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A delicate secret

  • #301
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:18am Jun 5, 2014 12:18am
Quoting saver0
{quote} Actually now that I have looked more, not even FXCM H4 chart data is somewhat different to what EURUSDD posted. I don't get how/why its so different. Oanda and FXCM H4 charts looks very different to what EURUSDD posted. I was hoping to compare what I have with his so it can be validated. Very strange.. Does anyone have H4 data that looks similar to what EURUSDD posted? If so, could you please tell me your broker? Thank you!
hi,

alpari looks similar to his chart.

thanks,

ps: he used alpari demo in the similarity thread.
  • #302
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:44am Jun 5, 2014 12:44am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} There seems no doubt to me that this is a valid way of identifying exit points (where price will definitely return to) so I am going to trade the near ones for the moment. But it is missing the time element so the search continues.
I am more interested in the targets above as they are older and closer to the end of the screen.
It would be good to get this time factor nailed down so that it gives more confidence when entering trades. At the moment possible drawdown while waiting for targets to hit is a big factor.

With that it mind I am thinking of a possible scalping strategy where you only need to enter maybe say 5-10 pips before the target.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #303
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:45am Jun 5, 2014 12:45am
Quoting jimsterk
{quote} hi, alpari looks similar to his chart. thanks, ps: he used alpari demo in the similarity thread.
Thank you Jimsterk! Yup, it looks very Similar or even the same! Now we are in business! hehe
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #304
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:21am Jun 5, 2014 1:21am
Too bad EURUSDD isn't replying to this thread anymore.

To those of who seem to have figured this out. I have a challenge for you.

Look at EURUSD M30 chart, what about May 8th of 2014? Because here we have a peak at 5/8/2014 8:30AM (GMT -4) that the price still haven't returned to. Does your indicator have a level here? Because if you went long anywhere near that top, its very probable to even get margin called if you put in a large enough lot.

What are your thoughts?

Thank you
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #305
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:25am Jun 5, 2014 1:25am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting saver0
Too bad EURUSDD isn't replying to this thread anymore. To those of who seem to have figured this out. I have a challenge for you. Look at EURUSD M30 chart, what about May 8th of 2014? Because here we have a peak at 5/8/2014 8:30AM (GMT -4) that the price still haven't returned to. Does your indicator have a level here? Because if you went long anywhere near that top, its very probable to even get margin called if you put in a large enough lot. What are your thoughts? Thank you
Hi Saver0,

Are you talking about the big candle that spikes up? If so based on what I know that would not be a target. Interestingly...the one previous to that on the 6th was a target. The spike up on the 8th took it out....lol

I don't have an indicator so you may want to take another view...

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #306
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:44am Jun 5, 2014 1:44am
Quoting saver0
Too bad EURUSDD isn't replying to this thread anymore. To those of who seem to have figured this out. I have a challenge for you. Look at EURUSD M30 chart, what about May 8th of 2014? Because here we have a peak at 5/8/2014 8:30AM (GMT -4) that the price still haven't returned to. Does your indicator have a level here? Because if you went long anywhere near that top, its very probable to even get margin called if you put in a large enough lot. What are your thoughts? Thank you
I always test ideas out on 8 May and 6 Sep 2013 because they were killer days for lots of strategies. The strategy I am using for this (explained in a previous post) survived both those days which is why I was encouraged but it still takes much longer than eurusdd states to return to the levels so there is a condition/filter regarding timing that I am missing.
  • #307
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:58am Jun 5, 2014 1:58am
Quoting Neio
{quote} Hi Saver0, Are you talking about the big candle that spikes up? If so based on what I know that would not be a target. Interestingly...the one previous to that on the 6th was a target. The spike up on the 8th took it out....lol I don't have an indicator so you may want to take another view... Regards Neio
Haha yup, but not exactly the same candle but any candle after that in that day or after. If there was a long signal developed on March 8th 8:30AM - March 9th 10:00AM, then this level would not have been reached yet for the most part unless the log signal was for the 1 or 2 candles where the price actually touched.

So the trick might be to see what's going on in days like these with the candle patterns so that EURUSDD's indicator would just pick the perfect ones where the price barely reached the top...
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #308
  • Jun 5, 2014 3:53am Jun 5, 2014 3:53am
I tested the Price Action indicator that's similar to what OD had.

There were many places where the price simply never reached. So this Price Action indicator is not like what EURUSDD showed us it seems.

Attached is the screenshot with the vertical lines of price levels that never reached some going years back. It didn't matter which time period that I looked at. I also tested with different values for range. However the math of Price Action indicator is something to be understood..

0
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screen.png Size: 36 KB
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #309
  • Jun 5, 2014 4:48am Jun 5, 2014 4:48am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quiet here....but EU seems to be moving in the right direction for now. Possible Big impact News to come later!
Watching with interest to see how this plays out.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #310
  • Jun 5, 2014 4:52am Jun 5, 2014 4:52am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} orange and yellow take care of micro-time-frames. Everything below 4hr. Any division is included. The whit takes care of macro-time-frame. everything above 1hr, including yearly timeframes ..... When you choose a time-frame : 5min say, we find the present-value of arrows on higher tfs and the future values of arrows on lower tfs. We the put all that into the 5min tf. Hence, whatever you see on the 5min tf is in agreement with any time frame, no matter the unit you use.
Did anyone understand this fully? I'm confused with this statement. This sounds like he used MTF analysis to figure out these arrows. So the Orange/Yellow arrows (the actual targets) comes from over time frames. And then the white arrows comes from higher time frames. And I guess all time frames has to agree for the Orange/Yellow arrows to appear? Is that correct? This might be way more complicated.. might not even be possible to crack..
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #311
  • Jun 5, 2014 5:30am Jun 5, 2014 5:30am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting saver0
{quote} Did anyone understand this fully? I'm confused with this statement. This sounds like he used MTF analysis to figure out these arrows. So the Orange/Yellow arrows (the actual targets) comes from over time frames. And then the white arrows comes from higher time frames. And I guess all time frames has to agree for the Orange/Yellow arrows to appear? Is that correct? This might be way more complicated.. might not even be possible to crack..
I commented on this in one of my previous posts...but would be interest to hear other thoughts.

I don't have access to my MT4 platform at the moment. Can anyone confirm if we have created any lower targets on the lower tfs? I believe we have. If the theory holds true though price must be looking to take out those upper targets sooner rather than later?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #312
  • Jun 5, 2014 5:35am Jun 5, 2014 5:35am
Hello All,

Here are my latest charts:

1. for the immediate target,
2. and also the medium and longer term targets that have not yet been hit.

I have clicked through the timeframes and marked the top and bottom lines for each in a different colour. As you can see, just because my orange/green bars occur on one timeframe, they may not be there on another.

But I think the summary chart is quite useful.

BTW, I have just realised how to read PM in the new system . (I can only learn a limited number of "new tricks" at one time )

My inbox has exploded! I will try to get back to you all !!

Best regards,

Old Dog

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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #313
  • Jun 5, 2014 5:40am Jun 5, 2014 5:40am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Old_Dog
Hello All, Here are my latest charts: 1. for the immediate target, 2. and also the medium and longer term targets that have not yet been hit. I have clicked through the timeframes and marked the top and bottom lines for each in a different colour. As you can see, just because my orange/green bars occur on one timeframe, they may not be there on another. But I think the summary chart is quite useful. BTW, I have just realised how to read PM in the new system . (I can only learn a limited number of "new tricks" at one time ) My...

Very neat! I noticed that you marked one target as the "Next Official target!" is that just based on closeness to the end of the screen?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #314
  • Jun 5, 2014 5:43am Jun 5, 2014 5:43am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Old_Dog
Hello All, Here are my latest charts: 1. for the immediate target, 2. and also the medium and longer term targets that have not yet been hit. I have clicked through the timeframes and marked the top and bottom lines for each in a different colour. As you can see, just because my orange/green bars occur on one timeframe, they may not be there on another. But I think the summary chart is quite useful. BTW, I have just realised how to read PM in the new system . (I can only learn a limited number of "new tricks" at one time ) My...
OD are you able to comment on the time factor? Are all your targets hit before they disappear of the end of the screen?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #315
  • Jun 5, 2014 5:55am Jun 5, 2014 5:55am
Quoting Neio
{quote} OD are you able to comment on the time factor? Are all your targets hit before they disappear of the end of the screen?
Hi Neio

Please see my Post #279 which no-one has commented on yet. This mystifies me still

My "next offical target" is based on recency and closeness to edge of the screen. But that may be wrong!

Remember -- I am not a guru. Just a fellow traveller on this interesting journey...

Best regards,

Old Dog

.
  • #316
  • Jun 5, 2014 6:53am Jun 5, 2014 6:53am
Quoting Old_Dog
Hello All, Here are my latest charts: 1. for the immediate target, 2. and also the medium and longer term targets that have not yet been hit. I have clicked through the timeframes and marked the top and bottom lines for each in a different colour. As you can see, just because my orange/green bars occur on one timeframe, they may not be there on another. But I think the summary chart is quite useful. BTW, I have just realised how to read PM in the new system . (I can only learn a limited number of "new tricks" at one time ) My...
Looks like both of the targets got triggered just now!! wow! Look at her fly to the lower Lows! Good thing I stayed out of the market today due to big ECB news. But looks like what you OD has worked well!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #317
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:33am Jun 5, 2014 8:33am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Pretty accurate result. Although it was a big move it hit the top targets to the pip. Very impressive.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #318
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:08am Jun 5, 2014 9:08am
Quoting Neio
Pretty accurate result. Although it was a big move it hit the top targets to the pip. Very impressive.
I'm up about 120 pips having bought into the down move; looking into a move back to the 1.3640 area.
  • #319
  • Jun 5, 2014 9:38am Jun 5, 2014 9:38am
Quoting Neio
Pretty accurate result. Although it was a big move it hit the top targets to the pip. Very impressive.
Hello All,

Yes - I was amazed by this one. I thought if EU fell hard after the news, it would of course have the inevitable "dead cat bounce" but only 20% or so.

To recover right back to targets set on the way down was quite something.

I took a long near the bottom (with enormous trepidation as I really did not believe in the trade ) but bagged another pile of shekels!

There really seems to be something in this. If we can just find a justification for the rule that the target must be hit before the generating bar leaves the screen, I'll feel a lot happier!

Best regards,

Old Dog

.
  • #320
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:16pm Jun 5, 2014 1:16pm
Well, well, well....

After that sharp fall on the news, who would have thought price would return to the last piece of "unfinished business" from a fortnight ago?

"Curiouser and curiouser", as Alice once said.....

Old Dog

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