Trading is as simple as ABCD

Thanks Vantage and albchr for your advice I had sort of targeted that level too on the hourly 27th May peak but also because of this mornings trade when I ignored the faltering price action, I thought to myself I'm not giving this back today so when I saw the failed push I closed out for 11.7 pips which of course I am pleased with as 11.7 is better than nothing and thats exactly what I would of got if I had held.

Problem is its not a very good RR as I risk 10 pips on every trade but then if momentum fails you have to re consider don't you? Also I am sure I will soon catch a London or New York breakout with the 1 min trend holding up.

But heres the great news thanks to some great advice from Vantage and co I have managed to make 11.7% today not too bad but needs to improve for sure.

Thanks again guys.

I'm getting there.

Breakout this time but at BE again so no risk.

Hmmmm out for BE thats why I prefer pullback entries to breakouts, I got to BE at 3 pips to protect my capital but on breakout entries get knocked out at BE very often.

Probably best to wait for the pullbacks with my tight BE move but hey didn't lose and its looking a bit bid right now so can't be bad.

You can only take what the market gives you. Not saying the ej move is over but another day that same kind of trade will just power up. The idea that if London morning has done nothing then US will is obvious and will work frequently.

On the idea of BE trades yes that will happen very often with pairs like gbpaud and euraud so you have to develop your trade strategy around that. Half out at +10 or more stop to -5 etc etc whatever you decide on. Or accept BE's as part of the game. Or say +11% on a crappy day will have to do, trying to say that with a straight face.

I don't look at gbpcad but if you did your analysis on D chart etc etc would you say this was a CT scalp trade, if yes, what profit would you be happy with considering the moves so far today?

As mentioned before the profit expectations of a scalp v a trend trade.

Hi vantage

Yep a pleasing day today because if I had taken say 15 pips out of my mornings trade I would be 26% up and like you say on a "crappy day" too, bodes well for a good day doesn't it?

Can I ask for some clarification on what you meant by "As mentioned before the profit expectations of a scalp v a trend trade" .

I assume you mean hold if its with the daily trend and scalp if against the daily trend? but can I ask what do you actually mean by the daily trend?

Do you mean the current days trend eg its current momentum or the overall trend of the daily pair.eg whats happened over last 20 days??

Thanks in advance for your answer.

Lets call a trend trade where the D has given a strong signal that it may move in a specific direction the next day. It could take 3 - 7 days for a genuine D change of trend (or resumption of trend) to properly show in the D chart. Whether it be a D engulfing candle, a D lower high/higher low (with a small wick in the direction of expected move). Heres 3 charts, will they all work, of course not, but you only need one or two of these a month to follow through to dramatically improve your results.

Then if you get in early in the move on the day that follows such candles you'd be looking to let your trades run a bit.

Instead of me reinventing the posts have a look at:

http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/11/trading-101.html
http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html
http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/0...of-method.html
http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/1...ulti-time.html

This will give an idea about what we see as trend and the days that follow getting tight entries and trying to let run for a very high RR.

[quote=Vantage;7506863]Instead of me reinventing the posts have a look at: http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/11/trading-101.html http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/0...of-method.html

Thanks Mr Vantage

I will study your thread, blog and the advice you have been giving me today and let you know how I get on.

Gotta get back out to work again now.

Catch up later.

Cheers Clive.

hello ... thanks for the thread.. I am wondering what the indy is that has vertical coloured l;ins showing different market opens? Thanks

Dear Mr Vantage

I have read the links to your bloggs you posted here and I like what you're doing with the 8lwma especially as that ties in very much with the Hieken ashi candles that I use, apparently an 8lwma cross coincides with a Hieken ashi candle colour change. Makes sense when you think about it as HA candles basically signify a return to momentum in that direction and if thats back with the trend then HA colour changes could be used as a signal candle that the momentum has turned back with the trend.

Plus as you rightly pointed out you could expect 6 or 7 candles after that back with the trend and sure enough if the 100lwma is sloping up most Ha colour changes in that direction will be followed by 6 or 7 of the same colour. Even better I noticed that if you then get a colour change back the other way (counter trend) its a signal candle to exit the trade if its taken out by next candle, so hey presto we have a new entry and exit setup!!!

It captures the momentum runs quite beautifully and in many cases the counter trend candle doesn't get taken out and the trend continues for another half a dozen candles or so. Basically HA candles are a momentum indicator and I want to just capture the momentum move and thats it, can't trust pullbacks to return to the trend too often can we???

In fact if the higher timeframes have HA candles of the same colour we could just move our trades up a higher timeframe as they proceed and hold until the higher time frame HA candle changes colour.

Anyway I am going to give it a go by capturing whatever move the London and New York opens throw at me and see how it goes. Once I am in a trade quickly look up to next timeframe and if HA candle same colour just hold on that.

Its the same as your trading 8lwma crossovers just using HA candles instead.

Well I will give it a go tomoz see how I get on?

Like I say it can only go up or down so green HA's we're up red HA's we're going down.

Hi Kwood

Yep it sure is, here you go.

Hi Zalola183

Sorry but struggling to understand what you are saying, your English is very good but I am struggling to grasp your meaning and I am ashamed to say my Russian is none existent .

Sorry.

Hi Clive

Just wondering, you've had 3 euraud trades, I don't see it on your top 8 list at the moment. But gj has been top for some time and running in line with the D and 1hr (admittedly pushing into D SR levels), any reason why you weren't targeting gj?

I Clive a question
my setting is 15min and 1day
when i see in the top a pair red(Day) and the same pair green long(15min) is right to go short in order to consider 15min a retrachement?
thanks

Hi Clive
Sent you a pm pls have a look when you have a chance.
Cheers.

Hi Clive,
Thanks for starting this thread. ABCD/123 patterns is my kind of trading. I have been following this thread for a while and it has lots of knowledge. Not only the trading bit but also the psychological/emotional part that plays out to be one of the best tools. oops! by the way sorry abt your father's death; kudos he brought you up that way and his teachings are already this valuable.Love your courage to accept your mistake today for a better tomorrow and willingness to learn...no egos

Though i recently signed up to ff as a member, i have been following it on the sideways and didnt think it had alot to offer....with various posts from whoever..haha.
Thank God i blew my account 3 times; most recently in Feb 2014 with Martingale EAs. Its then i realised i had to figure out why? The more i followed threads here on forex factory, the more guys were pointing out why i failed and tried to offer solutions. Guys were advising forex courses but each day i read more about forex for free online,step by step i realised i was getting somewhere..didnt need to spend my money on a course.
I have been following various threads here and feel am well equipped with the basics. I prefer trading nakedhaha(without indicators ; wish it were possible), with 123/abcd patterns,S/R levels

Now back to business, Believe it is a matter of time for you to prosper with this strategy. It has the basic recipe(hope your MM is on pt as well), as VintageFX said;have a bigger picture of the market at day close and do your analysis.Then trade according to your analysis with the bigger trend having in mind the S/R levels for reversals(use as exits) but keep in mind other intraday levels ie fibos,pivots, Intraday S/R as TP/exit levels (guess u already know that)
So u already gat the BASICS...why then not succeed?? So, OUR STRATEGY needs the EDGE which is when to enter and exit our trades;;;HOLYGRAIL
A suggestion:
Assume our day analysis tells us to buy the next day. We go to the HR chart and point out higher lows to buy at.These may require many hrs to form a rvs pattern...so i basically look out for a hammer hr close at a forming Higher low(retracement). I love it when it closes above 8lmwa or touching it. Then i draw a vertical line throuth that candle and go to either 15m or 5m chart to see where it forms. Iam looking for a swing low to be my pt A (in most cases its at that same candle in 15m but u alwz get a lower close in 5 min) I look out for a move up to a higher swing(prefer atleast 20 pips) as my pt B. Then look out at a higher low(in relation to A) as my point C....if its a lower low from B, i nullify that set up. It its a higher low, i wait for a break of pt B form C for me to enter a buy. My stop is at C...I noticed these set ups complete quicker on 5m for an entry but may not hold hence being stopped out....so i advise u wait for a complete set up in 15m to come up(dnt chase the market) .Thou the cons are that 5min gives a better rr ratio for ranging markets when you need to scalp. I prefer trade major currencies with tight spreads so that i easily go to BE. I dont put tp on my trades, i kip trailin my stop below each candle close on 5min but dont hold it too tight for possible retracements...getting to BE ASAP helps emotions not to get in and sticking to yo trading plan is key.i exit wen i notice tails and its esp on these intraday levels..so alws expect a struggle at these pts and avoid tryin too hard EXIT and look elsewea for other setups....try neva to give up yo profit however small it may be(u can do this on setups in hr charts in trend direction as stops hv enough room to breath)
The problem i have is...i dont want to wait for the break of B for me to enter a trade...early entry at C would be a good entry as it improves my RR ratio but my broker doesnt allow tight stops less than 20 pips...Anyway its all the same as well at the break....de rule still applies hehe Will consider taking trades at C but with only your trending pairs...guess this will reduce on fake outs......may pyramid up at break and look out for two trades along on the ship.....trail them till we cant risk enmore.....your Histogram will be of much importance as well.......Just wish what trends are the majors
This ABCD stuff works...u jst hv to hv tight stops and realise small loses are part of this strategy...good analysis and trend following...ts just a matter of time to catch the long distance ship....We slamming Bentley doors n Poppin up on Forbes list..hehehe

Sorry Guys, its alot but thats it from me....hope it helps someone out there !
TOGETHER WE CAN!

Top of the morning to you sir,

Well the simple answer is I took some advice from one of your posts yesterday "Guys like Islander focus largely on the reversals that takeplace in and around Frankies hour (Frankfurt open) and LO" and decided I would look for a reversal this morning rather than a straight forward 1 min trend, London breakout trade, so I thought to myself which chart pair will I look for a reversal on???

Oh I know as I am looking for a reversal on a 1min I will look at the top trender on the 5 min as after a strong move down will usually be followed by a reversal of maybe 70% of the move down?? Therefore giving me a high probability of a good RR. Does that make sense so far??

So I had a look at my top 8 5 min trenders and try to pick one thats looking a bit reversable and try to buy its first Higher Low.

This is snap shot of top trenders at the time. There you will see EURAUD top of 5 min I also had a quick sell as it also gave me a LH cci sell signal but stopped out at BE which encouraged me to look for the reversal and took next HL but not a very good one didn't even go over -100 level.

Of course whilst I was doing all that the GBP pairs came flying to the top of the top trenders but I wasn't even looking!!! Too busy following "The old bulls advice" Ha Ha only kidding. I forgive you.

Anyway there's nothing to forgive, it took so long for me to post it heres the EURAUD reversal worked perfectly, there's life in the old bull yet.



But as always I should try and learn from the whole experience and heres what I'm thinking, now you're not going to like this, but I reckon I have just got to focus on my top 8 trenders and just trade the 1 min trends that set up from it and concentrate on getting a nice safe entry. Then check out what I've caught. If it looks like its a trender then just trade the 1 min trend until it ends simple as that. Gonna be loads of false starts with lots of BE's I'm sure and hopefully not too many losers, but if I do catch a trend (runner) then the resulting RR should make up for any losers.

Now here's my reasoning behind that, all I can do is just catch whatever London and New York throw at me, thats all I can do, once I've caught it have a quick look as to what I've caught. Maybe its a reversal?? maybe its a continuation on the 15min, maybe I've bought a great daily level?? Who knows what it will be all I will know is I caught something that's moving fast and they are nippy little so and so's , so I have to move fast too if I wanna catch em. I have to have my focus and concentration at a peak and be ready to move fast as the market changes and my top 8 trenders keep switching around.

So thats what I am gonna do, just concentrate on the 1 min top trenders and nothing else, I am not interested in the higher timeframes in any shape or form until after I've caught the little whipper snapper, then I will trade my catch as best I can.

Now this is not a snap decision, I've been trading forex for 5 long years now and I've tried every which way but loose. I've tried every strategy known to man, long term, short term, breakouts, pullbacks, counter trades , trend trades, Fibonacci , Elliot wave,crystal balls, toss of a coin,etc etc you name it, I've tried it. Well no more, now its my turn. Now I'm gonna trade these markets the way I see it. Do you want to know how I see it?? Do you want to know what the Forex market is all about?? Well whether you do or you don't I'm gonna tell you anyway.


Its all about the money!! Its money we're trading, one countrys money against another countrys money and as we all know its the money that drives these markets, nothing else, its all about the money, whoose money??? Not mine or yours Mr vantage, but the banks, you know good old Fred and Gladys, thats who control this market and best we never forget that.

So how do we win at Forex??? Simple, follow the MONEY!!!

So all I am going to do is jump on dear old Fred and Gladys shirt tails and hold on tight until I'm shaken off.

How???

I am going to trade the 1 minute trend as a stand alone at market opens until I catch something, you see , I believe I am just trading the money as it comes to or leaves the table. This way all I have to think about is catching that top 1 minute trender, all i have to focus on is the 1 minute timeframe and the ABCD pattern, just trade the 1 minute trend until it ends. Just gonna buy every HL in an uptrend and sell every LH in a downtrend, let my winners run and cut my losers early.And thats it folks!!! As simple as that!!!

Now I said simple, not easy!!!

It sounds simple enough but it sure as hell ain't easy!! But I am gonna give it a go!! And whats more I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is!!

So I have set myself my own personal 30 day goal and here it is.

"I will trade £500 of my own money and double it to £1,000

in the next 30 days on my trade explorer for all to see."

Well thats it, job done, I've said it now and I shall either make myself look like a complete fool or £500!!!!

Please feel free to follow along and post as you see fit but please don't tell me "it can't be done" because if you do this is what you're see.

It Couldn’t Be Done

Somebody said that it couldn’t be done,

But, he with a chuckle replied

That "maybe it couldn’t," but he would be one

Who wouldn’t say so till he’d tried.

So he buckled right in with the trace of a grin

On his face. If he worried he hid it.

He started to sing as he tackled the thing

That couldn’t be done, and he did it.

Somebody scoffed: "Oh, you’ll never do that

At least no one has done it"

But he took off his coat and he took off his hat,

And the first thing we knew he’d begun it.

With a lift of his chin and a bit of a grin,

Without any doubting or quiddit,

He started to sing as he tackled the thing

That couldn’t be done, and he did it.

There are thousands to tell you it cannot be done,

There are thousands to prophesy failure

There are thousands to point out to you one by one,

The dangers that wait to assail you.

But just buckle it in with a bit of a grin,

Just take off your coat and go to it;

Just start to sing as you tackle the thing

That "couldn’t be done," and you’ll do it.

Enjoy the ride, I will for sure.

Wish me luck.

view screens - ABC works ABCD - not always. Sorry my Anglish (google translate).

I do wish you well Clive and the post eur news move on euraud was very nice. As long as you have rules and structure around what you are doing that's fine.

Talking Islander the reminder is he does what he does after endless research, so he is 100% completely clear on what, why, where, when. He trades 1 min but his rules are clear and he is without question fully aware of the bigger picture.

Anyway I'll keep on popping by as I do have some views on this set up you have put forward.