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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,101
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:06am Jun 6, 2014 3:06am
Quoting ikdenk
Davit No doubt you would have seen this article: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11268440
We might get push up until June 11 rate decision. It will not surprise me for another rate increase but underlining fundamentals are against it.
To me shorting NZ dollar must be done at right time otherwise it will eat up your account on swap.
nice to have you drop by
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,102
  • Jun 6, 2014 4:37am Jun 6, 2014 4:37am
Quoting Davit
{quote} We might get push up until June 11 rate decision. It will not surprise me for another rate increase but underlining fundamentals are against it. To me shorting NZ dollar must be done at right time otherwise it will eat up your account on swap. nice to have you drop by
Your method lends itself to averaging and holding because we are at extreme prices already.

I use a swap free account for trades with negative swap and a separate account for trades with positive swaps.
  • #1,103
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:26am Jun 6, 2014 5:26am
Quoting Davit
{quote} KADC Your thoughts and opinions are welcome even if it contradicts mine.I think swing and you think the big picture.Could be both correct. I like taking my 80-100pips x5-8 trades then look another. Regards
Well, I seem to contradict a lot of people.

I reversed my EUR/USD on the "close enough" uptick to the top of the consolidation channel. I wasn't going to get back into scalping but the trade was there and I was looking at it so I'd be foolish not to push the button. It coincided with an hourly RSI break, but to be honest I didn't even bother checking. I did the same shorting EUR/JPY on its uptick. Both are moving back up though so they may end up being break-even situations and I don't want to take a new positions so close to US employment data so if EUR/USD breaks back above I'll just chalk that up to an "I should have stuck with my initial analysis" and "stick to long-term trading" lesson.

EUR/AUD is at the May low and a break below would be a good place to add to my short but daily and weekly RSI are right at support so I'll wait for the break there as well.

There's Fibonacci confluence and a descending trend line waiting for AUD/USD at 0.936 -- a good place to see a pullback and a good place short from if you're of that frame of mind. Daily, weekly, and monthly RSI are pointing higher though so I think I'll hold my long, depending on what happens after the unemployment data, of course.

Normally this would be a good time to pack it in and go to bed, but I don't like to leave new trades so close to their entry points unsupervised so I guess I'll have to stick around straight through the North American market open. That's pretty much all this week I've been up during the US session -- that goes against my nocturnal nature. Fortunately I'm not tired so there won't be any wrong-entry mistakes today (knock wood).
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,104
  • Jun 6, 2014 8:16am Jun 6, 2014 8:16am
The week started slow for me. Using davits mehtod -

Just closed all trades-
I had a total of 8 trades this week

I had one losing trade of -32 pips
I had seven wining trades and ended the week with +161.00 pips
I had a gain of 3% this week

Thanks all for shairing great info and davit for a great thread
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,105
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:40am Jun 7, 2014 12:40am
Quoting iamsovereign
The week started slow for me. Using davits mehtod - Just closed all trades- I had a total of 8 trades this week I had one losing trade of -32 pips I had seven wining trades and ended the week with +161.00 pips I had a gain of 3% this week Thanks all for shairing great info and davit for a great thread
Great Job.
Its all about profits.You welcome

Next week AU is very good candidate for short.Little room to go up but not much.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,106
  • Jun 7, 2014 4:04am Jun 7, 2014 4:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great Job. Its all about profits.You welcome Next week AU is very good candidate for short.Little room to go up but not much. {image}
Interesting little difference in our daily close (although mine doesn't until Sunday night). Different broker times I guess?
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,107
  • Jun 7, 2014 4:08am Jun 7, 2014 4:08am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great Job. Its all about profits.You welcome Next week AU is very good candidate for short.Little room to go up but not much. {image}
<Hi Davit, have been great calls this week, especially on pound crosses. For A/U I have a target at 0,9450 to short. Don't know if it gets there, but I will not chase it. Went short on Geppy again, maybe still to early, so tight stop is in place. Will see how it behaves next week. Much depends on U/J. Will it break out or test lower levels first?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,108
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:22pm Jun 7, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Interesting little difference in our daily close (although mine doesn't until Sunday night). Different broker times I guess? {image}
Hi Chris
Also noticed your RSI is less smooth then mine.Interesting how different data feed can make that much difference.
I am excited about next week.This month should be as interesting as MAY
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,109
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:45pm Jun 7, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} <Hi Davit, have been great calls this week, especially on pound crosses. For A/U I have a target at 0,9450 to short. Don't know if it gets there, but I will not chase it. Went short on Geppy again, maybe still to early, so tight stop is in place. Will see how it behaves next week. Much depends on U/J. Will it break out or test lower levels first?
Hi Hickson
Lets print more money
On G/CHF on weekly there is clear resistance breaking 5150 which is 786 fib Scott Carney's sweet spot
I think its matter of time until G/CHF breaks 50 to downhill towards 1.45
We already know Price finds least path of resistance (Jesse Livermore Concept)
If it can't go up it will go down.
On Daily 5110 is 127 Fib Extention
To sum up one can short with confidence from 5095 and up.
On BB system it clearly shows there is lots of room on Bull side however Price is below 20MA and could swing opposite side of BB 4880 area.

To put the puzzle as in chess game looking from different combos

Much depends how which major losses/wins more to USD
GU or EU/ If EU declines on USD then Chf losses to GBP if GU falls less or gains on USD price goes up on G/CHF and opposite
One can substitute CHF for Euro with -99 correlation.

As a general rule every time one places order on crosses and minors we must look at the behavior of majors.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,110
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:56pm Jun 7, 2014 12:56pm
Hi Davit, I know you may get frustrated because people like me who have no vouches/subscribers post here but I would like to let you know that I share your view on G/CHF, however I would be expect some retracement on Daily, maybe just on Monday before we head lower. My method of trading involves waiting for CCI to break below 100 with both 5 and 14 Stochastic to be overbought/oversold (they must overlap) before taking the trade. In this case we can see that CCI is just about to break and both 5 and 14 Stochastic are overbought.

You could let me know what you think of my chart so I may learn but if you feel that this frustrates it, please let me know and I will gladly remove it.
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A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,111
  • Jun 7, 2014 1:06pm Jun 7, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting aeternum
Hi Davit, I know you may get frustrated because people like me who have no vouches/subscribers post here but I would like to let you know that I share your view on G/CHF, however I would be expect some retracement on Daily, maybe just on Monday before we head lower. My method of trading involves waiting for CCI to break below 100 with both 5 and 14 Stochastic to be overbought/oversold (they must overlap) before taking the trade. In this case we can see that CCI is just about to break and both 5 and 14 Stochastic are overbought. You could let me...
Hi A
This is confluence trading which means everyone is welcome posting their method.Its not "system thread"
I share how I trade but others trade differently like KADC,Chris etc
Gist of this thread to find confluence which increases more edges on our side.This has nothing to do with vouches,colors.
I do expect not asking questions when its explained already like "where is your template or indicators which is on 1st page links)
Nothing wrong with your CCI/Stock approach I prefer RSI. I overlapped CCI14 with RSI8 to see how signals were coming in and I did not like it. CCI14 goes in wider swings giving signals that are slightly distorted.
Notice on daily CCI is in -100 area where RSI clearly shows there is lot more room on downside hence its not oversold
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,112
  • Jun 7, 2014 1:31pm Jun 7, 2014 1:31pm
http://sahakianart.com/newworks/photo14.jpg

"HUSH" mixed media
By self
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,113
  • Jun 7, 2014 3:10pm Jun 7, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Chris Also noticed your RSI is less smooth then mine.Interesting how different data feed can make that much difference. I am excited about next week.This month should be as interesting as MAY Regards
I hadn't even noticed the RSI difference Davit. But it's a lot different. Can a small broker time variation make that much difference? I didn't change any settings but it has me curious now.

I am excited as well. Feeling pretty confident again so I will be increasing the lot sizes a bit.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,114
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:07pm Jun 7, 2014 5:07pm
Hi Davit, I think I remember you saying you don't trade YEN pairs? But just in case, have a look at the AJ daily. (Sorry for the mess of fibs) Nice confluence though.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,115
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:36pm Jun 7, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting albchr
Hi Davit, I think I remember you saying you don't trade YEN pairs? But just in case, have a look at the AJ daily. (Sorry for the mess of fibs) Nice confluence though. {image}
Alb,

What are your settings on the BB's. For some reason mine are quite different. I'm a good 40 pips from dev. 2 on mine. RSI is short of the 70/80 as well

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  • #1,116
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:49pm Jun 7, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Alb, What are your settings on the BB's. For some reason mine are quite different. I'm a good 40 pips from dev. 2 on mine. RSI is short of the 70/80 as well {image}
Hi spyderman, Other than colors, I have not changed them from Davit's settings on his template. If you haven't either, it could be the difference between broker feeds and times perhaps?

They are....

EDIT: Sorry folks, I didn't think they'd be that big.
Attached Images
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,117
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:04pm Jun 7, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Hi spyderman, Other than colors, I have not changed them from Davit's settings on his template. If you haven't either, it could be the difference between broker feeds and times perhaps? They are.... EDIT: Sorry folks, I didn't think they'd be that big. {image} {image} {image}
Looking at charts a bit closer, it looks like you have a broker with a Sunday candle. That would throw off the averages on the BB's and RSI. Would never have guessed by that much though. That's interesting.
  • #1,118
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:27pm Jun 7, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Looking at charts a bit closer, it looks like you have a broker with a Sunday candle. That would throw off the averages on the BB's and RSI. Would never have guessed by that much though. That's interesting.
Yeah freaky isn't it? How much it varies? And you're quite right. I have a New York broker with a Sunday candle ?? ... LOL

They tell me it's because they use the world "market average" of GMT 00:00 for the 24 hour cycle. Ok, I can live with that. Then they supply a DP indicator based on NY open/close. Hmmmm..... do you think they're trying to confuse me?

Since the only true indicator (to me) is price, it really doesn't matter to me. When it reaches an area of interest, I don't care what the candle looks like or what small deviations in an indicator might be. In fact, prior to using Davit's setup which I really do like as a very quick visual while scanning through charts, I never used any indicators except some fibs and SR lines and zones.

What I've been working on now is overlaying my SR charts on Davits BB setup. The confluences are actually quite impressive.

For instance, same AJ daily chart with less clutter..lol. Notice my SR (white lines) and Davit's outer BB's? Kinda cool huh? I see this confluence on all the pairs I watch which is quite a few.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,119
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:36pm Jun 7, 2014 6:36pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Looking at charts a bit closer, it looks like you have a broker with a Sunday candle. That would throw off the averages on the BB's and RSI. Would never have guessed by that much though. That's interesting.
Hi Chris and Spydy,
I was actually going to post AuzJ and AuzCad when I next had access to my charts (not close to my trading PC right now) as i noticed on Friday they were approaching nice BB and RSI levels too, according to Sir Davit's system - but now I compare with spydy's chart I realize I have Sunday candles (like Chris') so would be seeing it differently to Spydy's too.
Spydy, how does ACad look to you? Sorry I cant post my chart right now, but could compare tomorrow properly (unless Chris has that one loaded already?).
From what I can see on Davit's prev charts, he has the Sunday candle too (could be wrong ofc), and the levels i can see on mine usually serve me well so far... would be interesting to find out more on this however. even though it's not a precision indicator I can see that from Spydy's charts compared to what i had seen, it would have been the difference between ignoring and keeping an eye on (and so possibly missing the trade).
  • #1,120
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:48pm Jun 7, 2014 6:48pm
Quoting gjgjg
{quote} Hi Chris and Spydy, I was actually going to post AuzJ and AuzCad when I next had access to my charts (not close to my trading PC right now) as i noticed on Friday they were approaching nice BB and RSI levels too, according to Sir Davit's system - but now I compare with spydy's chart I realize I have Sunday candles (like Chris') so would be seeing it differently to Spydy's too. Spydy, how does ACad look to you? Sorry I cant post my chart right now, but could compare tomorrow properly (unless Chris has that one loaded already?). From what...

A/Cads short of the BB's on mine too.

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I think you're right about Davit's broker's. Comparing his G/F to mine it looks like he has a Sunday candle.
At the end of the day it shouldn't make a world of difference.

Chris,
Yeah confluence is what it's all about. I've tried some of Nanningbob's indi's added to Davit's just to see if I can get anything. His is more trend following though where I would see Davit's of more of an anticipation of direction change in line with being overbought/sold and taking fundis into account. I like that about it.
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