Do you believe this market is random? | Page 27 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe this market is random?

  • #521
  • Edited 1:34pm May 25, 2014 12:43pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting mikkom
{quote} Can you please advertise your trading somewhere else, this thread is about discussion of market randomness, not your trading. Start a new thread where you can brag with your 2 months of trades.
As for you Mikkon, do you really NOT see the the charts I posted above was a perfect counter argument to "market is completely random and unpredictable"?

I spent about 3 hours went through every respond on the thread and tried not to miss any comment. That's how I respect the traders and their inputs on ff.

Did you ever read people's responds? if you were reading, you would see there were couple LATEST comments here demanded PROOFS to back up one's statement. And THAT was exactly why my charts are up to backup whatever i was saying.

Mikkom, high impact? tell me you are not mentoring anyone with this type attitude. Or you just pissed off seeing something you would never never be able to achieve.

These charts are at where they would belong perfectly. But are you?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #522
  • May 25, 2014 12:47pm May 25, 2014 12:47pm
I really don't know the word "Random" mean.
For me, there is nothing exist without the reason. So many things make the price of a pair of currentcy change, such as :
_ The economy's conditions of two countries.
_ The expectation of the traders.
_ The price of gold, silver and oil in the world.
_ The speculation of some big investment funds.
And the orther reasons, maybe the war, the natural disasters or something like that.
This market is not a gamble. And if you lose your money, don't say that i am luckless )
  • #523
  • May 25, 2014 12:52pm May 25, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Wow Fx, 330 trades in 7 months! Your broker is one happy puppy!
Scalper, average 5 trades per day, 66 days or 3 months.

Is that really surprising?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #524
  • May 25, 2014 12:55pm May 25, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} As for you Mikkon, do you really NOT see the the charts I provided above is a counter argument to "market is completely random and unpredictable"? I spent about 3 hours went through every respond on the thread and tried not to miss any comment. That's how I respect the traders and their inputs on ff. Did you ever read people's responds? if you were reading, you would see there were couple comments here demanded PROOFS to back up one's statement. and THAT was exactly why my charts are up. Mikkom, high impact? tell me you are not mentoring...
Hi fx, a few of us here think you may be using a martingale. Could you tell us how you trade? Is there a system that you use? How do you manage your risk?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #525
  • May 25, 2014 12:59pm May 25, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Newer traders are always jumping up and down about their latest greatest system. You can tell a newbie by this alone. They have tripled their money in three months on 1000:1 leverage. They have not traded through their first market shock yet. They know nothing about unexpected NFP numbers, central bank interventions, or bubbles. Personally I have fun watching them beat their chests online. I do look back after a market shock to see if they are still posting though
If you may jmn5611, please read my lasted respond to PipMeUp.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #526
  • May 25, 2014 12:59pm May 25, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Stephen Hawking is not stupid.
if you get sick and live a severely handicaped life when there was during his time another alternative treatment in my book no matter what you discover in this life you are a very stupid person. if he had health he would of been a far more important contribution that he did. maybe he could of had access to experimental physics and could have arrived at different conclusions.
  • #527
  • Edited 1:50pm May 25, 2014 1:10pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} if you get sick and live a severely handicaped life when there was during his time another alternative treatment in my book no matter what you discover in this life you are a very stupid person. if he had health he would of been a far more important contribution that he did. maybe he could of had access to experimental physics and could have arrived at different conclusions.
Stephen Hawking is not stupid. Last time I checked that you weren't the first person set foot in quantum mechanics. He did.

Does quantum physics sound extraordinary? Chance is your next plant of earth might depend on it. It sounds pretty damn extraordinary and refreshing to me and to all others. Any thoughts? or you want me further proof to you that you stands no ground against Stephen Hawking base on the comments you had lately?

And would you drop the discrimination already?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #528
  • May 25, 2014 2:41pm May 25, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Stephen Hawking is not stupid. Last time I checked that you weren't the first person set foot in quantum mechanics. He did. Does quantum physics sound extraordinary? Chance is your next plant of earth might depend on it. It sounds pretty damn extraordinary and refreshing to me and to all others. Any thoughts? or you want me further proof to you that you stands no ground against Stephen Hawking base on the comments you had lately? And would you drop the discrimination already?
people who do not get it are less of an intelect than you always.
  • #529
  • May 25, 2014 3:15pm May 25, 2014 3:15pm
ive been following thread since beginning. thought i would chime in and try to get this thing back on track. do you believe this market is random?
  • #530
  • May 25, 2014 3:28pm May 25, 2014 3:28pm
Market is not random,
imposible to be random.
They are changing trends and people just following them. BANKS BANKS BANG BANG !!
Neural Network Algorithm and Econophysics
  • #531
  • May 25, 2014 3:40pm May 25, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting mark cooper
ive been following thread since beginning. thought i would chime in and try to get this thing back on track. do you believe this market is random?
Hahah. Yea we did get off coarse a bit. But My answer is No. When ask this same question about stocks most people would say no, but in Forex the same people would say yes. I don't understand why, it's essentially the same buying and selling that moves both market, but I guess it's harder track and assign significance to these forces. So my answer No.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #532
  • May 25, 2014 3:46pm May 25, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} martingale? Is this the best you can come up with? I thought you know better than most the nubs here judging by your responds earlier. I also quote you and agreed with you. I see how it is now. The 3 charts above ONLY to proof that market is predictable using 330 live trade samples with 97% probability. Its powerful as it is, end of discussion. PipMeUp, martingale with 97% over 330 trades? There is none on Internet. Trust me I looked and have been looking. Come on now.
What is that green histogram which peaks exactly at the same time there is a dent in the equity curve if that's not a massive increase of the lot size?
Can you post or link to the result of the trades, grouped by instrument, in pips, that is before any MM applied?

And one more time in this thread, I never said you cannot predict the market. Randomness and predictability and DIFFERENT things.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #533
  • Edited 4:12pm May 25, 2014 3:58pm | Edited 4:12pm
And another thing that I think is random and for the life of me I don't know why. I have noticed on quite a few occassion that when orders come in the late afternoon, they seem to have the biggest effect on the market in terms of providing real support and such. Let me explain say today is Monday and In the evening around 4pm to 5pm EST orders that come in move the market a little, and more than likely the next day they move the market almost like clockwork, normally I don't really care much about orders only the sizes. And this happens with different currencies almost everyday.

But I would like to know, who are the ones behind these huge orders, that can affect the market for an entire day. The market almost becomes a catch 22, where these orders are placed today, and forgotten about, and filled tomorrow. I am just curious who these people are, who could have the money to do this on consistent basis. I haven't been able to figure this out. If anyone have a clue, I know there are some ex bankers here, please help me out with that one.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #534
  • May 25, 2014 4:21pm May 25, 2014 4:21pm
Quoting saneblane
And another thing that I think is random and for the life of me I don't know why. I have noticed on quite a few occassion that when orders come in the late afternoon, they seem to have the biggest effect on the market in terms of providing real support and such. Lrs only the sizes. And this happens with different currencies almost everyday. But I would like to know, who are the ones behind these huge orders, that can affect the market for an entire day. The market almost becomes a catch 22, where these orders are placed today, and forgotten about,...
Sessions overtime.. Maybe london guys put some limit then go to bed, rest of world want to catch their orders
  • #535
  • Edited 4:44pm May 25, 2014 4:29pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting Naokia980
{quote} Sessions overtime.. Maybe london guys put some limit then go to bed, rest of world want to catch their orders

You know I thought about that, and it's things like these why I am convinced that these bank guys are working together. If what you said is true, then the chances of these orders affecting the market consistently the next day wouldn't be so big. Other banks would shoot through them a few times, But from where I am sitting they tippy toe around these levels and even seem to take the opposite direction. I don't know everything It's just a theory that I have based on what I observe, So when I see these in the late afternoon, I wait for the reaction the next day, and sure enough the market responds to them. There are more things I am researching but this is one thing that happens to often to ignore. Who is behind it, I have no clue, I refuse to believe the market is as rigged as it appears. These are the things I observe that make me know that the market is not random, but for the life of me I don't understand why a bank would do this. If it is a bank.

It's not something I need to know really but I am curious. But it kinda look like a dog marking it territory, and the rest of the dogs agree and leave it alone.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #536
  • May 25, 2014 7:01pm May 25, 2014 7:01pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} You know I thought about that, and it's things like these why I am convinced that these bank guys are working together. If what you said is true, then the chances of these orders affecting the market consistently the next day wouldn't be so big. Other banks would shoot through them a few times, But from where I am sitting they tippy toe around these levels and even seem to take the opposite direction. I don't know everything It's just a theory that I have based on what I observe, So when I see these in the late afternoon, I wait for the...
I don't know the answer as such,and ive never worked in a bank ,but In 2010 I was involved with a friend of mine who had grouped together with a number of wealthy British investors who were buying large bundles of properties in florida from the banks.with out boring ever one with the inner detail it was very complex due to the actual ownership rights as most of the defaulted properties dept, had been packaged up and sold on so many times legal holds were pinging back and thorth which made this whole exercise very long winded.anyways back on track.the bundles of properties were generally grouped into 15 to 30 property lots.we spent a lot of time conversing with brokers and banks to convert hard pounds into dollars in reasonable size chunks.both myself and my friend were trading currencies or I should say we were halfway on our fx journey .what surprised us and somewhat of a hint was the accuracy of there futer quote.90 % of the time they would be able to tell us the best price we could get over the next few days.the same best offer from a number of different sources.we would be told they would hold and get us x amount within 3 days ect,very confident on what we could achieve and what we could not.they were very precise on the highs and which highs would not get taken out.

the second thing that was equally as surprising was the deals he was being offered .he was sitting on large sums of cash with Barclays and rbs in times were liquidity was the apple of Eden. the options ,barrier and strikes, that these two banks were offering him almost on a daily basis were extremely tempting . him and I were using there offered strikes ect to trade on spot.during a 9 month period are hit rate was 8 out of ten.

so it does not surprise me that you have noticed certain patterns.
  • #537
  • May 25, 2014 7:35pm May 25, 2014 7:35pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} I don't know the answer as such,and ive never worked in a bank ,but In 2010 I was involved with a friend of mine who had grouped together with a number of wealthy British investors who were buying large bundles of properties in florida from the banks.with out boring ever one with the inner detail it was very complex due to the actual ownership rights as most of the defaulted properties dept, had been packaged up and sold on so many times legal holds were pinging back and thorth which made this whole exercise very long winded.anyways back...

Thanks a lot man that made some sense, If I can sit at home and get this information from retail info, then imagine what banks can do, I was wondering why a bank would put in orders at end of day when liquidity is drying up unless they know something and are confident in price movement and are working together. I have heard that banks use basic tools like retailers, but I still don't think I believe that, I believe that even in a bank there are some traders who have access to more information than others. I am trying to profile the market and orders in significance and what you said made sense. It doesn't explain everything but it help fill in some of the missing picture. From my point of view I believe that a trader in a bank is used as cover for what is going on behind the scenes, I can't put my finger on it and I probably don't need to know more about this, but something just isn't adding up.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #538
  • May 25, 2014 7:54pm May 25, 2014 7:54pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Thanks a lot man that made some sense, If I can sit at home and get this information from retail info, then imagine what banks can do, I was wondering why a bank would put in orders at end of day when liquidity is drying up unless they know something and are confident in price movement and are working together. I have heard that banks use basic tools like retailers, but I still don't think I believe that, I believe that even in a bank there are some traders who have access to more information than others. I am trying to profile the market...
Im certainly not one who sits in the Camp of conspiracy .but i would find it hard to believe that these large banks collude to suite purpose.during the libor fiasco which involved a number of uk banks without excluding the bank of england. Mr king himself had sent notification to barclays to not be so blatent with there overnight fixes.im sure these things are infact a required need to keep or protect our interests.the good thing is as ypu have noticed .these things leave little footprints un noticed to most.
  • #539
  • May 25, 2014 8:05pm May 25, 2014 8:05pm
The thing is .in the libor example manny people were left scratching there heads why the traders in reall terms were left alone.yes 10 or so got sacked but only as mild appeasing scapegoats.the fix was not about the traders gains.that was a biproduct .the fix was for greater reason.and nobody could touch such reason.

This is a lttle of track sembance from your question but serves as an example of your findings
  • #540
  • Edited 9:09pm May 25, 2014 8:10pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting diceman555
The thing is .in the libor example manny people were left scratching there heads why the traders in reall terms were left alone.yes 10 or so got sacked but only as mild appeasing scapegoats.the fix was not about the traders gains.that was a biproduct .the fix was for greater reason.and nobody could touch such reason. This is a lttle of track sembance from your question but serves as an example of your findings

Lol No man I am not a conspiracy theorist either but the orders don't lie. Trust me I don't like to talk to deep about my research but this one had me scratching my head for a while. Anyway, back to the topic at hand, No I don't believe the market is random.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
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