Swing trading with Andrew's pitchforks and volume analysis journal

eu rejection off median line and prior lows...

euro aussie still looks like it has room down to fill double the range (HnS projection)

I made a few comments on the introduction page to talk about probability. This a cherry picked example of what that is

30min chart

intraday entry chart

should be easy to see the trend is down on both/(fractal) moving averge helps with trend direction
the cycle on the intraday chart (stochcasics or some other oscillator) pulls back overbought at a lower price than the previous overbought reading...helps with trend direction as well as far as identifying lower lows and lower highs in the downtrend and vice versa ( red and yellow arrows)
notice on the vertical line, the reversal bar entry is off the horizontal support and resistance line
finally the histogram at the bottom is a gauge of momentum all red...it makes a lower low with price (no divergence)

The last piece is you...can you sit on your hands and wait for the probabilities to come in line? All of these together, at least in this example, is great and you can see the trade took off very nicely...it can as well with just a few of these factors, does that perhaps relate to position size...hmmm something to consider. All your chips in with the most probability and the fewest when they are not so good...do you have a mechanical exit, ie how did you frame the trade from the start...scalp, swing or position trade -- money managment?

Just some food for thought, good luck and good trading all.

euro pound looks to have a well defined ceiling and floor on this slope...

One of the best bars I've ever used and I'll tell you why...these renko bars are an indicator in and of themselves....it has to fill the range to reverse ie a push of momentum creates the reversal bar...I know exactly where that bar is going to close before it does and I know exactly what my risk is for my stop loss when it does right behind that bar. so you can use what ever bar size you want to use a stop that is in your "comfort zone". Each reversal bar forms a pivot, identifying support and resistance as well as trend for higher highs and lows...all based on price taking time out of the equation. They clean the chart up very very nicely. You can see price patterns with ease, etc.

Not always this nice but I always like to see what dynamics are taking place at significant swings in the market...like to swing trade forex a little more and day trade futures, but usually the same ingredients are there at the turn...some divergence...a higher high is made followed by a higher low...always helps when it pulls back to supp/resis like this.

easy to see the buyers at prior lows from the wicks nice bounce off that double bottom...black center line is worth watching for a retest failure.

with this price action on the way down support coming resistance on the slope as well as prior lows this looks very bearish to me....the squeeze was on though I can see why it bounced where it did off prior tops...ran right into the 38 fib and turned back down...we'll see if dollar strength continues to drive this back lower.

Here's the intraday bounce only thing missing here is the divergence at the lows...pivots were taken out and pullback to support for higher lows and higher highs

here's the same move in aussie dollar divergence at the lows reversal taking our prior pivots...higher low on the next cycle pullback for the entry riding 90 pips or so into divergence again for the exit at supp/resis.

au .... nice bearish engulfing candle at the upper median line

au 60m...a little closer look at this move up possible stop run at resistance for a 3rd drive

waking up to 90 ticks this morning

another nice overnight trade in oil as well in gold...same continuation pattern, cycle low making higher low and higher high for the long position.

looks like we hit the 50 fib at support trendline for the bounce here in oil

still have long bias. as significant low in gold could be made here at the bottom channel projection of a bigger abc correction.

nice fill at target...70 ticks or so, probably more up will look back in after pit open

Taking a little off on gold here coming into these prior tops 40 ticks or so...the overbought line on the histogram can make a nice exit at times. Pit open in 20 mins we'll see more then.

Here's the before and after now for gold...hopefully you can see why I like the histogram exit, especially when it lines up with time of day.

not a bad way to start the week....

Most definitely more up in CL wow big run today....here's a consolidation breakout trade in nasdaq about to get filled at the histogram exit.

This euro failure at the median line and prior lows looks very bearish again

easy to see the entry on the renko bars...