Do you believe this market is random? | Page 28 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe this market is random?

  • #541
  • May 25, 2014 8:45pm May 25, 2014 8:45pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Because i have a long target and a short target, and i know that both of them will be targeted and hit in some point in time, but i dont know when, it may take days, weeks, months ,years. So instead of blindly guessing which way it will go, after i see where it goes, its easy to determine that after that spot will be hit, then the next target will be my other TP. So far i had 67 trades and not a single loser yet I wont put that TE public, but you get the idea.
I think if my only options were to do what you are doing, or rely on "blindly guessing", then I'd do what you are doing. However, if I looked at my trading account and had open hedged positions, I would quickly know that my margin account was under utilized. I think it's time to move on.
  • #542
  • May 26, 2014 3:44am May 26, 2014 3:44am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} ...buying and selling that moves both market, but I guess it's harder track and assign significance to these forces.
^^^ This answers it in the least amount of words. The 'core' being organizing/grouping the different forces.
Track, Group, Trade.

What im curious about is grouping those where huge influx of buys are dumped yet price 'resists' to move up (which says something very important).
  • #543
  • May 26, 2014 9:33am May 26, 2014 9:33am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Thanks a lot man that made some sense, If I can sit at home and get this information from retail info, then imagine what banks can do, I was wondering why a bank would put in orders at end of day when liquidity is drying up unless they know something and are confident in price movement and are working together. I have heard that banks use basic tools like retailers, but I still don't think I believe that, I believe that even in a bank there are some traders who have access to more information than others. I am trying to profile the market...
Do you have a chart of what you're referring to?

Depending on what you're trying to accomplish, it may be advantageous to trade in less liquid times.

Banks do have better information and tools for forex than most retail traders.
  • #544
  • May 26, 2014 9:43am May 26, 2014 9:43am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Do you have a chart of what you're referring to? Depending on what you're trying to accomplish, it may be advantageous to trade in less liquid times. Banks do have better information and tools for forex than most retail traders.
No I don't have a chart of it, I didn't pick it up on a chart to begin with.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #545
  • May 26, 2014 9:43am May 26, 2014 9:43am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Lol No man I am not a conspiracy theorist either but the orders don't lie. Trust me I don't like to talk to deep about my research but this one had me scratching my head for a while. Anyway, back to the topic at hand, No I don't believe the market is random.
A large enough order or group of them will act as support or resistance. The first touch might only fill a portion of the orders and so with liquidity still ripe at that level price will either directly (through stop hunting) or indirectly be attracted bCk to that level which can now now absorb fresh buying/selling. A large order can never be filled in one go, unless the trader is willing to have the price slip against his/her positions.

Not sure if that helps you or if I completely missed the point.
like totally failure brah
  • #546
  • May 26, 2014 9:52am May 26, 2014 9:52am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} ^^^ This answers it in the least amount of words. The 'core' being organizing/grouping the different forces. Track, Group, Trade. What im curious about is grouping those where huge influx of buys are dumped yet price 'resists' to move up (which says something very important).
It is the answer but it's not a simple one to get. Getting a signal on EURUSD and at the same time there is also a signal on AUDUSD, which one do you pick? and the crazy thing is one is bull and one is bear, they both affect the USDX, so which one do you pick? some people might use news and announcements to try and get this answer and most likely it will help them for that instant, but in FX this happens almost every minute. You can get all valid signals and the market still move against you all the time. That's why I decided to profile the most significant orders in the market, it took a lot of research but it can be done. It's a lonely road, but it's also a rewarding one. Good luck.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #547
  • May 26, 2014 9:55am May 26, 2014 9:55am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I think if my only options were to do what you are doing, or rely on "blindly guessing", then I'd do what you are doing. However, if I looked at my trading account and had open hedged positions, I would quickly know that my margin account was under utilized. I think it's time to move on.
Yes hedging requires extra margin to cover your losses, so its a slow, but safe way.Its better to use it on large accounts where a small % is big money.So its a conservative trading method.

I also have agressive trading methods for small accounts where high % growth is small money, yet sustainable and not overleveraged.

I prefer to use them both depending on market volatility.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #548
  • May 26, 2014 9:57am May 26, 2014 9:57am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} It is the answer but it's not a simple one to get. Getting a signal on EURUSD and at the same time there is also a signal on AUDUSD, which one do you pick? and the crazy thing is one is bull and one is bear, they both affect the USDX, so which one do you pick? some people might use news and announcements to try and get this answer and most likely it will help them for that instant, but in FX this happens almost every minute. You can get all valid signals and the market still move against you all the time. That's why I decided to profile...
Take both signals.
  • #549
  • May 26, 2014 9:57am May 26, 2014 9:57am
Quoting simonb
{quote} A large enough order or group of them will act as support or resistance. The first touch might only fill a portion of the orders and so with liquidity still ripe at that level price will either directly (through stop hunting) or indirectly be attracted bCk to that level which can now now absorb fresh buying/selling. A large order can never be filled in one go, unless the trader is willing to have the price slip against his/her positions. Not sure if that helps you or if I completely missed the point.

It helps man, and I thought about that too, but like I said if these are true then it is clear direction that someone who ever they are putting a road block on the chart so price can't pass at any cost, or they are so confident in price direction that they are bold enough to do it, or maybe they put it there so when price come down it can be filled fully, but for whatever reason the market is affected by it a lot. I thought about the partial also, and it seem to hold up under scrutiny.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #550
  • May 26, 2014 10:09am May 26, 2014 10:09am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} It helps man, and I thought about that too, but like I said if these are true then it is clear direction that someone who ever they are putting a road block on the chart so price can't pass at any cost, or they are so confident in price direction that they are bold enough to do it, or maybe they put it there so when price come down it can be filled fully, but for whatever reason the market is affected by it a lot. I thought about the partial also, and it seem to hold up under scrutiny.
Well the reason I asked for a chart was to see what sort of movement you're referring to. For instance, is it possible what you have seen is an institution defending a large option position?

In terms of the effect running into the next day, well if traders see it isn't able to get through, then of course it must go the other way
  • #551
  • May 26, 2014 10:14am May 26, 2014 10:14am
Fundamentals move the FOREX market like it or not. Look at EURUSD today!
The news is good for the Euro, so it moves up as it should. News like the
elections in Ukraine and the inflow of capital into the EU & mega deals by
Russia and China where they use their own currency to trade! Candlesticks
and Tech. chart mean nothing to me, just news. I challenge you all to try it.
You say, " its random "?
  • #552
  • May 26, 2014 10:14am May 26, 2014 10:14am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Take both signals.

Hahaah. tried that before and sometimes they both work, but the other times one win and one lose so it's not something you can rely on enough to make money, and let's not forget there are more currencies that are most likely going to affect the USDX at the same time too. But let's say in a perfect world that there are only 2 currencies trading against the USD, EUD and AUS the strengh and weaknesses of the USD could be equally calculated back to what these currencies do, if one is bull and one is bear, one trade could win or lose, one could win a lot or one could lose a lot, or they could even cancel each other out and not move in any significant direction, so even in this instant it still requires skil.

But in the real world we have more than 2 currencies, the market might be more bias towards others at different times of the day, but unless you can track and assign significants to the orders then It could become hard to make money, some people use confirmed support with long tail candles to mark the most significant buyings or selling, but the issue still remains. Is this signal the best one to trade at any given moment?
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #553
  • May 26, 2014 10:25am May 26, 2014 10:25am
IS the market random ?

Answer: Yes.

Reason is because the order flow is random. This is why S/R breaks and hold at random times. You can NEVER in advance predict that price will turn or move because you have no idea when the order flow changes. Every hour/minutes/second the orders get changed/removed/added.

If you think that market is not random , then you clearly have a edge and you will be consistent in your trading. But do we see that?. Even you THINK you have a edge, that would mean you know where the orders are sitting in advance. Think how is that possible? Simply not possible. This would mean that insitituions will have to trade like a robot doing the same thing over and over again, but that's not how they trade.

Its a joke how many people in the commerical thread try to predict order flow and the like.

This is the reason why trading is so very difficult. Doesn't matter what system or method you trade, it will FAIL over a periodof time and as a result your a/c will be blown. People think that if they win consistently for a month or two they have an edge. So when it starts to fail, it will fail spectacularly and they won't know why things are failing and then they move on to a new trading method/strategy only to repeat the process again and again and again...

So don't let anyone tell you that they have an edge and that they can predict or know where order flow is. They are trying to sell you because they know their system/method has failed.
  • #554
  • May 26, 2014 10:31am May 26, 2014 10:31am
Quoting zamfir
IS the market random ? Answer: Yes. Reason is because the order flow is random. This is why S/R breaks and hold at random times. You can NEVER in advance predict that price will turn or move because you have no idea when the order flow changes. Every hour/minutes/second the orders get changed/removed/added. If you think that market is not random , then you clearly have a edge and you will be consistent in your trading. But do we see that?. Even you THINK you have a edge, that would mean you know where the orders are sitting in advance. Think how...

wrong...Market is not random

if random..better u die like fish in the sea...

if random.. why we trade..are we gambling??

if random.. why exchange was exist??

i suggest u..quit from become trader..u will never get anything..

or u can married four girl at same time?


S-T-U-P-I-D-I-O
  • #555
  • May 26, 2014 10:32am May 26, 2014 10:32am
Quoting zamfir
IS the market random ? Answer: Yes. Reason is because the order flow is random. This is why S/R breaks and hold at random times.

I would like to know how much research and trading have you done to come to that answer?

Even you THINK you have a edge, that would mean you know where the orders are sitting in advance. Think how is that possible? Simply not possible. This would mean that insitituions will have to trade like a robot doing the same thing over and over again, but that's not how they trade.
That's another misconception, you don't even need to know where these orders are to trade them.

Another trader looking for answers in the wrong places. Good luck and may the pip be with you.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #556
  • May 26, 2014 10:41am May 26, 2014 10:41am
So you guys must be consistent then, i guess.

Why do you attack me instead of giving positive feedback and tell me where i am wrong?.but you don't do that , because you have no answer.

if market is not random. PROVE IT.
  • #557
  • May 26, 2014 10:45am May 26, 2014 10:45am
Quoting zamfir
So you guys must be consistent then, i guess. Why do you attack me instead of giving positive feedback and tell me where i am wrong?.but you don't do that , because you have no answer. if market is not random. PROVE IT.

Market move by people

People move by reason

reason is not random

it is fulfill of requirement

Move by reason

or exist without reason

Think ..
  • #558
  • May 26, 2014 10:45am May 26, 2014 10:45am
Quoting zamfir
So you guys must be consistent then, i guess. Why do you attack me instead of giving positive feedback and tell me where i am wrong?.but you don't do that , because you have no answer. if market is not random. PROVE IT.

We have spoken about this for a while, you just didn't bother to read. Heck even the few post I made on this thread should give you some clues. This is not some little kids game, the stakes are high and the rewards are great, what would it benefit anyone here to prove anything to anyone? I make my post and if somethings mesh for you then good and I know what to screen, and who most likely know how to trade on here without needing any proof. Lol ask the market for proof.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #559
  • May 26, 2014 10:48am May 26, 2014 10:48am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} We have spoken about this for a while, you just didn't bother to read. Heck even the few post I made on this thread should give you some clues. This is not some little kids game, the stakes are high and the rewards are great, what would it benefit anyone here to prove anything to anyone? I make my post and if somethings mesh for you then good and I know what to screen, and who most likely know how to trade on here without needing any proof. Lol ask the market for proof.

Agree with you
  • #560
  • May 26, 2014 10:50am May 26, 2014 10:50am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} We have spoken about this for a while, you just didn't bother to read. Heck even the few post I made on this thread should give you some clues. This is not some little kids game, the stakes are high and the rewards are great, what would it benefit anyone here to prove anything to anyone? I make my post and if somethings mesh for you then good and I know what to screen, and who most likely know how to trade on here without needing any proof. Lol ask the market for proof.

Again with the clues nonsense. you have no proof that market is non random. There are many here in the forum who post that one trade that works out of 10 failures and they try to explain this is how markets work. What they don't show you are the hundreds of failed trades executing the same strategy.

Telling me to read your post doesn't help. One wonders if you people really have an edge what are you doing on forums?
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