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Measuring the Markets – Ideas

  • #81
  • May 12, 2014 2:42pm May 12, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting Legionary
Come on guys/gals. There has to be some smarter guy/gal than me, willing to help with my misery. I have tried everything I can think of. Pipalicious misunderstood what I was talking about. Or he is blind/deaf/ignorant or whatever. And no, there is no argument between us.THAT IS NOT THE PURPOSE why I write this. You simply can’t find STATISTICALLY objective points for referencing. Big orders go, SR, small orders. Bigger orders, much bigger...then contra. Fake out, fake out, fake out. Breakout. Range. Stall. Reverse, reverse, up/down...down, down...up....price...
Why don't you ask someone for a verified account and buy signals off them? saves chasing your tail learning all the rubbish on FF
tradewith60
  • #82
  • May 12, 2014 8:10pm May 12, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting Legionary
Come on guys/gals. There has to be some smarter guy/gal than me, willing to help with my misery. I have tried everything I can think of. Pipalicious misunderstood what I was talking about. Or he is blind/deaf/ignorant or whatever. And no, there is no argument between us.THAT IS NOT THE PURPOSE why I write this. You simply can’t find STATISTICALLY objective points for referencing. Big orders go, SR, small orders. Bigger orders, much bigger...then contra. Fake out, fake out, fake out. Breakout. Range. Stall. Reverse, reverse, up/down...down, down...up....price...
Do you play any sports? Or mind sport? Maybe try treating trading like playing a sport. The only measure of your success will be sustained profitability; just keep practicing until you get there, I'm sure with 10,000 hours of intense practice, trying to figure out how to improve profitability, you'll eventually find a way to succeed at it like many have. I'm inclined to say that there is no short-cut; no way to measure the market quantitatively, it's all about judgment and intuition.

Ofcourse HFT algos will disagree, but then again they are trading in a different arena, mostly exploiting short-term arbitrage opportunities.

The only thing you'll have to measure about the market is under what conditions do your "method" perform the best, and then you can make slight course corrections along the way.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #83
  • May 27, 2014 3:22pm May 27, 2014 3:22pm
Let's talk about low risk entries...
Low, lower...miniscule risk, come on...
Contrarian, volume, M’s, W’s...whatever...
  • #84
  • May 27, 2014 3:29pm May 27, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting Legionary
Let's talk about low risk entries... Low, lower...miniscule risk, come on... Contrarian, volume, M’s, W’s...whatever...
What are hoping to accomplish?, maybe if it was narrowed down a little someone might be able to point you in the right direction.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #85
  • Edited 5:51pm May 27, 2014 3:59pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting Legionary
Can anyone please explain and say something valid about transcending, bridging, spanning time frames from the smallest change to the bigger time frames? Also, how do you measure confluence between them from the smallest change to the bigger TF? How do you do it? I have many ideas but I would like to hear what others have to say and which way is the simplest and best and why and how. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post4618486 (give no average ideas) Thanks for your time!
The Market is a catch 22, meaning people affect the market by placing orders and then the result of what those orders do, whether go up or down, then in turn,turn back and affect those people again, and affect what they are going to do next. It's the reason why I don't predict, but react when I trade but that's another issue.

The smaller timeframes lead the bigger timeframes, seeing that it takes 60 second to get a minute candle and 24 hours to get a day candle. But here is the kick, even though the smaller timeframe leads, it is still following the past daily candle, because we are always 24 hour behind at any given moment, so it's a catch 22, both in pschology and mechanics. The imbalances of the market are always different from day to day it's a reason why I don't use a chart anymore, today the best trade could be on the 4 hour timeframe, and tomorrow it could be on the daily next day the 1 hour or lower. I hope you get the picture, but the questions you are asking goes contrary to what many traders believe so you probably won't get an answer here you're going to have to blaze your own trail. I have an answer but you're not going to like it, you're going to have to break a lot of "rules" to come to your answer. Hope you understand, I can't explain any better.

I could be wrong but just trying to help. And sorry if it might be a little cryptic, I have been reading over the art of war these past few days and it might be affecting how I phrase things.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #86
  • Edited 6:49pm May 27, 2014 6:15pm | Edited 6:49pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} The Market is a catch 22, meaning people affect the market by placing orders and then the result of what those orders do, whether go up or down, then in turn,turn back and affect those people again, and affect what they are going to do next. It's the reason why I don't predict, but react when I trade but that's another issue. The smaller timeframes lead the bigger timeframes, seeing that it takes 60 second to get a minute candle and 24 hours to get a day candle. But here is the kick, even though the smaller timeframe leads, it is still following...
May I suggest listening carefully to what Sun Tsu says and ignoring his commentators?

When your enemies forces are all in good array, battle flags flying, army freshly on the march --- ignore him!

Just what is one trying to measure?

Something like this:
1. look at the closes of the last three bars on the time scale of your choosing.
2. look at the 8bar simple moving average.
3. If the sma is moving up,
AND the closes of the last three bars are each higher than the one before
AND the distance between the closes of the last two bars is greater than the distance between the first two
BUY

ELSE:
if the sma is moving down
AND the closes of the last three bars are each lower than the one before
AND the distance between the closes of the last two bars is greater than the distance between the first two
SELL

ELSE:
Wait and watch the trades in progress.
If you see they have no future, CLOSE before they lose more money
If you see them come into profit SCALP in this manner:
1. as price moves in your direction, let it.
2. when price stops moving in your direction CLOSE
3. if buy or sell conditions still exist, and market starts moving again in your direction RE-OPEN

The rest of it is money management. Any sort of Anti- Martingale will do well for you.

The hardest part of this plan is seeing that a trade has no future, and closing it at a loss.

The chief global consideration is margin: your margin will only carry so many trades. Then you will get into trouble.

My plan is a little more involved than this, but only a little.

What are you measuring? the change in the closes of the bars in the time scale you like to trade in.

Takes a little experience to acquire a touch for things. Rather like welding or riding a bike. What do you measure? You just ride; you just lay your bead as straight as you can.

Two things to measure: The change in bar closes, and the room in your margin in terms of number of trades.

To go antimartingale, just move the minimum margin percentage you stay above up a little with each sizable advance in your equity.
That way it becomes harder to lose back tomorrow the equity you gained today.
  • #87
  • May 27, 2014 6:22pm May 27, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} May I suggest listening carefully to what Sun Tsu says and ignoring his commentators? When your enemies forces are all in good array, battle flags flying, army freshly on the march --- ignore him! Just what is one trying to measure? Something like this: 1. look at the closes of the last three bars on the time scale of your choosing. 2. look at the 8bar simple moving average. 3. If the sma is moving up, AND the closes of the last three bars are each higher than the one before

Hahah. You might be right about that man, Sun Tzu was something else. I see so much of his teachings in the market's it's scary. If I would choose one book about helping to master the psychology of the market it would be the art of war, hands down. And also in other situations in life, but since we're traders, ama stick to it's relevance in the market.

I dare any trader to read it and not think they were reading about the market in the 21st century. What is new really is old.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #88
  • Edited 6:44pm May 27, 2014 6:25pm | Edited 6:44pm
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

I mean when you read something like that there is nothing else left to say. The man was a true strategist Lol. I was thinking to make a thread about the Art of War and how it relates to the market but I feel lazy, maybe in the next few weeks.


"Something like this:
1. look at the closes of the last three bars on the time scale of your choosing.
2. look at the 8bar simple moving average.
3. If the sma is moving up,
AND the closes of the last three bars are each higher than the one before"

Those are some interesting things to look for, but I normally like to drop hints, instead of giving the answers. To get an answer you have to have a question and I find some traders don't know what questions to ask. Remember there is a lot of money in this so I think that should be all the motivation most need Lol
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #89
  • May 27, 2014 8:16pm May 27, 2014 8:16pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} May I suggest listening carefully to what Sun Tsu says and ignoring his commentators? When your enemies forces are all in good array, battle flags flying, army freshly on the march --- ignore him! Just what is one trying to measure? Something like this: 1. look at the closes of the last three bars on the time scale of your choosing. 2. look at the 8bar simple moving average. 3. If the sma is moving up, AND the closes of the last three bars are each higher than the one before AND the distance between the closes of the last two bars is greater...
You went into more details I see. I don't think he knows what he wants to measure though, but those ideas of yours should give him something to think about.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #90
  • May 28, 2014 1:00am May 28, 2014 1:00am
Quoting saneblane
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War I mean when you read something like that there is nothing else left to say. The man was a true strategist Lol. I was thinking to make...
It is interesting that around the same time - a period known as the Ancient golden age, Socrates said much the same thing.

While we reside in this present world we will never have perfect knowledge of all things. But if we trust in our ability to piece things together, and realize our limitations, we can cope, and sometimes do well in our endeavors. We can ask good questions, raise our awareness of that which is around us, and take our partially effective actions, and those of others, and build on them.

The assumption that we shall always be correct is the Ancient Greek curse called Hubris. The Pride that goeth before the fall.

A Good military officer learns the art of taking decisive action with incomplete information
  • #91
  • May 28, 2014 5:25am May 28, 2014 5:25am
Quoting Legionary
Measuring the Markets – Ideas Requirements: Only serious people can write something really good. If you’re an idiot, guru and....please don’t do it. Tips: What do you measure, how, when,what tools you use,how do you pinpoint entry and exit, how do you avoid ranges and bad trades, how you increase your odds, when you will close trade and why, what is the most important for you in your measurement analysis... Give us some good ideas at least. Or send me a p.m. And many thanks for your time! Legionary
I measure long term directional bias and short term directional bias within that. An eyeball and a bit of thought is a good enough tool for that job, but there are other tools available.

I also measure whether the trade is working out for me. This involves again the eyeballs looking at price chart, and a time factor. While the trading is moving my way, I stay with it as long as my measurement is that the bias hasn't changed and as long as there hasn't been too much time expired with the trade not really moving much.

You want a pinpoint entry and exit? Haha, what else do you want...my house, my wife? That is too much to give to a stranger on a forum.

I don't avoid ranges, they happen, you can't avoid them, just accept and manage the best you can. If in a trade already that's showing profit, a range isn't necessarily a reason to get out, there could be a nice break in your direction. Sometimes I even play the range to make money if the range is big enough.

Good luck
  • #92
  • Edited 12:02pm May 28, 2014 11:00am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} It is interesting that around the same time - a period known as the Ancient golden age, Socrates said much the same thing. While we reside in this present world we will never have perfect knowledge of all things. But if we trust in our ability to piece things together, and realize our limitations, we can cope, and sometimes do well in our endeavors. We can ask good questions, raise our awareness of that which is around us, and take our partially effective actions, and those of others, and build on them. The assumption that we shall always...

I guess greats minds think alike, I never really read much of Socrates, maybe a few quotes here or there but nothing serious but I am not surprised that he and Sun Tzu reflected on the same things, and I might read some of his work soon. It's also true what you say in a sense about putting information together, and it's what I like about FX, I don't know everything, and that's what I know for sure, and I probably know less than I would like to know. Everyday I trade FX I get more questions and I find that a lot of the times it is related to something else that I was researching and sometimes an answer could answer 3 questions. And I try to piece it together as much as I can, but it's delicate work and the amount of information that the market provides is so much that it can be classified as noise, but one man trash is another man treasure I guess.

As to the original question of what to measure, I think the better question would be what not to measure, even if you don't know it or not the market is constantly measuring, every price level it moves shows what is there or what isn't there, every action or failed action could be measured, every move you just have to watch it and see where it's most vulnerable. If I take 4 trade and they win or lose, I check to see why they won or lose, because I can assure you that no two trades are the same. I am not going to recommend anything specific to measure because there are so many, but I will say this, and this is one of the advantage that we have over the market, the market always have to be the market, but a trader doesn't always have to trade, so pick your moments and attack the market when it's most vulnerable. You should be able to find at least one weakness in the market that fits your trading style. Good luck and keep searching I am sure you would find the answer.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #93
  • Oct 21, 2014 1:53pm Oct 21, 2014 1:53pm
Any new ideas?

From my work I can conclude that about 100% of ideas I tried are just pure nonsense.
Pretty random even if things repeat themselves for prolonged time periods.
I guess it should be more sophisticated or something...

Another requirement is - that you don't answer anything here in thread if you are not profitable for years.
Otherwise, I really don't need your answer.
  • #94
  • Oct 23, 2014 3:11am Oct 23, 2014 3:11am
Quoting Legionary
Measuring the Markets – Ideas Requirements: Only serious people can write something really good. If you’re an idiot, guru and....please don’t do it. Tips: What do you measure, how, when,what tools you use,how do you pinpoint entry and exit, how do you avoid ranges and bad trades, how you increase your odds, when you will close trade and why, what is the most important for you in your measurement analysis... Give us some good ideas at least. Or send me a p.m. And many thanks for your time! Legionary
You have to learn Quantitative Finance tools to measure the markets, all these guys posting above are just using plain old technical crap , that is not science it's vodoo.

If you want a scientific measurement then you have to learn to quantify the market.

You can start learning here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_finance
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #95
  • Oct 23, 2014 3:15am Oct 23, 2014 3:15am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} You have to learn Quantitative Finance tools to measure the markets, all these guys posting above are just using plain old technical crap , that is not science it's vodoo. If you want a scientific measurement then you have to learn to quantify the market. You can start learning here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_finance
I quantify the markets using technical voodous
  • #96
  • Oct 23, 2014 3:42am Oct 23, 2014 3:42am
Quoting Kong
{quote} I quantify the markets using technical voodous
Yes, it doesnt matter how you quantify it, but the emphasis is on quantification, I don't care if you use tarot cards to predict the market, but you must show me a statistical report on the accuracy before I would believe you, and not just plain talk. I surely use indicators, but mine are perfectly configured to the market, and not just a wild guess.

Should I use Stochastic ( 6,7,9) or MACD (5,7,20) ? A technical analyst can't answer this question. A quant can, and his answer would be none, since there are better indicators than MACD and Stochastic.

Quoting Legionary
Any new ideas? From my work I can conclude that about 100% of ideas I tried are just pure nonsense. Pretty random even if things repeat themselves for prolonged time periods. I guess it should be more sophisticated or something... Another requirement is - that you don't answer anything here in thread if you are not profitable for years. Otherwise, I really don't need your answer.
My advice is to start off with basic moving averages, and check those first. There are very complicated extrapolation tehniques to forecast the price, but i think that method is easier.

Might wanna check out my thread where i try to quantify the statistical mean of the market: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=503680
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #97
  • Oct 23, 2014 3:56am Oct 23, 2014 3:56am
[quote=Proximus;7819146]{quote} Yes, it doesnt matter how you quantify it, but the emphasis is on quantification, I don't care if you use tarot cards to predict the market, but you must show me a statistical report on the accuracy before I would believe you, and not just plain talk. I surely use indicators, but mine are perfectly configured to the market, and not just a wild guess. Should I use Stochastic ( 6,7,9) or MACD (5,7,20) ? A technical analyst can't answer this question. A quant can, and his answer would be none, since there are better indicators than MACD and Stochastic. {quote}

Well I'm definitely skeptical. When you say "configured to the market" I am interested in what exactly you mean - In a general sense
  • #98
  • Oct 23, 2014 4:02am Oct 23, 2014 4:02am
Quoting Kong
Well I'm definitely skeptical. When you say "configured to the market" I am interested in what exactly you mean - In a general sense
It means that i have statistical proof that my indicator with Y settings has X performance, and not just wild guesses between the different settings with no clue to what the future might hold.

Statistics is the discipline where you look in the past, find regularities and guess the probable future from it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #99
  • Oct 23, 2014 4:28am Oct 23, 2014 4:28am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} It means that i have statistical proof that my indicator with Y settings has X performance, and not just wild guesses between the different settings with no clue to what the future might hold. Statistics is the discipline where you look in the past, find regularities and guess the probable future from it.
How far back are your statistics.. The only problem I have with this is that I'm guessing your indicator is set to some time frame... This is where the wheat is separated form the chaff

And your reply is...
  • #100
  • Oct 23, 2014 4:38am Oct 23, 2014 4:38am
Quoting Kong
{quote} How far back are your statistics.. The only problem I have with this is that I'm guessing your indicator is set to some time frame... This is where the wheat is separated form the chaff And your reply is...
I got 11 years of historical data, i use all of them. Yes i`m using timeframe, but i`m using the best timeframe which filters out the most noise while also leaving good accuracy for my indicator.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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