AUD/USD

I think I'm getting addicted to drawing funny pictures! And yes I know it's a lot easier to analyse after the event

So for the sake of posting, here are my posts from my Journal.

I was looking for AUDUSD to retrace this week and it has, up to the 61.8 level. I'm looking for it to be bearish the coming weeks.

cluster**** = supply, good memory = good trader. I'll be delighted to sell to a buyer when it returns to that supply level for the 1st time!

you know what k , this guy is smart enough let him doing his job the atmosphere is full of some folks want gain some money.
GL R

Looks like she found some support here.

jonny, see that beautiful big green bar at the beginning of this move? that's where demand overcame supply=not more buyers than sellers, just no more sellers

yes I think good traders are prepared to fight the bastards in the candlewicks......
or as somebody once wrote 'be prepared to jump in front of a moving train when there is a high probability chance of a trend change' ..........
but then again I am reminded of that other old saying 'bottom pickers get dirty fingers'

I'm not a mathematician at all but happy to share my opinion:

I do think price points are "memorable" but I think something underlying price, or, what I call differentials are more memorable.

Example is just this morning: (times in EST) - at 12:30 and 1:30 .9293 became a short target on the pair. At this writing, it sure seems like price doesn't want to breach that to the downside.

I think I've cancelled writing about this a few times, but, the most recent run down on AU was about 200 pips (from the week open). In my studies, I've found that when this happens, it's usually not a long time before you see 200 pips ABOVE weeks open.

I've mentioned here before that I've had a significant break from live trading. During that break of about 6 or so years, I've been digging on patterns like these on the EUR/USD. After all the study, and wondering what the next steps were, I finally, about a month ago, decided I was going to start fresh with the AUD/USD using the same methods.

What I'm discovering myself is that when the market moves up, it clarifies the downside, and when it moves down, it clarifies the upside.

My methodology? Stupid simple.

I have a spreadsheet template I start fresh with every week tracking 30m open data. I have some stupid simple auto calculations and I have a cloud based database I keep some "records" in of short targets and long targets for this pair. I have been doing the same with some other pairs in different time frames but have been staying focused on the AUD/USD with the 30m methodology.

This is a link to the open targets on the AUD/USD I track - it is a DYNAMIC report, so, as I update it, you'll see changes. You're welcome to bookmark and follow along:

AUD/USD Open Targets

Know that I DO NOT trade all the way to these levels. This is all about helping me be on the right side of a move and understanding where a move in a direction has become extended and has a high probability of turning around. Some of these take some time to get to, but, after the amount of study I've done, I'm confident that every number seen will be hit...it's just a matter of when and how the market gets there.

At this point I AM NOT a full time trader, so, sometimes updates aren't instant. There are also cases where I haven't put the target into this system but do see the target on the spreadsheet. The .9293 I just described is an example of this. I'll be updating this particular target, marking when it developed and when it was hit, but, because it has been hit you won't see it on the "Open Targets" link above.

For clarity sake: I'm not here to sell anything. The "exercise" I've described is just what I'm doing.

Through all of this I have become a FIRM believer in underlying patterns to price.

This is how it starts...

Once you've seen it in reverse long enough, you can start to see it going forward.

Go back through other pairs, do the same things...the more you familiarize yourself with the technicals, the better your chances are at success.

Draw these lines going forward, see how they are respected...

Hi Neal, any chance of a piccie? Apparently a piccie paints a thousand words

I didn't watch the screen but at least get something out of it at the middle of the move.

Buy EUR sell AUD

i don't enter trades 1 pip from the top, rarely. i wait for the market to show its hand, then wait patiently for its return. if i see it dropped like a rock at this spot,
the next time, it will probably do the same thing. good traders=pros, etc don't buy after an extended up move, and don't sell after an extended down move. how could they make money that way. sidenote to zircon, one candle does not support make!

whats a piccie?

if in doubt use the urban dictionary
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=piccie
I came across a term earlier in the week that I hadn't heard of before that made me chuckle.....FSA
http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...%20Shit%20Army)
quote You can often identify members of the F.S.A. (Free Shit Army) by their SNAP/Food Stamp cards, latest urban fashions, Section 8 Housing voucher-stubs, their $300 nike tennis shoes, Apple Smartphones, and their 60" Plasma televisions.
No different to the UK really then, we just have different terms....

what type of pill would you like to see? wink thingy

here come the hunters!!

I would think that based on the fact you get you get a swap price that you are actually selling it
But hey perhaps your broker doesn't buy or sell anything for you just takes the risk on himself ?

hey dude, thanks very much for this! I'll digest it over the weekend.......as it turns out I work in IT (when I can be bothered ) so the trackvia stuff looks doubley interesting

you should quote to facilitate the discuss, if not i shall not read all what you write.

do not care about,i am talking scalp, if you were caring long term it is another story.
Mostly of traders are scalpers and intraday this is because they want gain money quick . i think they are right, ??

No forget this one i was only joke

Yes, I use track via for quite a few things unrelated to trading. Document storage, knowledge bases, fleet tracking, lease operations performance tracking....it is pretty crazy what it can do..