Do you believe this market is random? | Page 29 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe this market is random?

  • #561
  • May 26, 2014 10:59am May 26, 2014 10:59am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Again with the clues nonsense. you have no proof that market is non random. There are many here in the forum who post that one trade that works out of 10 failures and they try to explain this is how markets work. What they don't show you are the hundreds of failed trades executing the same strategy. Telling me to read your post doesn't help. One wonders if you people really have an edge what are you doing on forums?

I am here because trading is boring and it helps to talk to a few trader sometimes. This is not like most professions where you go to work and rub shoulders with your buddies at the wine cooler. And to also get a few ideas.

Here is a fine example, just a few post ago, Suprasense said that what I notice might be the effects of the big guys defending options stirkes. You know what I am going to do, I am not going to wine like a baby and ask him for proof, I am going research a few years of past history and see if there might be any significance to this and get my proof. And if it is true then I assign this significance then I look out for it in the future. That's how you get better, you're question is like asking what red looks like, how am I going to prove that me and you see the color red the same, how?

If the market is random for you then that's you're problem, whether it remains that way for you is your business. I can give to shits about it.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #562
  • May 26, 2014 11:21am May 26, 2014 11:21am
The believers v/s the non-believers...it will never end. Both camps strident in their views.

Me? I believe in easily read and tradeable patterns. Markets are not random - otherwise you would not be able to trade them successfully. It's self-evident.

Smiler
Keep It Simple Stupid
  • #563
  • May 26, 2014 11:28am May 26, 2014 11:28am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} LOL. High volume and i am the one who doesn't know what i m talking about. Hahahahahha.
This is last post I am going to waste on you so listen to it closely. If you don't even know something as basic as Supply and Demand then you shouldn't trade. The example I gave was when I traded on a chart, I don't anymore because I have grown and learned more, and my knowledge is more rounded, but it's the basics that are the building block that got me where I am.I advise you to read up about how the market works before you talk about forex and make an ass out of yourself. Be well and have a nice day.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #564
  • May 26, 2014 11:34am May 26, 2014 11:34am
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Again with the clues nonsense. you have no proof that market is non random. There are many here in the forum who post that one trade that works out of 10 failures and they try to explain this is how markets work. What they don't show you are the hundreds of failed trades executing the same strategy. Telling me to read your post doesn't help. One wonders if you people really have an edge what are you doing on forums?
What kind of proof are you looking for. Do some research into various successful traders and hedge funds that have had great returns over many years, George Soros for example and others. If they have had such returns over such a long time, it indicates that there is something there which they can see and are taking advantage of. In other words, you can trade profitably. Whether you want to call that random or not, doesn't really matter, because different people have different definitions of the word. And it's just a word after all. So there is plenty of proof that the markets can be traded profitably, what more do you want?
  • #565
  • May 26, 2014 12:02pm May 26, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} What kind of proof are you looking for. Do some research into various successful traders and hedge funds that have had great returns over many years, George Soros for example and others. If they have had such returns over such a long time, it indicates that there is something there which they can see and are taking advantage of. In other words, you can trade profitably. Whether you want to call that random or not, doesn't really matter, because different people have different definitions of the word. And it's just a word after all. So there...
Better post.

Question is why is there only ONE George Soros and only ONE Tudor. if people could really take advantage of markets like them, we would have more George soros. So what edge did he have , only he knows.

I m not saying people can't trade profitably. All i m saying is market is random.
  • #566
  • May 26, 2014 1:10pm May 26, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting zamfir
{quote} Better post. Question is why is there only ONE George Soros and only ONE Tudor. if people could really take advantage of markets like them, we would have more George soros. So what edge did he have , only he knows. I m not saying people can't trade profitably. All i m saying is market is random.
There's also only one Zamfir, and only one Suprasense. There are lots of successful traders and there are lots of algos in the markets. Some of them are just executing orders, but some of these algos are very profitable, trading multiple times a day. Unlike a human, an algo will be switched off if it is not working.

Trading is competitive by nature. So not everyone can win, we must have losers. And those who are really good will soon have lots of money, so we will end up with a smaller number of big winners, and a large number of smaller losers. It's not quite as simple as that, but you get the idea. So it has to be that way that there aren't so many big winners.

As I said, depending on how you define the term random, the market is or it isn't. Even when you understand it quite well and have traded for years, there are still times where something happens that surprises you. The flash crash was an example. Crashes happen, but the speed, the panic, the way spreads on highly liquid instruments became huge etc. So there's nothing wrong with calling it random.

But yeah, it can be traded profitably as you say, and you can learn to predict with some accuracy, but for me it's more important to be able to react in the correct way rather than predict.
  • #567
  • May 26, 2014 4:35pm May 26, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} It helps man, and I thought about that too, but like I said if these are true then it is clear direction that someone who ever they are putting a road block on the chart so price can't pass at any cost, or they are so confident in price direction that they are bold enough to do it, or maybe they put it there so when price come down it can be filled fully, but for whatever reason the market is affected by it a lot. I thought about the partial also, and it seem to hold up under scrutiny.
Or maybe there is simply more buyers than sellers at that level.
like totally failure brah
  • #568
  • May 26, 2014 5:02pm May 26, 2014 5:02pm
I believe the market is just random enough to be fun, and orderly enough to make profit, if you are careful, understanding , and reactive.

As in real life, following any rule unthinkingly can get you in trouble.

quiet day demonstrates what happens when no banks are around to push things, doesn't it. There are some 25% of traders who make money doing what they do, according to statistics. That 95% thing is a "factoid" a lie repeated so often on the internet that people imagine it to be true.

Most of these traders don't advertise themselves, because the army of detractors is out there, ready to make mincemeat out of every reasonable thing anyone proposes.

I have found profitable reasonable ides in many of the things Saneblane says.

I do not believe in trash talk.

I believe that any person with a set of eyes has seen things I have not seen, knows things I do not know, Has a correct view of somethings I hold in error.

There is only One Being however that possesses perfect knowledge.

I have subscribed to Sanblane.
  • #569
  • May 26, 2014 5:07pm May 26, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting Smiler
The believers v/s the non-believers...it will never end. Both camps strident in their views. Me? I believe in easily read and tradeable patterns. Markets are not random - otherwise you would not be able to trade them successfully. It's self-evident. Smiler
your patterns are an illusion, or they could be quantified and a robot made to trade "your patterns" and you would be rich
tradewith60
  • #570
  • May 26, 2014 5:07pm May 26, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} Or maybe there is simply more buyers than sellers at that level.
Lol this sentence is just funny

I tried to teach you guys a little bit about the mechanics of the market in my previous posts here, but looks like some of you guys never learn ...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #571
  • May 26, 2014 5:19pm May 26, 2014 5:19pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
I believe the market is just random enough to be fun, and orderly enough to make profit, if you are careful, understanding , and reactive. As in real life, following any rule unthinkingly can get you in trouble. quiet day demonstrates what happens when no banks are around to push things, doesn't it. There are some 25% of traders who make money doing what they do, according to statistics. That 95% thing is a "factoid" a lie repeated so often on the internet that people imagine it to be true. Most of these traders don't advertise themselves, because...

Thanks for the vote of confidence man, I don't even know how to reply to that, I read your post too and me and you think a like in a lot of regards, but I am never satisfied and I don't think I will ever be with the knowledge I have. But thanks for the vote of confidence again.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #572
  • May 26, 2014 5:23pm May 26, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} Or maybe there is simply more buyers than sellers at that level.

That's pretty obvious if price reacts that way. But it's not the orders that baffles me, it's the time they come in. Anyway It's not really important in the grand scheme of things, just something that nags at me.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #573
  • May 26, 2014 6:50pm May 26, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Lol this sentence is just funny I tried to teach you guys a little bit about the mechanics of the market in my previous posts here, but looks like some of you guys never learn ...
Glad you got a laugh
like totally failure brah
  • #574
  • May 27, 2014 5:00am May 27, 2014 5:00am
Quoting simonb
{quote} Glad you got a laugh
Dont want to be rude, but i already explained a few pages ago how the market works. There cant be more buyers than sellers at any level,there must be the same number of buyer and seller at any level, thats not what causes sudden spikes
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #575
  • May 27, 2014 5:02am May 27, 2014 5:02am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Dont want to be rude, but i already explained a few pages ago how the market works. There cant be more buyers than sellers at any level,there must be the same number of buyer and seller at any level, thats not what causes sudden spikes
I see what you're saying.. But I disagree, because if price can't be filled at a certain level (hence more of one than the other) it will go the next price level to seek the liquidity it needs. Simple supply and demand

Glad I could help
like totally failure brah
  • #576
  • May 27, 2014 5:13am May 27, 2014 5:13am
Quoting simonb
{quote} I see what you're saying.. But I disagree, because if price can't be filled at a certain level (hence more of one than the other) it will go the next price level to seek the liquidity it needs. Simple supply and demand Glad I could help
It needs to be for someone to be on the other end of the trade...How do you execute your trade if there is nobody at the other end?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #577
  • May 27, 2014 5:21am May 27, 2014 5:21am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} It needs to be for someone to be on the other end of the trade...How do you execute your trade if there is nobody at the other end?
Exactly.. You don't, and that's why price moves to someone who is at the other end

I want 100 apples for $2
But Jim will only sell me 98 apples for $2
Jill won't sell me 2 apples for $2, but she will sell me two apples for $2.10

Price moved, my buying moved it. More "buyers" or buy side flow, than "sellers" or sell side flow.
like totally failure brah
  • #578
  • Edited 7:07am May 27, 2014 5:25am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting simonb
{quote} Exactly.. You don't, and that's why price moves to someone who is at the other end I want 100 apples for $2 But Jim will only sell me 98 apples for $2 Jill won't sell me 2 apples for $2, but she will sell me two apples for $2.10 Price moved, my buying moved it. More "buyers" or buy side flow, than "sellers" or sell side flow.
But if you dont execute your trade then how can be more buyers than sellers, if price starts from equilibrium

You dont even think about what you say


For example:

There are no apples on the market.Or all apples are sold and all sellers are paid, so its equilibrium.Joes comes to the market and want to sell his apple, but there is nobody to buy it ...Joe cant sell his apple, he doesnt get paid, he is left with its apple on a pending sell until he gets a buyer who will buy his apple.
The apple market is still in equilibrium, no more sellers than buyers ,because Joe didnt sold anything yet, and after he finds a buyer for his apple, the transaction is complete, the market will be again in equilibrium, only the price will move.Its only non-equilibrium until the transaction is in process, after its complete, there is equilibrium again.

Now the markets are more tricky because not everyone takes profit at the same time, or gets stopped out at the same time ,so its non-equilibrium at any given time, thats why price move suddently, because either TP or SL cluster gets hit, but i assure you there are the same number or buyers and sellers at any given time (or i technical terms same lot size on sell side and same lot size on buy side)

I hope its more clear this way
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #579
  • May 27, 2014 9:52am May 27, 2014 9:52am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Dont want to be rude, but i already explained a few pages ago how the market works. There cant be more buyers than sellers at any level,there must be the same number of buyer and seller at any level, thats not what causes sudden spikes
You are calling a buyer someone who has actually bought. And so yes there need to be exactly the same number of contracts bought as sold. That's clear. However a buyer can be considered someone who wishes to transact (buy) at a particular level. There may be more of these than there are sellers at this level. Since the sellers can't fulfil all the buyers, the buyers either have to raise the price they are willing to pay or not get filled. This too is obvious and is what people mean when they say more buyers than sellers. It would be helpful if you thought a bit more about your comments too before dismissing others.
  • #580
  • May 27, 2014 10:20am May 27, 2014 10:20am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} You are calling a buyer someone who has actually bought. And so yes there need to be exactly the same number of contracts bought as sold. That's clear. However a buyer can be considered someone who wishes to transact (buy) at a particular level. There may be more of these than there are sellers at this level. Since the sellers can't fulfil all the buyers, the buyers either have to raise the price they are willing to pay or not get filled. This too is obvious and is what people mean when they say more buyers than sellers. It would be helpful...
So a buyer is also want - to- buy-er too, ok.In this case it makes sense.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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