Attachments: Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

#4,421
Jun 3, 2014 9:00am Jun 3, 2014 9:00am

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

Soybean Meal

I am watching this one. Price has put in a ending diagonal structure right at high levels. An ideal situation is a spike through the upside of structure and then a fall below the lower boundary. That would be my que. By the way a break down from the structure according to EW means the price would go to the origin of the structure i.e 400-420 area

Olu

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: SoyMeal-weekly-03062014-1454uk.JPG
Size: 70 KB

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,422
Jun 4, 2014 12:17am Jun 4, 2014 12:17am

stewrigh
| Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts

Quoting stewrigh

Disliked

{quote} Yeah I just think it's too obvious and everyones expecting it - but......what if we get some really bad numbers out of Europe and some really good ones out of US - theres lots a news this week and the German figures today weren't great.

Ignored

Inserted Video

#4,423
Jun 4, 2014 7:56am Jun 4, 2014 7:56am

Boy Wonder
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,332 Posts

Quoting stewrigh

Disliked

{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MspjmYl4Pr8#t=40

Ignored

I like that guy.
I don't agree with all that he says, but he seems sincere in what he says. He talks like a trader, not an analyst; his own money appears to be on the line, and you can tell that. Analysts (and this includes most people who write professionally on the markets) talk SO MUCH SHIT, and they hedge everything they say, so that in the end they say virtually nothing.

Regarding the euro, he cautions that everyone's getting short on the euro. I've heard that said a few times by other people and I don't think it's true.
E.g. see http://www.hedgeweek.com/2014/06/03/...ion-says-lyxor which says
"Ahead of this week’s ECB monetary policy meeting, hedge funds are cutting positions on the common currency in the anticipation of the central bank adopting expansionary measures, according to Philippe Ferreira, head of research at Lyxor’s managed account platform (MAP)."

This is what most serious traders are going to do going into the meeting because it just doesn't make sense (unless you're trading a 0.01 lots account) to go into the meeting with heavy positions. Trading isn't gambling; gambling isn't trading. If you're guessing, you're not trading.
So I just don't agree that short euro is a crowded trade.

As to the notion that "everything has been priced in". Really? How can we say? We have seen a 3 cent drop that has only taken us back into the 2014 1Q range. This fucker has (potentially) a long way to drop, but how far it's gonna go depends on what the ECB does. Since we don't know what the ECB is going to do, we can't say how much drop is left to come.

Also, he thinks the ECB is not going to deliver. Well, that would be very, very odd, given that Draghi has given repeated signals that is IS going to deliver.
It would be highly irresponsible for the ECB to give such signals and then not deliver. It would also be embarrassing. People would question the ECB's communication and whether it really knows its arse from its elbow.

I think most heavy hitters WANT to get short, but they DON'T want to get short when there is maybe a 25% or 33% chance (or maybe even 50:50 chance) that there is a short squeeze.

I have no clue what I'm talking about.

#4,424
Jun 4, 2014 8:25am Jun 4, 2014 8:25am

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

GbpUsd

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,425
Jun 5, 2014 8:15am Jun 5, 2014 8:15am

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

EurUsd - we finally got the breakdown!

Attached Image

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,426
Jun 5, 2014 10:57am Jun 5, 2014 10:57am

Boy Wonder
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,332 Posts

Transports, pre-NFP to pre-NFP:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 93 KB

I have no clue what I'm talking about.

#4,427
Jun 5, 2014 11:19am Jun 5, 2014 11:19am

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

Quoting Boy Wonder

Disliked

Transports, pre-NFP to pre-NFP: {image}

Ignored

I hear you BW. This will surely end badly imho. Unfortunately I am missing this upmove because of my rational thinking...

Olu

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,428
Jun 5, 2014 12:10pm Jun 5, 2014 12:10pm

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

Dollar Index

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,429
Jun 5, 2014 12:31pm Jun 5, 2014 12:31pm

Boy Wonder
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,332 Posts

Quoting Olu

Disliked

Dollar Index {image}

Ignored

Yeah I think this might be telling us something about how the NFPs are expected to come in tomorrow.
Then again, it might be bigger than that: if the NFPs come in "good" tomorrow maybe that might be an opportunity to sell the dollar on a retrace of today's reversal?

I have no clue what I'm talking about.

#4,430
Jun 5, 2014 1:36pm Jun 5, 2014 1:36pm

stewrigh
| Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts

Quoting Boy Wonder

Disliked

{quote} I like that guy. I don't agree with all that he says, but he seems sincere in what he says. He talks like a trader, not an analyst; his own money appears to be on the line, and you can tell that. Analysts (and this includes most people who write professionally on the markets) talk SO MUCH SHIT, and they hedge everything they say, so that in the end they say virtually nothing. Regarding the euro, he cautions that everyone's getting short on the euro. I've heard that said a few times by other people and I don't think it's true. E.g. see http://www.hedgeweek.com/2014/06/03/...ion-says-lyxor...

Ignored

Yeah he's one of the few traders who seem pretty honest.

He also posts his trades here if you're interested.
https://traderschoice.net/The-Equity-Lists.html

#4,431
Jun 5, 2014 2:39pm Jun 5, 2014 2:39pm

Boy Wonder
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,332 Posts

Quoting stewrigh

Disliked

{quote} Yeah he's one of the few traders who seem pretty honest. He also posts his trades here if you're interested. https://traderschoice.net/The-Equity-Lists.html

Ignored

Thanks mate.

Pretty pissed off with how E/U went. I was suspecting for the last week that they'd flush E/U longs down the toilet with a trip to support at 1.35 before reversing.
But I didn't play it because frankly I'm overcommitted elsewhere.
What makes it worse is that I have a big E/A short on, but didn't cover any of it when E/U hit 1.35.
What's worse than that is that I even didn't think to cover when E/U hit 1.35. That was bad. I didn't make the link between 1.35 as a possible downside target and reversal target on E/U and appropriate action to take on my E/A short.
Bollocks bollocks bollocks.
Oh well, that's trading I suppose. Every day we learn something else that we did wrong. The markets are a harsh master, to be sure, to be sure.

I have no clue what I'm talking about.

#4,432
Jun 5, 2014 6:34pm Jun 5, 2014 6:34pm

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

Quoting Boy Wonder

Disliked

{quote} ...pissed off... The markets are a harsh master...

Ignored

Never mind BW. That is the market for you

Olu

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,433
Jun 5, 2014 6:40pm Jun 5, 2014 6:40pm

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

Quoting stewrigh

Disliked

{quote} Yeah he's one of the few traders who seem pretty honest. He also posts his trades here if you're interested. https://traderschoice.net/The-Equity-Lists.html

Ignored

Thanks for your post S

I have been watching some of the Corminsky Rant and he said something 3 days ago

'if you don't learn from history, history will f**k you up'. That statement resonated with me in a big way. So true...

Olu

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,434
Jun 6, 2014 12:58am Jun 6, 2014 12:58am

stewrigh
| Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts

Quoting Boy Wonder

Disliked

{quote} Thanks mate. Pretty pissed off with how E/U went. I was suspecting for the last week that they'd flush E/U longs down the toilet with a trip to support at 1.35 before reversing. But I didn't play it because frankly I'm overcommitted elsewhere. What makes it worse is that I have a big E/A short on, but didn't cover any of it when E/U hit 1.35. What's worse than that is that I even didn't think to cover when E/U hit 1.35. That was bad. I didn't make the link between 1.35 as a possible downside target and reversal target on E/U and appropriate...

Ignored

Yeah I thought all that talk about shorting the EU was overdone - Whats the old adage - buy the rumour sell the news - Times like that I just stay out.

#4,435
Jun 6, 2014 1:03am Jun 6, 2014 1:03am

stewrigh
| Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts

RR on this just gets better lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: VIX.jpg
Size: 156 KB

#4,436
Jun 6, 2014 2:15am Jun 6, 2014 2:15am

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

Quoting stewrigh

Disliked

{quote} Yeah I thought all that talk about shorting the EU was overdone - Whats the old adage - buy the rumour sell the news - Times like that I just stay out.

Ignored

You said it S

Olu

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#4,437
Jun 6, 2014 2:18am Jun 6, 2014 2:18am

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,287 Posts

Quoting stewrigh

Disliked

RR on this just gets better lol {image}

Ignored

I have been following it too since you first talked about it S. It should all end badly for the stock market. We are talking last year's lows now. Today could be the catalyst...

Olu

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct