DislikedCan we know about the edge - not the actual strategy. For instance, if the win rate is 60% what is the pay off, what is the risk, what is the net gain over 100 trades taken etc.Ignored
{quote} I will be able to give that data after I have completed 100 trades with this tell. However I may have been in error to call it an "edge". It is not a mathematical or statistical edge. Rather it is a realization of an essential "truth" about the market. Thus i have information that gives me an advantage. I am currently observing the consistency of the quantified version I have created. I will later determined how to utilize it in a trading method. Think of it like a market "lie detector" measuring (quantifying) what the market does when it...
- #24
- Jun 1, 2014 10:39am Jun 1, 2014 10:39am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,063 Posts
{quote} Gotta say, I'm now very confused lol
- #25
- Jun 1, 2014 10:45am Jun 1, 2014 10:45am
for a minute i thought this was another "i've found the Holy Grail" thread
thank god its not
besides 60% is n't that high in probability and only just over 50/50 and the coin toss method
80%+ is really only to be considered high probability (imo)
90%+ is Holy Grail (according to Google searches on the subject)
although apparently many big banks do regard 60% as fine, but then they know many other tricks for MM the little retailers don't
good luck anyhow
thank god its not
besides 60% is n't that high in probability and only just over 50/50 and the coin toss method
80%+ is really only to be considered high probability (imo)
90%+ is Holy Grail (according to Google searches on the subject)
although apparently many big banks do regard 60% as fine, but then they know many other tricks for MM the little retailers don't
good luck anyhow
- #26
- Edited 12:42pm Jun 1, 2014 10:57am | Edited 12:42pm
for a minute i thought this was another "i've found the Holy Grail" thread thank god its not
I am assuming a RR of at least 1:1 for all those "Number" crunchers out there Lol.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
- #27
- Jun 1, 2014 12:34pm Jun 1, 2014 12:34pm
{quote} So 90% is considered the holy grail I didn't know that, I thought it was more than that, well that's good. But 90 percent of what? trades, trading days? I guess it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things anyway. The only thing that is different with 60 percent - 90 percent is time. They both can makes a lot of money, but 90 percent would compound to a trillion dollars sooner Lol in other words you don't need it, and I think anyone would be fine with any figure over a couple millions
before searching i also thought it would be nearer 100% or 95% at the least,
but the consensus of most sensible posts and discussions seemed to be that 90% or better should be considered as the Holy Grail,
in real terms its good enough and something nr everyone should be happy with (except perfectionists)
presumably it is 1:1+, otherwise it won't be so profitable overall regardless of the high W/L
(although cant quite remember exactly all whats written on the Grail and there is alot written on the net)
but knowing the Grail is n't absolute perfection somehow seems to make trading and only going for the very best trades slightly easier, (usually on the higher TFs, for me anyway) even if there is often alot of waiting
the Grail possibly also should n't have us glued to the charts day and night either, regardless of how much money one could possibly make,
although preferably the Grail would be automated so we would n't have to actually trade at all and could be at the beach all day, but maybe that's asking too much
70/80%+ will do me, as it may take a life time or more to find the Holy Grail
(these threads)
- #29
- Jun 1, 2014 1:18pm Jun 1, 2014 1:18pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2012 | 3,770 Posts
tradewith60
- #31
- Jun 1, 2014 1:27pm Jun 1, 2014 1:27pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2012 | 3,770 Posts
tradewith60
{quote} I think we need to know trade frequency also to calculate risk of ruin? but yeah win rate on it's own means absolutely nothing
- #33
- Edited 1:55pm Jun 1, 2014 1:41pm | Edited 1:55pm
- Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,997 Posts
{quote} I gave you all the only hint I'm willing to give for now. As I've already mentioned, I am currently forward testing and observing. I seriously doubt that I would post a "system" here anyway. I strongly believe that each person has their own unique way of looking at the market. Thus my method would only end up confusing and frustrating both teacher and students. Besides all I've mentioned here is a "tell" not a method, system, or edge. It is a market "truth"...something the market MUST do to change direction and I've found a way to quantify...
Your post is too ridicule to worth responding however you just revealed how much you still need to learn in this business.
I can care or less what you reveal or not, it wasn't the point.. I know most likely it's nothing and if it actually is something it would not necessarily work for me or anyone else perhaps.. the point of my post was why would you mentioned something that it's point less.. or it's your "secret".. or not tested yet to be even consider as a "tell" or "edge".. these are your words not mine.
.. and couple of true tip for you... your a retail guy in this business, that equals you to pretty much nada, zip, null in this business.
nothing for nothing though pal, i would love to play you heads up.. you be all-in before taking a seat
.. lolanyhow I am happy for you regardless in your "tell" journey.
to others.. some of you pikers in here are just too funny.
now go ahead take shot at me, knock yo self out.. lol
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
- #34
- Jun 1, 2014 1:44pm Jun 1, 2014 1:44pm
- Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,997 Posts
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
Hi, After 11 years hard slog at the coal face you have now found "your edge" - well done. If you want to give something back then can i suggest you trade your edge, and donate 10% of your income to whatever charity is close to your heart. DO NOT give your edge away on any FX forum to some lazy so and so who are looking for a free lunch !!!!!!!! Again, a lot of respect to someone who has put the time and effort in, so that they have enough knowledge and experience to be on top of this business.
That there are tells is probably enough information to give away. I like to help people see things about the forex rather than give them actual methods and techniques that I use.
Actually, I believe they are better off.
I found this thread in trading discussion, but for now I really dont see any constructive "discussion" here. OP is an old reputable member and probably is not starting a nice scam scenario, but at the very least he is making emotional posts that are gathering much attention but has no true value for the others. If you are not going to share your observation, which is more than logical, then there is absolutely no point in making a thread on the public forum about it.. And if you are willing to contribute in some way, then you must reveal some aspects of your discovery, how you have gone towards it etc, so a true discussion could be made. Otherwise, we have seen more than one of those "i've finally found it" threads, but did we learn from them? I must say that reading such statements from an old poster is motivational for me, but i haven't learn anything new here. And the point of using our forum is learning or teaching. If it is just about sharing the emotion, you better share it with your family and friends, not with us
My questions regarding the op.. . First - what do you mean the "markets" tell. Are we talking only forex, on all the pairs? Really? And then if we have to be more specific - what do you mean by turn in price? Are you talking about immediate or long-term direction? I can spot market turning pints also, but is the turning point a small correction, is it beginning of a large and sustainable move and are you able to capitalize on it at all, having proper entry and exit points and position sizing with some acceptable risk. These are all different "tales". I think of the traders edge as a possibility to capitalize on some market scenarios and win more than the losses. So how do you find an edge by spotting turning points? You have to know when to enter, when to exit, when to enter or exit again and how much to risk. what does 60% winrate say. More important is the profit factor. The expectancy, how much do you gain when you are right, how far and how bad it can go when you are wrong? And unless it is very low-frequency trading strategy, i think you would need much more data than the 100 trades to make a good judgment; And you know that the worst scenario is yet to come.. So do you think your edge is sustainable? Do you know exactly what stands behind that edge - the behavior of other market participants that gives birth to your favorite pattern? I am not trying to be too critical, but if we are not going to discuss anything real, we are havig just another one of those pointless teaser threads that lead us to nowhere. If i started such a thread everytime i believed to have found the secret to the big money, i would have owned the forum Keep it to yourself but guide others on the right paths. Wish you good trading
My questions regarding the op.. . First - what do you mean the "markets" tell. Are we talking only forex, on all the pairs? Really? And then if we have to be more specific - what do you mean by turn in price? Are you talking about immediate or long-term direction? I can spot market turning pints also, but is the turning point a small correction, is it beginning of a large and sustainable move and are you able to capitalize on it at all, having proper entry and exit points and position sizing with some acceptable risk. These are all different "tales". I think of the traders edge as a possibility to capitalize on some market scenarios and win more than the losses. So how do you find an edge by spotting turning points? You have to know when to enter, when to exit, when to enter or exit again and how much to risk. what does 60% winrate say. More important is the profit factor. The expectancy, how much do you gain when you are right, how far and how bad it can go when you are wrong? And unless it is very low-frequency trading strategy, i think you would need much more data than the 100 trades to make a good judgment; And you know that the worst scenario is yet to come.. So do you think your edge is sustainable? Do you know exactly what stands behind that edge - the behavior of other market participants that gives birth to your favorite pattern? I am not trying to be too critical, but if we are not going to discuss anything real, we are havig just another one of those pointless teaser threads that lead us to nowhere. If i started such a thread everytime i believed to have found the secret to the big money, i would have owned the forum
Keep it to yourself but guide others on the right paths. Wish you good trading
- #40
- Jun 1, 2014 4:09pm Jun 1, 2014 4:09pm
- | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2014 | 1,220 Posts
My Best Trade is Next Trade!