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AUD/USD

  • #78,561
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:25am Jun 3, 2014 9:25am
Quoting nealpek
we'll see if pa can penetrate the low of the accum bar...4 tick stop.if i'm wrong its only money!! {image}
Too early. After 10:00 EST
  • #78,562
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:37am Jun 3, 2014 9:37am
ken, any relevant bs, i mean news coming out?
  • #78,563
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:49am Jun 3, 2014 9:49am
Quoting nealpek
ken, any relevant bs, i mean news coming out?
A/U won't go anywhere until GDP this evening

Typical A/U behavior - if it goes down is to go up (positive data) and the reverse is true.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #78,564
  • Jun 3, 2014 10:26am Jun 3, 2014 10:26am
Quote
That has led some economists, such as those at Citi, to cut their economic growth forecasts - in that case from 0.9 per cent to 0.6 per cent for the quarter, or around 2.9 per cent for the year to March 31.
However, many economists had previously forecast a GDP result around 3.2 per cent, which would have had annual growth back around average levels, at least for a short while.
A bright spot in today's data was a 3.1 per cent rise in company gross operating profits over the March quarter.
Profit growth was strongest in administrative and support...

Could come up with a red number just saying i,m staying out since yesterday news got reversed after release
Heed the lessons of failure.
  • #78,565
  • Jun 3, 2014 12:14pm Jun 3, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting diggo
Afternoon gentlemen. I am quoting a couple of posts of mine from April 29/May 1, 2013 here (when the Aussie was around 1.03). The reason I am posting is because history may be about to repeat itself.. {quote} {quote} They say the best way to predict the future, is to look at the past. I would encourage you to pull up a Gold chart next to an AUD chart. It speaks for itself. Prequel, is the word I like to use. Gold dropped her panties again last week. Silver has also obliged on a lower scale. This will have a flow on effect for the Aussie. The key...
if you will use xauusd chart as aguide to trade audusd you must analyse xauaud chart
i look too much to these three charts to trade audusd but i think that audusd no more following xauusd like last year or may be this is right only in short term trading but for long term trading may be xauusd still a guide to trade audusd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #78,566
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:22pm Jun 3, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting mesi99
{quote} if you will use xauusd chart as aguide to trade audusd you must analyse xauaud chart i look too much to these three charts to trade audusd but i think that audusd no more following xauusd like last year or may be this is right only in short term trading but for long term trading may be xauusd still a guide to trade audusd {image}
I've got some ideas on this I'm working on. It might take a little time. It depends on how you look at the chart IMO.

there is:

- WHAT happens
- WHY it happens
- WHAT needs to happen because it happened

...in that order.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #78,567
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:49pm Jun 3, 2014 2:49pm
I think we are at a watershed moment for the AUD. This GDP is going to be the high point for the year. And it is going to miss. Even the current account report, which was positive for GDP, will not be able to offset the fall in inventories. Increased corporate profits were not based on production, but inventory draw downs and increased efficiencies, not on increased production. These type of profits will not help GDP. Also, retail sales and new construction have fallen significantly since the 4th quarter. I don't see how first quarter 2014 GDP (consensus 0.9) can possibly beat fourth quarter 2013 GDP (0.8). I think it is a downhill ride for the AUD for the rest of the year.

I don't recommend trying to position yourself prior to the GDP news release, because there can always be unexpected surprises, but I am going to be prepared to trade a big move after GDP numbers are released (AUD/USD). If GDP comes in at 0.6 or 0.7, there will be a very significant move based on increased odds of RBA cutting rates sooner than expected. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see this as a potentially big money making opportunity (continuing over a period of days to weeks). Good potential swing trade.
  • #78,568
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:49pm Jun 3, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Sun-Trader
AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD AUD
she got nice attitude
  • #78,569
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:10pm Jun 3, 2014 3:10pm
Yes , Need to grab some pips from GDP release only.
30 min chart how i read it.
Attached Image
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,570
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:10pm Jun 3, 2014 3:10pm
Just in case you haven't seen the ultimate long signal coming out of CNBS.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101724981
  • #78,571
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:12pm Jun 3, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting Zircon
Yes , Need to grab some pips from GDP release only. 30 min chart how i read it. {image}
follow 30 min chart,am gonna see how PA develop until the release, the trick is 61.8 level.

let see.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,572
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:03pm Jun 3, 2014 6:03pm
The 200 Day EMA on the AUDUSD has hold the price pretty well, but there is no clear entry until it breaks this level to the downside or the 0.9300 to the upside.
  • #78,573
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:27pm Jun 3, 2014 6:27pm
No one seems to post live trades before the facts

There will be abundance after and to quote their own posts
  • #78,574
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:36pm Jun 3, 2014 6:36pm
Quoting Ken A
No one seems to post live trades before the facts There will be abundance after and to quote their own posts
i am taking break from aud for now ... everyone know about mine .915 obsession but im not going there right now . Have buy limits in that area if it EVER GONNA HAPPEN
  • #78,575
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:53pm Jun 3, 2014 6:53pm
Hi guys any analysis for HSI?
  • #78,576
  • Edited 8:03pm Jun 3, 2014 6:55pm | Edited 8:03pm
Quoting mesi99
{quote} if you will use xauusd chart as aguide to trade audusd you must analyse xauaud chart i look too much to these three charts to trade audusd but i think that audusd no more following xauusd like last year or may be this is right only in short term trading but for long term trading may be xauusd still a guide to trade audusd {image}
Hi Messi,

I do keep an eye on the xauaud chart. Of course the two cannot be perfectly matched as there are just so many unique factors that will effect one or the other. However you will notice of late that Gold moves first and we have a flow-on effect into the aud/usd 3 or 4 weeks later. Particularly when when break a major support. For a currency which relies quite heavily on commodities, the commodity prices cannot be ignored.

Moreover my fundamental analysis of the aud/usd is medium to long term bearish and when I see commodities take a take it certainly is an extra confirmation signal for me. Also take note of the RBA statement this month, Glenn Stevens dropped a small hint "The exchange rate remains high by historical standards, particularly given the further decline in commodity prices."

In the short term we could have a couple of more chances to short above .93 but a sharper move below the .92 support is inevitable IMO which should see us pretty quickly sub .90 again
  • #78,577
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:03pm Jun 3, 2014 7:03pm
Quoting Zircon
{quote} follow 30 min chart,am gonna see how PA develop until the release, the trick is 61.8 level. let see.

Looks sell to me? , 3 candles left till release, no trade for me.
Attached Image
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,578
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:05pm Jun 3, 2014 7:05pm
What do you see K?
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,579
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:11pm Jun 3, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting Barca
Hi guys any analysis for HSI?
My long from early May hit target. Looking to long on retrace. Probably should keep the long position open. Things are picking up in China so don't have conviction to go short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 27 KB


Quoting Zircon
What do you see K?
Tricky. It probably will miss expectation but not much.
  • #78,580
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:21pm Jun 3, 2014 7:21pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} My long from early May hit target. Looking to long on retrace. Probably should keep the long position open. Things are picking up in China so don't have conviction to go short. {image} {quote} Tricky. It probably will miss expectation but not much.
Hi Ken, what is your take on the effect of Iron Ore prices?
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