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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,041
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:28pm Jun 4, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting Feefee
{quote} Wow albchr its almost as is that post came right out of my mind.....I was the same, daytrading and scalping, but since seeing the calmness and calculation of Davits trading it makes me want to do the same and I am also waiting for next week to give this a shot, but of course like you said it will require discipline and a change of mindset. Having full faith in the trade set out will also help to feel more relaxed and let the market do its thing.
Hello Feefee, First, it's Chris

For me the mindset is the easy part. I want to hold trades longer naturally so in truth, I've had to force myself to day trade/scalp just due to my limited funds. (What a mind opening business this can be no?) Now for the "having full faith in the setup", Technically speaking I'm pretty good in my analysis. Where any "lack of faith" comes in for me is the wildcard of not fully understanding the fundamentals behind things and how they effect the market as a whole.

It is this reason folks like Davit, KADC and some others are so very important to me. As I said above, this knowledge really requires some time to grasp. The beauty of a thread like this and the folks here is we can begin to learn over time as we trade. Just have to love it!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,042
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:28pm Jun 4, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Love Reuters to Interest article - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0EF1A720140604
book marked it
1.30...

Everyone expects ECB to take action...
Funny poker face Mario I suspect will do nothing.Too much press about ECB
Don't short at these levels or you may end up holding the brown bag

Once again my game plan
Bottom truth EZ needs lower Euro to recover.So my fundemetal view is Bear and sell the rallies to 1.35 and below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.daily.png Size: 56 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,043
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:40pm Jun 4, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Hello Feefee, First, it's Chris For me the mindset is the easy part. I want to hold trades longer naturally so in truth, I've had to force myself to day trade/scalp just due to my limited funds. (What a mind opening business this can be no?) Now for the "having full faith in the setup", Technically speaking I'm pretty good in my analysis. Where any "lack of faith" comes in for me is the wildcard of not fully understanding the fundamentals behind things and how they effect the market as a whole. It is this reason folks like Davit, KADC...

Hi Chris

You are absolutely correct....this is what I love about coming on here, reading and understanding and constantly improving while learning from each other. There is always something to learn ....love that

My issue is mostly not letting my profits run and what really attracted me to Davits style of trading is when everyone in the market was shouting out for 1.4200 Davit was calm and kept to his analysis. I was also short but started to doubt myself a little after reading all the doom and gloom

Thank you all for being so kind and sharing, and thank you Davit for being so helpful
  • #1,044
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:42pm Jun 4, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} book marked it 1.30... Everyone expects ECB to take action... Funny poker face Mario I suspect will do nothing.Too much press about ECB Don't short at these levels or you may end up holding the brown bag Once again my game plan Bottom truth EZ needs lower Euro to recover.So my fundemetal view is Bear and sell the rallies to 1.35 and below. {image}
See, this is what I love so much Davit. As you know my purely TA view tells me the very same thing. But having someone who understands the fundamentals back up that view? Simply Priceless!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,045
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:45pm Jun 4, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting Feefee
{quote} Hi Chris You are absolutely correct....this is what I love about coming on here, reading and understanding and constantly improving while learning from each other. There is always something to learn ....love that My issue is mostly not letting my profits run and what really attracted me to Davits style of trading is when everyone in the market was shouting out for 1.4200 Davit was calm and kept to his analysis. I was also short but started to doubt myself a little after reading all the doom and gloom Thank you all for being so kind and...
We are all students and teachers for life.

For many years in the summer months I volunteered teaching computers to special needs children. How to build and use them. You'd be amazed how much I learned from them.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,046
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:46pm Jun 4, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} We are all students and teachers for life. For many years in the summer months I volunteered teaching computers to special needs children. How to build and use them. You'd be amazed how much I learned from them.
  • #1,047
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:53pm Jun 4, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Chris I love your humbleness but you always seem to be undervaluing yourself. Your thread has a lot to offer and love the social chat. Cheers
Sorry brother I missed this post. They are really hopping here today.

I thank you so much squawk. Right or wrong, it's just part of my nature I guess. I don't have much of an ego and I think in today's world (especially on a traders forum...lol), that can be seen as undervaluing myself perhaps? If so, I can live with it. Like I have a choice anyway.... ... lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,048
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:00pm Jun 4, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Sorry brother I missed this post. They are really hopping here today. I thank you so much squawk. Right or wrong, it's just part of my nature I guess. I don't have much of an ego and I think in today's world (especially on a traders forum...lol), that can be seen as undervaluing myself perhaps? If so, I can live with it. Like I have a choice anyway.... ... lol
No worries Chris didn't need to reply just wanted you to feel some love.
  • #1,049
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:01pm Jun 4, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} book marked it 1.30... Everyone expects ECB to take action... Funny poker face Mario I suspect will do nothing.Too much press about ECB Don't short at these levels or you may end up holding the brown bag Once again my game plan Bottom truth EZ needs lower Euro to recover.So my fundemetal view is Bear and sell the rallies to 1.35 and below. {image}
No thinking of shorting maybe looking at 760 or higher for a short.
  • #1,050
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:11pm Jun 4, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} No worries Chris didn't need to reply just wanted you to feel some love.
...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #1,051
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:11pm Jun 4, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} No thinking of shorting maybe looking at 760 or higher for a short.
Added lower limit shorts at 2x37
I feel comfortable shorting from 37+ Lets hope we get a rally and not straight to 1.33 which is possible if Mario does something to boast inflation.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,052
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:18pm Jun 4, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Added lower limit shorts at 2x37 I feel comfortable shorting from 37+ Lets hope we get a rally and not straight to 1.33 which is possible if Mario does something to boast inflation.
Wouldn't be surprised to see it spike lower then retrace up to 37 and above. Have to wait and see. I'm actually still baby sitting some longs from 620 and 600 that I was hoping to get a better retrace before news tomorrow. Have to wait and see. Might look to trim down on position by end of day.

Good luck tomorrow.
  • #1,053
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:26pm Jun 4, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi KADC Glad to see you post again.Yes I am counting price correction and I will sell again since EZ has not solved under inflation issue. My sells start from fib 38 618 786 levels but I don't think we will go past 3790 Feel free to post your RSI charts whenever you like Regards
I agree, and monthly and weekly EUR/USD charts have me favouring longer term downside as well.

I haven't been very active, just a short on EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD at the moment. Short-term reasoning (besides technical indicators) being if the Euro is going up tomorrow it will likely continue to move lower to trick more retail traders to go short. Alternately it will go nowhere to lure retail traders into taking early long positions before hitting them with a stop-breaking and short entry-triggering spike down when the data is released. With Euro, Pound, and US economic data all hitting tomorrow the Yen becomes the temporary safe haven (no news is good news) as does the Aussie being the strongest of the minors. Also, seasonality and hawkish BoJ commentary favour the Yen and seasonality favours the Aussie overall, thus short EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD, the latter of which I've been short for some time and it's yet to either complete it's move down or invalidate it. Both should either play out favourably or do nothing overnight and I should exit before the ECB rate decision then re-evaluate; though if AUD/USD breaks above yesterday's CPI peak I might leave my EUR/AUD in play with a sensible stop.

RSI has been too messy (or maybe I've just lost my mojo) for many of the trades I've looked at, but I have solid RSI on the weekly and monthly US gold charts and all the mid to long-term AUD/NZD charts (which I missed the initial entry for and am now waiting for a retest of the top of the prior consolidation range to go long).

I'll post some charts later after I have a nap and/or a meal and a proper sleep.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,054
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:32pm Jun 4, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} book marked it 1.30... Everyone expects ECB to take action... Funny poker face Mario I suspect will do nothing.Too much press about ECB Don't short at these levels or you may end up holding the brown bag Once again my game plan Bottom truth EZ needs lower Euro to recover.So my fundemetal view is Bear and sell the rallies to 1.35 and below. {image}
That is a very good point. Draghi has a definite history of underwhelming followup after making bold statements about what the ECB is willing to do. That's yet more ammunition for the Euro to move up tomorrow.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,055
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:01am Jun 5, 2014 8:01am
Yesterday UBS report on the Euro you may find interesting and Morgan Stanley research paper.

3500 is there short term target.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MR_report.pdf   1.0 MB | 565 downloads
File Type: pdf bankreport.pdf   116 KB | 344 downloads
  • #1,056
  • Edited 8:31am Jun 5, 2014 8:06am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting squawk
Yesterday UBS report on the Euro you may find interesting and Morgan Stanley research paper. 3500 is there short term target. {image} {image}

Live trades
Short AUD/CHF 2x at 8390 (great number)
Short G/CHF 2x 5095 5112 (limit that triggered)

4 live trades
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,057
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:32am Jun 5, 2014 8:32am
Added 2 more shorts on AUD/CHF at 8382 total 4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf.daily.png Size: 44 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,058
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:38am Jun 5, 2014 8:38am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I agree, and monthly and weekly EUR/USD charts have me favouring longer term downside as well. I haven't been very active, just a short on EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD at the moment. Short-term reasoning (besides technical indicators) being if the Euro is going up tomorrow it will likely continue to move lower to trick more retail traders to go short. Alternately it will go nowhere to lure retail traders into taking early long positions before hitting them with a stop-breaking and short entry-triggering spike down when the data is released. With...
Watching AUD for shorts not yet
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,059
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:44am Jun 5, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Live trades Short AUD/CHF 2x at 8390 (great number) Short G/CHF 2x 5095 5112 (limit that triggered) 4 live trades
Great trades!!
  • #1,060
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:46am Jun 5, 2014 8:46am
Quoting wind.rpha
{quote} Great trades!!
Thank you
All trades in green +75pips now but holding out for more
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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