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AUD/USD

  • #78,081
  • May 29, 2014 3:59am May 29, 2014 3:59am
Quoting Expo33
Short term looks to me like the .9310 area is going to be a tough nut to crack. 4H 61.8FIB, 100 and 200MA with monthly pivot just above. Maybe a trip back to home base at .9270 before seeing .9334 again. Just my rant, good luck traders {image}
maybe , my target was 0.93 , and want to prove to that NG he is nothing thats all.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,082
  • May 29, 2014 4:05am May 29, 2014 4:05am
What's this bugger doing? Trending or ranging?
  • #78,083
  • May 29, 2014 4:19am May 29, 2014 4:19am
Zircon, you might be right, and if managed to extract profit on the AU pullback, good for you.
I made -40 points on this day trader, however longer-term I'm holding shorts and targets remain the same.

The 10 year yield is going down, while AU going up, this won't last.
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  • #78,084
  • May 29, 2014 4:21am May 29, 2014 4:21am
Gold prices on weekly have a sequence of lower highs, and now broke below 50% fib of the big upswing move.
Also, gold below 1296 (QP) and 1380 (YP). Current bid is 1253. 1200 is up next and if won't hold we can slide to year support 1 @ 1060.

Gold price structure and AUD gvt bond yields do not support AUD overall.
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  • #78,085
  • May 29, 2014 4:22am May 29, 2014 4:22am
AUDUSD is going at 0.88 levels.. there is a trap being formed at 0.9320/30 zone.. Sell on rallies..

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Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #78,086
  • May 29, 2014 4:24am May 29, 2014 4:24am
Go sell your sh**t to others i am not your client.

I did not ignored anyone here , but i will do this for you because you are a liar and i hate a liar men.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,087
  • May 29, 2014 4:25am May 29, 2014 4:25am
Quoting aviz12
AUDUSD is going at 0.88 levels.. there is a trap being formed at 0.9320/30 zone.. Sell on rallies.. {image}
aucad got good correl to AUDUSD, here's the monthly chart. It's fairly obvious that the pair set market top @ 1.0700 with a DB top structure on monthly.
The AUCAD pullback is also almost complete, so I expect continuation of the downmove promptly.
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  • #78,088
  • May 29, 2014 4:25am May 29, 2014 4:25am
back to making money.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #78,089
  • May 29, 2014 4:30am May 29, 2014 4:30am
ruffryders,

Fully agree, and we have Dollar strength during the end of this year.. so further risk off trades to occur.. and AUDUSD to drop further..
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #78,090
  • May 29, 2014 4:31am May 29, 2014 4:31am
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did anyone trade A/J?
the nice chart gave me much confidence to short
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #78,091
  • May 29, 2014 5:14am May 29, 2014 5:14am
Quoting aviz12
AUDUSD is going at 0.88 levels.. there is a trap being formed at 0.9320/30 zone.. Sell on rallies.. {image}
Thank you for posting your trade analysis, rather than criticising other traders which others seems to be more focused on. Hope to see more of this trading based focus.
  • #78,092
  • May 29, 2014 5:16am May 29, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Mr Mao
{image} did anyone trade A/J? the nice chart gave me much confidence to short
Oh no I cant believe my eyes! I hope this is a scalp sir. AJ I am married too and will only go long as you get good +ve swap.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #78,093
  • May 29, 2014 5:22am May 29, 2014 5:22am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Zircon, you are quite obviously retarded, I don't sell anything to noone.
Ruff bonds 10y and aud/usd correlation. Its there but its a correlation that plays out longer term and its coefficient is not insane so to speak at all. No offense but you are kinda a dog chasing its tail unless your longer term trades have either a 200 point sl, or you shorted from the absolute top. I remember your sl's were usually 60 on average however
  • #78,094
  • May 29, 2014 5:22am May 29, 2014 5:22am
waves and cycles...it's all just waves and cycles...

The more things stay the same, the more they need to change....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #78,095
  • May 29, 2014 6:47am May 29, 2014 6:47am
Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} Did you hold on your position ? If you do, i'm happy for you
Ya Kofmaster, took a while but finally got the first number close to .93000. Closed out my other trade also however... No excuse for that one except that it was nice for my account statement this week.
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  • #78,096
  • May 29, 2014 6:50am May 29, 2014 6:50am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} Ya Kofmaster, took a while but finally got the first number close to .93000. Closed out my other trade also however... No excuse for that one except that it was nice for my account statement this week. {image}
Your sitting is tight
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #78,097
  • May 29, 2014 6:57am May 29, 2014 6:57am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} Ruff bonds 10y and aud/usd correlation. Its there but its a correlation that plays out longer term and its coefficient is not insane so to speak at all. No offense but you are kinda a dog chasing its tail unless your longer term trades have either a 200 point sl, or you shorted from the absolute top. I remember your sl's were usually 60 on average however
Quoting myself here since I have some more time at hand right now. Bond correlations should have their influence on your TP's, not your entries. One might disagree and state that TP's generate the RR and should therefore effect your entry. I disagree, longer term like an important monthly trendline that is 150 pips above current price, 10y bond correlations, they can easily make you completely ignore short term sentiment. Short term sentiment is all that matters.

No offense to Ruff again but when looking at AUD/USD he managed to call a bottom a top at least 3 times this week, while suffering 40-70 pips in red before the trade went back to BE, to eventually hit his stop. Bond charts and whatnot look very fancy but are totally obsolete in pinpointing precise entries.

I learned this by my own experience because in my first year (when there were tons of euro crisis headlines )I actually used several correlations for EUR/USD. One was the negative correlation between rising bond rates of for example Greece, and a bearish EUR/USD. Another one was the SP500 that was possitively correlated to EUR/USD. They play out for longer term TP's but are an absolute disaster when it comes to entries.
  • #78,098
  • May 29, 2014 6:58am May 29, 2014 6:58am
be careful ruffy,your hitting demand on your gold chart between 1180 ish - 1252
  • #78,099
  • May 29, 2014 7:03am May 29, 2014 7:03am
I only look at news as a trigger for the real move. As news some of the people say is already factored into the charts. Or rather because I dont know how to analyse fundamental at all. absolutely no idea
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #78,100
  • May 29, 2014 7:03am May 29, 2014 7:03am
the understanding I arrived at with bonds makes a bearish EUR in the midst of rising interest rates make perfect sense to me:

When bond rates rise, this is an indication of the issuer of said bond trying to attract money into the bond by offering better returns at a lower coupon rate. When the issuer doesn't achieve the flow they desire, returns get more attractive with lower coupon rates.

So, in your example, Greece was looking for more money flow into bonds and trying to attract it by offering better returns. Since money wasn't flowing into the EUR to back these bonds, the EUR was bearish, or, not being demanded/bought up..

So, in the midst of lower bond yields, the issuer is achieving the money flow they desire, so, to slow down input to the particular bond, coupon rates rise and yields fall.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
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