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AUD/USD

  • #77,801
  • May 28, 2014 8:39am May 28, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Zircon
{quote} What does your signal chart says to you.??
Well, IMO, danger to buy zone.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #77,802
  • Edited 8:58am May 28, 2014 8:47am | Edited 8:58am
I'd rather hold longs than shorts from these levels..just IMO...

..and I'm cool with that opinion down to the 9180s...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,803
  • May 28, 2014 9:02am May 28, 2014 9:02am
2 different stacked demand zones
1st from.9208-.9212
2nd from .9200-.9208.
the better trade is to wait for penetration of the lower of these 2 zones.
it already pinged the top zone twice on a 10 min chart,but the lower demand area hasn't been touched yet
wait for it....
  • #77,804
  • May 28, 2014 9:10am May 28, 2014 9:10am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Well, IMO, danger to buy zone.
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...psf84a807f.jpg

What does this looks like to you?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #77,805
  • May 28, 2014 9:11am May 28, 2014 9:11am
looks like a circle!
  • #77,806
  • May 28, 2014 9:13am May 28, 2014 9:13am
Quoting nealpek
looks like a circle!


I think he might have been shooting for a bear flag..
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #77,807
  • May 28, 2014 9:17am May 28, 2014 9:17am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} {image} What does this looks like to you?
Looks like a bearish flag to me. I'am going short!! Thanks for the chart.
Want to learn more: HTO Trading
  • #77,808
  • May 28, 2014 9:18am May 28, 2014 9:18am
i could be wrong, but thats trading...from what i see this is a high probability trade.
always trade the highest probability trades, and your account grows, even if your wrong sometimes!!!
  • #77,809
  • May 28, 2014 9:28am May 28, 2014 9:28am
no disrespect intended, a 4hr chart is great for overall structure, but the details are in the lower time frames...
  • #77,810
  • May 28, 2014 9:30am May 28, 2014 9:30am
most recent run down by AUD = 201 pips.

Typical run down = 140ish

Extremes get into the 240s

...and are followed by runs back up of the same and more in many cases...

"probabilities" - well, on a 201 (9408 high to 9207 recent low) pip run down, every pip equates to a .49% chance of price reversing.

At .9220 you have a 92.12% chance of a reversal.

It seems most of us agree on an extended low into the 9180s, for simplicity sake, lets say .9185

from .9408, that's a .44% chance of reversal per pip south of that.

So, at .9218, that's a 83.6% probability of a reversal from the current price based on an extended SHORT run to 9185.

(I was adjusting current price while typing, thus the mention of 9220, then 9218...)
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,811
  • May 28, 2014 9:33am May 28, 2014 9:33am
buying at current bid is just wreckless. daily bearish engulfer. The only way now - to short sell. AUD USD lagging behind GU/NU today, however I don't expect that to last for long. If not sure - check out Gold sell off yesterday/today.
  • #77,812
  • May 28, 2014 9:34am May 28, 2014 9:34am
wow i need a tylenol from that, i prefer plotting supply and demand zones, less brain energy!
  • #77,813
  • May 28, 2014 9:39am May 28, 2014 9:39am
Quoting ruffryders
buying at current bid is just wreckless. daily bearish engulfer. The only way now - to short sell. AUD USD lagging behind GU/NU today, however I don't expect that to last for long. If not sure - check out Gold sell off yesterday/today.
great call mate
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #77,814
  • May 28, 2014 9:40am May 28, 2014 9:40am
Quoting ruffryders
buying at current bid is just wreckless. daily bearish engulfer. The only way now - to short sell. AUD USD lagging behind GU/NU today, however I don't expect that to last for long. If not sure - check out Gold sell off yesterday/today.
Agree. Buying at current level carries much risk unless you have a tight SL. Price remains weak atm.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #77,815
  • May 28, 2014 9:41am May 28, 2014 9:41am
Quoting VaBikePacker
most recent run down by AUD = 201 pips. Typical run down = 140ish Extremes get into the 240s ...and are followed by runs back up of the same and more in many cases... "probabilities" - well, on a 201 (9408 high to 9207 recent low) pip run down, every pip equates to a .49% chance of price reversing. At .9220 you have a 92.12% chance of a reversal. It seems most of us agree on an extended low into the 9180s, for simplicity sake, lets say .9185 from .9408, that's a .44% chance of reversal per pip south of that. So, at .9218, that's a 83.6% probability...
Did you look at weekly chart at all? There are multiple instance of 1000-1500 points moves down.
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  • #77,816
  • May 28, 2014 9:41am May 28, 2014 9:41am
maybe your right Ruffy, but i can't ignore what the chart tells me
  • #77,817
  • May 28, 2014 9:43am May 28, 2014 9:43am
Quoting ruffryders
buying at current bid is just wreckless. daily bearish engulfer. The only way now - to short sell. AUD USD lagging behind GU/NU today, however I don't expect that to last for long. If not sure - check out Gold sell off yesterday/today.

Good RR,

I know where she is going up, my concern is to pick up the bottom only , be well bro
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,818
  • May 28, 2014 9:43am May 28, 2014 9:43am
Quoting nealpek
maybe your right Ruffy, but i can't ignore what the chart tells me
hey no harm done for sure, trade your own plan. It's just that the stats presented are flawed overall. I don't see that AU moves in lots of 200 points.
  • #77,819
  • May 28, 2014 9:45am May 28, 2014 9:45am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} hey no harm done for sure, trade your own plan. It's just that the stats presented are flawed overall. I don't see that AU moves in lots of 200 points.
depends on the TF you're looking at them on.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,820
  • May 28, 2014 9:46am May 28, 2014 9:46am
i'm not looking for 1000 point moves just some daily play money
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