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MPB Journal

Excellent batch of trades, Mike

My grain of salt on AUD. I'm looking at 100+ pips to the upside.
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"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
Quoting mypipbull
Gold This is ticking time bomb......be it up or down this thing will boogie soon..... Probably down.......unless the Black Swan appears.... {image}
There she goes.....
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Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Hey Stu, I knew about the sliver fix but not the Austrian gold story..... No surprises here....
Think this one will have a bigger impact.
Shanghai Gold Exchange International Board Another Blow To US Dollar

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/shanghai...w-to-us-dollar
If we needed any more proof that the markets are run by a bunch of incompetent crooked muppets, here it is....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...y-accelerating
If this goes any lower they might as well give it away.

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Quoting stewrigh
If this goes any lower they might as well give it away. {image}
It's the ultimate value play. Buying physical is the best option here as you don't need a stop loss.
It may take a while to turn but it will eventually......
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} It's the ultimate value play. Buying physical is the best option here as you don't need a stop loss. It may take a while to turn but it will eventually......
I started trading(alongside stacking) recently and I have no stops set - every time it drops I add another contract - am I mad???.

Nah don't think so.............

Frankly, I believe the “all-in” cost of silver today is far higher than $30/oz.

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/q-a-da...-of-production
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} I started trading(alongside stacking) recently and I have no stops set - every time it drops I add another contract - am I mad???. Nah don't think so............. Frankly, I believe the “all-in” cost of silver today is far higher than $30/oz. http://blog.milesfranklin.com/q-a-da...-of-production
Scaling in selling puts. I'll suffer with you
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} I started trading(alongside stacking) recently and I have no stops set - every time it drops I add another contract - am I mad???. Nah don't think so............. Frankly, I believe the “all-in” cost of silver today is far higher than $30/oz. http://blog.milesfranklin.com/q-a-da...-of-production
Are you mad....maybe?!?!

Silver is also often a by product from other mined metals. So sometimes its just a bonus recovery metal. That makes it a little more difficult to work out the mine's all in cost for that part of the process.

Dedicated silver mines are a different story though.....

Despite all the reasons PM prices should be higher they are simply not at the moment. The longer they stay down the less confidence people (public) have in their ability to rise....people will give up.

No one knows for sure if PM prices will rise or go ape $hit bonkers again. Basic fundamental knowledge suggests it will but it will be met with fierce resistance from TPTB in any case.

The key point I remind myself is that you own 'Physical' for insurance and 'Paper' for speculation.

Hope alls well Stu.
Quoting srt
{quote} Scaling in selling puts. I'll suffer with you
Options are a great tool for this sort of thing......nice
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Are you mad....maybe?!?! Silver is also often a by product from other mined metals. So sometimes its just a bonus recovery metal. That makes it a little more difficult to work out the mine's all in cost for that part of the process. Dedicated silver mines are a different story though..... Despite all the reasons PM prices should be higher they are simply not at the moment. The longer they stay down the less confidence people (public) have in their ability to rise....people will give up. No one knows for sure if PM prices will rise...
Yeah I know I'm a bit(lot) myopic when it comes to PM's - I need to work on that LOL.

Basically at current prices, whatever the cost of production, I believe silver is a steal with limited downside risk.

But having said that I accept that it could drop further - So how low - worst case(I think) maybe $10??? IMO that would be ridiculous but who knows and my margin can handle that. Think it might take til Aug/Sept but eventually this will go up(a lot).

I'm good thanks Mike - hows your trading going?
Quoting srt
{quote} Scaling in selling puts. I'll suffer with you
Never understood options so don't trade them - for instance - why would you sell puts - why not buy calls???
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Never understood options so don't trade them - for instance - why would you sell puts - why not buy calls???
If the price of silver is @ 19 and I buy a call (July 18 call), I need price to rise to make money.
If the price of silver is @ 19 and I sell a put (July 18 put), I only need price to stay above 18 to make money. It doesn't need to rise.
The advantage of buying calls is they provide unlimited profit potential. Selling puts you only make the amount you sold the put for so if prices make a large move higher you don't benefit from the large move.

I've also purchased some ratio put spreads at zero cost to provide a little downside protection. I would profit some now if prices dropped a bit farther & would allow me to add more puts at a better price.
Quoting srt
{quote} If the price of silver is @ 19 and I buy a call (July 18 call), I need price to rise to make money. If the price of silver is @ 19 and I sell a put (July 18 put), I only need price to stay above 18 to make money. It doesn't need to rise. The advantage of buying calls is they provide unlimited profit potential. Selling puts you only make the amount you sold the put for so if prices make a large move higher you don't benefit from the large move. I've also purchased some ratio put spreads at zero cost to provide a little downside protection....
Thanks srt - I still got a lot to learn abt options I think.
$136,000 an ounce - thats silver not gold!!!!!!

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/998.cfm
Quoting srt
{quote} If the price of silver is @ 19 and I buy a call (July 18 call), I need price to rise to make money. If the price of silver is @ 19 and I sell a put (July 18 put), I only need price to stay above 18 to make money. It doesn't need to rise. The advantage of buying calls is they provide unlimited profit potential. Selling puts you only make the amount you sold the put for so if prices make a large move higher you don't benefit from the large move. I've also purchased some ratio put spreads at zero cost to provide a little downside protection....
Who do you trade your options through in the US? Do you do it via a platform or broker?
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Yeah I know I'm a bit(lot) myopic when it comes to PM's - I need to work on that LOL. Basically at current prices, whatever the cost of production, I believe silver is a steal with limited downside risk. But having said that I accept that it could drop further - So how low - worst case(I think) maybe $10??? IMO that would be ridiculous but who knows and my margin can handle that. Think it might take til Aug/Sept but eventually this will go up(a lot). I'm good thanks Mike - hows your trading going?
I understand your position completely......$10 seems nuts but that was the price in late 2008.
There will be 'something' that undoes this charade, I'm sick of wondering when and have given up trying to work it out what.

Trading has been tough you can probably tell from my Trade Explorer.

I am going to start trading small scale futures again. FX markets are pretty starved of volatility atm, that does not help. The obvious 'sure bet' is in the US Indexes.....I'm sure that makes you feel a little ill.

How about you......hows your trading? Who do you trade through?
Mike
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Who do you trade your options through in the US? Do you do it via a platform or broker?
Hi MPB,

I use Interactive Brokers for options trading. Commissions are lower than most online brokers.
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} I understand your position completely......$10 seems nuts but that was the price in late 2008. There will be 'something' that undoes this charade, I'm sick of wondering when and have given up trying to work it out what. Trading has been tough you can probably tell from my Trade Explorer. I am going to start trading small scale futures again. FX markets are pretty starved of volatility atm, that does not help. The obvious 'sure bet' is in the US Indexes.....I'm sure that makes you feel a little ill. How about you......hows your trading? Who...
Yeah I did look at your explorer and I noticed that a lot of the trades you took a hit on eventually came into profit - thats the way it goes sometimes - and thats why I've started experimenting with hedging but I'm not convinced yet.

Tradings ok - in palladium and PC and silver of course and like the vix but not in yet - I think I'm gonna jump in soon tho. The other one I like is oil - still kicking myself I missed hogs and cattle tho.

I use IG Markets and Saxo Bank.
Another reason I'm bullish silver - palladium and silver are normally fairly closely correlated - This is a chart of silver overlaid with palladium.

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