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A delicate secret

  • #281
  • Jun 4, 2014 11:27am Jun 4, 2014 11:27am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Mmm, if the level has to be revisited before the bar on the lowest timeframe leaves the screen that is going to be tricky. I'll need to go back and see if that holds up. Somehow I doubt it - but it sure makes money!

Are you with me that some bars on higher tf's might not have a corresponding bar on a lower timeframe? So some targets only exist on higher tfs?

PLEASE NOTE - I am just basing my theory on what I THINK I have seen....I don't have any special indicators to identify targets...I am just looking manually.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #282
  • Jun 4, 2014 11:59am Jun 4, 2014 11:59am
Quoting Neio
{quote} Are you with me that some bars on higher tf's might not have a corresponding bar on a lower timeframe? So some targets only exist on higher tfs? PLEASE NOTE - I am just basing my theory on what I THINK I have seen....I don't have any special indicators to identify targets...I am just looking manually.
Really good question. I'd need a bit more time to be thorough but there was a good example yesterday at 13.30 (alpari UK time) where M30 and H1 made a low signal (H1 made it at the 13.00 bar but the same low price). M5 did not give a signal. M15 also gave a low signal on its 13.30 bar but the low of that bar was taken out on the 13.45 bar so that in effect completed the M15 move. Both M30 and H1 completed at 11.30 today which is 44 bars on the M30. I only get around 30 bars when I zoom out to maximum but I am finding that a good rule of thumb is completion within 50 bars so maybe that could be accounted for by different screen resolutions.

Hope that makes sense but it does bear out that the lower of the timeframes with a valid signal is the one to watch.
  • #283
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:18pm Jun 4, 2014 12:18pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Yes that makes sense. Excellent example. I am out at the moment but will reply more fully later. At the moment are there any more lower targets on the lower tfs?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #284
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:34pm Jun 4, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting Neio
Yes that makes sense. Excellent example. I am out at the moment but will reply more fully later. At the moment are there any more lower targets on the lower tfs?
The low at 1.35992 has just been taken out (yay!). There is M5 high at 1.36112.
  • #285
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:40pm Jun 4, 2014 12:40pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} The low at 1.35992 has just been taken out (yay!). There is M5 high at 1.36112.
Nice one. So although it may continue to go down further the next targets are all above on tfs less than 1h?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #286
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:40pm Jun 4, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting Neio
Yes that makes sense. Excellent example. I am out at the moment but will reply more fully later. At the moment are there any more lower targets on the lower tfs?
sorry, just realised what you were asking. No more lower targets for the moment so clear to go up unless it makes a new low
  • #287
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:45pm Jun 4, 2014 12:45pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} sorry, just realised what you were asking. No more lower targets for the moment so clear to go up unless it makes a new low
So if the theory and targets are correct we should eventually start moving up. It could fall an create new targets but has to rise to take out the older higher targets
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #288
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:52pm Jun 4, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} So if the theory and targets are correct we should eventually start moving up. It could fall an create new targets but has to rise to take out the older higher targets
yes, there are few on the top side now so I only have longs open currently
  • #289
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:59pm Jun 4, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} yes, there are few on the top side now so I only have longs open currently
Is one of your long targets any where near 1.36231?

Also on historical data, how recent are the bars you are analyzing?
  • #290
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:11pm Jun 4, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} Is one of your long targets any where near 1.36231? Also on historical data, how recent are the bars you are analyzing
My immediate targets are 1.36112 M5; 1.36235 H1&M30; 1.36452 M30; and 1.36472 H4

The 1.36452 level is now quite old as the signal printed at 16.30 (14.30 BST) yesterday so maybe it is out of time but the H4 signal at 1.36472 was 12.00 today so the signs of a rise are quite strong.
  • #291
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:02pm Jun 4, 2014 2:02pm
I just want to add 3 other important points.

1. The originator says that the price must hit the target before the bars leave the screen.
2. He is trying to find the point to which the price has to retrace to.
3. A keyword he mentions is contradictions in the market.

As we all know when the price moves with an impulse in any particular direction it has to retrace back at some point. The question is what factors can help us to determine to what level a price may retrace to.

Lets look at it from the perspective of a trader. If the price is moving up few traders will be going short, however, there will come a point when the price will hesitate and traders will go short (in order to get in on a high), If enough traders go short and the price continues going up then there is a kind of contradiction in that, there are a number of traders who are positioned wrongly in the market. So these traders have three options:

1. Get out of the trade immediately for a small loss which will further propel the market north. (closing a long is essentially buying into the market)
2. Wait for the next pause (or technical level) and keep adding orders until the price returns to the initial buying level. which would mean closing the first order at break even and the others for profits.
3. Keep the order open and wait for the price to return to the buy level and close to break even.

I think the most likeliest scenarios for many traders are options 2 and 3.

What this means then is that when the price returns to a level where a significant number of traders had entered wrongly in the market, the traders who then go about limiting their losses will contribute to support. If information concerning the location of these orders is available then other traders who haven't entered the market will use this as a buying opportunity so further contributing to support.

So the question arises how do we go about determining the location of support. I think the key here is volume in conjunction with alternating candles and their size . Also, if we were able to drop down a few time frames we could pin point where the market behaves in a contradictory manner.

I believe what I have mentioned above is part of the mechanics that make up Support and Resistance, knowing the mechanics is not important because one can easily just trade S/R and be profitable, but, knowing the mechanics can help to develop an insight into what traders are doing, who are essentially driving the market.

In addition, why does the originator say that the price must return within a certain number of bars. Because the up and down moves have a particular period or frequency, his logic requires the retrace to reach the target level at least within one cycle. It means there must be a correlation between time as well.

Just to put time into perspective, there are traders who use time as factor in their trading, they trade sessions for example. If you look at any session there is a movement out of an initial range and then a retrace towards the end of the session. Traders who are in profit out of the range start taking profit and closing out. Some traders will exit a trade based on time. If for example the trade isn't profitable say after a certain number of bars they will close out.

So how would one go about building an indicator.

Measure the immediate cyclic period of the market for that particular time frame. Analyse the volume traded over the bars from low to high, correlate with change in direction of candles, lower time frames will give more precise levels. if there is a level where significant volume occurs in conjunction with an opposing candle then that is a likely point to which the price will retrace.
  • #292
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:07pm Jun 4, 2014 2:07pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} My immediate targets are 1.36112 M5; 1.36235 H1&M30; 1.36452 M30; and 1.36472 H4 The 1.36452 level is now quite old as the signal printed at 16.30 (14.30 BST) yesterday so maybe it is out of time but the H4 signal at 1.36472 was 12.00 today so the signs of a rise are quite strong.
Let's see how this plays out.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #293
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:27pm Jun 4, 2014 2:27pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
I could be wrong but it looks like there could be a lower and older target on the daily chart at around 1.3560? The candle is on the 12th Feb.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #294
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:38pm Jun 4, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} The low at 1.35992 has just been taken out (yay!). There is M5 high at 1.36112.
I took profit when price covered the 0900 bar and now I'm targeting 1.3639, with a longer term target @ 1.3735.
  • #295
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:05pm Jun 4, 2014 3:05pm
Quoting Neio
I could be wrong but it looks like there could be a lower and older target on the daily chart at around 1.3560? The candle is on the 12th Feb.
Yes, I see the daily candle on 12 Feb. I have set up my indicator to only put a signal against the first occurrence of a signal in the opposite direction to the last and so missed this, I probably need to tweak that.
  • #296
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:32pm Jun 4, 2014 3:32pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Yes, I see the daily candle on 12 Feb. I have set up my indicator to only put a signal against the first occurrence of a signal in the opposite direction to the last and so missed this, I probably need to tweak that.
I am not sure how relevant it is and if it is off the chart or not. Probably worth keeping an eye on it to see if it closes.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #297
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:34pm Jun 4, 2014 4:34pm
A golden oldy on a similar subject: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=275423
  • #298
  • Edited 10:51pm Jun 4, 2014 10:24pm | Edited 10:51pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} My immediate targets are 1.36112 M5; 1.36235 H1&M30; 1.36452 M30; and 1.36472 H4 The 1.36452 level is now quite old as the signal printed at 16.30 (14.30 BST) yesterday so maybe it is out of time but the H4 signal at 1.36472 was 12.00 today so the signs of a rise are quite strong.
The M5 target (1.3611) is now approximately 125 bars away and is not showing on my screen when fully zoomed out. It only shows if I zoom all the way in then click twice to zoom out.

EDIT The other targets seem to be OK when fully zoomed out.

The M30 target at 1.3645 does not show fully zoomed in either. Zoom in all the way and then zoom out once and I can see it. Will keep my chart on that setting now.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #299
  • Edited Jun 5, 2014 12:46am Jun 4, 2014 10:59pm | Edited Jun 5, 2014 12:46am
Quoting Old_Dog
{quote} Hello all, Here you go... As a matter of fact, my thinking behind my indicator was very much along the lines PorkPie outlined in Post 227. I too am a Supply/Demand devotee. Looking at the code posted from the TSD thread, there are obvious similarities! Perhaps they were onto this wheeze before EURUSDD Anyway, I don't suppose there is much new under the sun. Old ideas get recycled and I am still grateful to EURUSDD for bringing it to my attention. Best regards, Old Dog . {image}
Quoting Porkpie
{quote} Here's mine. Will be interesting to compare. {image}
One more favor to ask you Old_Dog and Porkpie.

This will be good for you as well. Could you two please get Alpari UK demo accounts and load up their MT4 with their bar data? I looked at it and that bar data is identical to what EURUSDD had (I think he also used Alpari UK (Thanks jimsterk). And please post screen shots for mid March so we can compare to what EURUSDD had exactly

Thank you so much you two!!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #300
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:06am Jun 5, 2014 12:06am
Quoting Neio
{quote} The M5 target (1.3611) is now approximately 125 bars away and is not showing on my screen when fully zoomed out. It only shows if I zoom all the way in then click twice to zoom out. EDIT The other targets seem to be OK when fully zoomed out. The M30 target at 1.3645 does not show fully zoomed in either. Zoom in all the way and then zoom out once and I can see it. Will keep my chart on that setting now.
There seems no doubt to me that this is a valid way of identifying exit points (where price will definitely return to) so I am going to trade the near ones for the moment. But it is missing the time element so the search continues.
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