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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #221
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:40am Jun 3, 2014 7:40am
Quoting Vantage
I do wish you well Clive and the post eur news move on euraud was very nice. As long as you have rules and structure around what you are doing that's fine. Talking Islander the reminder is he does what he does after endless research, so he is 100% completely clear on what, why, where, when. He trades 1 min but his rules are clear and he is without question fully aware of the bigger picture. Anyway I'll keep on popping by as I do have some views on this set up you have put forward.
Thanks Mr Vantage,

Please do, it won't be the same without you and I have already picked up masses LWMA8 for starters and from your vast experience of market opens already.

By the way that EURAUD would of been about 60 plus pips up by now from that first HL something I learned from your thread, a lot of my trading is from your LHHL thread anyway.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud rebeversal works out well.png Size: 75 KB


Please keep posting and keep this young bull from running too fast.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #222
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:02am Jun 3, 2014 8:02am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Please do it won't be the same without you and I have already picked up masses from your vast experience already.By the way that EURAUD would of been about 60 plus pips up by now from that first HL something I learned from your thread, a lot of my trading is from your LHHL thread anyway. Pleas keep posting and keep this young bull from running too fast.
Ok then on the question of every 1 min hl/lh, what worked today won't always and the last thing you want is to get chopped to death getting 3 losing trades in a row only to get a 40 pip winner and be up a small amount for the day. Be aware of news events and clear higher lows or lower highs that follow i.e. it really looks like news has shifted markets direction. Todays euraud was a post news change of direction.

Today the big winners were gbpchf below 100/200 emas and cc1 210 hit -100 and euraud the opposite. As I mentioned to you earlier the currency meter had chf as the strongest and gbp the weakest signalling the sell nice and early. It remains to be seen if following direction of cci 210 at +100 or -100 (with final choice from currency meter strong v weak) and above/below the 100/200 emas the way to go. The small stops means you can trade 1 full lot on $5000 with 2% risk so its worth investing some time.

The difference between us is I imagine I'll stick be focused on a couple of trades a session in a clearly trending (or turned) pair. Like I said I'll be investing some time.
  • #223
  • Edited 8:24am Jun 3, 2014 8:10am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Ok then on the question of every 1 min hl/lh, what worked today won't always and the last thing you want is to get chopped to death getting 3 losing trades in a row only to get a 40 pip winner and be up a small amount for the day. Be aware of news events and clear higher lows or lower highs that follow i.e. it really looks like news has shifted markets direction. Todays euraud was a post news change of direction. Today the big winners were gbpchf below 100/200 emas and cc1 210 hit -100 and euraud the opposite. As I mentioned to you earlier...
Take both your pionts and use my own currency strength meter too top right of my screen, also of course the top trenders is a currency strength meter of sorts as fastest moving pair comes to the top.

Now as for trading reversals well maybe it would be best for pair to appear in top 8 trender then when I look at the chart for first time I have to access whether its a reversal on cards or not and will buy first HL or LH depending on direction, to qualify the fiirst HL should be preceded by a first HH fiirst then the HL CCI turn is confirmation of the reversal and not the first signal I take. Want to see that first clear push away first. Not as I was messing about this morning I am starting to read market structure very clearly lately and if its not clear whats going on I go and look at another trender.

At mo going to BE very quickly like 3 pips which seems ample if theres lots of support at a level, if Fred and Gladys are there then price tends to fly. This will hopefully mean not too many losses going forward.

Starting to qualify my signals better too and cutting losers earlier if expected move support doesn't materialise immediately, thats the great thing about 1 min charts if it is going to trend and theres support at the level then another signal is only minutes away.

I will only be looking for quality setups between the market times you told me about and not outside so only expect a couple of good signals per session. No intention of hitting trade after trade, been there, done that, got the tee shirt.

Looking forward to working with you and I am of the same mind set as you but I will just grab whats trending in the morning and then decide whether to hold or fold with momentum or hld with trend. At the end of the day we could say yep I reckon gbpjpy is going down today but it never appears in top trender so wouldn't trade it.

I see it this way I guess catch the little so and so's first then decide what we're going to do with it, throw it back if its a minnow or take it home and eat it if its a 10 pounder.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #224
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:04am Jun 3, 2014 9:04am
Quoting zalola183
{quote} view screens - ABC works ABCD - not always. Sorry my Anglish (google translate).
Hi Zalola

Ahhh right I get it so you think the ABC move happens a lot but not the final D bit, gottcha.

Ok well yep I agree especailly if you trading a ranging pair that would be true, but here we try to concentrate on the pairs that are trending strongly that way not only do ABCD patterns complete but also momentum indicators work very well too. Have a look at the EURAUD pair that reversed this morning check out the CCI signals they are pretty accurate I think you will agree, all down to strong trending pairs, thats why we have designed and coded our own indy the top 8 trenders that shows the top trending pairs on any timeframe you want to trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud rebeversal works out well.png Size: 75 KB


EDIT Just as a side note the trend has not faltered since the reversal with HHHL's all the way and the first entry would be of been nearly 80 pips up by now. Didn't catch it made a mess then started posting and took my eye off the ball but as you can see from explorer was trying to catch it just very badly. But i am getting closer every time, it won't be long before I will be catching 2 of these a week. Watch this space.

Try it see how you get on.

Cheers Clive.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #top 8 trenders all brokers.ex4   24 KB | 551 downloads
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #225
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:15am Jun 3, 2014 9:15am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Zalola Ahhh right I get it so you think the ABC move happens a lot but not the final D bit, gottcha. Ok well yep I agree especailly if you trading a ranging pair that would be true, but here we try to concentrate on the pairs that are trending strongly that way not only do ABCD patterns complete but also momentum indicators work very well too. Have a look at the EURAUD pair that reversed this...
Just as another aside here, do you see that first entry on the EURAUD pair above well that is a first class sign of a reversal break and retest of the 100sma, absolute classic. Thats one of Freds favourite entries in the whole wide world.

Watch out for it in the future I will be using it a lot.

By the way anything I discuss here works on all timeframes you don't have to be a 1 minute maniac to learn from this thread.

This is just pure price action at its very best, works on all timeframes.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #226
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:25am Jun 3, 2014 9:25am
You seem like a super intelligent person, and your thread proves it. However, 9 days, all in the red? Two weeks of setbacks would make even the hardiest supporter reconsider. Perhaps committing money to your system in this early development phase was a wrong move? Delusions of grandeur are a terrible fate for someone as intelligent as yourself. Perhaps a tactical retreat is in order? More development/testing? Some paper trading on demo? Your stats arent very convincing to a passerby, best wishes..
  • #227
  • Edited 2:35pm Jun 3, 2014 11:09am | Edited 2:35pm
Quoting ch0c
You seem like a super intelligent person, and your thread proves it. However, 9 days, all in the red? Two weeks of setbacks would make even the hardiest supporter reconsider. Perhaps committing money to your system in this early development phase was a wrong move? Delusions of grandeur are a terrible fate for someone as intelligent as yourself. Perhaps a tactical retreat is in order? More development/testing? Some paper trading on demo? Your stats arent very convincing to a passerby, best wishes..
Hi Choc

Thanks for your wise words, thats exactly what I would say looking at my explorer account, but I've set myself my 30 day goal in full public view deliberately, now I can't fail. I think last week and up to now I have been adversely effected by running this thread in more ways than one. Firstly I tried too hard kept hitting entries too soon and then panic traded trying to make up for lost trades, you know all the usual suspects.. And secondly I keep posting when I should be focused on my trading. Well that ain't happening anymore, rest assured.

But here's a thing, if I can now turn this around it would be a great testimony to my discipline, money management and trading ability wouldn't it?? Wouldn't it be a minor miracle to pull this account out of the fire and achieve my goal?? Well its got 2 choices hasn't it?? Either I will or I won't, simple as that. Either the greatest escape or exactly what everyone expected, can't really lose either way can I when you think about it like that?

Like I said to my good friend Ted the other day, if I lose it all, I look like a complete fool, well theres nothing new there. However if I achieve my goal and double my account in a month, then whats to stop me doing it again next month, then the one after that, then the one after that and so on. Until this time next year when I will be a millionaire, living my dream life.

So basically I've next to nothing to lose if I fail and huge gains if I succeed.

Bit like the trades I'm looking for , isn't it?????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #228
  • Edited 5:32pm Jun 3, 2014 5:14pm | Edited 5:32pm
[quote=nogames2014;7508826]Hi Clive, Thanks for starting this thread. ABCD/123 patterns is my kind of trading. I have been following this thread for a while and it has lots of knowledge. Not only the trading bit but also the psychological/emotional part that plays out to be one of the best tools. oops! by the way sorry abt your father's death; kudos he brought you up that way and his teachings are already this valuable.Love your courage to accept your mistake today for a better tomorrow and willingness to learn...no egos

Hi nogames2014

Glad to hear you trade the ABCD pattern too but a bit surprised you just trade the breakout of point B?? The problem I have with breakout trades is that I go to BE very quickly say 3 pips to protect my capital asap, so if the breakout suffers the mandatory retest then I get stopped out at BE only to then sit there and watch my closed trade soar into profit.

As you quite rightly say best way to enter is a pullback entry to point C as usually it is a retest itself (my favorite type of entry) and then soars off never to return so I can safely go to BE at 3 pips. Also if it then breaks out of point B then my BE entry has even more protection from point B's retest. Add to that that you would increase the size of your winners and to be honest its a no brainer, pullbacks everytime for me.

20 pips seems a bit high to me for stops?? Switch broker asap mine VantageFX allow stops and pending orders as close as 3 pips and I can go to BE at the same amount 3 pips. They also allow pretty low opening funds, I just used £100 to open mine. hardly ever endure slippage other than news times. also spreads are incredibly low for all pairs eg most JPY pairs spread 2 to 3.5 pips during market opens, this is handy when trading my top trenders as it doesn't limit you on which pair you can take, just jump on the one that flys out the gate without worrying about spreads too much.

Hope that all helps a bit but would definitely switch brokers if thinking of trading lower timeframes as the spread becomes a major consideration and has huge impact on your profits.

If you get a chance post up your daily review explaining what you are looking at tomz, it might be good if we all tried to identify possible levels where we might expect price to reverse then just watch it on 1 min and if we get a trend reversal jump on its first pullback(ABCD) move.

Many thanks for taking time to post

All the best Clive.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #229
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:10pm Jun 3, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Choc Thanks for your wise words, thats exactly what I would say looking at my explorer account, but I've set myself my 30 day goal in full public view deliberately, now I can't fail. I think last week and up to now I have been adversely effected by running this thread in more ways than one. Firstly I tried too hard kept hitting entries too soon and then panic traded trying to make up for lost trades, you know all the usual suspects.. And secondly I keep posting when I should be focused on my trading. Well that ain't happening anymore,...
HI Clive, reading your note kt looks like you have a lot of ego now tied up. I think you will survive longer if you accept things are not panning out as you wish and stop a while for more testing then resume when / if the method works for you. No one will decry you for doing that, because its just the old adage of cutting your losses and let the profits run.

Whatever you decide best of luck
  • #230
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:40pm Jun 3, 2014 7:40pm
My suggestion is that this method might be more tailored to equities or futures. Forex is a different beast. I have researched this style of trading but all the books were generally from the pre-forex days and some of the magazine articles had equities/futures pinpointed specifically for this trading system (a generalization of course).

You also have nothing to prove to nobody, there is no reason to 'prove' your system works unless you are planning to sell it, and if you are... shame on you! Strategy/black box salespeople are like bad used car salesmen, selling you your dreams, built on a rusted chassis.

Oh yeah, and if you are using server side stops, don't. Smart money says they are broker fodder, they see them, they use them to their advantage by making you lose. Unless you have an ECN/DMA solution or something of the sort.

Best of luck in future. Demo trading is all our friend!
  • #231
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:01am Jun 4, 2014 12:01am
Hi Clive

The last 2 posts both essentially say take care and good luck/best wishes. So deep breath and focus on a method (plan) that you have researched, that works an acceptable % of the time and execute it. As we have said before trading is trend and support/resistance (prices reaction to them) everything else the (crucial) details.
  • #232
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:19am Jun 4, 2014 12:19am
Hi Crabbydog,Choc and my dear friend Vantage,

Great advice guys and I will pay heed to you all.

Many thanks for your wise words.

I'm listening trust me.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #233
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:34am Jun 4, 2014 3:34am
Hi Clive

I'm still in watching mode but this was a great example this morning. GJ nr 1 in your top 8 list. More importantly below the ma's, cc1 210 below -100. You talk of test of 100 ma I'd prefer to look at push below and retest of the session lows around 171.60. But that's a solid 20+ pip trade short term down yes but bigger pic as far as I'm concerned CT. A ma is a line on a chart, the reaction to a SR like today is much more important. So you have the reaction down from a SR level in line with your trade conditions.

Also attached the CM I look at that had gbp the weakest and jpy strongest.

Like I said I'm watching.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpym1.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 14 KB
  • #234
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:54am Jun 4, 2014 3:54am
Been thinking about my overall strategy today and wanted to share my thoughts with you all.

I've been going over my thread and re-reading all of the great posts here. Some of the best traders on FF are posting here and the vast majority are advising me to look at longer term charts rather than the 1 min as a stand alone. Now I'd be a complete fool not to listen wouldn't I??? Also there was a great report released recently by FXCM on what makes a successful retail trader which you would also be an even bigger fool to ignore. Their conclusion was that your winners have to be bigger than your losers. Not too hard to fathom out , I guess, but how do we seek out such setups before they happen?? How do we know which pairs are going to run and which aren't? How do we see into the future??

Well I threw my crystal ball in the dusbin after my appalling explorer results last week, just didn't cut it for me, so what method am I going to use from now on???


Lets combine what my good friends here have been telling me with FXCM's report shall we? Lets think now? To get bigger winners than our losers we need small risk entries holding on the longer timeframes. Hmmm? How about a 1 minute entry with 10 pips risk in the direction of the daily momentum with possibly 100's of pip winners??

That should fit the bill, shouldn't it??

Now how we gonna find those trades???

let me think?????
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #235
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:57am Jun 4, 2014 3:57am
Quoting Vantage
Also attached the CM I look at that had gbp the weakest and jpy strongest. Like I said I'm watching. {image} {image}
Which Currency Meter (CM) is, you guys think the most accurate/valid? Or they are just pretty much the same?

Regards,

-RR
i worshipped... Momentum
  • #236
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:58am Jun 4, 2014 3:58am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Clive I'm still in watching mode but this was a great example this morning. GJ nr 1 in your top 8 list. More importantly below the ma's, cc1 210 below -100. You talk of test of 100 ma I'd prefer to look at push below and retest of the session lows around 171.60. But that's a solid 20+ pip trade short term down yes but bigger pic as far as I'm concerned CT. A ma is a line on a chart, the reaction to a SR like today is much more important. So you have the reaction down from a SR level in line with your trade conditions. Also attached the CM I look...
And like I said I'm listening.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #237
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:21am Jun 4, 2014 4:21am
Quoting rockrobb
{quote} Which Currency Meter (CM) is, you guys think the most accurate/valid? Or they are just pretty much the same? Regards, -RR
All I can say Rob is that as a standalone thing for me its not tradeable, simply because they work until they reverse and the numbers start running in the opposite direction. But when they agree with 'other' trading methodology then it can be used to filter a pair to pick. The post I made above a great example.
  • #238
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:40am Jun 4, 2014 4:40am
Quoting clivepackham
Been thinking about my overall strategy today and wanted to share my thoughts with you all. I've been going over my thread and re-reading all of the great posts here. Some of the best traders on FF are posting here and the vast majority are advising me to look at longer term charts rather than the 1 min as a stand alone. Now I'd be a complete fool not to listen wouldn't I??? Also there was a great report released recently by FXCM on what makes a successful retail trader which you would also be an even bigger fool to ignore. Their conclusion...
Hi Clive

Your method must be written down that you can understand, back test that if it seems that you are onto something that will work and repeat real time going forward. A problem is the top 8 (and the currency meter I use also applies) you cannot go back and see what it was.

What do you have on any chart, your standard pa that cannot change such as SR levels (break of and reaction to). Your ma's are there and your cc1 is there. Your trade requirements could be:

- ABC pattern
- Price below both ma's for sells, above both for buys
- CCI 210 to have hit -100 for sell, +100 for buy (I said hit not below/above they are 2 different things 210 could hit -100 retrace slightly higher and not quite be below when trade triggers but at least you can check the rule)
- HA bar colour change
- Your 14 CCI entry rule (change of colour or smaller bar in direction of trend)

You could have a few basic set ups that repeat within your trade rules. You mentioned the retest of 100 ma, could be price breaking through ma's for change of trend, could be price breaking out of a session range and retest of break level, failure of a SR level on bigger pic (which gj was today). Could be a trend continuation eg pre US open price drifted for an hour or two then reverted to trend from Lon session. If you feel that trend resumption needs lesser conditions (perhaps not reaching -100 cci 210 before selling fine but research it). What these basic set ups will have in common is that once you see them starting to form its now the waiting game for your trade rules to be ticked off 1 by 1 to enter. Its not about capturing every move (you won't and its not possible and as you have heard from others where most trade every signal systems fail, especially off 1 min) but getting a researched edge that you can get a higher probability success rate and a higher RR than 1 - 1. The research gives you the confidence in your system, that you have an edge and can wait for rules to be complied with.

PS the above rules I suggested, its your system your rules they are just examples, change or add to them as you see fit. Just have them written down cast in stone, research them and once that's done only change for ideas that you can factually show improves the method.
  • #239
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:41am Jun 4, 2014 4:41am
Quoting rockrobb
{quote} Which Currency Meter (CM) is, you guys think the most accurate/valid? Or they are just pretty much the same? Regards, -RR
Hi rockrobb

Well they are all based on a similar idea, they compare each currency in one way or another and because the currencies are all related to each other it must logically show you which pair is the strongest. Well that's the theory. Now I don't know how they are all coded but the one on my screen is based on MA's you choose the MA that you like. I use the 100 because its used by traders world wide so has a chance of being relative indicative of what they are trading so therefore whats going on.

The CSM that I use was coded by my good friend Ted so I know exactly how that one works.

We look at every pair (28 in total) and if price is above 100sma the base currency scores a point if below the second currency scores a point eg If GBPUSD's price is above 100sma then GBP scores 1 and USD 0. We add up the scores at the end of the sweep and the pair with 7 is top dog, its beating all the others, the pair with 0 is the weakest as its having the crap beaten out of it by all the others.They are ranked 1 to 8 accordingly top currency being the strongest bottom currency being the weakest.

The idea is to only trade the top 3 against the bottom 3 or even better top dog against bottom dog. Should give you an edge but, and its quite a big BUT. Be aware that pairs constantly reverse, caused frequently by guys banking thier money after a good run. Basically what goes up has gotta come down at some time, its the way the market works!

Like all indys its just that, an indicator not the Holy Grail, always, always check the chart for signs of weakening before following the strongest/weakest.

The indy I described up above is attached.

As for which is best?? Guess thats all about trial and error and what works best for you? Try em all out let us know what you think.

Hope that helps Clive.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #CSW 1 min scalper v2.ex4   10 KB | 519 downloads
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #240
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:54am Jun 4, 2014 4:54am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Hi Clive Your method must be written down that you can understand, back test that if it seems that you are onto something that will work and repeat real time going forward. A problem is the top 8 (and the currency meter I use also applies) you cannot go back and see what it was. What do you have on any chart, your standard pa that cannot change such as SR levels (break of and reaction to). Your ma's are there and your cc1 is there. Your trade requirements could be: - ABC pattern - Price below both ma's for sells, above both for buys - CCI...
I'm still listening and thinking

I am working on a strategy you might like based around your 8LWMA. Will post it up shortly.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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