I believe I found the Market's "Tell" | Forex Factory

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I believe I found the Market's "Tell"

  • #1
  • First Post: May 31, 2014 11:43am May 31, 2014 11:43am
After almost 11 years of study and failure and more study with some "limited" success, I believe I have stumbled upon something that produces a "true" edge. The market has a very consistent "tell".

For those of you who have never played poker, a "tell" is some type of action that many people do with they lie. It is unconscious for the most part, and unless you are made aware of it, it can give away your thoughts to the observant opponent.

I believe I've found the market's unconscious "tell". Very subtle yet undeniable thing it does when it is about to change direction. I have developed an indicator in trade station to help me identify it consistently, and am currently forward testing it. It has turned my 40%-50% win rate to a solid 60%. I am now waiting to see if it will hold true for future forward testing for at least 100 trades.

What do you think? Does the market have a tell?
  • #2
  • May 31, 2014 11:50am May 31, 2014 11:50am
Quoting gspajon
After almost 11 years of study and failure and more study with some "limited" success, I believe I have stumbled upon something that produces a "true" edge. The market has a very consistent "tell". For those of you who have never played poker, a "tell" is some type of action that many people do with they lie. It is unconscious for the most part, and unless you are made aware of it, it can give away your thoughts to the observant opponent. I believe I've found the market's unconscious "tell". Very subtle yet undeniable thing it does when it is about...
Yes.
  • #3
  • May 31, 2014 12:00pm May 31, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting gspajon
After almost 11 years of study and failure and more study with some "limited" success, I believe I have stumbled upon something that produces a "true" edge. The market has a very consistent "tell". For those of you who have never played poker, a "tell" is some type of action that many people do with they lie. It is unconscious for the most part, and unless you are made aware of it, it can give away your thoughts to the observant opponent. I believe I've found the market's unconscious "tell". Very subtle yet undeniable thing it does when it is about...
I always knew you had it in you sir! So you have quantified this tell into an indicator? that takes true understanding, if what you;re saying is correct. Keep iit to yourself, make lots of money, and do good things... You've earned it!

Some time ago I also discovered.. Probably not the same thing as you, but a "thing" I have even named it RTFA ... 10 points for working out what that means. But same kinda thing, a very big "ah ha" moment like none of the others. Of course being a trader of 7 or so years I know not to get excited just yet. But 6 months of trading it so far and it's great. I can now confidently know that profit is inevitable if I stay disciplined and patient. I know longer fear or hate losses but rather enjoy them as much as wins as I know they are all part of the road I'm driving. Losses now actually have opportunity cost benefits such as allowing a rest from the markets untl the next set up for example.

But anyway, well done. I hope it works out very well for you. The only reason I say is because when someone of 11 years says such a thing, then you know it is not just some newbie that is going through all the usual traps.

Not sure how this post ended up so long just wanted to say "awesome.. and well done"
like totally failure brah
  • #4
  • May 31, 2014 12:05pm May 31, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} I always knew you had it in you sir! So you have quantified this tell into an indicator? that takes true understanding, if what you;re saying is correct. Keep iit to yourself, make lots of money, and do good things... You've earned it! Some time ago I also discovered.. Probably not the same thing as you, but a "thing" I have even named it RTFA ... 10 points for working out what that means. But same kinda thing, a very big "ah ha" moment like none of the others. Of course being a trader of 7 or so years I know not to get excited just yet....
RTFA= Really Tremendous F***ing analysis
Resistance To Fundamental Analysis.
Regret Trading Forever, Amen.
  • #5
  • May 31, 2014 12:13pm May 31, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} RTFA= Really Tremendous F***ing analysis Resistance To Fundamental Analysis. Regret Trading Forever, Amen.
lol not even close

Really Tanked Fucking Awesome

lol nah it's mine, you don't need it and I will never tell
like totally failure brah
  • #6
  • May 31, 2014 12:51pm May 31, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} lol not even close Really Tanked Fucking Awesome lol nah it's mine, you don't need it and I will never tell
Nope gonna try out the gazillion possibilities until I get it

Retracement To Fibonacci Angle
Relax, There's F' All
Random Trades, Fearless Attitude
Running Twenty Five Algorithms
Rollover Takes Fees Again.

I must have got at least one of the words right by now
  • #7
  • May 31, 2014 12:54pm May 31, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Nope gonna try out the gazillion possibilities until I get it Retracement To Fibonacci Angle Relax, There's F' All Random Trades, Fearless Attitude Running Twenty Five Algorithms Rollover Takes Fees Again. I must have got at least one of the words right by now
Nope, not one! /// Or did you ?

Not my thread man. What about you?

Quoting gspajon
What do you think? Does the market have a tell?
like totally failure brah
  • #8
  • May 31, 2014 1:40pm May 31, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} I always knew you had it in you sir! So you have quantified this tell into an indicator? that takes true understanding, if what you;re saying is correct. Keep iit to yourself, make lots of money, and do good things... You've earned it! Some time ago I also discovered.. Probably not the same thing as you, but a "thing" I have even named it RTFA ... 10 points for working out what that means. But same kinda thing, a very big "ah ha" moment like none of the others. Of course being a trader of 7 or so years I know not to get excited just yet....
Thanks Simon...if you are the same Simon I'm remembering (AKA Cindyxxx) your words are truly welcomed...

As you say I'm not getting too excited just yet, but so far things are looking up...I actually look forward to each open now, instead of dreading it with a racing heart beat. Knowing my little "tell", I can just sit and wait, and know EXACTLY what I'm waiting for...

Up until this point I've always had this innner conversation with myself: "Is this the turn? Well, it looks like it...according to ABC analysis, this is the turn. But according xyz trend system, I should wait. Oops there it goes...OK I'll get in now...DAMN that wasn't it. Now how do I lose the least...OK out...only a 20 pip loss. Ah Shit it WAS the turn...there it goes without me...instead of a 20 pip loss I could've had a 200 pip gain. Maybe I should consider a larger stop!"

Now it is only a matter of how far will it go until it turns again... 10 pips?...30 pips?...90? I'll even give you all out there a little hint...Look at VOLUME.

P.S. My guess is Relative Time Frame Analysis
  • #9
  • May 31, 2014 1:46pm May 31, 2014 1:46pm
Good for you man, always good to hear someone from outside the box with something new. The market has a few tells that can be found, but keep it to yourself, the stakes are too high, to be talking i guess, I think you would rather be rich than right on any forum. Good luck and may the pip be with you.

ps mine is the 'weighted ratio analysis".
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #10
  • May 31, 2014 8:57pm May 31, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting saneblane
Good for you man, always good to hear someone from outside the box with something new. The market has a few tells that can be found, but keep it to yourself, the stakes are too high, to be talking i guess, I think you would rather be rich than right on any forum. Good luck and may the pip be with you. ps mine is the 'weighted ratio analysis".
Was wondering about your signature..very interesting. BTW, the market does have a logic. It just takes lots of hard friendless work.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #11
  • May 31, 2014 8:58pm May 31, 2014 8:58pm
keep it to your self, there are 100's of such edges and every one will eventually find one.
Team Trader
  • #12
  • Jun 1, 2014 12:42am Jun 1, 2014 12:42am
Quoting gspajon
After almost 11 years of study and failure and more study with some "limited" success, I believe I have stumbled upon something that produces a "true" edge. The market has a very consistent "tell". For those of you who have never played poker, a "tell" is some type of action that many people do with they lie. It is unconscious for the most part, and unless you are made aware of it, it can give away your thoughts to the observant opponent. I believe I've found the market's unconscious "tell". Very subtle yet undeniable thing it does when it is about...

so what is it??.. there is no point in mentioning it if your not going to reveal it.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #13
  • Jun 1, 2014 1:06am Jun 1, 2014 1:06am
Hi,
After 11 years hard slog at the coal face you have now found "your edge" - well done.
If you want to give something back then can i suggest you trade your edge, and
donate 10% of your income to whatever charity is close to your heart. DO NOT
give your edge away on any FX forum to some lazy so and so who are looking for
a free lunch !!!!!!!!
Again, a lot of respect to someone who has put the time and
effort in, so that they have enough knowledge and experience to be on top of
this business.
  • #14
  • Jun 1, 2014 3:29am Jun 1, 2014 3:29am
Quoting diminuendo
Hi, After 11 years hard slog at the coal face you have now found "your edge" - well done. If you want to give something back then can i suggest you trade your edge, and donate 10% of your income to whatever charity is close to your heart. DO NOT give your edge away on any FX forum to some lazy so and so who are looking for a free lunch !!!!!!!! Again, a lot of respect to someone who has put the time and effort in, so that they have enough knowledge and experience to be on top of this business.
It's too complex to teach anyways. And I am most certainly not giving it away. This is capitalism....survival of the fittest!

All I will say is, if you are hungry enough and have the backbone to take on the 24/7 challenge, you may discover the holy grail.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #15
  • Jun 1, 2014 7:42am Jun 1, 2014 7:42am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} so what is it??.. there is no point in mentioning it if your not going to reveal it.
Actually there is a point, which is for you to ask about it ( like u did) and for him to say no he cant/wont share it.
  • #16
  • Jun 1, 2014 7:44am Jun 1, 2014 7:44am
Quoting traider
{quote} It's too complex to teach anyways. And I am most certainly not giving it away. This is capitalism....survival of the fittest! All I will say is, if you are hungry enough and have the backbone to take on the 24/7 challenge, you may discover the holy grail.
Lol i dont think he was talking about you.
  • #17
  • Jun 1, 2014 8:18am Jun 1, 2014 8:18am
Can we know about the edge - not the actual strategy.

For instance, if the win rate is 60% what is the pay off, what is the risk, what is the net gain over 100 trades taken etc.
  • #18
  • Edited 8:40am Jun 1, 2014 8:28am | Edited 8:40am
Quoting traider
{quote} Was wondering about your signature..very interesting. BTW, the market does have a logic. It just takes lots of hard friendless work.

Yea it's a double negative about how things are. I put in years of research like you, and it was a lonely road, I almost became a hermit just trading and reading books and figuring things out, for years I did this, and it was lonely. And then when I found my edge, and spoke to other traders I realize that the way I see the market is a lot more different and I became even more lonely. So the better you get the lonelier it gets, trading is a lonely road, you're on that road now I think, the lonelier path so I am happy for you. Money does help though
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #19
  • Jun 1, 2014 9:41am Jun 1, 2014 9:41am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} so what is it??.. there is no point in mentioning it if your not going to reveal it.
I gave you all the only hint I'm willing to give for now. As I've already mentioned, I am currently forward testing and observing. I seriously doubt that I would post a "system" here anyway. I strongly believe that each person has their own unique way of looking at the market. Thus my method would only end up confusing and frustrating both teacher and students. Besides all I've mentioned here is a "tell" not a method, system, or edge. It is a market "truth"...something the market MUST do to change direction and I've found a way to quantify it. That didn't come easily. As I am not a programmer I had to take a "side voyage" into the world of programming language to make this happen. My motive in posring was to encourage all of you that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. .. I strongly believe you will come to the same conclusion eventually. ..you must or you will lose all your money. However my revealing what I found is like saying to your opponent in poker, "did you know you stroke you eyebrow every time you bluff?" Now why would I do that? I am in this to win and in a zero sum game you dont win by announcing your advantage to your opponent. Like it or not, at some point we will be opponents and when that happens I will use my "tell" to either take your money or prevent you from taking mine. Welcome to the business! !
  • #20
  • Jun 1, 2014 9:59am Jun 1, 2014 9:59am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} I gave you all the only hint I'm willing to give for now. As I've already mentioned, I am currently forward testing and observing. I seriously doubt that I would post a "system" here anyway. I strongly believe that each person has their own unique way of looking at the market. Thus my method would only end up confusing and frustrating both teacher and students. Besides all I've mentioned here is a "tell" not a method, system, or edge. It is a market "truth"...something the market MUST do to change direction and I've found a way to quantify...

Don't say a thing man, giving proof to anyone doesn't help you at all. If you would ask me a million times "would I like to be is right on a forum, or rich", and rich would win every single time. the truth of the matter is many would never get to where you are because they don't have the frame of mind to get there, it's not that they can't get there that's the issue, the issue is they don't think there is anywhere to be gotten to in the first place. I had to break almost all the rules in the book and think of things from a whole different perspective before I got to my market truth. Welcome to the lonely crowd, where you are ridiculed and lonely for knowing what you know CHEERS. As time goes on you will start to understand the true meaning of my signature.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
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