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Higher low, lower high system

  • #7,021
  • May 23, 2014 4:25am May 23, 2014 4:25am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} One of my kind of friends/unofficial mentorees asked me to look at eur and comment with the D lower wicks and ask about the possible sell on move down. Why would this be a sell and uj was a buy with lower wicks. For me it comes down to flow. UJ after the D hammer/pin on 21st May had a hl in Asian session on 22nd, a 1hr positive close 3 bar reversal, the hl's continued going into US session. EUR's D hammers on 15th and 21st were followed by a neg D close and 1hr flow down. See the 1hr chart what we are trying to suggest is a trade, why 'cherry...


Did some typo changes to improve this post.


This is general comment from 1st post to confirm the above:

General
Some knowledge of candlestick analysis is required as you want to be trading the right candles. Theres only about 5 to watch for. If I had to give 1 simple rule of thumb it would be engulfing close (particularly engulfing the last 2 candle closes, see the reversal 3 bar alert attached). Consider key levels for turns (eg round numbers, D and W pivots, some fibs, S/R areas), are we above below 1hr 8 lwma (see chart below should be obvious why) is the 1hr itself on a hl/lh as the higher high higher low or lower high lower low flow is crucial. Once set up on 1hr price should move a pip or so (+ spread on buys) beyond the high low of the set up candle to confirm the trade. The set up candle should have little/no wick in direction of trade eg if buying little/no upper wick.
  • #7,022
  • May 23, 2014 6:33am May 23, 2014 6:33am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Nice, there were clear support levels from Feb - Apr 101.40 down to 100.70 and the pins on 19 and 21 May gave good signal that move lower was rejecting. We are in from 101.46, should we push through the 13 May high 102.30 ish and then perhaps the April double top 102.70 becomes target.
Closing down shortly for the week, exited uj at +42 with the stall at the w pivot. Euraud is at BE so we'll see where that goes. Might pop in later TWT.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,023
  • May 23, 2014 7:12am May 23, 2014 7:12am
Hi Dave,

Nice to have you back.

Enjoy the weekend.
  • #7,024
  • May 25, 2014 3:39am May 25, 2014 3:39am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Closing down shortly for the week, exited uj at +42 with the stall at the w pivot. Euraud is at BE so we'll see where that goes. Might pop in later TWT. {image}
I have put a detailed summary of the EUR and UJ D lower wicks and why they weren't both buys according to our rules that is http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2014/0...al-uj-and.html ok fair enough there was a possible eur buy signal but that was quickly snuffed out on 22 May.
  • #7,025
  • May 25, 2014 8:50am May 25, 2014 8:50am
Hi Dave,

I have a question regarding flow.

Taking a look at AU. On the 22nd, assuming one did not want to go counter trend, at which point would you say 1 hour flow is now down, back in sync with daily trend. Would it be as marked with red lines.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 43 KB


On the 15min chart, lower flow to me would be as marked with the red lines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm15.png Size: 36 KB
  • #7,026
  • May 25, 2014 1:08pm May 25, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting mt2
Hi Dave, I have a question regarding flow. Taking a look at AU. On the 22nd, assuming one did not want to go counter trend, at which point would you say 1 hour flow is now down, back in sync with daily trend. Would it be as marked with red lines. {image} On the 15min chart, lower flow to me would be as marked with the red lines. {image}
The move above 0.9242 marked x is where the lower high lower low flow is broken.

The higher lows have the up arrows.

The arrows down are for me where the higher lows have failed and given lower highs in resumption of trend. Those are the 3 bar reversal/engulfing closes/little no lower wicks (as we are selling)/price goes below the low on the following candle to confirm the trade.

When 0.9212 - ish held at the US close on 22nd all further sells even if on lower highs would be needed to be taken with great care. Either moving stop to BE quickly or taking half off at lows and reducing stop, as you never know when the level will hold and jump up.

As you have suggested using 15 min to get a greater distance between entry and the low would be a good option to take. Either where you shown or 12 or so candles to the right as moves up clearly going nowhere and the 15 min close is right on or a fraction below the immediate range.
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  • #7,027
  • May 25, 2014 1:57pm May 25, 2014 1:57pm
Thanks thats clear now.
  • #7,028
  • May 27, 2014 4:22am May 27, 2014 4:22am
EurAud

I have placed a pending order as per chart.

Daily has now turned below MA on RSI. 4 Hr has lower H/L flow. Rejection of W pivot.

Previously closed 1 Hr candle has a lower H, with a close below the close of the previous 2 bars, thus completing the 3 bar reversal pattern. Waiting for low of candle to be taken out.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,029
  • May 27, 2014 4:30am May 27, 2014 4:30am
Quoting mt2
EurAud I have placed a pending order as per chart. Daily has now turned below MA on RSI. 4 Hr has lower H/L flow. Rejection of W pivot. Previously closed 1 Hr candle has a lower H, with a close below the close of the previous 2 bars, thus completing the 3 bar reversal pattern. Waiting for low of candle to be taken out. {image}
Yes we are below D 8lwma on an open candle, and open candles are there to play with your mind. 4hr is on lower highs and the base from 21 May 1.4735 has broken lower and looks good, but theres lots of range in any potential low looking at Apr '14's lows.

I agree bias is down but theres nothing I see that has me dancing on the table. Treating this like a Monday morning with the UK and US hols yesterday so will be more interested in what US session brings.
  • #7,030
  • May 27, 2014 4:35am May 27, 2014 4:35am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Yes we are below D 8lwma on an open candle, and open candles are there to play with your mind. 4hr is on lower highs and the base 1.4735 has broken lower and looks good, but theres lots of range in any potential low looking at Apr '14's base. I agree bias is down but theres nothing I see that has me dancing on the table. Treating this like a Monday morning with the UK and US hols yesterday so will be more interested in what US session brings.
Had another look and really struggling to like any euraud trade buy or sell - for now. We have had our 3rd leg down (OK I admit my Elliott wave knowledge is scarily bad) and just haven't been convincing D candle closes at all for the last few days. Perhaps you are getting in on what will be a strong down day, we'll see.
  • #7,031
  • May 27, 2014 5:27am May 27, 2014 5:27am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Had another look and really struggling to like any euraud trade buy or sell - for now. We have had our 3rd leg down (OK I admit my Elliott wave knowledge is scarily bad) and just haven't been convincing D candle closes at all for the last few days. Perhaps you are getting in on what will be a strong down day, we'll see.
Or not after the last candle close. Orders cancelled. Thanks for heads up re April. I didnt look far enough left.
  • #7,032
  • May 27, 2014 5:34am May 27, 2014 5:34am
Quoting mt2
{quote} Or not after the last candle close. Orders cancelled. Thanks for heads up re April. I didnt look far enough left.
You could still be right we'll see what US session brings.
  • #7,033
  • May 27, 2014 8:48am May 27, 2014 8:48am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} You could still be right we'll see what US session brings.
Move into US session gave a 3 bar reversal (close below prev 2 candle closes) evening star pattern on 1hr, little/no lower wick on the candle back into trend. Sold euraud 1.4734, just shy of +20 at the mo and stop at BE as we have a low from European session right here and we are in/around the mentioned lows. If we pop lower fine, if level holds and we are out at BE fine.

Will post charts if trade follows through.
  • #7,034
  • May 27, 2014 9:07am May 27, 2014 9:07am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Move into US session gave a 3 bar reversal (close below prev 2 candle closes) evening star pattern on 1hr, little/no lower wick on the candle back into trend. Sold euraud 1.4734, just shy of +20 at the mo and stop at BE as we have a low from European session right here and we are in/around the mentioned lows. If we pop lower fine, if level holds and we are out at BE fine. Will post charts if trade follows through.
Short and sweet (not so) that one, won't be posting chart out at BE.
  • #7,035
  • May 28, 2014 3:17am May 28, 2014 3:17am
Hi Dave,

Nothing this morning EA, will wait for NY.
  • #7,036
  • May 28, 2014 4:05am May 28, 2014 4:05am
Quoting mt2
Hi Dave, Nothing this morning EA, will wait for NY.
Hi there

I saw Islander on the USDTRY thread which would normally be something to get a persons attention. I'd like to look at the pair a little more but applying the same rules after yesterdays positive close this 3 bar reversal bounce off W M3 would have gotten my interest but too early local time.

Adding this pair to watch list.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,037
  • May 30, 2014 3:37am May 30, 2014 3:37am
On 28th May gu D had an overly large candle with no follow through. Often these are the signal of the end of a run. This was followed by a doji. The move lower stopped at the RN/W M0.

The 4 hr chart is showing this with a clear double bottom/higher low. 1hr showing a higher low this morning. In at 1.6725.

What was a very nice move up to 1.6757 W M1 this morning is now retracing very quickly. So perhaps my view of the market and possible move up is wrong, as I don't subscribe to the once you're in let TP or SL get hit point of view will most likely move stop to BE, we'll see.
  • #7,038
  • May 30, 2014 5:11am May 30, 2014 5:11am
Quoting Vantage
On 28th May gu D had an overly large candle with no follow through. Often these are the signal of the end of a run. This was followed by a doji. The move lower stopped at the RN/W M0. The 4 hr chart is showing this with a clear double bottom/higher low. 1hr showing a higher low this morning. In at 1.6725. What was a very nice move up to 1.6757 W M1 this morning is now retracing very quickly. So perhaps my view of the market and possible move up is wrong, as I don't subscribe to the once you're in let TP or SL get hit point of view will most likely...
Hi Dave,

I'm with the 1st part of your post. I don't understand your last sentence ".. move stop to BE". As i see it you would not have entered as the candle that closed on 1.6757 was followed by a HL which closed on 1.6754. This would have been your entry candle, but an entry did not trigger. So I'm not sure if youre in a trade.

I have had no entries for the last couple of days.
  • #7,039
  • May 30, 2014 5:15am May 30, 2014 5:15am
Quoting mt2
{quote} Hi Dave, I'm with the 1st part of your post. I don't understand your last sentence ".. move stop to BE". As i see it you would not have entered as the candle that closed on 1.6757 was followed by a HL which closed on 1.6754. This would have been your entry candle, but an entry did not trigger. So I'm not sure if youre in a trade. I have had no entries for the last couple of days.
I'm in from 1.6725 after a bout of insomnia this morning very early local time, the hammer Asian session. Not at BE yet but getting very close to that decision.

Mrs V and I didn't trade yesterday euraud, gbpaud moved too early in Asian session, ej not in front of computer.

I was watching this after the D shooting star but not yet comfortable with the pair and left.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,040
  • May 30, 2014 5:20am May 30, 2014 5:20am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I'm in from 1.6725 after a bout of insomnia this morning very early local time, the hammer Asian session. Not at BE yet but getting very close to that decision.
Thats clear now.

Wow that was really early.
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