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  • #181
  • Jun 2, 2014 2:53am Jun 2, 2014 2:53am
Quoting clivepackham
First part done nice entry, went to BE in same 1 minute candle now where do I exit??? {image}
Stopped out for BE after being 18 pips up which of course at 1% per pip equates to 18%. With the power of hindsight should of taken it shouldn't of I???

But this is where the fun starts getting a safe entry isn't too difficult but knowing where to exit , well thats a different story isn't it??

Still no harm done but what can I learn from it??? Why didn't I take my profit when I could??? Were there tell tale signs that it was time to exit???Questions I need to answer if I am going to make this strategy work.

1) First thing that need quantifying, what was I thinking when I took the entry??? What was the strategy behind the entry??? What was the plan if there was one that is??

2) Secondly what was I thinking durring the trade???? Why didn't I close it out at the top I saw it waver at 1.8125???

3) And thirdly was there signs that this was possibly going to happen eg not follow through??

Will review later and see what I can learn.Work in progress obviously.

Onwards and upwards.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #182
  • Edited 3:20am Jun 2, 2014 3:05am | Edited 3:20am
Really interested in these GBP pairs today but with the news release pending at 9.30 better leave well alone until after, maybe a nice little post news trade lining up???

By the way Claudia look at this pivot trade on GBPUSD some lovely little entries there,break and retest, with a 10 pip stop behind the pivot, well worth a look in future for sure.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd pivot trade.png Size: 62 KB


Could be at BE now and god knows where it could stop???

Anyway gonna make myself a nice little cuppa and see what sets up after the news.

Really fancy those GBP pairs today even if its negative news and drives it down I'll bet it will fly back up.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #183
  • Jun 2, 2014 3:27am Jun 2, 2014 3:27am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Stopped out for BE after being 18 pips up which of course at 1% per pip equates to 18%. With the power of hindsight should of taken it shouldn't of I??? But this is where the fun starts getting a safe entry isn't too difficult but knowing where to exit , well thats a different story isn't it?? Still no harm done but what can I learn from it??? Why didn't I take my profit when I could??? Were there tell tale signs that it was time to exit???Questions I need to answer if I am going to make this strategy work. 1) First thing that need quantifying,...
GA ran up from 1.8000 this morning so after 125 pips it would likely have a pullback. Are you aware of the 85/15 trade? If price pushes up above (in this case) 1.8085 it might well push through the RN to (in this case) 1.8115 or so. All this especially when there has been a 100 pip move up this morning. There is also a W pivot 1.8111. Finally theres the Monday morning issue when prices can be particularly jumpy.

I know easy in hindsight but the above are all valid observations that frequently happen.

PS the 85/15 works in reverse falling below 15 might push below RN to 85 area.
  • #184
  • Edited 4:56am Jun 2, 2014 3:32am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Vantage You're posting so fast I can't keep up!! Lastly you mentioned that if London drives price back in direction of the daily trend then watch out for a pre-New York session pullback before continuing with the trend?? Have I got that right??
Please see the link for the weak CT candles http://www.vantagefx.blogspot.com/20...d-candles.html written in July '12 and still applies. Like in all things its a guide, will it be true all the time no of course not, it should not be confused with proper reversal patterns and strong engulfing candles (on 1hr). Its for say 1 - 3 weak candles that basically drift sideways 'waiting' for US volume to kick in to return to trend.
  • #185
  • Jun 2, 2014 3:40am Jun 2, 2014 3:40am
Quoting clivepackham
With the power of hindsight should of taken it shouldn't of I??? But this is where the fun starts getting a safe entry isn't too difficult but knowing where to exit , well thats a different story isn't it?? Still no harm done but what can I learn from it??? Why didn't I take my profit when I could??? Were there tell tale signs that it was time to exit???Questions I need to answer if I am going to make this strategy work. 1) First thing that need quantifying, what was I thinking when I took the entry??? What was the strategy behind the entry??? What...
Guys like Islander focus largely on the reversals that takeplace in and around Frankies hour (Frankfurt open) and LO. Sign to exit the 1 min lower high that occurred. Again very easy in hindsight but you need some clarity as you say before you go in as to what you'll accept.
This is where I feel the bigger picture comes in (100+ pip run up this morning, W pivot, RN) and where I struggle with the guys that just say trade the 1 min as you see it. OK trade the 1 min as you see it but there has to be some recognition of the pigger pic issues.
  • #186
  • Jun 2, 2014 3:44am Jun 2, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} GA ran up from 1.8000 this morning so after 125 pips it would likely have a pullback. Are you aware of the 85/15 trade? If price pushes up above (in this case) 1.8085 it might well push through the RN to (in this case) 1.8115 or so. All this especially when there has been a 100 pip move up this morning. There is also a W pivot 1.8111. Finally theres the Monday morning issue when prices can be particularly jumpy. I know easy in hindsight but the above are all valid observations that frequently happen. PS the 85/15 works in reverse falling...
Morning Sir

How are you this morning?? What god forsaken time is it where you are???

No haven't heard of that 85/15 rule that might of helped this morning but having had a quick look myself you're dead right about the 120 odd pip run already but for me whats even more notorious for my 1 min is the overbought 15 min cci!!! Its one of my favourite 1 min reversal signals and nearly always causes a very small 1 min reverse for a couple of waves at least. But I know that, so should of been looking to grab the momentum push off of the BRN rather than hold for the 1 min trend to continue, but hey ho like you say hindsight is such a powerful thing, if only we could have some beforehand??

I will review later as there were obvious signs before hand that it should of just been a momentum grabber not a trend trade.

I always say the 1 min chart is no different from any other timeframe you want to mention eg it goes overbought, it trends, it falters, it has failed drives, it reverses etc etc only trouble is it happens at lightning speed compared to a Daily hrly etc so you have to have your wits about you at all times.

There's one massive advantage I accept everytime about hrly daily charts you have time to analyse and come to a decision about your trades on the 1 min you have to have lightning reactions and analysis skills.

But I'm getting there.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #187
  • Jun 2, 2014 4:06am Jun 2, 2014 4:06am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Guys like Islander focus largely on the reversals that takeplace in and around Frankies hour (Frankfurt open) and LO. Sign to exit the 1 min lower high that occurred. Again very easy in hindsight but you need some clarity as you say before you go in as to what you'll accept. This is where I feel the bigger picture comes in (100+ pip run up this morning, W pivot, RN) and where I struggle with the guys...
Sorry we crossed over posts again. Its very rude of me a bit like interrupting someone when they are speaking. And I can assure you I would never ever interrupt you if we were in a conversation, I would be listening intently. I might be a fool when it comes to trading, but I know when to shut up and listen.

I agree with you 100% I need to bring the bigger picture into my trading at all times but in defense my morning strategy is to just follow the money and enter in that direction , however once in the trade make a decision to whether or not I "Fold em or Hold em". Now maybe like this morning if I had just analyzed the situation a little better, pre-entry, the tell tale signs were there to see, this should of been a quick grab of the momentum and when I saw it clearly falter,3 times, at 1.8125 I should of folded and grabbed my money.

So yep thanks for the advice and from now on I will endeavour to decide before I enter what I should do and how I should play it, like they always say "Plan your trade then trade your plan" and of course "Fail to plan and you are planning to fail"

Like good old pops always said, "you learn so much more from your mistakes"

God am I learning fast.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #188
  • Jun 2, 2014 4:09am Jun 2, 2014 4:09am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Morning Sir How are you this morning?? What god forsaken time is it where you are??? No haven't heard of that 85/15 rule that might of helped this morning but having had a quick look myself you're dead right about the 120 odd pip run already but for me whats even more notorious for my 1 min is the overbought 15 min cci!!! Its one of my favourite 1 min reversal signals and nearly always causes a very small 1 min reverse for a couple of waves at least. But I know that, so should of been looking to grab the momentum push off of the...
That's the thing about trend, entry point in move, stop size and the pair. A 125 pip move will not sustain itself in all but the most extreme of runs (that happen very, very rarely on major news), so if you have entered late in a run on a pair that can have a big retrace like ga, ea, gj and ej to name a few you have to TP as your 10 pip/BE stop will likely get tagged.

If you got in early in the move and you are 70 up or so then you can decide if you want to hold if D set up suggests start of big trend. But 70 pips with your RR suggests a profit for the day that could not be ignored.

Anyway if its late in a news move, or a CT scalp be prepared to grab your pips. If its the first trade after the D has signalled either the start of new trend, or the resumption of trend (i.e. a D higher low or lower high) then be prepared to hold out a little. Its changing your profit expectations in line with what you assess to be the trade you are in (end of run, scalp, start/resumption of trend per higher TF).
  • #189
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:04am Jun 2, 2014 5:04am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} That's the thing about trend, entry point in move, stop size and the pair. A 125 pip move will not sustain itself in all but the most extreme of runs (that happen very, very rarely on major news), so if you have entered late in a run on a pair that can have a big retrace like ga, ea, gj and ej to name a few you have to TP as your 10 pip/BE stop will likely get tagged. If you got in early in the move and you are 70 up or so then you can decide if you want to hold if D set up suggests start of big trend. But 70 pips with your RR suggests a...
Many thanks for all your wise words I am very grateful to you for the time you are spending here posting your invaluable advice.

There appears to be quite a few traders here viewing this thread but I'm sure its not my trading that's attracting them but rather your wise words of advise to me.

I have already heeded your advice today which has probably saved me many losing trades. You told me last week to just look for maybe one or two trades per session as after the first 50-70 pip run the London session is over and the London traders are waiting for the New York session to begin so after the morning rush I should stop trading in this quiet lull before New York.

That I have done today, I had a go at GBPAUD my top trender, should of grabbed about 15% out of it but mistakenly held for the trend to continue so stopped out at BE. But never mind I have traded the London open and not lost, an improvement on last week so things are already looking up thanks to your advice.

Plus of course I've learnt today to have a look around before I jump on a top trender and decide whether I am "Holding or Folding" before I enter.

Now this young bull, old bull relationship we appear to be developing here reminds me of a little story my Father told me many years ago, let me share it with you, hope you like it.

There was once an old bull and a young bull walking across a field when the young bull suddenly noticed about 30 young heffers grazing in an adjacent field.Excited at the prospect in front of him, he started running down the hill as fast as he could and yelled back to the old bull "come on old man lets run down the hill and sired one of those heffers".To which the old bull replied "I got a better idea son, why don't we walk down the hill and sire all the heffers?"


I gotta learn to walk a little slower.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #190
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:10am Jun 2, 2014 5:10am
Anyway on that happy note i gotta shoot out for a couple of hours get some work done for my local Hospice. will try to get back for New York open.

See you all later, bye for now.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #191
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:28am Jun 2, 2014 5:28am
This ones for you Claudia!!!

break and retest of GBPUSD pivot to the bloody pip!!! How tight could that entry be and at BE within 3 pips I bet.

Watched this but didn't take it as mid morning hush period, wander where this is gonna end up????

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: break and retest of gbpusd pivot to the pip.png Size: 61 KB


Gotta go. catch you later.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #192
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:41am Jun 2, 2014 5:41am
Quoting clivepackham
There was once an old bull and a young bull walking across a field when the young bull suddenly noticed about 30 young heffers grazing in an adjacent field.Excited at the prospect in front of him, he started running down the hill as fast as he could and yelled back to the old bull "come on old man lets run down the hill and sired one of those heffers".To which the old bull replied "I got a better idea son, why don't we walk down the hill and sire all the heffers?" I gotta learn to walk a little slower.
Not quite the wording of the version I know but yes very true.

A bit like the saying - there are old traders, there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders!
  • #193
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:47am Jun 2, 2014 5:47am
Quoting clivepackham
This ones for you Claudia!!! break and retest of GBPUSD pivot to the bloody pip!!! How tight could that entry be and at BE within 3 pips I bet. Watched this but didn't take it as mid morning hush period, wander where this is gonna end up???? {image} Gotta go. catch you later.
Thanks Clive it's been messing around the dp all day. Where is it gonna end up?? I don't know but I'm long at moment. Had a good night with gold lol so not too bothered.
  • #194
  • Jun 2, 2014 5:53am Jun 2, 2014 5:53am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Thanks Clive it's been messing around the dp all day. Where is it gonna end up?? I don't know but I'm long at moment. Had a good night with gold lol so not too bothered.
Edit: by the way you just managed to identify a sideways market! lol have a great day.
  • #195
  • Jun 2, 2014 6:24am Jun 2, 2014 6:24am
Quoting claudia1
{quote}Edit: by the way you just managed to identify a sideways market! lol have a great day.
Not trending??? Are you sure Claudia????

Have a look at that chart again but this time pretend you're looking at an hourly or daily chart, isn't it trending ?? Aren't there HHHL's??? wouldn't you be interested in an hourly chart that looked like that??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: break and retest of gbpusd pivot to the pip.png Size: 61 KB


Agreed the pivot trade was a possible wave 5 of a 5 wave elliot move so therefore a bit suspect but the break and retest of the pivot gives it a bit more credebility, but its definately trending on the 1 min.

But hey, please don't take me too seriously guess "Trending" depends on which timeframe we all look at, anyway I didn't take the trade, as its the mid morning quiet period Vantage refers to in his posts, so its irrelevant really just amazing how accurately that pivot level gets traded isn't it??? I don't think theres another pair that's pivot piont gets traded quite so accurately do you??

A 1 minute entry could provide a very tight stop, couldn't it, just a thought.

And on that line of thought, as an experienced Pivot trader on GBPUSD could you tell me do big moves start from GBPUSD pivots trades???

Just wandering if I could research old daily pivot levels going back a few months is there an indy that marks them and leaves them on for such research I wander?? Difficult to look back historically as my pivot indy just marks current day only? I'm just thinking Claudia with your extensive experience trading GBPUSD maybe that could be the key to small risk entries with large returns??

What do you think? Is it the low risk high return entry I am seeking???

Your thoughts would be welcome.
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #196
  • Jun 2, 2014 6:46am Jun 2, 2014 6:46am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Not trending??? Are you sure Claudia???? Have a look at that chart again but this time pretend you're looking at an hourly or daily chart, isn't it trending ?? Aren't there HHHL's??? wouldn't you be interested in an hourly chart that looked like that?? {image} Agreed the pivot trade was a possible wave 5 of a 5 wave elliot move so therefore a bit suspect but the break and retest of the pivot gives it a bit more credebility, but its definately trending on the 1 min. But hey, please don't take me too seriously guess "Trending"...
A trend in my eyes is something that develops over a period of time not a few minutes. Cable repects the daily pivot for some reason but look at the higher frames the minute will kill you. The way to make money trading spot on the minute is to have no stop - check my thread I hit 50+ wins one day on the one minute on live account for a bet lol. Dangerous and not recommended and need sizeable account. Please check out the larger time frames it will change the way you trade.
  • #197
  • Jun 2, 2014 7:37am Jun 2, 2014 7:37am
Caught another one went to BE in same 1 min again so capital safe now where shall I exit??? but this time I think I am ok to hold through the trend as wave 3 I reckon but only time will tell lets see how far we get this time, fingers crossed.

11 pips up at the mo but its looking good this time will hold through first pullback just hope my entry with stands retest??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: caught another one.png Size: 53 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #198
  • Edited 7:58am Jun 2, 2014 7:45am | Edited 7:58am
Hi guys! I'm from Russia ! The strategy you are risen we vozimsya not the first day and came to her the other way and want to make a correction . ABCD - does not always work out - especially for long periods - and often breaks for small periods. - We are a group of guys - called such price movement - cycle. But having studied its behavior cycle now draw so . Often the cycle , discarding at 23.6-38 - 61 - by fibo or without rollback - consider moving the best 55th and opening trades only on the levels. Glad we agree thought - we do not stop to learn and study in more detail flat - that's what you get: - your screen ABCD

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but our screen based on the ABC

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Hope that helps you in trading
  • #199
  • Jun 2, 2014 7:45am Jun 2, 2014 7:45am
Quoting clivepackham
Caught another one went to BE in same 1 min again so capital safe now where shall I exit??? but this time I think I am ok to hold through the trend as wave 3 I reckon but only time will tell lets see how far we get this time, fingers crossed. 11 pips up at the mo but its looking good this time will hold through first pullback just hope my entry with stands retest?? {image}
Asian/London session did very little so if the ATR or anything close to it is to be achieved the US session will be the one to do it. 139.30 ish from 27 May high looks an achievable target. From there who knows.
  • #200
  • Jun 2, 2014 7:58am Jun 2, 2014 7:58am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Asian/London session did very little so if the ATR or anything close to it is to be achieved the US session will be the one to do it. 139.30 ish from 27 May high looks an achievable target. From there who knows.
Beat me to it Vantage. If it clears 139.277, then 139.30/35 (50 max?) before a decent bounce I should think.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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