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NZD/USD

  • #5,361
  • May 23, 2014 11:24pm May 23, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting zew
{quote} USDINDEX OR NZDINDEX how do those indexes calculated? The methods can reflect global economy and trading situation? I don't know. I'm not trading far future, I am trading now and very near future. How far the USD or NZD can go is a topic for economics and politicians not for traders. I think NZ has a bright future, because they opened the door to China. However if NZD is too strong, China can buy dairy products from other countries. NZ need other industries as well, so they can't accept NZD at very high level in current situation. They don't...
More than just that Zew, dollar will gain against most counterparts across the board. GBP USD is also topped out most definately. Once we start to gain traction on GBP USD downside, NU will have significant followthrough.
  • #5,362
  • May 23, 2014 11:50pm May 23, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting ruffryders
Collapse of USD. Wow, deep thinking. Provided we are looking into early rate hikes possibility in 2015. NZD USD central bank made solid commentry that 8700-8800 is unsustaineable and they will intervene.
Even so that USD rate hike may actually spur the economic turmoil that it is headed for. This so called global recovery has been nothing but a farce. In all honesty, anything can happen any day now causing the US and the dollar to take its fall, that's why I see it risky taking short positions on xxx/USD pairs. The threat of these pairs seeing new heights in contrast to the USD is all too real, its something that many however wouldn't have the courage to admit to.
  • #5,363
  • Edited May 24, 2014 12:10am May 23, 2014 11:54pm | Edited May 24, 2014 12:10am
Quoting zew
{quote} USDINDEX OR NZDINDEX how do those indexes calculated?
Trading in FX PAIRS are actually the derived trading asset from these indexes. NZD/USD is simply NZD put up against USD. Looking at these currencies individually gives us the true movement of how they move as pairs allowing us much more precise and sound analysis as opposed to trying to grasp where the movement on a PAIR chart is actually coming from.

eg. NZDUSD is heading up.
Looking at a pair chart we don't know if its going up due to NZD getting stronger or USD getting weaker, or both. Looking at the currencies separate gives us that information.
I don't see how the RBNZ can hold off threats from a high currency when all is done and said with the DXY taking its dive. Being able to intervene to that magnitude is abit beyond the RBNZ's reach.
  • #5,364
  • May 24, 2014 12:37am May 24, 2014 12:37am
@ruffryders: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article45616.html
  • #5,365
  • May 24, 2014 3:28am May 24, 2014 3:28am
NZDUSD Daily

Three Budda's, Round top, long time resistance, still deflecting down, I wouldn't be a bull
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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DX Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX Daily.png Size: 25 KB

Trend is breaking - tapering ends Oct, strength returns not tanks
  • #5,366
  • May 24, 2014 4:27am May 24, 2014 4:27am
Quoting JimmyC
NZDUSD Daily Three Budda's, Round top, long time resistance, still deflecting down, I wouldn't be a bull {image} DX Daily {image} Trend is breaking - tapering ends Oct, strength returns not tanks
Quote
tapering ends Oct, strength returns not tanks
exactly!
  • #5,367
  • May 24, 2014 12:07pm May 24, 2014 12:07pm
Is this a AB=CD bullish pattern on NZDUSD 4H?


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abcdbullushnzdusd.png Size: 85 KB
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #5,368
  • May 24, 2014 1:06pm May 24, 2014 1:06pm
NZD USD new week will be strongly bearish.
  • #5,369
  • May 25, 2014 11:29am May 25, 2014 11:29am
The high kiwi may prompt the RBNZ intervention with increasing export inflation may affect dairy products. We seen island reversal and last week closing showed that bears are in control currently.
However, in terms of short to mid terms view, I would look to have a correction in the NZDUSD after touching 0.8520 to 0.8600 level. Of course, once there's a breakout from 0.8500, we can highly conclude of double top formed.

Here's my reasoning/charting: http://alternateforexiew.wordpress.c...hat-to-expect/
Knowledge is powerful tool that we can ever have.
  • #5,370
  • May 25, 2014 11:33am May 25, 2014 11:33am
Quoting rikusks
The high kiwi may prompt the RBNZ intervention with increasing export inflation may affect dairy products. We seen island reversal and last week closing showed that bears are in control currently. However, in terms of short to mid terms view, I would look to have a correction in the NZDUSD after touching 0.8520 to 0.8600 level. Of course, once there's a breakout from 0.8500, we can highly conclude of double top formed. Here's my reasoning/charting: http://alternateforexiew.wordpress.c...hat-to-expect/...
good review. well done.
  • #5,371
  • May 25, 2014 2:29pm May 25, 2014 2:29pm
Even that i have my shorts here.Is that a possible abc pattern here on NZD/USD at h4?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd-usd h4 abc pattern.png Size: 134 KB
  • #5,372
  • May 26, 2014 12:03am May 26, 2014 12:03am
Quoting Spik
{quote} So, we got to the high 0,86XXs, my shorts order @0,8691 got hit; 6 lots; TP 0,8531 (1/3), 0,8516 (1/3), 0,8501 (1/3), SL 0,8741. I’m in with 12 lots now, average 0,8711.
Have 2 trades open: 6 lot short @0,8731 and 6 lot short @0,8691;
TP 0,8531 (+200 pips / +160 pips) taken today, remaining thirds 0,8516 and 0,8501 to hit their respective green goals later on. After that time for positioning longs. 0,9000 barrier is humbly waiting.
  • #5,373
  • May 26, 2014 12:16am May 26, 2014 12:16am
RBNZ not to intervene till NZDUSD reaches 0.88+ imho.
  • #5,374
  • May 26, 2014 12:26am May 26, 2014 12:26am
Quoting SaiLyfee
RBNZ not to intervene till NZDUSD reaches 0.88+ imho.
Indeed. If RBNZ was serious about intervention, they wouldn't raise rates in the first place. Hoping for intervention is ill-fated in my opinion and one should trade according to that. Just my 3 cents.
  • #5,375
  • May 26, 2014 12:32am May 26, 2014 12:32am
Quoting Spik
{quote} Indeed. If RBNZ was serious about intervention, they wouldn't raise rates in the first place. Hoping for intervention is ill-fated in my opinion and one should trade according to that.
Thanks for the elaboration, I probably should have added that instead of just stating my opinion without reason. Those have been my thoughts for some time now.
The RBNZ will only intervene when it is most opportune for them to do so. With USD rates set to remain neutral for the rest of the year it is only a matter of time before USD deteriorates. There is nothing in it's economy the way it is going as of the moment to boost confidence in it.
It would only make sense that while NZ is actually taking the lead and starting to increase rates that NZD would make gains against USD.
RBNZ knows this and in all honesty it would make perfect sense for them like you say to raise rates first bringing about higher prices before intervening and selling off currency a higher prices for a healthy profit.

To be able to survive in this game you have to think like the big players..
  • #5,376
  • May 26, 2014 12:35am May 26, 2014 12:35am
Gidday NZ

Yeah not so easy this pair

very fickle.

Got a few longs under water

Would be nice to be back in under 0.85

Get into a long again

No hurry

Daily not bad earn 3%
  • #5,377
  • May 26, 2014 1:41am May 26, 2014 1:41am
what a boring trading season,
all pairs keep moving up and down only with 40ps.
i wonder how long it would last,
it is thus carry trade seems to be more attracting,
such as NZD,AUD,TRY,ZAR and so on.
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #5,378
  • May 26, 2014 1:59am May 26, 2014 1:59am
0.87 The last movement, after the sharp fall below the high probability of 0.85
  • #5,379
  • May 26, 2014 2:31am May 26, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Mr Mao
what a boring trading season, all pairs keep moving up and down only with 40ps. i wonder how long it would last, it is thus carry trade seems to be more attracting, such as NZD,AUD,TRY,ZAR and so on.
Bank holiday in USA & UK.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #5,380
  • May 26, 2014 4:03am May 26, 2014 4:03am
On the daily chart, after having the Deep crab harmonic pattern, a reversal is on-sight. And currently the price is behaving neutralized within an inactive zone. Such a condition is coming to an expectation that having 0.8520 range broken below will result a drop across the market.

http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com/

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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