna happen now. If they were going to take it up they'd have done it already. It would be really odd to reverse (from 1.35 to 1.37), then reverse (from 1.37 to here), then reverse again (higher from here eg to 1.39), and then reverse again (back down).
Really, it's too damn complicated. I think too many people want to get short at higher prices. They missed the boat and are too scared to pull the trigger here.
The ECB move is a game changer. I think we are early in the move. Plenty of pips to be had on the downside.
There is no reason why E/U can't get to sub 1.30 again, or even 1.20. Might take a couple of years, the way these markets are these days, mind.

Could see some consolidation hereabouts though; if it gets back up to say 1.36 I might start adding a little short on E/U (currently flat; but still short E/A from yonks ago).
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,477
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:29am Jun 11, 2014 8:29am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} LOL Olu, you're obsessed with the euro.
No BW. I am obsessed with trading . With the euro idea I am going on about it because the EW idea has not been negated despite the move down. I will not say one more word about it if the 3500 low is broken - except an admission that the idea was wrong.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,478
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:02am Jun 11, 2014 9:02am
Quoting Olu
{quote} No BW. I am obsessed with trading . With the euro idea I am going on about it because the EW idea has not been negated despite the move down. I will not say one more word about it if the 3500 low is broken - except an admission that the idea was wrong.
Mate, I'm just kidding I'm obsessed with trading too. And keep the E/U charts coming, I don't look at it as much as I should.
Remember when I said about E/A that it was good to put a small position on because the trend had clearly changed, but we weren't sure if the countertrend pullback was over at that point? I think that's true of E/U or other Euro pairs at this point. A small position that you're not going to freak over if we see a little countertrend squeeze but rather you'll look on that as an opportunity to add at higher prices.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,479
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:03am Jun 11, 2014 9:03am
IWM: Almost perfect double top incipient right shoulder (i.e. I'm expecting it to become a right shoulder; no guarantees at this point).
I'm expecting a probe back up there to the red line, perhaps later this week. I think they're going to let the air out of this balloon slowly for now..frustrate all the put buyers, make em keep on paying up for that protection
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,480
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:47pm Jun 11, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
IWM: Almost perfect double top incipient right shoulder (i.e. I'm expecting it to become a right shoulder; no guarantees at this point). I'm expecting a probe back up there to the red line, perhaps later this week. I think they're going to let the air out of this balloon slowly for now..frustrate all the put buyers, make em keep on paying up for that protection {image}
BW

I like this one. Can you provide an updated chart that will include today's fall? I know(!) that the powers that be are supporting the stock market and therefore agree with you about the idea of slowly letting the air out of the baloon

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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