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Measuring the Markets – Ideas

  • #41
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:01am Jul 15, 2013 8:01am
New ideas...?
  • #42
  • Edited 8:02am Jul 24, 2013 7:44am | Edited 8:02am
Can anyone please explain and say something valid about transcending, bridging, spanning time frames from the smallest change to the bigger time frames?

Also, how do you measure confluence between them from the smallest change to the bigger TF?

How do you do it?

I have many ideas but I would like to hear what others have to say and which way is the simplest and best and why and how.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post4618486

(give no average ideas)

Thanks for your time!
  • #43
  • Jul 24, 2013 8:03am Jul 24, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Legionary
New ideas...?
1 Bar
1 Blonde
2 Guys

2 Guys are arguing over who will take 1 blonde home.
They decide to settle it by a fight.
The guy with the tattoos wins and so takes the blonde home, they have a wild night of wicked sex.
The next day the 2 guys are drinking in the pub again.
The blonde walks through the door.
Who does she sit next to?

Its not a trick question.
Time hides Nothing
  • #44
  • Aug 19, 2013 12:56pm Aug 19, 2013 12:56pm
Any new ideas?

How to filter bad from good trades?Any chance or is it mainly an illusion?

Any good traders to share via p.m. or here some valid trading points?

Thanks.
  • #45
  • Aug 19, 2013 2:21pm Aug 19, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting Legionary
Any new ideas? How to filter bad from good trades?Any chance or is it mainly an illusion? Any good traders to share via p.m. or here some valid trading points? Thanks.
Nothing you ask here is going to help. You have to do the research yourself. You MUST find the probabilities of any given method. Which method you ask...IT DOESN"T FRICKEN MATTER!! pick one any one. Do some research. If you method say that when x,y,z conditions exist I will enter...OK fine...now go back on your charts...ALL OF THEM...and find each time x,y,z conditions occurred. How many of those times did that condition result in a lead on the markets. How many times did it fail..

If you find that in the last 3 years, x,y,z condition occurred 250 times and that of those times, 180 of them produced a lead on the market, that is a 72% chance that this method can make you money...then you must design a method to put those probabilities on your side...then you must actually trade those probabilities and use risk management to minimize the losses you KNOW are a mathematical certainty. As well you must develop a way time maximize the wins that are also a mathematical certainty.

But YOU must do it. Asking people here for ideas is not going to get you what you want. You must do the research YOURSELF. Everyone here has done or is doing the same thing. Each of us is different and trader dave showing you what works for him will not necessarily work for you. Likewise when you FINALLY find something that works for you, even if you teach trader dave, it most likely wont work for him.

You don't "filter" bad trades from good trades...you only follow your method and KNOW that the odds are on your side, and that if you stick to your plan, there is a mathematical certainty of success.

Now just in you still don't understand here it is step by step:

  1. Find a method that suits you - which one? ANY ONE
  2. Find the probabilities of that method...go back in the data and do the homework...don't get lazy
  3. Determine if the probabilities are greater than chance, ie greater than 55% (some use 50%)
  4. If you don't find the probabilities are greater than chance...start over from step one...if you DO find good probabilities, develop a plan to trade with those probabilities in your favor.
  5. STICK TO YOUR PLAN

Questions?

  • #46
  • Aug 20, 2013 5:44am Aug 20, 2013 5:44am
Yes I know what I have to do, but thanks for Your recall.

For that purpose I need more objective ideas - what and how to research.
Sharp-cut and good objective ideas.Not some false and misleading or loose.

There are many, many, many deceiving illusions and you must be very cautious about what you research.

So be objectively creative...
Thanks to anyone willing to give some ideas, help...
  • #47
  • Aug 20, 2013 8:05am Aug 20, 2013 8:05am
Quoting Legionary
Yes I know what I have to do, but thanks for Your recall. For that purpose I need more objective ideas - what and how to research. Sharp-cut and good objective ideas.Not some false and misleading or loose. There are many, many, many deceiving illusions and you must be very cautious about what you research. So be objectively creative... Thanks to anyone willing to give some ideas, help...
I am willing to stimulate your research but YOU have to do the work. Please answer the following questions:

  1. What time frame best suits your life style for trading? In other words what time frame can you commit to checking EVERY SINGLE CANDLE. Many of us have jobs and using intraday charts or even 4 hr charts is just not possible, thus a daily or weekly candle is the best option...what is yours?
  2. What "style" of trading are you most drawn to? (are you comfortable making quick decisions and getting in and out of trades in a single day, or are you comfortable holding for 24 hrs? or even 1 week or more?)
  3. On a scale of 1-5 (1 = worst; 5 = best) honestly rate your ability to make a rule and follow it no matter what. BE HONEST. Do you "fudge" the rules sometimes? You may best judge this by your driving habits...do you come to a COMPLETE stop at every stop sign no matter what? Think about it.

The answers to these questions will help you determine WHERE to start and what types of challenges you may have in your research.

  • #48
  • Aug 20, 2013 12:51pm Aug 20, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Nothing you ask here is going to help. You have to do the research yourself. You MUST find the probabilities of any given method. Which method you ask...IT DOESN"T FRICKEN MATTER!! pick one any one. Do some research. If you method say that when x,y,z conditions exist I will enter...OK fine...now go back on your charts...ALL OF THEM...and find each time x,y,z conditions occurred. How many of those times did that condition result in a lead on the markets. How many times did it fail.. If you find that in the last 3 years, x,y,z condition occurred...
Well put, GS!
  • #49
  • Aug 20, 2013 7:05pm Aug 20, 2013 7:05pm
Quote
What do you measure, how, when,what tools you use,how do you pinpoint entry and exit, how do you avoid ranges and bad trades, how you increase your odds, when you will close trade and why, what is the most important for you in your measurement analysis...

I measure the PA at decision points like supply demand and support resistance. At those decision points I look at PA to tell me if price will reverse or continue then I enter accordingly.

I avoid bad trades by making sure the market have room to run in my direction by seeing where is the next nearest decision point. I want a RR of at least 2. I also start by looking at weekly TF right down to 15 minutes so that I don't trade against a HTF decision point. HTF(High timeframe) DP usually overrun LTF DP.

I close the trade at the next DP or the source of a swing because price can bounce back from there.

My most important measurement is my equity curve. After 3 losses in a role I will reduce my risk pertrade to half. Next I always log my trades in a report, explaining why I took it and what PA made me trigger the trade. I record the results too and pay more attention to my losses.
Riding the order flow
  • #50
  • Aug 20, 2013 7:10pm Aug 20, 2013 7:10pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} As well you must develop a way time maximize the wins that are also a mathematical certainty. But YOU must do it. Asking people here for ideas is not going to get you what you want. You must do the research YOURSELF. Everyone here has done or is doing the same thing. Each of us is different and trader dave showing you what works for him will not necessarily work for you. Likewise when you FINALLY find something that works for you, even if you teach trader dave, it most likely wont work for him.?
I find it hard to agree with his view. I don't think it is pointless if a noob is taught trading methods by an experience trader. I believe you can learn the techniques of good traders and then make it your own.

By all means go and look for good traders with proven record and then I ask him to mentor you and advice you. It is not a good idea trying to come up with something new on your own. You need to be guided by experience hands.
Riding the order flow
  • #51
  • Aug 21, 2013 11:05am Aug 21, 2013 11:05am
@gspajon
I’m sorry but I don’t see almost any relevance in your questions.
Trader will do/must do, what is required.
He will do it preferably faster with perfect execution.
This is a quest for ideas.
Forget average troubles, give me ideas about the possible real solutions.

@Binyamin
How will >>PA tell you if price will reverse or continue<<, objectively ?
Explain objectively, in more detail if you don’t mind.

And thanks for yours time.
  • #52
  • Aug 21, 2013 6:05pm Aug 21, 2013 6:05pm
i am walking.

on my first step, the distance of it is precisely one foot.

my second step will be for a distance of half of the previous step, or six inches.

i have now traveled 1.5 feet by taking two steps.

on my third step, i am taking a step that has a distance of 1/2 of the previous step(6 inches), or three inches.

after taking three steps, i have traveled 12 inches + 6 inches + 3 inches = 21 inches of total travel distance.

...to be continued.
.
.
Attached Image
contact zero 510-684-1114
  • #53
  • Aug 21, 2013 7:16pm Aug 21, 2013 7:16pm
Quoting Legionary
@Binyamin How will >>PA tell you if price will reverse or continue<<, objectively ? Explain objectively, in more detail if you don’t mind. And thanks for yours time.
I will try to be concise. When price enter a decision point which is really a zone not a point, the way price approach it and what price do when it gets there tells me before hand what price is likely to do after it reach the zone.

1 of my my favorite PA to watch out for is engulfing. The engulfing I am talking about is different from those you read in books or online articles. Engulfing is when price go past a decision point (SR or supply and demand in the LTF to the DP you are trading from), it is a sign the big boys wants to push the market in that direction. After it happen I will usually wait for a retrace back to a decision point to ensure a good RR of at least 2.

Engulf happens because the big boys knows where the market is going to go(they control it) only they have the kind of money to engulf and penetrate a decision point, not the retailers. Imagine you are one of the big boys and you want to load up on your billions with plenty of liquidity so what do you do? After the engulf you push back the market into the opposite direction, there the retail day traders and then the indicator crew will think the trend has changed and come in. That is the time where the big boys have the liquidity to enter without to much lost and will buy/sell against the herd (namely the momentum and indicator crew).

After the BB have load up the boat and there are no more retailers the market will go where the BB intend it to go. Happens everywhere in most timeframe in every market. The BB cannot hide their intentions because of their size.

So I measure this PA by recording on what type of DP it happened. This is just 1 of a few things I measure.
Riding the order flow
  • #54
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:19am Aug 22, 2013 7:19am
@Binyamin
Yes, solid explanation. This kind of ideas and thoughts we want.
Nothing new but it is a nice reminder and view.
...Push, liquidity, trap, but can go also into congestion if they’re very hungry / lose power / indecision / or whatever... and so on?
It is an interesting task to try to capture this action objectively and constantly.
Do you have any stats about this "edge"?
(1.risk to reward ratio, 2.percentage win trades to percentage lose trades)
(If you have a will and time you can upload few pictures with examples...)

Thank you very much!
  • #55
  • Edited Aug 23, 2013 1:26am Aug 22, 2013 10:40pm | Edited Aug 23, 2013 1:26am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-08-23 11_28_45-6491440_ OANDA - MetaTrader - Demo Account - [EURGBP,H4].jpg Size: 106 KB

Here is a trade I just entered.

From my experience this kind of setup have at least a 70% win rate with at least RR of 2 for TF of H4 and daily (assuming you execute the trade properly)

For lower timeframe it differs greatly according to the traders skill. In LTF you have to consider more decision points from more timeframe compare to HTF therefore more thorough analysis needs to be made. HTF trading is easier because you have lesser things to consider.

PS: I saw the post from quite some good traders in this thread. I suppose they don't have any incentive to teach their.
Riding the order flow
  • #56
  • Aug 22, 2013 10:47pm Aug 22, 2013 10:47pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here is another obvious one. A setup I am waiting to enter.

For this class of trades I take it is kind of the same for LTF, difference is I have to consider for DP areas in the way of my trades(more work). Rinse and repeat. Easy money.

It will be up to you to do some backtest and trade it.
Riding the order flow
  • #57
  • Aug 23, 2013 12:22am Aug 23, 2013 12:22am
I have mentioned this measurement of Pip Value in one of the thread.

Of course there is a fixed and precise Pip Value in every currency pairs to determine whether price will be bullish or bearish and or price will continue its ascent (bullish) or descent (bearish) and or if price is in a consolidation mode and or price have indeed reverse its course/trend. And I have often wonder how anyone can be a successful trader without this knowledge.

But of course those who knows is unlikely to tell you exactly what those Pip Values are becos there is no reason why they should.

Anyway good luck and continue to seek for it and one day it will come naturally for those who persevered in their quest to be a successful trader.
  • #58
  • Aug 28, 2013 6:13am Aug 28, 2013 6:13am
Quote
Attached Image

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Quote
Attached Image

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Shown live before and after. This post finalizes my point. Perfection.

I have more examples but I don't want to just cherry pick past data with hind side like so many here in this forum.
Riding the order flow
  • #59
  • Sep 23, 2013 7:57am Sep 23, 2013 7:57am
To all, please give us more strict ideas.
Primarily about things which would/can lead the price.
And ideas how you do your calculations.
  • #60
  • Sep 24, 2013 12:43am Sep 24, 2013 12:43am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Measuring the Markets... 1) 6 Trolls decide to race to the bridge (hm 6 trolls I wonder what that could mean? Why the bridge?) 2) All trolls get off to a flyer once the starting gun goes off (why on earth would they wait?) 3) Along the way Troll three strains a hamstring (What would possibly limit this troll from running I thought he was tough.. mmm he was) 4) I bet that all the 5 other trolls beat Troll Three to the bridge unless any other trolls strain hamstrings or any other impediment (huh?)
An explanation of my previous riddle for you good sir =P

Quoting CindyXXXX
Data Trends and Expectation Analysis
Time hides Nothing
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