Davit's Confluence Trading

Hm, I do not know if you can generalize that. Otherwise, people like Schickeria could not trade and he says that he does not give a damn about news.

If you are scalping true 10-15pips but 50-100pips range needs some kind of fundemetal direction.

Of course we are all "waiting" for it. But just because I'm waiting for it doesn't mean I have to understand it. It will come and go without me knowing anymore then, than I did before it. But I can still follow price from a TA perspective afterward.

So in your opinion, I should stop trading all together then?

Perhaps it might be better said that "good" TA traders can trade without FA. And "great" TA traders use FA as well. I think knowing both is best, but not necessary.

Yeah, but he for example is not only scalping. I think also noticing some news, but not really giving them priority over technicals.

Guys my example was on NU in general illustrating that keeping up to date what is going on fundamentally will enhance your trading method whatever that may be.I use TA my BB system is TA based but I use discretion and discretion is fundemetally based.
Not saying your method is invalid.I can only speak for me and my results.I am sure they are vast number of traders losing shit load of money trading TA unsuccessfully.
You have more experience and you use discretion even if you are not aware.
Regards

Oh I'm not questioning what you say about enhancing it for sure brother. I wish I did understand it all. But absent of that understanding, I can still trade. I agree 100% with your view of discretion too. Recognizing my own limits in the FA area, my discretion comes down to, 1) Don't open any trades around major news events. 2) If I have any open ones, they better be at least 100 in profit or close them out and wait. So, I'm aware of it. Even scared actually...lol

Not disputing (or arguing) what you say at all buddy. Just offering some conversation based on a perspective from the other side.

Morning all,
Rangebound. This is what I'm seeing.

Agree
Just to add we are in compression stage on all pairs.What may follow could be explosive and best to wait for good opportunities otherwise now would be purely guessing.That is true for EU and GU
June 5th ECB will set the stage.My take is Mario does nothing Euro jumps 3740 and everyone sells the crap out of it down to 1.35
GU to 68-6840 same scenerio
Have not taken any trades in June yet.

Sounds like a good plan. It's not hard to imagine him keeping his guns holstered and the panic that would ensue.

Sometimes best trade is the one you did not take

Marty Schwarz champion trader was asked what was his best trade (made millions in markets starting with 50k)
He said when he took a loss of 300k what could of been over 10million loss.

So when we look at our losses most often we got in too early.Direction might of been right but too early.

I just read another thread someone finally seeing some light in trading after struggling 11 years...
To me that's somewhat uninspiring.If we take every loss as learning experience then we can exhilarate our learning curve dramatically.

On mistakes
We are programmed in our lives never to fail,don't make mistakes etc. In trading mistakes are gifts lessons to learn.
Why am I so convinced to wait now then before? Because I paid dearly in real money being early.

From Hedge Fund Wizards (great book to read)

The Man Who Loves Mistakes

Ray Dalio is the founder, CIO, former CEO, and current mentor (the title he assumed in July 2011) of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund.
As of December 2011, Bridgewater had $120 billion in assets under management and more than 1,400 employees. Bridgewater is unique in many
ways beyond its size:
It has made more money for its investors than any other hedge fund in history—an estimated $50 billion over the past 20 years.
Bridgewater’s flagship fund has a near zero correlation to traditional markets.
Bridgewater’s flagship fund also has a very low correlation to other hedge funds.
The flagship fund uses the relatively rare combination of a fundamentally based systematic approach. (Most hedge funds that are
fundamentally based use a discretionary approach, and most hedge funds that use systematic approaches base them on technical input.)
Bridgewater fosters an unusual corporate culture that encourages criticism among employees, regardless of rank.
Virtually all of Bridgewater’s business is institutional (95 percent institutional, 5 percent fund of funds).
Bridgewater is among a small minority of funds with a 20-year track record.
Bridgewater was the first hedge fund to create separate alpha and beta funds that could be combined in any mix desired by the client.
The track record for Bridgewater’s flagship strategy encompasses both managed accounts and funds, with each trading at multiple target
volatility levels and multiple currencies. The 18 percent volatility strategy has achieved an average annual compounded net return of 14.8 percent
(22.3 percent gross) over a near 20-year period, with an annualized standard deviation of 14.6 percent (16.0 percent on gross return data). The
most impressive aspect of Bridgewater’s performance has been the firm’s ability to generate strong returns on huge assets under management. It
is one thing for a hedge fund strategy to achieve strong return/risk performance on $50 million, or $500 million, or even $5 billion, but to do so on
$50 billion is truly astounding. (Fifty billion dollars is the approximate assets under management Bridgewater had in its Pure Alpha strategy during
2010 when it recorded its highest annual return ever.)
Ray Dalio is a big picture thinker. Question: What one word might best describe Dalio’s view of an economic model based on a thorough
analysis of the entire 67-year post–World War II U.S. economy? Answer: Myopic. Dalio describes his approach as “timeless and universal.” He
believes an economic model should encompass multiple times and countries. Bridgewater employs a fundamentally based computer model that
incorporates trading rules gleaned from both Dalio’s four decades of market observations as well as Bridgewater’s analysis of markets going back
hundreds of years and spanning a broad range of developed and emerging economies.
Dalio named his flagship fund Pure Alpha to differentiate it from the majority of hedge funds he considers primarily beta vehicles. Dalio has been
critical of hedge funds that derive most of their return from beta, but charge the higher fees associated with hedge funds on their entire return, even
though the beta-derived portion can be duplicated by passive long investments. Beta measures how much an investment varies given changes in a
benchmark market (e.g., S&P 500). Essentially, beta-based returns are returns that are earned by assuming various risks, most commonly market
direction risk.1 In contrast, alpha refers to skill-based returns, which by definition are not correlated to any market or risk factor. The name of
Bridgewater’s flagship fund, Pure Alpha, leaves little doubt as to the type of return it seeks to capture. True to its name, Pure Alpha has had near
zero correlation to equities and fixed income and very low correlation (0.10) to hedge funds.
Bridgewater also has a beta-based strategy, All Weather, which has an objective of delivering beta returns in a portfolio mix that is balanced so
that it will do well in different market environments. In 2009, Bridgewater launched All Weather II, which is a constrained version of All Weather that
limits “safe” environment investments when the firm’s “depression gauge” indicator is activated.
The idea that the same fundamentals would have different implications under different circumstances and environments is an essential
component of Dalio’s analytical thinking. As a result, categorization is an important tool for both conceptualizing problems and finding solutions.
One example of category-based thinking is what I would call quadrant conceptualization—two key factors and two states provide four possible
conditions. Bridgewater’s beta fund, the All Weather Fund, provides an example of this type of thinking. The fund combines two factors—growth
and inflation—and two states—increasing and decreasing—and comes up with four conditions:
1. Growth increasing
2. Growth decreasing
3. Inflation increasing
4. Inflation decreasing
Th is four-part categorization reflects Dalio’s view that changes in expected growth and expected inflation are the dominant reasons that some
asset classes do well when others do poorly. The fund’s strategy is to balance the portfolio with investments that do well in each of the above four
environments. In contrast, most conventional portfolios substantially overweight assets that do well in the first category (i.e., growth-increasing
environment), leading to unbalanced portfolios that can do poorly in other types of environments.
Another example of quadrant conceptualization is the way Dalio categorizes the economic outlook for different countries. Here he divides the
world into two types of countries—creditors and debtors—and he defines two key distinguishing characteristics for each—countries that can
exercise independent monetary policy and those that can’t. So there are four classifications of countries:
1. Debtor countries with independent monetary policy (e.g., U.S., U.K.).
2. Debtor countries without independent monetary policy (e.g., Greece, Portugal).
3. Creditor countries with independent monetary policy (e.g., Brazil).
4. Creditor countries without independent monetary policy (e.g., China because it pegs its currency to the dollar, which impedes its ability to
raise interest rates).
Dalio loves mistakes because he believes that mistakes provide learning experiences that are the catalyst for improvement. The concept that
mistakes are the path to progress is one of the pillars of Dalio’s life philosophy and the Bridgewater culture. Dalio is almost reverential in his
comments about mistakes:
I learned that there is an incredible beauty to mistakes because embedded in each mistake is a puzzle and a gem that I could get if I solved it,
i.e., a principle that I could use to reduce my mistakes in the future. I learned that each mistake was probably a reflection of something that I
was (or others were) doing wrong, so if I could figure out what that was, I could learn how to be more effective. . . . While most others seem to
believe that mistakes are bad things, I believe mistakes are good things because I believe that most learning comes via making mistakes and
reflecting on them.

Nice line. I think I heard that in a video Marty Schwarz -there’s inspiration in the tales of the market wizards.
11 years that’s a slog but if that’s what it takes. It’s been a tough road to get where I am today in trading and I’m by no means a great trader yet but I’ve improved and jumped a few hurdles. The freedom it promises is important to me and that’s why I do it.

I think my trading improved tremendously once I understood the value of patience
By getting in at the most opportune time you are adding more edge to your side.That's the whole concept of harmonics.

If you have not read this article please do.
What Crocodiles Can Teach You About Trading

"
Think of the crocodile…he’s big, fat, long and needs A LOT of protein in his diet to survive, to swim and to hunt. Is his energy best spent going around all day eating little bait fish which are easy to catch? Imagine how much energy he would expend trying to catch a high quantity of low-quality prey like that all day. If you have ever seen these crocodiles like I have in person, you will understand what I am saying; crocs are designed and have evolved to be patient “sniper” hunters…many little meals do not interest them as much as a big juicy nourishing meal does.
By trading less… our aim is to make a nice large “meaty” size trade that sustains us until our next trade. Sure we may have a few losses along the way to our big prize, but the goal here remains clear; waiting on the sidelines (or the shores of the river like the crocodile) to pounce on our prey and cop a huge nourishing meal. We don’t want to be running all over the pond or river looking for any small piece of meat or fish that we can find…we are going to wait it out and score ourselves a nice big juicy profitable trade"

It seems to me that the art of trading to find your style/strategy whatever it is and to trade it noise free and in the zone effortlessly. FF I see as the nursery where trader can grow and learn and toughen the mind. With every increase in stake comes extra amounts of pressure that will put our trust in ourselves to the test. Small steps is the way for me. Pushing up and getting comfortable/finding my hygge and then pushing again. I don't think there are any short cuts. This is a serious skill of the mind.

My mentor has an amazing ability to pull money from the market. He has his process and trades it like a machine. I dare say you could tweak his system to make it more efficient but he’s happy enough to take the losers as they come. Doesn’t bother him. Just trades, set his stops etc and lets the market work. He doesn’t fiddle or tinker once the trade is on and doesn’t look until his beeper wakes him from his massage chair. Apart from nfp day which he loves he doesn't pay attention to news. His view is that some you win some you lose but mostly he wins. He shows how simple can it can be. He makes a lot of money. He’s a dude.

Wow! Great reading in here this morning. Thank you folks. I couldn't agree more with all of it. Should all be posted in the new trader section as well.

nice contributions guys thank you

short GU
6762 2x

Morning Davit,
Here's my latest on GU. I expect you're right about higher levels waiting until after Draghi so probably a short here will pay off.

just scalping
closed at 52
+20pips 10pips each on 2positions
Morning Lalu
I am going to bed again.Very tired
See you guys later