Do you believe this market is random? | Page 33 | Forex Factory

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  • #641
  • May 31, 2014 5:47pm May 31, 2014 5:47pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Do you think things are bull just because you don't understand them? As I stated, it depends on what you call a pattern. If you're referring to trade the pin bar above the moving average when stochastics has crossed (and all that nonsense) then no, there is no pattern, at least not one that lasts. If you allow a more general pattern, that is less rigid, then yes they exist and they last. Lets try this question. Do you think there is something pattern like about market bubbles? Consider the internet bubble, a housing bubble, tulipmania, bitcoin,...
I enjoyed this post.The crazy thing is .although opinions are so opposite collectively we on average will enter the market in the same price levels and be stopped out at the same price levels.ummm mmm and patterns dont exist.
  • #642
  • May 31, 2014 5:53pm May 31, 2014 5:53pm
Let me ask a question to those that believe price is unstructured.WHAT DO YOU BASE YOUR DECISION ON WHEN PLACING A TRADE ?
  • #643
  • May 31, 2014 6:28pm May 31, 2014 6:28pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} like I said, you believe in something you can not give a clear example of - so what is it you're believing in? and you say I can't see it..."something hard to put your finger on" - so your trading is based on something you can not even explain? is that wise?As for your example, like I said, the only patterns that do exist are from fundamentals, like changes to interest rates, increases in unemployment etc etc
Exactly 60 minute.but your fundies are governed by cycles .which result from greed and fear .these cycles repeat un size and duration.
  • #644
  • Edited Jun 1, 2014 1:05am May 31, 2014 11:53pm | Edited Jun 1, 2014 1:05am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} I enjoyed this post.The crazy thing is .although opinions are so opposite collectively we on average will enter the market in the same price levels and be stopped out at the same price levels.ummm mmm and patterns dont exist.
What makes you think we enter the market at the same price levels and manage the trade the same way? I can be pretty confident most people don't do the same, as most people lose, so they can't be. If you don't want to believe patterns exist that's fine. But perhaps consider that you'll never find something if you don't believe it exists. Strangely you think greed and fear cycles repeat, and yet you don't consider it a pattern. You also think that price travels to structured points, i.e. a pattern.
  • #645
  • Jun 1, 2014 12:21am Jun 1, 2014 12:21am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} I can give an example and gave you several. There are bubbles. Even the media can see that there is some underlying patterns, that's why they term them bubbles and not 'an increase'. Can't you see that? Even Johnny Journalist can see there is some pattern with bubbles. What you want is for me to tell you how to apply this sort of thing to the markets, right? How rather than just be aware of this sort of thing in a vague way, you can actually put your finger directly on it and recognise what it is, right?
see I said you couldnt give a single example of a 'pattern' and I was right.
tradewith60
  • #646
  • Jun 1, 2014 12:23am Jun 1, 2014 12:23am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} see I said you couldnt give a single example of a 'pattern' and I was right.
A bubble is a pattern. If there is no similarity between market bubbles then why are they all referred to as bubbles?

Anyway, obviously this is not the sort of pattern you're looking for (with ObiWan hand wave)
  • #647
  • Jun 1, 2014 12:48am Jun 1, 2014 12:48am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} A bubble is a pattern. If there is no similarity between market bubbles then why are they all referred to as bubbles? Anyway, obviously this is not the sort of pattern you're looking for (with ObiWan hand wave)
you implied at the start you traded 'patterns' so you trade bubbles I presume? how do you define a bubble and how do you trade them then?
tradewith60
  • #648
  • Jun 1, 2014 12:53am Jun 1, 2014 12:53am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} you implied at the start you traded 'patterns' so you trade bubbles I presume? how do you define a bubble and how do you trade them then?
First, do you accept now that there are patterns? If not, then there's no point in me explaining any further.
  • #649
  • Jun 1, 2014 1:20am Jun 1, 2014 1:20am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} What makes you think we enter the market at the same price levels and manage the trade the same way? I can be pretty confident most people don't do the same, as most people lose, so they can't be. If you don't want to believe patterns exist that's fine. But perhaps consider that you'll never find something if you don't believe it exists. Strangely you think greed and fear cycles repeat, and yet you don't consider it a pattern.
I think you misunderstood my post,it was meant in irony ,I totally believe the market has a structure and is a complex multitude of cycles.
  • #650
  • Jun 1, 2014 1:24am Jun 1, 2014 1:24am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} I think you misunderstood my post,it was meant in irony ,I totally believe the market has a structure and is a complex multitude of cycles.
Ok sorry.

I've seen so much nonsensical stuff written on this forum in the past few days that it's becoming hard to tell if people are even serious lol
  • #651
  • Jun 1, 2014 3:14am Jun 1, 2014 3:14am
Quoting simonb
{quote} I don't think so.. I think you are saying that something has happened in some kind of common and defined fashion. Nothing more, nothing less. A range trends between the walls of it's confinement... A trend is a trend. A "trend" to a contrarian nullifies your statement about what a trend apparently is. -1 for you sir
If something occurs in some kind of common and defined fashion, it cannot be random. Random means the opposite of that.
  • #652
  • Jun 1, 2014 12:38pm Jun 1, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting Fractalist
{quote} People are confused. The wind is not random. It is complex. Same thing in markets. As for SNR issues, scrap moving averages and use lowpass filters instead and watch that SNR get much better. Moving Averages are quite possibly the worst filter on the planet and cannot remove noise very well. They also lag way too much.

Now I have built low pass filters of all sorts, but not digital ones. I have seen hi-pass filters that use up-down counters to get rid of slow changes and pass on the surges.

You may have something there. I am interested in the surges rather than the slow drifts: you make money quickly on those. Breakouts:

You could keep count of ticks and sum them until they exceed a certain amount, And know that the price has very recently moved at a certain speed>

Something like that could be helpful. Of course ticks come a lot more slowly at 5:30 pm than at 3:30 am e.s.t.

Or you could just look at the current candle and see that it is climbing/dropping a lot faster than the 8 bar simple moving average.

You would have to be at screen to do that , of course.

But Hmm....
  • #653
  • Jun 1, 2014 1:22pm Jun 1, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} First, do you accept now that there are patterns? If not, then there's no point in me explaining any further.
Like I have stated many times, all patterns are an illusion if you are going to base future predictions off of them. Anything that has worked in the past has zero guarantee of working in the future regardless of past performance. That is my belief and it will never ever change, even if you could say when A and B happen and C blah blah blah, then D 67.5% of the time (which you can not anyway)....

When you talk to traders who work for Funds that use Algo's they will often tell you that first the algo (sometimes daily, sometimes weekly or longer) needs to be given bias by a human (usually using fundamentals) - if there were reliable patterns, with the money to be made, and the brains available, there would be a plethora of highly profitable algo's running on their own, never needing to be changed, never losing their performance.

Moreover, even if there were patterns, I have proven to myself that you do not need to use them to make profit, consistently, week in, week out...

Still, IF, that is a big IF, you have a pattern you can quantify, I would be fascinated to hear/see it, and to find it's fail point.
tradewith60
  • #654
  • Jun 1, 2014 11:31pm Jun 1, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} No it's not quite that simple, you are going to realize soon that 2 traders could have 2 different ways to define a bullish candle. It's up to you to decide, in the classic sense it's when price has broken out of a range or on opposing pressure going up, but there is more to it than that. Have you started trading yet?
No I have not started trading live yet, I have decided not to risk anything until I have solid knowledge of forex. I am just practicing in demo now.

But from another forum (babypips) I learned this defnition of bullish :
The term "bullish" is used to describe that a person's, or group's, outlook on an asset is optimistic (i.e., that the asset will rise in value).
For example, John is "bullish" on the British Pound, which means he thinks its value will go up in price

Is it wrong then? Can you give me an example of how 2 traders will define bullish in 2 different ways?
  • #655
  • Jun 2, 2014 2:23am Jun 2, 2014 2:23am
pattern not exist...and i agree

that why 98% trader loss in market because believing on this mentality

it damm funny trade with pattern and bla bla bla

are u trader??? or gambler or system follower??

do u know that mt4 exist because it only represent where the current price??

what the fuck u want to use them even u dont know what it all about..



all bullshit forever

we making a huge business...if it works...why we are wasting time doing research ??

think business and u will safe..we only do a transaction..no more no less

adiosss stupidio
  • #656
  • Jun 2, 2014 3:38am Jun 2, 2014 3:38am
I think the market has a random element and at times it's more random than at other times, and I do think that it is more random between levels, and this is where patience comes in, you have to wait until the price has moved to a point that you judge it will react at at and if you manage to get into a winning trade, accept the randomness until it hits your target level.
  • #657
  • Jun 2, 2014 7:25am Jun 2, 2014 7:25am
Forex is a real business and not predictable.
  • #658
  • Jun 2, 2014 10:10am Jun 2, 2014 10:10am
Quoting davidson333
Forex is a real business and not predictable.
If you understand basic Fundamentals, yes you can predict the market. I have been riding the JPY bond sale program for year and half now and the profits are very nice. So yes if you know your stuff you can follow the long term direction of a currency.
  • #659
  • Jun 2, 2014 10:19am Jun 2, 2014 10:19am
Quoting davidson333
Forex is a real business and not predictable.


  • #660
  • Jun 2, 2014 11:32am Jun 2, 2014 11:32am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} Now I have built low pass filters of all sorts, but not digital ones. I have seen hi-pass filters that use up-down counters to get rid of slow changes and pass on the surges. You may have something there. I am interested in the surges rather than the slow drifts: you make money quickly on those. Breakouts: You could keep count of ticks and sum them until they exceed a certain amount, And know that the price has very recently moved at a certain speed> Something like that could be helpful. Of course ticks come a lot more slowly at 5:30 pm...
I have pondered digital filtering, I'm not sure it would mean much. I once constructed a special MACD filter which had a third signal output indicating faster than normal swing, but all you really get is the hair sticking out of the mush. You really need something that can weight the price movements with volume, ...or not.

The other thing I thought was to use FFT on the data. That would allow one to learn if there are any conditions that precede sudden movements. Two things put me off using FFT, first it is really difficult to find an algorithm and second, surely the skunk-room has already tried that? (and third, last time I aired that thought somebody wrote that it had already been tried...? ). (and fourth, my maths is not up to it any more).
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